The weekend outlook, plus a look at a milder & wetter pattern for next week

Sunday Afternoon Showers

A cold start Saturday gives way to a milder afternoon with sunshine. The second half of the weekend looks wetter which will be a theme for next week's weather pattern


A cold morning with temperatures in the 20s. Then, sunny for most of the day with afternoon temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s and a light wind. So, it will feel much nicer than the cloudy skies and wind chill we had on Friday.


A cloudy and chilly start Sunday with temperatures right around the freezing mark. By afternoon, some light showers should begin to creep in from the west. Rainfall amounts should be light (0.25" or less) and mainly scattered. Afternoon temperatures on the cool side only in the 40s. These light showers could stick around through Sunday Night, then taper off.


Monday should again be cloudy. At times, some showers could move back in from the south, but otherwise a cloudy and milder day as afternoon temperatures reach the mid/upper 50s. We could have a better coverage of showers on Tuesday area wide and even warmer as a southerly flow takes over. This could boost afternoon temperatures to as high as 60 to the low 60s.

If the system moving through on Tuesday is fast enough, we could have a drier day Wednesday. Just a tad cooler with highs in the 50s. The brief dry pattern might hold through Thursday with highs again in the 50s. Thursday is also the first day of Winter!


A much wetter pattern could again evolve over a large part of the Southeast by Friday. A better chance for showers locally by Friday Afternoon and Night. Rain chances could increase through Saturday and last into Sunday Christmas Eve. Now, what we will also be closely watching is the extent of cold air trying to move in. This could set up a battle zone upon where areas south get rain, while to the north of this zone a wintry mess.

Longer range forecast data for the past few days has shown differing placements of where this weather "battle zone" might set up. If you follow these models, I am sure that you have noticed changes in model data the past few days. And, no doubt, that will continue. Again, along with model watching, we focus on the evolution of the overall upper pattern. Model data will begin to show consistency and agreement as the week goes on. Saturday locally could be wet with temperatures still reaching the 50s. But, on the other end of Tennessee, colder air could allow for a mix from there and westward back in the Plains States. IF the cold air is slow to move east, then Christmas Eve locally could be mainly wet, but with temperatures in the 40s. By Christmas Eve, that weather battle zone could stretch from Nashville to Memphis. Beyond Sunday and into Christmas Day, there remains even more uncertainty with the location or both any remaining rainfall and cold air. Some models show our region with a cold rain and maybe a mix over the Plateau, while other models show a drier and colder pattern locally. So, a LOT to watch in the days ahead. And, a lot can still change.

As always, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team for updates!

David Glenn

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