Stay weather alert this Monday afternoon

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Here we go again....maybe.

A cold front, combined with energy from the southwest, will provide the area with showers and possibly strong to severe storms this afternoon.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a "Slight" Risk for the entire area. That is a 2 out of 5. I like to look at that as a 50/50 chance that storms could become severe.

TIMING:

  • Showers could arrive later this AM along the Plateau, maybe a rumble
  • Storms could redevelop around midday and quickly move east. Best bet for most of us is from 2-5pm.
  • By this evening (6/7pm), the storms will have moved east and out of viewing area. Sooner west of I-75.
  • *There is a chance that we see showers/rain at lunch today, and if it hangs around long enough, it *could* keep storms from redeveloping.


SEVERE THREATS:

  • Like this past weekend, damaging winds will be the main threat. Like the last couple days, these storms could be enough to knock a tree down.
  • Quick heavy downpours
  • Lightning and small hail possible.
  • *Note*, breezy during the day today, even IF we don't see storms

MODEL DIFFERENCE:

As has been the case all weekend, forecast models have been hard to trust. Note in the posted pictures, the NAM3k, which is a great model, has storms redeveloping. The HRRR model, which updates by the hour, has very little. The HRRR has been doing poor over the weekend, so this is another reason we are using the one with more storms on it.

It is odd, but if we hope for more rainy weather at lunchtime, then that might help to keep storms away this afternoon, like the HRRR model suggest.
But can't let our guards down.

Like the last couple of days, the storms will be quick movers, so its best to hang back, let them pass and return to your plans. We will be here to watch things if they develop.

At least some good news...after today, storm chances are much lower for the rest of the week.

Brian Smith

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