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Memorial Day forecast: "Should I cancel my weekend plans?"

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This has certainly been the biggest question I have had lately. Sure it's Memorial Day weekend, and with most summer like weekends we will have afternoon scattered storms.
However, Memorial Day and beyond are in question. All due to a likely tropical depression or maybe our first named tropical storm of the year..."Alberto".

So, the question you may have is "Should I cancel my weekend plans"?

NO. But do have a plan B, especially on Memorial Day.


What to expect:

  • Typical summer weather Friday-Saturday. Hot, humid, scattered afternoon & evening storms. Some will contain heavy rain and gusty winds. Many will miss out. Keep eye on radar.
  • Sunday: Scattered to numerous showers and storms, mainly in the afternoon. Numerous "IF" we are influenced by the tropical system that soon.
  • Memorial Day: Plan on off and on showers and storms. This my be the day to cancel...but again depends on track of tropical system.


Rain Totals and Flooding concerns

  • Rain distribution will NOT be equal. On average a good 1-3" of rain expected through Monday. Some more, some less. Isolated flash floods are ALWAYS a risk in the summer.
  • Monday-Thursday may be more of a concern. IF the tropical system moves north, and lingers, rain totals could exceed 4", especially in N GA. While this will not cause HUGE flooding issues, it would certainly lead to river rises and possible flooding.


Severe Weather

  • Again, storms in the summer can be strong, with frequent lightning and gusty winds over 50mph. But isolated. No organized severe weather is expected through the weekend. But any storm could be dangerous. Again, have a plan B.
  • So, What will happen in the Gulf.
  • Right now, a tropical depression is likely to develop sometime on Saturday into Sunday. Models are coming in to better agreement that landfall will take place between New Orleans and Panama City. But this will be a rain maker, not a big wind and wave maker. Once on land, the storm will weaken. The issue is, there is nothing to push it along, and concerns grow as to where the system will linger. Flooding will be a concern for many south of I-20.


BOTTOM LINE:

  • Most of the weekend looks like a typical summer weekend with scattered afternoon storms. As mentioned, have a plan B, but don't cancel your over all plans. Watch Monday as potentially the best day to have to cancel.
  • If you have a trip to the Gulf, it will be messy with heavy rain, rip currents and flooding for Sunday-Monday, but the rest of the week will be typical.


As always, download the WTVC WX App. Track all rain and storms on the radar. Know before you go!

Brian Smith

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