Two rounds of rain before Christmas Eve, then turning colder
Heavy rain is possible through Wednesday Morning. After a dry day Thursday, more rain returns for Friday and Saturday. The local weather pattern is still trending colder by Christmas Day.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4PM WEDNESDAY
Heavy rainfall is possible late Tuesday Night and into Wednesday Morning. Therefore, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for a large part of our viewing area. 1"-2" of rain on average, but a few spots south could reach between 2.50"-3.00". That much rain in a short period of time is the reason why the risk of flash flooding exists. Expect slow travel conditions Wednesday Morning.
The heaviest rain could move out by early afternoon, then scattered light showers later into the afternoon.
If you have some last minute shopping plans, then Thursday is probably the last dry day before Christmas Eve and Day. Chilly with low 40s Thursday Morning along with clouds and fog, then a mix of sun and clouds through the afternoon and temperatures in the upper 50s.
NEXT ROUND OF RAIN RETURNS FRIDAY
Our next storm system or "weather maker" returns Friday Afternoon and Evening. Expect a cloudy sky Friday and still mild with afternoon highs near 60. The better coverage of rain should move in later in the day Friday and through Friday Night. Rain should continue into Saturday ahead of a cold front. Some heavy downpours are again possible. However, model data projects amounts that are not quite as heavy as the round for early Wednesday. For example, the GFS Model projects rainfall around 1"-1.25", while the European Model projects just around 0.50". Most of the rain falling through Saturday Afternoon.
CHRISTMAS EVE & DAY OUTLOOK
We continue with our daily updates for Christmas Eve and Day. Our previous post showed how there was a lot of inconsistency in long range forecast models. As of Tuesday, there has been much more consistency, but as always, things could still change. Colder air is still projected to move back in to the Tennessee Valley through Christmas Day. However, unlike earlier model runs, the latest models are trending a lot drier. There could be some higher elevation (Plateau & Blue Ridge) flurries or light snow Sunday Night and Monday Morning. But, other parts of the viewing area look dry. Temperatures on Christmas Eve could top out in the mid/upper 40s. But, a bit colder Christmas Day with temperatures staying mostly in the 30s. That is MUCH different that the past 2 Christmas Days locally that were in the 70s.
Again, things could still change. And, as always, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team to keep you updated!