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Forecast

Tuesday:  Partly sunny, hot and humid.  A chance for some pop up afternoon & evening t-showers.  An afternoon high in the low 90s (80s mountains).  A southwest wind at 5-10mph.


Tuesday Night:  A few t-showers are possible during the night.  Partly ... More...
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StormTrack9 Blog

A Hot & Humid Week Ahead

09/01/14

It may be September and the start of "Meteorological Autumn", but Summer temperatures should stick around for the first week of September!

A few isolated evening t-showers, otherwise partly cloudy and near 70 overnight.

The weather pattern for the rest of the work week looks hot and humid.  Partly sunny each day with daily chances for afternoon and evening pop up t-showers.  Afternoon highs in the low 90s through Friday.

David Glenn




9 Years Later: My Look Back At Hurricane Katrina

08/28/14

At times it feels like it's been longer, but other times it feels like yesterday. Friday marks the 9th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. On August 29, 2005 I was serving as Chief Meteorologist at WPMI-TV Mobile/Pensacola. We were in the midst of our wall to wall coverage of the storm that began 2 days earlier. Katrina would be the third major hurricane to arrive near our doorstep during one calendar year. Hurricane Ivan pounded our local coastline the September before and Hurricane Dennis rubbed salt in Ivan's wounds 2 months prior to Katrina. Of all the evacuation plans executed before, this one was the biggest.

My wife and children evacuated for the third time in less than a year. I sent them on their way the day before Katrina struck to seek refuge at my in-laws in Ft Payne, AL. As a meteorologist, I had some long hours ahead of me and I needed as much time as possible to prep our house and then be ready for the LONG work day(s) ahead. Having my family evacuated was a huge relief. I knew they were safe, and with my house secured with the storm shutters, I could then focus squarely on my job. Katrina was no surprise, we saw it coming and knew that once the storm passed over the Gulf Loop Current, its strength would grow. Mobile was not going to be the point of landfall, but it was going to be on the dangerous east side of the hurricane which would bring an incredible storm surge and high wind.

Sunday, August 28, our broadcast schedule required each meteorologist to work a 12 hour shift. We had an experienced staff with meteorologists Jim Loznicka and Kelly Foster.  Together, we had all been through several tropical storm and hurricane landfalls. So, I had a whole 1/2 day on the air, the other 12 hours spent prepping for the storm, forecasting, and trying to catch a nap. Most of that day was sunny and hot with intermittent periods of thunderstorms. To their credit, most Mobilians wasted no time getting ready for Katrina's visit. By sundown, all preparations came to a end and the worst of Katrina was nearing our doorstep. It was one of those days where I hoped my forecast would be wrong. The forecast included a 10-14 ft storm surge with wind exceeding 100mph.

Monday, August 29th is a day I will never forget. Katrina made the first landfall along the coastal region of Louisiana around 6am and then the second landfall along the Louisiana/Mississippi border. Mobile never noticed the difference. Since before 6am and through mid afternoon, the pounding wind and rain was being unleashed. All the while, the waters of Mobile Bay were being pushed into the city streets. The resulting storm surge brought a near record level of 13ft of water. Our broadcast plans were interrupted at about 9am when the station's generator caught on fire. This resulted in complete failure of the electrical system. During hurricane broadcasts, we would simulcast with area radio stations because so many people would lose power during the storm. With no power at the television building, we had to drive toward downtown to the radio building to continue our broadcasts. It was true "white knuckle" driving for a while with debris covered roads, and yet more airborne debris flying around.

We spent the next 13 hours on the radio through midnight before a shift change. By midnight, the storm had passed and all that was left was DARKNESS. I attempted to drive home and what would normally be a 10 minute drive, took nearly an hour. Debris covered roads and no street lights made for a trip I will never forget. Once I got home, I was relieved that the house was intact except for the shingles sheared off the roof. I felt fortunate, because so many people were left homeless along the Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana coast.

There are certain levels of exhaustion and emotion that I found myself going through before and after the storm. There is the physical exhaustion of boarding up and preparing your home while balancing the hours of my job which were quite demanding. Then, there is the mental exhaustion because of the anxiety building up before and during the storm. Emotional exhaustion would rise and fall before, during and after the storm. Telling your family goodbye and seeing your children leave with tears in their eyes because Dad has to stay behind...that's not easy. Seeing members of your community lose everything is tough to watch as you sit in a house that is still standing. And, it was not just the local community of Mobile. Areas to the west along the Mississippi and Louisiana coast saw total devastation. Many of those people migrated east toward Mobile for help. What still haunts me to this day are the dazed and lost expressions on their faces. They needed food, water and shelter. They had reached the point of desperation. Fortunately, the Mobile community provided their needs.

There were long lines at grocery stores, and no gasoline anywhere for miles. Power was not restored for days, and trust me it was VERY hot those days after Katrina.
State and local officials in Alabama responded immediately and our region was spared the post storm issues that occurred to our west in Louisiana. I witnessed that aspect like many of you did via television reports. It was a totally different type of damage level with levee flooding in New Orleans than the quick in and out storm surge flooding we had on the Alabama coast. Their flooding would last much longer. The US Coast Guard headquarters for the Gulf region is in Mobile. They were flying rescue missions in MS and LA nonstop for days even during the storm. The sound of the helicopters filled the skies constantly.

During the 23 years of my career in meteorology, I hope I never see another year like 2004-2005. Ivan, Dennis and Katrina was enough experience for a lifetime. Despite the devastation I was thankful to be a part of a community getting back on its feet. I saw the worst in mother nature, but the best in mankind.

As I write this now during the heart of the 2014 hurricane season, I can say with 110% certainty, that I am still glad to be back home in the Tennessee Valley!

David Glenn




Hot Temperatures Sticking Around......Weekend T-Showers Returning

08/27/14

Temperatures should remain above seasonal levels through the end of the week and into the Labor Day weekend.  Scattered t-showers should return just in time for the weekend as well.

Another warm night ahead under a fair sky.  Overnight temperatures should eventually drop into the mid/upper 60s.

Sunny to partly sunny and hot again Thursday with afternoon highs in the low 90s.  There is a slight chance for a few late day pop up t-showers, especially over the Blue Ridge Mtns and north.  Sunny to partly sunny again Friday with afternoon highs averaging in the low/mid 90s.  So, another hot evening for high school football games Friday.

The weekend still looks hot, but also more humid.  There will be the chance for some scattered t-showers developing Saturday afternoon and evening.  A better chance for t-showers on Sunday.  By Labor Day, mainly some afternoon t-showers but otherwise partly sunny.  Daily highs through the holiday weekend should remain near 90 and muggy mornings near 70.

David Glenn




Hot Afternoons Through Friday

08/26/14

Typical August heat will continue locally through the end of the work week.  Humidity levels will be back on the rise as well allowing for the return of scattered t-showers by the time the Labor Day weekend arrives.

Overall, a quiet weather pattern through Thursday with comfortable mornings in the 60s, but hot afternoons in the 90s.

The humidity should remain just below normal seasonal levels through Wednesday, then slowly rise by late week and the weekend.  This could result in a slight chance for pop up t-showers Thursday and Friday.  However, better t-shower chances could occur Saturday afternoon and evening, then a better chance on Sunday. 

Hot and quite humid through the start of the holiday weekend with daily highs Saturday and Sunday near 90 and muggy morning lows in the low 70s.

David Glenn




Comfortable Mornings, But Hot Afternoons This Week

08/25/14

A little more comfortable through Monday night as overnight temperatures drop into the mid 60s.  Sunny, but not as humid Tuesday with an afternoon high in the upper 80s to near 90.  Comfortable again Tuesday night with mid 60s, then sunny and lower humidity again Wednesday with a high in the low 90s.

The dry trend should continue through Thursday with afternoon highs in the low/mid 90s under a partly sunny sky.  Humidity levels continue to rise through late week and this should be followed by increasing chances for afternoon t-showers beginning Friday and into the weekend.

Expect scattered t-showers to be possible both Saturday and Sunday afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 and quite humid as well.  So, please keep this in mind as you make your holiday weekend outdoor plans!

David Glenn




A Very Hot & Humid Weekend.......Some Afternoon Storms Possible!

08/22/14

This should be one of the hottest weekends of the season so far.  It's important to remember to stay safe during these extreme temperatures.  Stay hydrated and take numerous breaks from outdoor activities.  Also be aware of the chance for scattered afternoon storms..."when the thunder roars, go indoors".

Saturday looks very hot and humid again under a sunny to partly sunny sky. Afternoon highs in the mid/upper 90s and a Heat Index from 100-105 possible. Please keep in mind that there is the chance for some scattered thunderstorms popping up during the afternoon and early evening.

Hot and humid again for Sunday with mid 90s and a Heat Index around 100. There will be a slightly better chance for thunderstorms popping up during the afternoon and evening.  As hot as temperatures will be, this could allow for some of the afternoon storms to be strong.

Early next week does not look quite as hot as temperatures ease back to the low 90s and morning lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. 

David Glenn




Very Hot & Humid Through The Weekend

08/21/14

The hottest days of the Summer so far could occur Friday through Sunday.

A very hot and humid pattern with daily highs in the mid/upper 90s and the Heat Index above 100 each afternoon.  The chances for any isolated afternoon & evening storms remains low Friday.  Over the weekend, the chance for some of those afternoon and evening storms popping up does increase just a little bit, especially Sunday.  So, be aware of that chance as you plan your weekend outdoor activities.

David Glenn




Here Comes The Heat!

08/19/14

Most of this Summer we have enjoyed below normal temperatures, but that is about to change as a lengthy stretch of days in the mid/upper 90s can be expected.

Some passing t-showers are possible Tuesday Night, but otherwise partly cloudy and muggy with a low in the low 70s.

A hot and humid pattern continues to build in across the Tennessee Valley through late week and the weekend.  Low 90s for Wednesday with a Heat Index in the upper 90s.  Morning clouds should give way to a partly sunny sky and still the chance for a scattered t-shower Wednesday afternoon.

It gets even hotter in the days ahead with mid to even upper 90s possible Thursday and through the weekend.  Heat Index values could climb above 100 each day.  There will still be the chance for a few isolated afternoon and evening t-showers Thursday through Saturday, but the chances even less by late weekend and early next week.

