Be weather-aware: Strong to severe storms possible this Thursday-UPDATE
Scattered showers and storms continue in a very moisture rich environment. However scattered and below severe limits. Still at anytime through lunch, a pop storm or two possible.
Latest models still want to generate stronger storms this afternoon, between 1-5pm. As they develop, they should push ESE fairly quick, but may need to watch for training of storms (storms develop over and over same area).
- Strong to damaging winds. May not reach severe levels (58mph+) everywhere, but even at 40mph, trees will come down with saturated grounds. Power outages could become likely.
- Heavy rain, excessive runoff and flash flooding. Depending of the speed, isolated flash floods could become dangerous for travel
- Small hail possible.
- Tornado risk is very low.
Most of the storms will come to an end by this evening, HOWEVER, can't rule out more storms overnight into early on Friday, possibly strong to the west.
With these complexes of storms (MCS), things can change in a hurry as they tend to have a mind of their own. We could miss out, or we could see several downed trees. We will monitor things closely.
Reminder, we will be in Facebook live and on our twitter pages through the afternoon.
Most of our area is under a "marginal" risk for severe storms. Closer to I-40, a "slight" risk which is 2 on a scale to 5.
More details in video below.
Best bet between 1-5pm.
Storms will move quick.
Damaging winds over 40-50+mph. (Severe is 58mph or higher)
While winds may stay below severe limits in some storms, winds around 40 will knock down trees and cause power outages due to the saturated ground.
Dangerous lightning and heavy rain.
Excessive runoff on roads, however due to the quickness of the storms, rain totals will be close to 1".