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Tracking possible severe storms Thursday night/Friday AM

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7:30 update: StormTrack 9 Senior Meteorologist Bill Race had a quick live update on Facebook from the StormTrack 9 Center.


BRIAN'S AFTERNOON TAKE:

This is proving to be a difficult forecast...now rain, and few storms could arrive much sooner.


We are still under a "slight risk" for storms tonight, meaning a good 25% chance of severe storms. Best chance is overnight. However storms to the south and west could fire quicker and some of that rain could move in sooner. We are also seeing a bit more sunshine, meaning a bit more energy.


WHAT'S NEW AS OF NOON THURSDAY:

1. VERY WINDY afternoon setting up.
2. Rain and storms could arrive by sunset, maybe sooner. Some storms might be strong, but have to wait and see
3. Rain this evening COULD lessen our severe weather chances.

Changes to the info below:


TIMING:

  • This Afternoon: Some sunshine this afternoon could help to re-energize the atmosphere. Will need to watch as storms fire in AL.
  • 6-8pm, rain and embedded storms could move in this evening as noted in the pictures attached. These storms don't look severe, but watching.
  • 10pm-3am, a broken line of storms expected. (10-12, Plateau/Seq V/Nooga/NW GA; 1-3am east of I-75). Rain this evening COULD again help lesson severe chance, but watching.
  • 4am-Sunrise: Cloudy with a few lingering showers, but drying out.


WHAT TO EXPECT:

  • Biggest threat are thunderstorm winds and large hail with any storms that develop. Still a better chance overnight.
  • Tornado threat is low, but some storms could rotate, and an isolated tornado is possible, especially West and SW of Chattanooga.
  • Heavy rain, thunder. Excessive runoff on roads this evening/overnight for some. Rain totals could reach 1"+


UNCERTAINTIES:

  • Will storms along the Gulf coast this afternoon "rob" our moisture and energy? Storms are ongoing, we will see if the hold together.
  • This is a wait and see...

BOTTOM LINE:

We need to watch things develop this afternoon to the west and and SW, and then locally after sunset. While there is a chance we could just see rain and a few rumbles tonight, we can not let our guard down just yet.

As always, you can follow along on twitter:
@stormtrackBrian
@stormtrack9Dave
@stormtrack9Bill

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-Brian Smith

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