The mid to upper 90s could continue into next week as well.

David Glenn




August Heat & Humidity Settles In

08/18/14

After a wet start to the week, a hot pattern should begin to settle in for mid week and into the weekend.

Off and on periods of showers and storms are still possible Monday night as a disturbance moves by to our south.  Patchy fog through the night as well.  By Tuesday, expect some early morning cloud cover and even an isolated shower, then becoming partly sunny with an afternoon high in the upper 80s.  Some pop up t-showers could occur Tuesday afternoon, but fewer in number than what occurred Monday.  Wednesday should also have the chance for some pop up afternoon t-showers, otherwise a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures heating up into the low 90s.

Temperatures should heat up even more by Thursday and Friday as afternoon highs could reach the mid 90s.  Still a few pop up afternoon showers possible, but fewer in number as each day passes by. 

The upcoming weekend looks like a text book one for late August.  Heat, humidity and just slight chances for a pop up t-shower.  High temperatures in the low/mid 90s along with muggy morning lows in the low 70s.

David Glenn




A Hot Weekend.....Some T-Showers Possible Sunday

08/15/14

A nice start to the weekend with another comfortable night ahead as temperatures drop into the low 60s under a fair sky by Saturday morning.  Saturday should be hotter and a little more humid.  Expect a partly sunny sky and a high near 90.  Muggy Saturday night with a low in the upper 60s.

Sunday should be even more humid along with a mix of clouds and sun.  Temperatures should reach near 90 by the afternoon.  Scattered afternoon and evening t-showers are possible as well.  A better chance for t-showers through Sunday night and into Monday.

The rest of next week looks more typical of August with heat, humidity and the daily chance for a pop up t-showers.  Afternoon highs in the low 90s, but mid 90s by late week.  Muggy mornings in the low 70s.

David Glenn




Humidity Levels Rising Through The Weekend

08/14/14

Another comfortable night can be expected Thursday Night as low humidity levels will continue through Friday.  Temperatures by Friday morning should drop into the lower 60s with some areas away from the city in the 50s.

Sunny again Friday but a little hotter through the afternoon as temperatures climb into the upper 80s.  The upcoming weekend looks a little more humid both days under partly sunny skies.  Afternoon highs around 90 both Saturday and Sunday.  There is a slight chance for a few afternoon pop up t-showers Sunday.

The better t-shower chances are possible next Monday.  Overall, next week looks more typical of mid August with heat, humidity and daily pop up t-shower chances.  Highs around 90 and muggy mornings near 70.

David Glenn




Nice Weather Through The Start Of The Weekend

08/13/14

The lower humidity levels should continue through Friday.  This means another comfortable night ahead with low 60s by Thursday morning and even some areas in the upper 50s.  Sunny with mid to upper 80s Thursday afternoon.

Friday again should be sunny to partly sunny and dry with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 after another comfortable morning in the low 60s.

Humidity levels should begin to rise through the weekend.  Lower 90s and partly sunny Saturday afternoon.  More humid and around 90 Sunday along with a slight chance for an afternoon t-shower.

Normal August heat and humidity along with better chances for afternoon t-showers should return for Monday and the early part of next week.

David Glenn




Comfortable Mornings Ahead

08/12/14

A few t-showers through early Tuesday evening as a cool front moves through.  Then, a clearing sky and comfortable overnight as low temperatures drop into the low/mid 60s.

A beautiful day Wednesday with sunshine and much lower humidity.  High temperatures only in the low/mid 80s (upper 70s local mountains).  Clear Wednesday Night with lows in the low 60s and even some 50s possible away from the city.  Sunshine and low humidity again Thursday with mid 80s by afternoon.

A dry pattern through the end of the work week and the start of the weekend.  Afternoon temperatures should return to around 90 by the weekend with morning lows in the 60s.  Only a slight chance for a pop up shower Sunday, but the best t-shower chances should be on Monday.

David Glenn




Lower Humidity Is On The Way

08/11/14

Some occasional showers/t-showers will still be possible through Monday Night.  Otherwise cloudy and muggy with a low near 70.

A cool front should move through the Tennessee Valley Tuesday.  This could still help produce some scattered t-showers through the afternoon with highs in the upper 80s.  Much drier air moves in behind the front which should clear the sky Tuesday night along with a comfortable low in the low/mid 60s.

A beautiful day Wednesday with sunshine and low humidity with a high in the mid 80s.  Very comfortable again Wednesday night with a low near 60 in the city and even some 50s possible away from the city.  These comfortable mornings should continue through Friday with lows in the 60s.  Dry and partly sunny afternoons with highs in the 80s Thursday and Friday.

Some pop up variety t-showers could return over the weekend, but the chances/coverage remains low.  A better t-shower chance could develop by Monday.  High temperatures over the weekend should average around 90.

David Glenn




Unsettled Weather Pattern Through The Weekend

08/08/14

Off and on periods of showers and storms are possible tonight and again through the weekend. This unsettled weather pattern is due to a stalled front.

There will be periodic breaks from the showers/t-showers during the weekend. So, some sun will peek through the clouds from time to time. However, for your outdoor plans expect some interruptions from time to time as well as the t-showers move through. Please be aware that some slow moving t-showers could produce heavy rainfall.  Also, please remember lightning safety..."when the thunder roars, head indoors".

Very humid throughout the weekend with daily highs in the upper 80s and morning lows in the low 70s. By early next week, some drier air begins to move in which should lower the chance for t-showers.

David Glenn




T-Shower Chances Increasing By Late Week

08/06/14

Temperature and humidity levels will continue to rise through Thursday.  A low Wednesday Night only in the upper 60s to near 70.  Partly sunny, hot and humid Thursday with a high in the low/mid 90s.  The Heat Index could climb close to 100 by afternoon.  Only a small chance for a pop up late day t-shower.

Shower and storm chances should increase for Friday and Saturday as a cool front stalls over the Tennessee Valley.  This means more cloud cover along with off and on periods of showers and storms.  Daily highs in the upper 80s with muggy morning lows in the low 70s.

A little more sun and fewer t-showers Sunday with a high near 90.  A typical August weather pattern resumes for next week with normal heat and humidity levels.  Daily highs near 90 and morning lows near 70.  Partly sunny days along with a few pop up t-showers each afternoon and evening.

David Glenn




Afternoons Heating Up......Unsettled Start To The Weekend

08/05/14

Afternoon temperatures are really starting to heat up! That trend should continue Wednesday. Expect another comfortable night with lows in the mid 60s. Sunny, to partly sunny Wednesday and just a little more humid. Afternoon temperatures should climb into the low 90s. There is also the chance for some pop up afternoon and evening t-showers.

A similar trend through Thursday with highs again around 90 and some pop up late day t-showers. By Friday and the weekend, a cool front should stall out across the Tennessee Valley. This should set up an unsettled pattern for Friday through Monday. "Unsettled" meaning that periods of showers and t-storms can be expected from time to time and not just the afternoon/evening variety. Otherwise more clouds than sun each afternoon with highs in the upper 80s.

David Glenn




Warming On Up

unset

Heading through the next few days, temperatures will be on the rise as we see a return to a more 'normal' summer time pattern. Highs today will be in the upper 80s with a bit more sunshine and partly cloudy skies. Still a slight chance for showers although we see somewhat better chances return Monday and Tuesday.

Beyond the beginning of the week highs will be in the low 90s with mostly sunny skies on Wednesday and a bit more humidity. Not a lot, but enough to make it feel like the mid 90s. Small rain chances return Thursday and into the weekend. Temperatures should start to subside back into the upper 80s by next weekend.

Jason Disharoon




Record Low Temperature Possible Wednesday Morning

07/30/14

Watching the temperature this morning.  The record low is 58 degrees on Wednesday.  At 6 am ET the official temperature is 59 degrees.  Bill Race.




Taste of Fall!

07/29/14

As we wrap up July and turn our eyes towards August, we enter the dog days of Summer. Except that someone forgot to hand Mother nature the memo!

Humidity will remain low through the next several days as high pressure dominates the weather pattern across the majority of the Eastern United States. As the high is off to the west near Missouri, we are on it's front side, so to speak. This is what gave us the breezy northerly winds Monday and Tuesday. Those winds won't be as blustery the remainder of the week, but will continue from the north on Wednesday helping to keep the humidity low.

As we head into the back half of the week, the high pressure system will gradually weaken and we will notice the pattern will shift from the northwest (lower humidity and cooler temps) to the southwest (higher humidity and warmer temps). This shift won't happen all at once, but by the weekend you will definitely feel a difference. The high is helping to keep us dry right now, but once it is gone we can expect weak disturbances to once again roll through the Southeast and increase our rain chances. Particularly as we head into Saturday and Sunday.

So enjoy the taste of fall while you can! You have another day or so of lower humidity before summer returns. Temperatures will stay in the mid 80s through the weekend, but that humidity factored in will make it feel more like the lower 90s and by Monday, the mercury itself will be in the lower 90s across the region with heat index values creeping into the middle 90s.

(Jason Disharoon)




Radar Updates Early Monday Morning

07/28/14

3:39 am:  Radar Update: Showers/Storms still moving SE. No Warnings or Watches are in effect.  Bill Race.  http://t.co/C2atOtMBVG

3:18 am: Radar Update: Showers/Storms moving Southeast. No Warnings at this time. Bill Race. http://t.co/zIircJSdf5




Hotter Weekend Temperatures....Some Heat Relief Next Week

07/25/14

This last weekend of July should be a hot one! Still comfortable Friday night with a fair sky and lows in the mid/upper 60s. Sunny and hotter Saturday with a high in the low 90s.  A few clouds and muggy Saturday night with a low in the low 70s.

Hotter and more humid Sunday with afternoon highs in the mid 90s. Some scattered t-showers are possible Sunday afternoon. A better shower chance Sunday night and into Monday morning. A few strong t-storms are possible during that time as a cold front approaches. The Storm Prediction Center has a "Slight Risk" of severe storms possible locally Sunday night and into early Monday.

Another round of cooler air should move in by next Tuesday. Afternoon highs should ease back to the low/mid 80s with comfortable morning lows in the low/mid 60s. Nice temperatures to end July!

