Weekend showers and a look ahead to next week
Showers should gradually move back in over the weekend. Drier and colder for early next week and a potentially interesting weather pattern for late next week
LAST WEEKEND OF JANUARY
We can expect increasing cloud cover for the weekend ahead of a cold front. It won't be as cold Saturday Morning with temperatures in the 40s. Cloudy and low/mid 50s through the afternoon. Some light showers could move in during the afternoon. The better coverage of showers locally should be into Saturday Evening and Night as the cold front approaches. Off and on showers through Saturday Night and into Sunday Morning. It looks like the showers should taper off through Sunday Afternoon. Nothing severe is expected with this front. Projected rainfall amounts from 0.40" - 0.75"
DRIER AND COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK
A brisk northerly wind for Monday. It should be a drier day, but a bit colder with afternoon highs only in the upper 40s. Some snow showers early across the higher terrain of the Smoky Mountains and even the northern Plateau. Partly sunny for the rest of us. Dry and chilly Tuesday with a morning low in the 20s and afternoon high in the low 40s. A little milder by Wednesday with some sun and a southerly flow helping push high temperatures back to the lower 50s.
LATE WEEK RAIN (POSSIBLY WINTRY?)
Another cold front moves our way by next Thursday. This front should have some much colder air behind it. First of all, a better coverage of rain is possible starting late next Thursday with possible amounts between 0.50" to 1" of rain. What we will keep a close eye on is the progression of the cold air and if any moisture will remain locally for the chance of any wintry precipitation. There has not been much agreement with model data. For example, the GFS model favors a slower moving front which allows plentiful moisture as cold air returns. "If" that model is correct, then a chance of a wintry mix or snow could occur Friday. But, the more reliable European Model favors a faster moving system which exits the moisture before the cold air moves in. "If" that model is correct, then mainly rain and nothing wintry on Friday. Each system like this is different and thus the reason why we have to watch it. For now, our forecast has rain late Thursday and into early next Friday Morning and might end as a period of snow or a "mix". Otherwise, turning colder Friday with highs in the lower 40s.
As always, we'll keep an eye on that system!