Longer range outlook for the weekend & Thanksgiving Week
The weekend could start soggy and end chilly! Speaking of chilly, it still looks as if some even colder air could move in locally around Thanksgiving Day.
A cold front approaches the Tennessee Valley during the day Saturday. This should increase the coverage of showers locally, especially late morning and into the afternoon. At this time, there does not appear to be a severe threat with this front. Also, rainfall amounts do not appear to be heavy. Forecast model rainfall projections range from 0.25"-0.50" Saturday Afternoon and Evening.
Temperatures should be seasonable for mid to late November with lower 60s Saturday Afternoon with the showers. But, much colder air moves in later Saturday Night.
TURNING COLDER SUNDAY
As mentioned above, much colder air should move in behind that cold front late Saturday Night and into Sunday. This should help clear the sky and allow for plenty of sunshine for most of the day Sunday. However, it could be quite chilly with morning temperatures dipping to the mid/upper 30s and afternoon highs only reaching the upper 40s to near 50. Along with that will be a brisk northerly breeze adding a wind chill. Temperatures late Sunday Night and into Monday Morning could dip into the upper 20s to near 30.
Our earlier posts and weathercasts have kept you updated on the possibility of even colder air moving in during the Thanksgiving Week.
Monday and Tuesday looks dry. Chilly Monday with highs only around 50 after that cold morning in the upper 20s to near 30. Partly sunny with mid/upper 50s Tuesday.
As another cold front approaches Wednesday, there are some disagreements in the longer range forecast models with possible rain chances for the big travel day. For now, I will keep a shower chance as a possibility on Wednesday although we will keep an eye on the trends in the days ahead.
The passage of a cold front could allow for even colder air to settle in just in time for Thanksgiving Morning. The GFS model projects a high and low on Thanksgiving of 47 and 33. The European Model projects a Thanksgiving high and low of 47 and 34. So, some agreement there. Also, both models project Thanksgiving Day to be dry as the chill settles in.
There is the possibility that rain could move in during the day on Black Friday. So, possibly some soggy shopping. But, that is still a long way off and we will continue to watch the trends!
As always, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team for updates!