David Glenn




Temperatures Heating Up As We Head Into The Weekend

07/24/14

Temperatures should be a little more comfortable Thursday Night as drier air moves in. Expect a low in the 60s. Sunshine throughout the day Friday with an afternoon high in the upper 80s. Sunny to partly sunny on Saturday. A great start to the weekend with an afternoon high around 90.

Scattered t-showers could return late Sunday as another cold front moves in. The best chance should be late afternoon and evening. It should still be hot Sunday with a high in the low 90s with a mix of clouds and sun. Scattered t-showers through Sunday Night and Monday Morning. This should be followed by drier and much cooler air for Tuesday and Wednesday as high temperatures ease back into the low/mid 80s and comfortable morning lows in the low 60s.

David Glenn




Sunny Days Ahead & Possibly Cooler Again Next Week

07/23/14

Occasional showers & t-showers will be possible both Wednesday evening and even during the overnight hours. Otherwise cloudy and muggy with a low near 70.

As a cool front moves through the Tennessee Valley Thursday, scattered t-showers will again be possible. The coverage of showers and t-showers should diminish late day and into the evening hours.

More sunshine and slightly lower humidity for Friday and Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. Great weather for outdoor plans to begin the weekend. By Sunday, some late day t-showers will be possible and could linger into Monday.

Another round of drier and much cooler air could move in by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. This could drop high temperatures to only the lower 80s and morning lows in the low 60s. This could continue the trend of cooler temperatures every two weeks that we have enjoyed for most of July.

David Glenn




Scattered T-Showers Through Thursday, But Drier To Begin The Weekend

07/22/14

Muggy with some scattered showers/t-showers at times Tuesday evening, then partly cloudy with a low near 70. The risk of severe weather remains low even through Wednesday and Thursday.

A humid weather pattern with daily rounds of scattered showers and t-showers can still be expected again for Wednesday and Thursday. Highs both days in the upper 80s after morning lows near 70.

A drier pattern for Friday and Saturday. More sunshine means hotter afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Scattered t-showers could return late Sunday and into Monday. Another round of slightly cooler air possible next week as afternoon highs ease back to the mid 80s and drier by next Tuesday and Wednesday.

David Glenn




Unsettled Weather Pattern Through Midweek

07/21/14

A very humid and unsettled weather pattern should continue through midweek.

This means that these periods of showers and t-showers should continue off and on through Wednesday. There will be periodic breaks each day along with a mix of clouds and sun. High temperatures remaining below normal for late July in the mid/upper 80s.

By late week, the coverage of showers and t-showers drops off, while temperatures heat up. Highs approaching 90 by Friday and again on Saturday with more sunshine.

David Glenn




Soggy Weekend Start.....90s Return Next Week!

07/18/14

High temperatures Friday afternoon only made it to the low 70s (60s mountains). Checking historical weather stats, the Record low "high" temperature for Friday was 80 from 1973.  But, even older weather records for Chattanooga show 77 on July 18, 1918. So, the 2014 version of July 18th could have a new Record low "high". Keep in mind that the "normal" low temperature for today is 70. So, we were barely above that.

The wet start to the weekend continues through Saturday with off and on periods of rain. Rain could be heavy at times tonight and Saturday as well. Rainfall amounts could exceed an inch in many local areas, but even climb to near 2" in isolated areas. High temperatures on Saturday should still be below normal in the upper 70s. The risk of severe weather remains low.

By Sunday, the coverage of showers should break up a bit. A mix of clouds and even some sun at times. But, a scattering of showers and thunderstorms is still possible being most widespread during the afternoon. High temperatures should return to the low/mid 80s by afternoon.

Hotter temperatures next week with upper 80s to lower 90s possible. Very humid each afternoon along with daily chances for pop up afternoon & evening t-showers. In other words, a more typical July pattern.

David Glenn




Shower Chances Increasing To Begin The Weekend

07/17/14

Low temperatures Thursday morning were again below average, but just shy of a record low at Lovell Field.  The official low was 59, just above the record of 58 from 1970.  Other notable low temperatures locally:

Dalton: 55
Athens: 52
Murphy: 52

High atop Mt LeConte (6400 Ft) in the Smoky Mtns had a low of 38 degrees for the second morning in a row.


A weather pattern change is on the way as we head into the weekend.

Increasing clouds  Thursday Night with lows in the low/mid 60s. A few showers are even possible very late. Cloudy and more humid Friday with periods of showers and t-showers with a high only reaching the low 80s (70s mountains and north). The risk of any severe weather is low. With areas of Low Pressure moving by to our south, an unsettled pattern of off and on showers/t-showers is again possible Friday night and into Saturday. Only low 80s again on Saturday as temperatures remain below normal.

By Sunday, mainly some afternoon and evening t-showers with an afternoon high in the mid/upper 80s. Next week should have us back in a typical July pattern of heat, humidity and afternoon t-showers. High temperatures approaching near 90 each day and quite humid. Morning lows near 70.

David Glenn




Comfortable Again Thursday, But A Pattern Change For The Weekend

07/16/14

Clear and comfortable again through Thursday morning with low temperatures near 60 in the city, but 50s away from the city and on the mountain tops!  Partly sunny with low humidity again for Thursday afternoon and a high near 85 (near 80 mountains)

A weather pattern change begins Friday with increasing humidity and even some scattered afternoon and evening t-showers.  Mid 80s again Friday.  A better chance for scattered showers and storms could occur Saturday and again Sunday.  Temperatures should remain a little below normal for this time of year with highs in the mid 80s through the weekend.

A more typical July pattern resumes for early next week with heat. humidity and daily chances for pop up afternoon t-showers. Highs for Monday and Tuesday in the upper 80s to near 90.

David Glenn




Cooler & Drier Air Arrives

07/15/14

A clearing sky and much cooler the rest of the night with a low in the city near 60. 50s possible away from the city and on the mountain tops! Sunny with low humidity Wednesday and a high in the lower 80s (70s mountains).

Comfortable again Wednesday night through Thursday morning with a low near 60 (50s away from the city). Thursday should be partly sunny with a high in the low/mid 80s.  As far as breaking any record low temperatures, it might be a bit tough to do so Wednesday morning.  Even with some upper 50s possible, the record low for Wednesday is 53 set back in 1967.  The record low for Thursday morning is 58 set in 1970.  That record could be close to tying.  We will just have to wait and see.

The chance for showers and t-storms could return as early as late Friday. This increased chance for showers and storms could continue through Saturday. Highs remaining below normal for mid July in the low 80s along with morning lows in the 60s.

David Glenn




Thuderstorms Giving Way To Cooler Temperatures

07/14/14

The coverage of rain and thunderstorms should increase across the viewing area through the evening and into Tuesday morning. Heavy rainfall is possible and a few storms could become severe with the threat of damaging wind gusts and hail. The coverage of rain and storms should slowly decrease from the west through the day Tuesday.

This threat of rain and storms is in advance of a strong cold front that will usher in some cooler and drier air late Tuesday and especially into Wednesday. This should be very similar to the cooling effect that we had right before Independence Day. Highs on Tuesday only in the mid 80s, then near 60 by Tuesday night. Wednesday should be less humid, sunny and cooler with a high in the low 80s.  Wednesday night should again be comfortable in the upper 50s to near 60, then mid 80s and partly sunny Thursday afternoon.  The normal high temperature for mid July is 90.  So, just enough cool air to take the edge off of the typical heat for this time of year and even some comfortable mornings.

David Glenn




A Hot Weekend, But A Little Cooler Next Week

07/11/14

A typical July weekend can be expected for the Tennessee Valley!

Saturday should be sunny to partly sunny with afternoon temperatures reaching the lower 90s. There is just a slight chance for a pop up afternoon and evening t-shower. Similar conditions again Sunday, but with just a slightly better chance for an afternoon & evening t-shower. Otherwise partly sunny and still hot with a high in the low/mid 90s.

Some heat relief could arrive late Monday and into Tuesday in the form of a cool front. The passage of the front means and increase in showers and t-storms through Tuesday. Behind the front should be much drier and slightly cooler air. Similar to what we experienced last week for Independence Day. High temperatures should ease back into the mid 80s from Wednesday through Friday along with comfortable morning lows in the low 60s (some 50s mountains).  While this upcoming air mass is being advertised as a piece of the "Polar Vortex", please keep in mind that a July version is nothing like that of January.  This cooler air mass will take the edge off of the heat for the Tennessee Valley next week.  But, the more noticeable "Un-Summer Like" temperatures should be farther to our north over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.

David Glenn




Hotter Temperatures For The Weekend.....Some Heat Relief Possible Next Week

07/10/14

Hotter temperatures moving in for Friday and the weekend.  Partly sunny & near 91 Friday (80s mountains).  Low 90s for both Saturday and Sunday.  There will be a slight chance for some pop up afternoon t-showers over the weekend, especially Sunday.

The better chance for showers could occur by late Monday and into Tuesday as a cool front moves in.  Highs should be in the 90s again Monday, then upper 80s Tuesday.  Once the front passes by early Wednesday, we could experience another round of slightly below normal temperatures with highs in the mid 80s and lows possibly dropping to the low 60s.

David Glenn




Drier & Hotter By Late Week and the Weekend

07/09/14

Scattered showers and some t-showers possible Wednesday evening, then partly cloudy with a low in the upper 60s. Partly sunny on Thursday, but there still remains the chance for some t-showers during the afternoon and evening. Better chances south and east. Expect an afternoon high in the upper 80s.

Friday should be sunny, drier and hotter with an afternoon high in the lower 90s. The weekend looks hot and humid with daily highs in the low 90s and morning lows in the upper 60s. Each day has a slight chance for some pop up afternoon t-showers. Otherwise, partly sunny.

Better rain chances possible toward early next week (late Monday through Wednesday).

David Glenn




More Typical July Pattern

07/07/14

Heat and humidity more typical of early July has settled back in. Temperatures on Tuesday should reach the lower 90s under a partly sunny sky. Expect a Heat Index possible in the mid/upper 90s. A few afternoon and evening pop up t-showers are possible.

