Strong storms possible Monday evening


Our active March continues this afternoon and tonight with more storms possible. A potent system will move out of AK/MO this afternoon into north Tennessee/Ohio Valley. The southern extent of this system could bring stronger storms our way tonight with large hail and gusty winds. While we are on the edge of the more significant risk, we still need to watch these storms as they evolve and shift east. With gusty south winds, we should easily climb to the mid and a few upper 70s along with an increase in moisture.

Because of this threat, the Storm Prediction Center has put the central and western half of the viewing area in a "Slight" risk. I often say, this is a good 50/50 chance that any storm could be severe. Higher risk just west as noted in the pictures. Eastern parts of our viewing area are in a "marginal" risk as we hope storms weaken. This will likely NOT be one line of storms, but instead a few clusters through the night into the AM.

What Time?

  • Most of the day will be dry, but breezy. Some showers are possible anytime, but I don't see much until after 4pm.
  • Scattered storms after 4/5pm, as some could be strong.
  • 1st of 2-3 lines of storms could come through around 7-10pm
  • 2nd line of storms 12am-2am.
  • Times of course are estimates. Will need to watch the storms develop west first.

What to expect:

  • All modes of severe weather to the west of us. As these storms evolve, our threat becomes more from strong winds and large hail.
  • The first round of scattered storms may contain hail. These storms are this evening, but scattered.
  • More of an isolated wind threat with broken lines of storms tonight/overnight. (7-10pm, 12-2am)
  • The tornado threat is very low as of now.
  • Flooding is not a big threat, but excessive runoff likely with heavy rain at times tonight.

How much rain:

  • Most areas could see a good 3/4" to over 1" of rain. We need it.
  • Excessive runoff is possible during the heavy rain, but a flood threat is not likely

When is it done?

  • After the last round of storms early on Tuesday morning, we should be fine. Few lingering showers Tuesday AM, then sunshine returns.
  • More storms possible on Thursday night.

Bottom Line:

We are fine for most of your Monday, at least through early afternoon. We will watch the storms develop by 4/5pm as that could have an impact on the drive home or outdoor games/practice. Still looks like the majority of rain/storms will be later this evening and tonight. As mentioned, they could weaken as they push east, but can't let our guard down. As we have seen lately, hail and gusty winds could still cause damage.

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