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Watching storm chances for Thursday Night

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Very warm temperatures continue. But, along with the increasing temperature comes an increasing risk of strong to severe storms Thursday Night.

(IMAGE GALLERY ABOVE: #1. STORM PREDICTION CENTER SEVERE THREAT MAP.....SLIGHT RISK LOCALLY. #2. MAIN THREATS LOCALLY FROM STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT........#3. RPM MODEL SHOWING INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM THREAT LOCALLY LATE THURSDAY EVENING)

WARM AND BREEZY THURSDAY

For Thursday it should not only be warm, but also breezy. A breeze from the south increasing in speed from 15-25 mph and gusty, especially during the afternoon. Overall a mix of clouds and sun again with afternoon highs back in the upper 70s. A few scattered showers and storms are possible Thursday Afternoon, but mainly west. A better chance locally into the evening.

SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY

We will continue to monitor a storm system that will be approaching the Tennessee Valley. As mentioned above, a few showers are possible locally Thursday Afternoon, but it appears the better chances could be later Thursday Night and into early Friday Morning.

The maps above show that the initial severe outlook from the Storm Prediction Center places the better risk of severe storms to our west through Thursday Night. Most of our viewing area is in the Slight to Marginal Risk. But, a higher risk threat "Enhanced to Moderate" over west TN, northern MS and northwest AL. Again, due to the slow nature of this system these levels could change as we approach Thursday Night and Friday.

What we will continue to watch is the speed and strength of the system. A later arrival locally later Thursday Night and into Friday could mean a weakening system and therefore keeping the severe risk lower compared to areas to our west. However, we will just have to watch those trends through the evening. Also, some forecast models are suggesting that a low pressure system could develop along the Gulf Coast Thursday Night and Friday. "If" that happens, then it is possible that the coastal system could keep a lot of energy and precipitation near the coast. Again, that could mean a weaker system locally. For now though, we cannot let down our guard as this is a powerful system. Projected rainfall amounts around 0.50", but of course heavier in a few locations due to heavier rain within storms.

As always, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team for updates in this system

NICE FIRST WEEKEND OF APRIL

No fooling! The first weekend of April looks very nice! Some clouds early Saturday, then becoming partly sunny. It could be cool that morning with temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Then, in the low 70s during the afternoon. Sunday also looks cool early, then partly sunny and mid 70s through the afternoon!

David Glenn

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