A better shower and storm chance is possible late Tuesday night and into Wednesday as a cool front slowly approaches the Tennessee Valley. With more cloud cover and numerous showers Wednesday, expect an afternoon high to stay in the mid/upper 80s. The front could stall through early Thursday and keep some shower chances possible with highs in the upper 80s.  Rainfall amounts have the potential to range from 0.50" to 1" locally through late Wednesday.  Should the front stall to our south, rainfall amounts could go above 1.50" across north Georgia and Alabama.

A more typical Summer pattern returns for Friday and through the weekend with a partly sunny sky each day and daily highs in the low 90s. Each day has a slight chance for mainly some pop up afternoon and evening t-showers.

David Glenn




Beautiful Weather Continues For The Weekend

07/04/14

Another comfortable night ahead and perfect this evening for all of the Independence Day fireworks displays! Expect an overnight low in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Sunny and just a little hotter on Saturday with an afternoon high in the upper 80s, then low 90s and sunny on Sunday. Normal July temperatures and humidity for next week as high temperatures should average in the low 90s and morning lows near 70. A slight chance of mainly pop up afternoon t-showers by Tuesday and a better chance possible Wednesday and Thursday.

David Glenn




Gorgeous Weather For The Holiday Weekend

07/03/14

Happy Independence Day!!!

Last year, Independence Day and the days that followed were a wash out. This year we will be awash in sunshine for Independence Day!

A comfortable start to Independence Day with temperatures near 60. This means that some areas north and mountains could be in the upper 50s. Sunny and breezy through the afternoon with a high in the mid 80s (near 80 local mountains). Another comfortable morning Saturday with temperatures from the upper 50s to near 60. The Record Low for Saturday morning is 59. Sunny again Saturday afternoon with a high in the upper 80s to near 90.

Sunday rounds out an outstanding holiday weekend with sunshine and an afternoon high around 90. More humid and a little hotter through early next week as low 90s return each afternoon. Rain chances remain low with the exception of some pop up afternoon t-showers Tuesday through Thursday.

David Glenn




Outstanding Weather For Thursday & Independence Day

07/02/14

A cool front should roll through the Tennessee Valley tonight. This could produce a few t-showers this evening, then clearing overnight with a low in the upper 60s. Thursday should not be as hot or as humid. Drier air moving in should lower humidity values across the region. Expect a sunny to partly sunny sky with afternoon highs in the mid/upper 80s. There is still a small chance for an afternoon shower over the eastern mountains (Great Smoky & Blue Ridge Mtns).

Very comfortable by Independence Day morning with low 60s. Some areas north and mountains could have temperatures dip into the upper 50s!  Then, sunny with low humidity again and afternoon highs in the mid 80s. Afternoon temperatures should return to the 90s over the weekend and morning lows in the 60s. Only very small chances for any pop up showers by Sunday. A similar pattern into early next week.

David Glenn




Heat & Humidity Relief On The Way By Thursday

07/01/14

A muggy night ahead with a fair sky and low temperatures only dropping into the low 70s. Hot and humid again Wednesday with a partly sunny sky and highs in the low/mid 90s. There is the chance for some afternoon and evening t-showers as a cool front moves through.

Some heat relief moves in Thursday. Much drier air rushes into the Tennessee Valley behind that cool front and is reinforced by Tropical Storm Arthur staying to our east. A few showers possible far to our east over the Blue Ridge Mtns. But, this pattern should bring us a steady, dry breeze from the north through Independence Day. This means, lower humidity and comfortable mornings in the 60s. Afternoons should not be quite as hot with 80s both Thursday and Independence Day. The low 90s should return over the weekend with only small chances for any late day showers returning.

David Glenn




Hotter Tuesday With Some Showers Wednesday

06/30/14

June will end with a 0.48" surplus of rainfall for the month.  This continues a trend of the "even numbered" months this year having above normal rainfall and "odd numbered" months having below normal rainfall.  The rainfall amount for the year stands at 22.28" which is 4.59" below normal.

We will be trading wetter conditions for hotter conditions on Tuesday. Showers and t-showers through this evening, then partly cloudy overnight with a muggy low near 70. Finally, more sunshine for Tuesday! But, it will be much hotter with an afternoon high in the low/mid 90s.

After a drier Tuesday, afternoon showers and storms return for Wednesday. But, it will still be hot with highs in the low 90s. Drier conditions return for Thursday and again Independence Day! Plus, with a dry, northerly flow (on the backside of a potential Atlantic tropical system) it won't be quite as hot with afternoon highs in the upper 80s and comfortable morning lows in the mid 60s.
  The 90s should return for the upcoming weekend.

David Glenn




Weekend Afternoon T-Showers, Then Hotter Next Week

06/27/14

A scattering of afternoon and evening t-showers will still be possible over the weekend, then a drier and hotter trend next week as we begin July!

Saturday should be much like the past few afternoons.  Morning clouds giving way to a mix of sun and clouds with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s.  Scattered showers and storms are again possible from midday and into the afternoon hours.  The risk of severe storms remains low, but be aware of the threat of lightning and heavy downpours.  Most of these showers should fade out by Saturday evening.

A similar pattern again Sunday with a high in the upper 80s to near 90.  Scattered showers and storms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours.  By Monday, the chance of afternoon t-showers begins to lower, but the afternoon temperatures should be higher with low 90s possible.  Most of next week looks quite hot with daily highs in the low/mid 90s but only very small chances for any late day t-showers.  An early look at the Independence Day forecast also looks high with low 90s along with the chance for a few pop up variety late day t-showers.

David Glenn




Soggy Update Heading Into Friday.....Still Looks Hot Next Week

06/26/14

A soggy off & on pattern of showers and t-showers through Friday.  Mid 80s Friday afternoon as skies remain cloudy. This pattern of occasional showers and storms should continue into the beginning of the weekend through Saturday. By Sunday, drier conditions should move in with fewer t-showers. Highs on Saturday in the mid/upper 80s, then near 90 Sunday. Hotter and drier conditions next week with much lower shower chances along with daily highs in the 90s.

David




T-Shower Chances Increasing, Then Much Hotter Next Week

06/25/14

Partly sunny and hot Thursday with upper 80s to near 90 by afternoon.  Expect a slightly better chance for pop up afternoon t-showers.  An even better chance on Friday and again Saturday.  Fewer t-showers and hotter Sunday with low 90s.  Mid 90s are possible for the early to middle part of next week.  One of the hottest stretch of days so far this season for a large part of next week leading up to the July 4th Holiday Weekend.  Shower chances could increase by the holiday weekend, but mostly hot and dry until then.

David




Fewer T-Showers Wednesday & A Little Hotter

06/24/14

Showers and t-showers moving through Tuesday evening, then cloudy and muggy overnight with a low near 70.  We should have a little more sun on Wednesday with temperatures rising back to the upper 80s.  Still a few t-showers popping up, but fewer in number than the past few days.  Lower 90s return by Thursday with mainly some pop up t-showers during the afternoon.  The coverage of t-showers could increase slightly again by Friday and Saturday with highs each day around 90.

David




Summer "Officially" Begins Saturday Morning!

06/20/14

Even though it has felt like Summer for weeks, the "official" start of Summer is Saturday at 6:51amET.

Typical Summer heat and humidity will be with us for the weekend.  Daily highs should continue to average in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  The Heat Index could feel like the upper 90s due to the typical June humidity levels.  Scattered afternoon and evening t-storms are again possible Saturday with a lesser of a chance on Sunday.  So, please remember lightning safety during your outdoor plans...."When the thunder roars, go indoors".

The pattern should not change much on Monday with daily pop up afternoon storms.  But, by Tuesday and Wednesday, model data is favoring a better coverage of showers and storms both days.  And, rainfall amounts could near the 1" mark over those two days.  Hopefully that trend comes to pass because we have a yearly rainfall deficit currently at just over 5".

David Glenn




A Slightly Better Chance of Pop Up Storms On Saturday

06/19/14

Friday:  Partly sunny and hot with an afternoon high in the low 90s.  A Heat Index near 100.  Pop up afternoon and evening t-storms possible.  A north wind at 5-10mph.


Friday Night:  Some isolated t-showers during the evening, then a partly cloudy sky with a low near 70.


Saturday:  A mix of sun and clouds with a better chance of scattered t-storms developing during the afternoon and evening.  An afternoon high in the upper 80s.


Summer officially begins at 6:51amET Saturday.  There should be fewer afternoon storms on Sunday compared to Saturday, otherwise partly sunny with a high around 90.  A similar pattern into next week with heat, humidity and a daily round of afternoon and evening t-storms.




Weekend Outlook: Temperatures Heating Up!

06/13/14

Temperatures should begin to heat up over the weekend as we finally experience a pattern change from the "gloomy" one of this past week.

Saturday should be partly to mostly sunny and finally not as many showers.  An afternoon high in the mid 80s.  The best chance for pop up t-showers over the Blue Ridge Mtns.  Hotter on Sunday, Father's Day, as temperatures near the 90 degree mark under a partly sunny sky.  Again, still a slight chance for an afternoon shower, but fewer in number than what we have seen this week.
Most of next week looks hot under a partly sunny sky each day.  Daily highs in the low/mid 90s and morning lows in the upper 60s.  Small chances for afternoon t-showers each day.

David Glenn




Signs Of A Pattern Change By The Weekend

06/11/14


This pattern will gradually ease over the next few days, but will still create a daily round of afternoon and evening t-showers otherwise partly sunny with highs in the 80s through Friday. By the weekend, the coverage of afternoon t-showers drops off a bit. With more sunshine expect daily highs to creep up into the upper 80s to near 90.

Hotter afternoons next week with low 90s each day.  Partly sunny to sunny each day with slight chances for pop up t-showers each day!

David




Tuesday's Storms Moving Out, But Pattern Continues

06/10/14

The strong thunderstorms and heavy rain are continuing to move to the east.  Through the evening, the showers give us a break as the coverage becomes more isolated under a cloudy sky.  70s through the evening, then 60s overnight with a chance for isolated t-showers late. 
For Wednesday, we are still stuck in this pattern.  Expect a mix of sun and clouds, then at times some scattered thunderstorms will be possible.  Like today, a few storms could be strong and even produce some heavy rain.  This pattern continues into Thursday, but begins to ease up for Friday and into the weekend.  Daily highs in the mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday, then upper 80s Friday and Saturday.

