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"Enhanced/Moderate" severe weather threat for Wednesday

Moderate and Enhanced Risk

Here we go again.

This spring has no doubt been active, and another powerful storm system has its eyes set on the SE. Wednesday could be active, and has the potential to be more significant than the last few rounds of storms we've had. However some questions remain. Like the last two systems, clouds and rain during the day lessened our chance of storms in the evening. This was the case yesterday. This could happen tomorrow too, however, if our atmosphere can recover tomorrow(afternoon sunshine) we will have the threat for all modes of severe weather.

Because of this threat, the Storm Prediction Center as noted in the pictures, has the entire area under an "enhanced" risk for severe storms (3 on a scale of 5). A "moderate" risk for most of Central GA. (4 out of 5). No doubt GA could see a more significant severe weather outbreak.

Below are some thoughts, and timing estimates. Plus note pictures that include early looks at radar images. We are a day away and things will change some.


Timing:

  • Potential for 2 rounds. One after sunrise-noon (pictured) one later in the afternoon (pictured)
  • 1st round is more likely to not be as strong, but could contain hail. Best chances in North Central and North East GA and south with arrival time after sunrise.
  • 2nd round late afternoon into the evening(5-10mpm). This would be a broken line of strong storms coming out of Central TN and AL moving east. (pictured)
  • Can't rule out storms popping up at any time in the afternoon if we see enough sunshine.
  • Storms should be done by 10pm.
  • These storms could have a major impact on ball practice, games and possibly church.


What we could expect: (please note, this is more of worst case. As mentioned above, morning rain/clouds could have a big impact.)

  • The morning storms, if strong enough, could have gusty winds and hail, especially in North GA to Atlanta. These storms should end by late morning or early afternoon.
  • Clearing should begin from west to east by late morning, and if so, we quickly warm to the 70s to near 80. Also, becoming more humid and breezy.
  • The storms that develop in the afternoon would quickly become severe with all modes of severe weather possible. Damaging winds(50mph+) & hail(quarter size+) will be the biggest threats, however some of the storms could rotate, leading to an isolated tornado threat.
  • The potential is there for a better chance of a few tornadoes than any system so far this season. Its a potential, but worth mentioning. Less of a chance east of I-75 into the mountains.
  • In central GA, for those traveling, no doubt a significant severe weather day is likely. This includes Atlanta to Augusta, GA.


Rain/Flooding.

  • This greatly depends on the morning rain/storms. Seems the heaviest rain would stay SE of us, however we do have a saturated ground. Something to watch.
  • Afternoon storms will drop heavy rain, but should move quickly.


Uncertainties

  • Will we clear out from the morning rain/storms?
  • Will we have enough moisture for storms to work with?
  • All other ingredients are there. The big one is if we clear out. Basically if we see late morning and early afternoon sunshine here or just west, expect storms.


Bottom line:

We have seen a similar set up, only to not pan out because of lingering clouds or rain. Yes, this could happen, however I feel there is a BETTER chance we do clear out and see storms. And this time, isolated tornadoes is a threat. It only takes one to change lives forever. Take this beautiful Tuesday to think, be prepared and be ready for storms on Wednesday. IF schools let out, as they seem to in the past, make sure kids are safe, know what to do, and are aware. To often kids are home alone, teens are driving around, or in homes not as strong. Seems the better chance of storms may be after school is out.

The details will change. The timing will too, so make sure you have current information. We will update often. Social media post, especially from random folks, gets old or over hyped quickly. There is a potential, but no need to scare for clicks. Be careful what you share.

You can always follow along on twitter and download our WTVC WX App. too.

@stormtrackBrian
@stormtrack9Dave
@Stormtrack9Bill

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