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Dry until the weekend, plus a long range outlook

Thursday Afternoon Temps

Colder than average temperatures, but dry through the start of the weekend. Milder and wetter weather by late weekend and early next week. Plus a longer range forecast model outlook toward Christmas

DRY AND CHILL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

The cold upper level flow from the northwest should continue to dominate the weather pattern across the Tennessee Valley through Saturday Morning. We should stay mainly dry, but still a bit chilly. Upper 20s to lower 30s to start the day Thursday, then upper 40s by afternoon. A few spots south could reach near 50 Thursday Afternoon, but higher elevated locations only in the lower 40s. A little colder Thursday Night as temperatures by Friday Morning could drop into the mid/upper 20s. The rest of Friday looks dry and partly sunny. However, Friday also looks a little colder with afternoon highs in the low/mid 40s (30s local mountains). This chill continues through Friday Night and Saturday Morning with temperatures dipping into the 20s again.

MILDER AND WETTER BY LATE WEEKEND

After a cold start Saturday, expect some early day sun, then increasing cloud cover. Afternoon temperatures should reach the upper 40s to lower 50s. With the cloud cover Saturday Night, it probably won't be as cold as the previous nights with low temperatures in the mid/upper 30s. Sunday looks cloudy and cool with highs nearing 50. But, as the day progresses, some showers should move in. This does not appear to be a system that will provide heavy rain or severe weather. Forecast model guidance keeps rainfall amounts light with amounts around 0.25". Some of the showers could linger into Monday Morning.

MILDER PATTERN NEXT WEEK

I do see a bit of a break from this chilly pattern that we have had lately. Most of next week should exhibit ABOVE average temperatures with afternoon highs mostly in the mid 50s and morning lows staying above freezing. Some light rain is again possible Tuesday, then mainly a dry and mild pattern by midweek. By late week, some showers could return.

CHRISTMAS OUTLOOK?

It is still over 10 days away, so forecast model data will change quite a bit. However, the overall weather pattern across the eastern half of the country including the Southeast could possibly see a return to a colder than normal pattern by Christmas Eve/Day and the week to follow. So, after a break from the chill next week, it could come roaring back for Christmas week.

If you see the maps above, just one of the forecast model runs (GFS) shows some moisture within that cold pattern. So, you might be already seeing some long range forecasts that look "interesting" and "wintry". However, these forecast models can and do often change when it is over 10 days out. But, with the possibility of a colder weather pattern, it does mean that we have to keep an eye on things. And, as always, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team for updates in the days leading up to Christmas Eve and Day!

David Glenn

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