David Glenn




A Typical "Riverbend" Weather Pattern

06/06/14

A weather pattern that we are all to familiar with will stick around for the first weekend of Riverbend!

A stalled front and an upper level wind flow from the west could help create daily rounds of scattered thunderstorms.  This is a typical pattern for the first half of June.   The key word to remember about the forecast for the next few days is "scattered".  In other words, it should not rain all day, nor in all locations.  Primarily the storms will be scattered in nature and mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.  Like the past few days, there is still the chance that a few storms could reach severe levels with damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Please remember lightning safety during your outdoor plans this weekend.  "When The Thunder Roars...Go Indoors".  Please also wait at least 30 minutes since that last clap of thunder before resuming outdoor activities after a storm moves through.

The coverage of these scattered storms could increase just a bit for Sunday and again Monday.  Daily highs should remain in the upper 80s and morning lows in the upper 60s to near 70.  The humidity will also be high, so the Heat Index could reach 90 or above each afternoon.

This weather pattern should continue into the early to middle part of next week!

David Glenn




Keeping An Eye On Overnight & Thursday Storms

06/04/14

Scattered thunderstorms could occur late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning in advance of a cold front moving in from the north.

This "complex" of thunderstorms could slowly move in from the NNW during the overnight hours and into Thursday.  Some of the storms could become severe with damaging wind gusts & hail (along with frequent lightning & heavy rain).   Isolated tornadoes can never be ruled out in this type of pattern, but for now that risk remains low.  As always, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team to keep you updated.

That front could stall over the Tennessee Valley on Thursday.  This means that storms could occur Thursday morning and then again during the afternoon & evening hours.  This active upper level pattern from the northwest could continue into Friday as well with the risk of strong thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.  It should also remain hot and humid with daily afternoon highs in the upper 80s.

Afternoon and evening storms could remain a possibility for the weekend and early next week.  While not an "all day rain" pattern, the daily scattered storm chances could help relieve the local rainfall deficit that is over 5".  The European and US forecast models show a "potential" for 1.4" to 1.8" through early next week.  But, due to the scattered nature of storms, different results can be expected for different areas.

As always, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team for updates!

David Glenn




Thunderstorms Possible Late Wednesday Night & Thursday

06/03/14

This time of year we are used to the daily round of scattered afternoon and evening t-storms.  But, at times, a cold front can trigger a better coverage of storms.  And, that could be the case locally late Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Wednesday should be hot and humid again locally under a partly sunny sky.  Expect an afternoon high in the upper 80s, though it may feel like the lower 90s with the humidity factored in for the Heat Index.  Some pop up t-showers could occur locally Wednesday afternoon and early evening, but the coverage should be small.

As a cold front to our north over the Ohio Valley sags south, it could help trigger a better coverage of showers and storms across Tennessee and eventually our part of the Tennessee Valley.  Timing wise, it looks like it could be very late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning.  Storms to our north could be severe with the threat of damaging wind gusts and hail.  We will just have to see if those severe elements are a factor locally through late Wednesday night.

Drier conditions should settle in later Thursday and into Friday.  Drier, but also hotter with high temperatures nearing 90 Friday and continuing into the weekend!

David Glenn




Scattered T-Showers Tuesday, Then Hotter Wednesday

06/02/14

After a comfortable start to the work week, expect a better chance for scattered t-showers locally on Tuesday and then hotter for Wednesday.

MAY 2014 LOCAL STATS

May 2014 in Chattanooga was both warmer and drier than average.  The average temperature was 70.4 degrees which was 1.8 degrees above normal.  The hottest temperature was on the last day of the month with 91 degrees.  Mid month was quite cool with the lowest temperature of 45 degrees on the 16th.  May followed the trend of April which also has above normal temperatures.  However, 3 of these first 5 months of the year had below normal temperatures.

Total rainfall was 1.85" which was 2.25" below average.  This puts our yearly rainfall deficit at 5.77" below normal.

The NOAA outlook for June 2014 locally has the possibility of above normal rainfall and normal temperatures.

BETTER T-SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY

A weak front to our west could provide a better coverage of showers and t-storms locally on Tuesday.  Otherwise, expect a mix of clouds and sun with temperatures near normal in the mid 80s.   The risk of widespread severe storms remains low, but be aware that a few storms during the afternoon and evening could produce some hail.  Most of the showers/t-showers should fade out Tuesday evening.

A LITTLE HOTTER WEDNESDAY

Temperatures should heat up just a bit on Wednesday as an upper level ridge of high pressure takes over from the west.  This could boost local high temperatures into the lower 90s (80s mountains).  There will still be the chance for a pop up t-shower Wednesday afternoon and evening, but the coverage should be lower than Tuesday.

HOT, HUMID & PM T-SHOWERS

That pretty much sums up the local weather pattern for Thursday, Friday and the upcoming weekend.  And, right on time for the start of Riverbend.  Each day will carry the risk for some afternoon & evening t-showers, mainly in the "pop up" category.  Daily highs should average in the upper 80s to even near 90 with morning lows in the upper 60s.

David Glenn




Weekend & Long Range Outlook

05/30/14

A persistent early Summer pattern should continue into the weekend. Muggy mornings in the 60s, giving way to very warm and humid afternoons in the upper 80s under a partly sunny sky. Widely scattered afternoon and evening t-showers will again be possibility each day. Like the past few days, this is not an all day wash out pattern, but some outdoor activities could have some occasional interruptions due to t-showers.

Temperatures could get a little hotter into the lower 90s by early next week.  The weather pattern for next week should also exhibit a few days that could have slightly better chances or coverage of afternoon and evening t-showers.  Tuesday is one of those days!.

Beyond next week, there are still indications from various forecast models that suggest this early season heat should subside a bit after the first week of June.  This has been consistent in the long range models for the past few days.  As always, you can depend on us to keep you updated on these trends!

David Glenn




Continued Pattern Of Afternoon & Evening T-Showers

05/29/14

The weather pattern that we have been stuck in for most of the week should continue through Friday and into the weekend.  However, the coverage across the viewing area of those scattered PM t-showers could be just a little bit more on Friday.  A weakening upper level low to our south and west should eventually lower the coverage of afternoon and evening t-showers through the weekend.  But, still be aware that each day carries that chance for a few t-showers popping up.  No all day wash outs for the weekend, but some interruptions of outdoor activities at times.

Other than the t-shower chances mentioned above, skies should remain partly sunny.  Temperatures should continue to remain above average for late May and early June with highs in the upper 80s through Sunday and the humidity making it feel just a tad hotter.  Afternoon highs could be just a little higher early next week near 90.

David Glenn




Stuck In A Summer Pattern For Now

05/27/14

The calendar still says May, but it feel mores like June or July.  This early Summer pattern should continue for the next few days.

High pressure off the Southeast US coast should keep us in this pattern through the start of the weekend.  This means each day should be hazy to partly sunny and humid.  Scattered showers/storms are going to be possible each afternoon and evening.  Most with heavy downpours and frequent lightning, but a few could produce some small hail.

Afternoon high temperatures should remain in the mid/upper 80s, but it may feel like close to 90 due to high humidity levels.  Morning lows mostly in the 60s.  This temperature pattern should also continue into the upcoming weekend.

It may seem like that this Summer pattern is here to stay.  However, longer range forecast model projections from both the US and European models continues to hint at a possible pattern change around June 6-11.  We will just have to wait and see.  As always, you can depend on us to keep you updated!

David Glenn




Memorial Day Weekend

05/23/14

The Memorial Day Weekend should get off to a nice start Saturday, but be aware that better chances of pop up afternoon t-showers could occur Sunday and especially Memorial Day.

Please remember the reason for the holiday as we honor those that sacrificed so much to ensure our freedom!

A little less humid Saturday with a mix of clouds and sun. Also, not quite as hot with a high in the low/mid 80s. A nice breeze from the north-northwest.  It should be very comfortable Sunday morning with temperatures near 60 by sunrise and even some spots in the 50s!  Sunday afternoon should be partly sunny and warmer as temperatures rise into the mid/upper 80s.  There could be a few pop up variety of afternoon/evening t-showers.

As we observe Memorial Day, expect a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the upper 80s. There will be a slightly better chance for the development of some afternoon and evening t-storms. So, please keep this in mind for outdoor activities.  Remember lightning safety....."When the thunder roars, go indoors"!

A similar pattern for next week with hot and humid afternoons. Each day has the chance for scattered afternoon and evening t-storms developing.  The coverage could really begin to increase a little bit more on Thursday and Friday.  Daily highs should average in the upper 80s (near 90 at times in spots) and morning lows in the 60s.

David Glenn





Afternoon & Evening Storms Through Friday

05/22/14

Some scattered thunderstorms are still a possibility through Thursday evening and again Friday afternoon/evening.

A few storms could be strong to severe with wind gusts and hail. Otherwise, expect a partly sunny sky through sunset and some scattered cloud cover through Thursday night and lows in the mid 60s. A similar pattern Friday with a partly sunny sky and highs in the upper 80s. A few afternoon/evening t-storms are possible.

The chance for late day storms drops off for Saturday and Sunday as drier air moves in. Comfortable mornings in the upper 50s to near 60, but still quite warm with mid/upper 80s each afternoon with a partly sunny sky.

By Memorial Day, the small chance returns that some afternoon/evening pop up t-storms could develop. Otherwise a mix of sun and clouds with a high again in the upper 80s.  A similar pattern for most of the week ahead with heat, humidity and daily chances for afternoon and evening t-storms.  The coverage of rain and t-storms could increase by late next week and the following weekend.

David Glenn




Some Afternoon/Evening T-Storms Thursday

05/21/14

A preview of Summer as we head into the holiday weekend!  Be aware that some scattered t-storms are possible, especially Thursday afternoon and possibly again Friday.

Expect a fair sky tonight with low temperatures in the low 60s. Quite warm and humid Thursday under a partly sunny sky. There is the chance for a few afternoon and evening t-storms with high temperatures in the upper 80s.  A few storms could be severe with strong wind gusts and large hail, especially north.  Partly sunny again Friday with the possibility of some afternoon & evening pop up thunderstorms.  Expect an afternoon high in the mid/upper 80s.  Partly sunny and hot for Saturday, Sunday and Memorial Day with daily highs in the upper 80s. By Memorial Day there is just a slightly better chance for a few pop up afternoon and evening t-showers.

Shower chances could steadily rise for next week with highs remaining in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

David Glenn




Warm Temperatures Sticking Around For A While

05/20/14

Warmer temperatures have returned and should stick around for a while!

A fair sky through this evening and overnight with a low in the upper 50s. Sunny to partly sunny Wednesday with upper 80s by the afternoon. The weather pattern should not change much through late week. However, there could be some pop up variety of afternoon/evening t-showers Thursday and possibly again Friday. Otherwise, partly sunny both days with highs in the upper 80s and even near 90 in spots.

A similar pattern through the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend. Partly sunny with daily highs in the upper 80s and morning lows in the low 60s. At this point, any rain chances limited to mainly pop up afternoon t-showers.

David Glenn




Afternoons Heating Up!

05/19/14

After five straight days of below normal temperatures, expect a rapid warm up in the days ahead!

Patchy dense fog could again be an issue later tonight and Tuesday morning.  Once the fog lifts, expect a sunny to partly sunny sky Tuesday afternoon with temperatures reaching the low/mid 80s.  Low 60s Tuesday night, then sunny and even warmer Wednesday with upper 80s.  A similar pattern again Thursday with upper 80s by afternoon.  It wouldn't surprise me if a few spots reach around 90 both afternoons!

As for rain chances, expect that to remain low.  There will be the chance of mainly some pop up variety of afternoon and evening t-showers Thursday and Friday (20%).  And, even for the start of the Memorial Day weekend, a similar pattern can be expected.  Aside from those chances, expect a mix of sun and clouds each day with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s through the holiday weekend.

David Glenn




Cooler Than Normal Through The Weekend, Then Much Warmer Next Week

05/16/14

Cooler than normal temperatures will continue for the weekend along with shower chances both days.

Many of you have wondered why the showers on Friday produced hail. This happened due to very chilly air aloft at a lower altitude. So, as a disturbance moved through Friday morning and afternoon, the lifting of the air that produced some t-showers was more easily able to produce the hail due to the colder air at the lower altitude. Hail can occur at any time of year here in the Southeast and Tennessee Valley and is not a winter type of precipitation.

Cloudy Saturday with periods of showers moving through. Temperatures remaining cooler than normal only reaching the 60s after cool morning lows in the 40s. A break in the shower chances Saturday night with low 50s under a cloudy sky. Then, another round of showers possible Sunday with highs in the 60s. It should not be all day washouts either day, however, you can expect several interruptions to outdoor plans both days. So, please be prepared!  Model data tends to favor the best chance for rain Sunday mainly during the morning hours.

Drier and much warmer conditions next week with some sun and 70s Monday, then 80s the rest of the week. Temperatures could reach the upper 80s by mid to late week.

David Glenn




"Blackberry Winter" For The Tennessee Valley

05/15/14

Here in the Tennessee Valley, we call these cool snaps in the month of May "Blackberry Winter". And, this year's version lives up to the billing! A partly cloudy sky tonight and still breezy during the evening. Overnight lows in the mid 40s with some areas north and mountains hovering near 40.  A few passing showers are possible through the overnight hours.

A mix of sun and clouds Friday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s. A few spots hovering around 70. Clouds are back for Friday night along with passing showers possible Saturday. Cooler than normal again Saturday with morning lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 60s. Similar conditions on Sunday with some showers possible, otherwise cloudy and highs in the upper 60s after a morning low near 50.

A quick warm up next week with dry conditions through mid week. Upper 70s Monday, low 80s Tuesday and even upper 80s by mid to late week.


David Glenn




Cooler Temperatures On The Way

05/14/14

A cold front producing heavy rain and storms will eventually cool off temperatures locally Thursday.

Periods of rain and storms should taper off through Thursday morning.  Then, a breezy, cloudy and cooler day with afternoon temperatures only reaching the mid 60s.  A steady breeze from the northwest should make it feel a bit cooler as well.

Even cooler Thursday as overnight temperatures drop into the mid 40s (near 40 north and mountains).  Friday should again be cooler than normal for mid May with an afternoon high in the mid/upper 60s.  There could be some passing showers during the afternoon Friday as well.

This cooler than normal pattern should continue into the start of the weekend with morning lows back in the 40s Saturday and highs only in the upper 60s.  And, again, a few passing showers are possible Saturday, otherwise a mix of sun and clouds.

A warming trend begins by Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds and 70s for the afternoon!  Temperatures should warm back to near 80 by Tuesday of next week and even mid 80s by Wednesday.  This warming trend should also have dry conditions through mid week of next week.

David Glenn




Heavy Rain & Storms Possible Late Wednesday and Into Thursday

05/13/14

A slow moving cold front could mean some prolonged periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday and continuing into Thursday.  Much cooler air follows.

The better coverage of rain and storms should slowly increase from the west during Wednesday afternoon.  The trend continues to increase Wednesday night.   First of all, we will have to keep an eye on the risk of severe storms on the leading edge of this activity Wednesday afternoon and evening.  The Storm Prediction Center places the best severe chances over middle Tennessee, but not our viewing area.  However, we will need to watch storm development to our west through Wednesday afternoon and evening.

After the initial leading edge of possible storms, heavy rain could become an issue.  This is due to the very slow movement east of the cold front.  Projected rainfall totals by various computer model data shows the potential for 1" to even 2" in spots.  A few isolated spots could have more with any slow moving thunderstorms.  So, we will continue to watch the trends for any risk of flash flooding, especially Wednesday night and early Thursday.

The risk of heavy rain should slowly end from west to east during the day Thursday as the front moves by.  Temperatures should also begin to cool with highs on Thursday only in the 60s along with a steady breeze from the northwest.  Much cooler Thursday night with lows in the 40s.  Friday afternoons temperatures should again stay in the 60s and lows Friday night in the 40s.

This type of cool snap during the month of May is often called "Blackberry Winter"!  As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Shower/Storm Chances Increase....Temps Eventually Decrease

05/12/14

A summer-like start to the week should eventually switch to cooler temperatures at the end of the week.  Showers and storm chances increasing as well.

SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AGAIN TUESDAY

Tuesday should still feel like June or July with a partly sunny sky and afternoon highs in the mid/upper 80s.  Some pop up variety of afternoon showers and storms will be possible as well.  Most of these showers and storms should fade out after sunset.

BETTER RAIN & STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY

As a cold front slowly approaches the Tennessee Valley, the coverage of rain and the chance for t-storms should increase.  Some of the storms Wednesday afternoon and evening could become strong to severe.  And, as always, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team to keep you updated on this!

Temperatures should again reach the low 80s Wednesday, before cooler air gradually trickles in through Thursday.  Off and on showers could continue right through Thursday, then ending.  A northwesterly breeze should kick in and drop high temperatures to only near 70 on Thursday.

COOLER AIR FOR LATE WEEK

As the showers wrap up Thursday, the cooler air should begin to move in.  By Thursday night, temperatures should drop into the upper 40s by Friday morning.  A drier day Friday with a mix of sun and clouds with highs probably not even reaching 70 with many areas in the 60s.  Upper 40s again by Saturday morning to start the weekend, then low 70s by the afternoon.

Some showers are possible on Sunday as a system moves by north of the Tennessee Valley.  Temperatures for highs late weekend and early next week in the low 70s and morning lows in the 50s.

David Glenn




Mother's Day Weekend Weather

05/09/14

A soggy start to the weekend with off and on periods of showers and thundershowers.  But, there should be some periods of sun as well with temperatures remaining above average.

SATURDAY SHOWERS

A cool front should move closer to the Tennessee Valley through Saturday, then retreat back to the north.  This means that some periods of showers and thundershowers should be possible.  The risk of severe weather remains low with this system as the best instability should be to our north.

As the front retreats back to the north later in the day, the amount of scattered showers and t-showers should drop off as well.  By Saturday night, mainly a cloudy sky and humid.  Expect afternoon temperatures around 80-82 Saturday (70s mountains) and lows Saturday night in the low 60s.

SOME SUN MOTHER'S DAY

Mother's Day Sunday could seem more like a summer day.  Very warm and humid with the chance of some mainly "pop up" afternoon t-showers (20%-30%).  But, again, not an all day rain chance.  Temperatures should stay above average in the mid 80s as some sun mixes in with the clouds.

HOT & HUMID MONDAY

Rain chances Monday should stay quite low in the isolated category (pop up variety), otherwise partly sunny and humid with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s.  It could feel a little hotter due to the humidity.

SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

A stronger cold front could move through the Tennessee Valley late Tuesday through Wednesday.  There is the chance that some storms could become severe during this time.  Still a bit early to be more specific, but we will be keep an eye on this pattern in the days ahead.  Highs in the low 80s Tuesday, then 70s Wednesday with the better coverage of showers and storms.

DRIER AND COOLER LATE WEEK

Once the cold front moves through, we can expect some much cooler air and sunshine for the second half of next week.  Highs Thursday and Friday should stay in the 70s (60s to near 70 Thursday) and morning lows quite cool in the upper 40s.

David Glenn




A Wet Start To The Upcoming Weekend

05/07/14

It has been dry and very warm for most of the work week.  This trend should continue through Thursday with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s.  However, a weather pattern change could lead to a wet start to the upcoming weekend.

STILL SUMMER LIKE THURSDAY

A sunny, then partly sunny sky Thursday and just a tad more humid through the afternoon.  Temperatures should again reach the mid/upper 80s along with a steady breeze from the south.  Rain chances remain slim for Thursday locally.

SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY

The strong high pressure system that kept us warm and dry all week long is slowly breaking down as it shifts east.  This means that humidity levels will continue to climb and pressures lower in advance of a frontal system from the west.  Expect increasing cloud cover Friday and even some late day scattered showers and t-showers possible.  Afternoon highs should reach the low/mid 80s.

A better coverage of showers and t-showers could occur Friday night and into Saturday morning.  Fortunately, the risk of severe weather locally looks very low.  As always, you can depend on us to keep you updated on this.  The coverage of showers and t-showers should be higher during the first half of the day Saturday, then lower by late day.  Forecast model data continues to show a wide range of rainfall amounts.  For example, the European Model favors lighter amounts in the 0.75" to 1.2" range, while the US GFS model has some heavier downpours projected which could lead to amounts between 1" to 2" on Saturday.  So, we will continue to keep an eye on these trends as well.

FEWER SHOWERS MOTHER'S DAY

We should remain in an unsettled pattern even on Sunday, Mother's Day.  However, the coverage of scattered showers should be much less than Saturday.  So, while some showers are possible, we could see a mix of sun and clouds with afternoon highs near 80.

A similar pattern for early next week.  Unsettled and a gradual increase in the coverage of showers and t-showers through Tuesday, then ending by early Wednesday,

A BREAK IN THE HEAT

The increased coverage of showers and t-showers should bring high temperatures down from the upper 80s Thursday to the 70s Saturday and near 80 Sunday.  Low 80s could still occur by early next week, but cooler and drier air should move in by midweek which should result in daily highs in the 70s and morning lows cooling to the 50s.  In other words, more seasonal for mid May.

David Glenn




Humidity Rising Through Late Week

05/06/14

Above average temperatures should continue through the end of the work week.  Humidity levels should also begin to creep up which should eventually lead to some weekend showers.

NOT RECORD HIGH, BUT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE

Temperatures will still feel like June or July with mid/upper 80s through Friday.  Local Record High temperatures are in the low/mid 90s, so we probably will not tie or break any record high temperatures.  But, these temperature readings are about 10 degrees above average for early May.

DRY UNTIL THE WEEKEND

Humidity levels should begin to climb for Thursday and especially Friday as the southerly wind flow continues and draws up Gulf moisture.  Shower chances should still remain low both days, but the coverage does increase a bit very late Friday and into Friday night.

It still looks like Saturday could be the wettest day of the weekend with off and on periods of showers and even some thunder.  The risk of severe weather looks very low.  Model data projects possible rainfall amounts from 0.75" to 0.90" across our local viewing area on Saturday.  Some showers are still possible on Mother's Day Sunday, though the coverage should be less than what we could have on Saturday.

A few peeks of sun as well on Sunday should boost temperatures back into the low 80s after being held to the 70s on Saturday due to the showers.

As always, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team to keep you updated!

David Glenn




It Feels More Like June Than May

05/04/14

An early Summer temperature preview across the Tennessee Valley the next few afternoons with upper 80s possible through Thursday.

Upper 80s will be common both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon with a partly to mostly sunny sky.  Morning lows should remain comfortable in the upper 50s.

Humidity levels begin to creep up mid to late week.  We could see some scattered showers and more widespread periods of rain later Friday and Friday night.  The good chance for rain could continue into Saturday as well.  Highs remaining in the 80s through Friday, then 70s on Saturday.

Rainfall amounts could reach from 0.75" to 1.00" late Friday through Saturday evening.  The showers could be more scattered in nature on Sunday (Mother's Day), so it does not appear to be on all day rain on Sunday.

Off and on periods of showers could linger well into next week.  So, enjoy the sunshine and quite weather conditions while it lasts!

David Glenn




Warmer Days Ahead!

05/02/14

A very nice weekend ahead for the Tennessee Valley! 

Partly sunny Saturday and warmer through the afternoon with a high in the mid/upper 70s (low 70s mountains).  Seasonably cool again Saturday night with a fair sky and overnight lows in the low 50s.  Sunday looks even warmer with sunshine and an afternoon high in the low/mid 80s (70s mountains).

The warmth of the weekend should stick around for most of next week.  Partly sunny Monday through Thursday with afternoon highs in the mid and even upper 80s with morning lows in the upper 50s.

More cloud cover should begin to move in by next Friday.  The next chance for showers and thunderstorms locally should probably hold off until next weekend.  Long range computer models tend to favor better rain chances for next Sunday (Mother's Day) as opposed to the day before on Saturday.  Of course, more details on this in the days ahead!

Even longer range projections still show a possible cooler than normal pattern during the period from May 15th-17th.   As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Warming Up Through The Weekend & Next Week

05/01/14

Temperatures should be cool again tonight with mid 40s under a fair sky. A mix of sun and clouds Friday with afternoon temperatures in the low 70s (60s mountains). There is a slight chance for an afternoon shower Friday, but aside from that chance, the pattern looks very dry for the weekend and next week.

More sun than clouds on Saturday with mid 70s, then sunny and around 80 by Sunday. A Summer preview next week with mid 80s each afternoon next week!

David Glenn




Improving Weather Through Late Week and Into The Weekend

04/30/14

Pesky areas of light rain will gradually taper off this evening moving off to the east. Drier and cooler overnight with upper 40s. Partly sunny and a little cooler than normal for the first day of May. Expect an afternoon high in the upper 60s, then mid 40s Thursday night. A cloud/sun mix Friday and low 70s by afternoon.

The upcoming weekend looks nice with 70s Saturday and even some low 80s Sunday. Mid 80s are possible for next week.

David




Keeping An Eye On Severe Weather

04/29/14

Strong to severe storms remain a possibility into the evening and overnight hours. The afternoon sunshine continues to heat things up and allows for the atmosphere to remain unstable. The Storm Prediction Center continues to keep the Tennessee Valley in the "Slight Risk" category for severe storms. Within that category, it places our local risk for tornadoes at 5% and risk of storms with damaging wind gusts at 30%. The higher risk factor (Moderate Risk) is centered well to our south in central and southern Alabama.

So, a lot to keep an eye on through tonight. We will continue to monitor the storms to our south and west for any potential to pose a threat to the Tennessee Valley. Aside from the possibility of severe storms, heavy rain and resulting flash flooding is also an issue through tonight.

By Wednesday, residual rain showers should taper off and the atmosphere should become more stable, so no severe weather expected by then. Dry and seasonal conditions for the remainder of the work week.

As always, you can depend on us for updates!




Chance for Severe Weather Monday Night into Tuesday Morning

unset

With today's anniversary of the April 27th, 2011 tornadoes, nobody really wants to hear that the possibility of more severe weather is on the way.

An approaching cold front will be slowly sliding across the country over the next few days. Ahead of it: warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico is pumping into the southeast. Combined with an approaching trough tomorrow night, the stage will be set for severe weather.

The time frame looks to be late Monday night into Tuesday morning. The threats for this system are strong damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes. By the time the system arrives in our area, the storms should have organized into a squall line of severe storms. The biggest threat will be damaging straight-line winds along the line where the storms bow out, or have a slight bulge ahead of the line. Isolated tornadoes will be possible between the stronger cells along the lines where the wind shear is the greatest. Hail will be possible in all areas.

The graphics attached show that as of Sunday morning, the Severe Prediction Center has our viewing area in a slight risk, however the moderate risk is just to the west. This is one of the reason's we are keeping a very close eye on this system. Any shift to the east will put our western half of the viewing area in that moderate risk. The other cause for concern is shown in the other graphic attached. While the 'bulls-eye" for severe weather is off to the west (coinciding with the moderate risk), the hatched area in black covers our viewing area indicating significant severe weather is possible. For us that means straight line winds over 80 mph are possible as well as isolated tornadoes of EF2 or above.

The most important thing yo can do right now is to prepare. You can't outrun severe weather. In fact do not ever attempt to in a vehicle.  Make sure you and your family have talked about your plan and where the safest part of your home is. For most foundation structures, it is the most interior room on the lowest floor. NO PART OF A MOBILE HOME IS SAFE. As counter-intuitive as it sounds, the best thing to do is find a ditch outside to lie in face down with your hands over the back of your head.

If you have a weather radio, make sure the batteries are fresh, the antenna is up and most importantly that the power switch is flipped to 'ON'. With the severe threat moving in overnight, a weather radio will be the most effective tool you can have to alert you wo watches and warnings as quickly as possible.

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Anniversary of the April 27, 2011 Tornado Outbreak

04/26/14

Anniversary of the April 27th, 2011 Tornado Outbreak


On the night of April 26th, 2011, I was having dinner with my family.  My wife knew that I had been concerned for days about the upcoming weather pattern for the next day.  She asked me, "what does your gut tell you?".  I told her, "it's the same as I felt the day before Hurricane Katrina.....this system could be very bad".  She knew I was serious.  When I worked in Mobile, AL, she and my sons had to evacuate north 3 times in one year due to the strong hurricanes of 2004-2005.  Hurricane Katrina being the worst.  She knew that we could not really evacuate for something like this. So, we spent the length of our dinner discussing the safety plan for our house and made sure my sons were clear on what to do.  Likewise, the bulk of my broadcast time that Tuesday night was spent urging viewers to do the same.  Be Prepared and Stay Alert!

Meteorologists can get a gauge of the "potential" energy within a developing storm system by looking at various computer model indices.  One such equation or index is called the SWEAT index which stands for "Severe Weather Threat" index.  It takes into account the stability of the atmosphere and the wind profile.  A SWEAT index of over 400 means that supercell storms are likely with some that could produce strong tornadoes.  The projected SWEAT index for April 27th was 527!  I had never seen this before.  Two different computer model runs on April 26th yielded totals above 500.  I then emailed my boss, Tom Henderson, to give him a brief on my thoughts for the next day.  I told him exactly what I told my wife..."I have never seen anything like this before locally and it could be very bad".  I closed the email with this quote..."I hope I am wrong".  If there was ever a forecast when I wanted to be wrong, it was this one.

The next day saw our weather team stay on the air continuously for nearly 18 hours.  Only having a short 15 minute break after 1pm.  Bill Race had done a tremendous job during the morning hours.  It was like watching an aerial assault unfold.  A literal conveyor belt of supercells constantly moving in from the southwest.  I cannot tell you how many times we said "hunker down" or "get to your safe place"....for you can never say it enough in this type of situation.  Jason Disharoon and I spent those long hours analyzing those storms right down to street level to be as detailed as possible on what areas could be affected.  Often times there would be several warnings in effect at the same time.  Our newsroom staff likewise worked the same long hours gathering information from across the viewing area.  Some out in the elements covering the damage as storms continued to move through.

At 6pm I sent a text to my wife urging her to get to the basement as yet another supercell was sprinting toward downtown Chattanooga and our house on Missionary Ridge.  I received a reply from her stating..."OK, we are in the basement".  30 minutes later, Tom Henderson motioned for me to step off camera and for Jason to take over.  Tom told me that he had just received a phone call from my neighbor that a tree had struck our house.  I knew immediately which tree it was.  It was the huge oak tree in my neighbor's yard that had a natural lean toward my house.  I immediately called my wife and with each ring I kept saying "pick up...pick up...pick up".  She finally answered in a chipper voice and said "hey".  I said, "are you all ok?".  She assured me that they were fine, but she knew nothing about the tree.  They had heard nothing.  I asked her to take a look upstairs and upon getting there she confirmed that the tree had indeed sideswiped the house puncturing the roof.  She said that the house was still fine, but leaking.  I wanted to go home and check on them, but she told me that they would be okay and to keep broadcasting.  It was a brief sense of relief, because I knew that the storms continued to rage and lives were at risk.

It was truly painful watching these monster storms roll over our local communities.  We kept pleading for folks to get to safety and take these warnings seriously.  With each passing storm we were getting the dreadful news of damage and injuries.  And, it only escalated through the night.  The last Tornado Warning expired shortly after midnight.  We then broadcasted our normal 11pm newscast at that time.  I sat at the news desk with Kim and Calvin.  We rolled on some raw video of the damage in Ringgold.  They both asked me my thoughts.  I simply could not speak.  Emotionally drained and tears welling up, there were just no words.  Taking a deep breath and gaining my composure I had to get right back to the task of discussing the current radar trends and detailing when all the storms would end.

Our marathon storm coverage ended after 1am.  Time was still spent updating our web site and making sure every square mile of our viewing area was out of danger.  I was finally able to go home around 2am.  It was a silent drive home with periods of trembling lips and tears.  I arrived home to a dark house because of no power.  Everyone was asleep in the den so as to stay together.  I just sat there in the dark watching them all sleep.  For as thankful as I was for their safety, I felt guilty.  I knew that many others were not as fortunate.  I never slept.   

People often ask me what it was like during those long hours of broadcasting that day.  It's a question that is very hard to answer.  Yes, the hours were long and it seemed the storms would never end.  It was an emotionally stressful day as you can imagine as we all felt that way.  It was challenging because so many people were losing power, so we had to explore every avenue possible for people to receive storm warnings (via radio & smart phone).  But, in the end, it was sad.  One of the saddest days of my life.  You have probably heard the term "heavy heart".  Mine felt like an anvil.  People in my hometown area had suffered a devastating blow.  Some lost their homes, while other lost their lives.    

From time to time people will tell me that what we did April 27th saved lives.  While I appreciate those comments I am still reminded of those that did not survive.  How can our coverage be better?  That is a question I challenge myself with constantly.  For as much technology we have available, we can still be better.  One of the most important ways is making sure people are receiving storm warnings.  As I mentioned earlier, the massive loss of electrical power on April 27th was limiting how some people were receiving warnings.  Without a TV, cell phone or radio, some were left without a source of information.  Storm sirens are scarce locally and should only be used as last resort.  Having a NOAA weather alert radio is something I have highly recommended for years.  Just days after the tornado outbreak the StormTrack 9 Team began a campaign of traveling to communities across the Tennessee Valley promoting the use of these potential life saving radios.  Thanks to a partnership with Midland & Walgreens, we have placed thousands of new weather alert radios in homes locally.  A portion of the proceeds has also gone to local charities for tornado relief.  And, one year later, our campaign continues.  As I tell everyone, we cannot control the weather, but we can control how we react to severe weather and being better prepared.  We will continue those efforts in the weeks and months ahead.  It has helped me with the healing process.

Three years later, we will still never forget.  I will never forget seeing the damage first hand as we toured the area.  I will also never forget the resilient spirit of my fellow hometown friends and neighbors.  Those who came armed with chainsaws and volunteered countless hours to clear trees.  Those who cooked hundreds of meals.  Those who helped rebuild.  On April 27th, we witnessed the worst in weather.  On April 28th, we saw the best in humanity.  And we still do today.

David Glenn




80s For The Weekend, Then Severe Storms Possible Early Next Week

04/25/14

Afternoon temperatures should reach the 80s both Saturday and Sunday.  Enjoy the warmth because a lot of wet weather could head our way next week along with the possibility of severe storms.

WARM WEEKEND AFTERNOONS

Saturday should get off to a brief cool start with temperatures in the mid/upper 40s.  But, expect a quick warm up with sunshine and afternoon temperatures reaching the low 80s (70s mountains).  A fair sky with mid 50s Saturday night.  Sunday looks just as warm with highs in the low/mid 80s.  More cloud cover should mix in with the sun through the day.  I am even including a slight chance for a few passing showers during the afternoon.

SEVERE STORM POSSIBILITY NEXT WEEK

We all need to stay "weather aware" Monday through Wednesday.  You will start to hear about the severe weather to our west through the course of the weekend.

By Monday, some scattered showers and a few storms are possible, though the best coverage could occur later into Monday night.  The severe risk locally Monday looks low with the better chance to the west.  But, we'll keep an eye on that trend in the days ahead.

Now, just based on observing model data the past few days, it looks as if there could be two threats of severe storms locally.  The first could be late Monday night and into Tuesday morning.  The other could be late Tuesday and into early Wednesday.  You have to keep in mind that there will be a lot of timing differences because factors change as the system develops and thunderstorm complexes form.  A severe threat means that some storms could produce damaging wind gusts, large hail and even tornadoes.  The threat level should become a bit clearer in the days ahead.

Rainfall occurring ahead of each system could also affect the chance of severe storms.  So, there is going to be a lot to watch in the days ahead.  You can depend on us to keep you updated in the days ahead.  What you should do this weekend is take some time to make sure that you have a safety plan at home & work.  Also, make sure that you have a means of receiving weather alerts (NOAA Weather Alert Radio & StormTrack 9 App).  If you use a NOAA alert radio, please make sure that you have fresh batteries as a back up power source.

One other factor that we will be closely following is the threat of heavy rainfall.  There are HUGE differences in the various computer model forecasts as to the rainfall projections.   For example, the European Model favors light amounts locally (around 1"), but the GFS Model projects up to 3" locally.

So, a lot to watch in the days ahead.  And, again, you can depend on us for updates right here on the Blog and during each newscast!

David Glenn




Wet Start Friday, Followed By A Warm Weekend

04/24/14

Showers and storms will be possible to begin the day Friday, then drier and breezy through the afternoon.  80s are on tap for the upcoming weekend with sunshine.

Spring severe storms are possible for early next week.

SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY MORNING

A cool front should pass through the viewing area early Friday morning.  This should result in some showers and a few thunderstorms for the morning commute hours.  The risk of severe storms locally remains very low.  As always, we will continue to monitor this through the morning hours.

The showers and storms should quickly end mid to late morning.  The rest of the afternoon should be drier and breezy.  Afternoon highs should reach the mid 70s along with an increasing west wind at 10-20mph,

A clearing sky and much cooler Friday night with a low in the mid 40s.

MUCH WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND

After a cool start Saturday morning in the 40s, the rest of the day looks sunny with an afternoon high in the low 80s (70s mountains).  Even warmer on Sunday!  A partly sunny sky with an afternoon high in the mid 80s.  The 80s should stick around for Monday as well, but that is when local weather conditions begin to go downhill.

STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

Before I begin this discussion it should be noted that I do not comment on forecasts posted by others.  I respect their weather discussions and likewise I expect the same from them.  So, please understand that my thoughts about the upcoming weather pattern into next week are right here on the blog and it will continue to be updated in the days ahead.

A common questions I am asked is, "Will the storms be like April 27th?".    There is simply no way to answer that question.  Why?  Because  that was such a huge outbreak that cannot be compared to others.  It stands alone.  During my years on the Gulf Coast, people would ask me if the upcoming hurricane season would be busy.  My answer was always the same...."It doesn't matter, all it takes is one storm".  As an example, 1992 was a "below" normal year for hurricanes.  Try telling that to the folks in south Florida and Louisiana who suffered from Hurricane Andrew.  To them, it was the worst hurricane season ever.

EVERY threat of severe weather each Spring should ALWAYS be taken seriously.  And, as I stated about hurricanes, the threat of tornadoes is the same.  All it takes is one storm for you to experience what many people experienced on April 27, 2011.

So, let's discuss the latest information about next week.  Please understand that a lot could change in the days ahead.  By late Monday and into Tuesday a low pressure system could move eastward out of the Mississippi Valley.  This could bring the possible chance of strong to severe storms across the Southeast and Tennessee Valley.  Right now, my best advice is to stay weather aware.  This means that the possibility is there for severe storms during that time frame.  As for how strong and when remains a question.  Model data this far out can have huge timing errors.

A second low pressure system could move across the region late Tuesday night and early Wednesday.  And, like the first system, based on the overall setup, some of the storms have the possibility of becoming strong to severe.  This means that with both systems a few storms could produce damaging wind gusts & hail.  Tornadoes cannot be ruled out.  As early next week draws closer, model data should become a bit clearer as to the overall threat and timing.

Later Wednesday should mainly be leftover rain after a possible round of storms on the leading edge of the low pressure system and cold front.  Temperatures should also become much cooler.  80s on Monday, then 70s Tuesday.  By mid to late week, afternoon highs should fall into the 60s as the cooler air moves in.  Morning lows could be in the 40s locally by late week.

As always, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team to keep you updated in the days ahead!

David Glenn




Warmer Thursday, Then A Few Showers Friday Morning

04/23/14

Another nice day can be expected locally Thursday, followed by a quick round of showers early Friday.  The weekend looks dry and very warm with 80s each afternoon!

WARMER THURSDAY

Thursday morning should be clear and quite cool with temperatures in the low/mid 40s.  A quick warm up through the afternoon with a sunny to partly sunny sky and afternoon temperatures in the mid/upper 70s.  A steady southerly breeze at 10-15mph.  Clouds should quickly move in Thursday night with low temperatures only near 60.

FRIDAY MORNING SHOWERS

A fast moving cool front should push through the viewing area Friday morning.  This should create a good coverage of showers locally for the morning commute, but quickly ending before midday.  The rest of the afternoon should be drier and breezy.  Afternoon highs should stay warm in the mid/upper 70s.

80S FOR THE WEEKEND

The last weekend of April looks very nice!  A cool start Saturday morning with low 50s, but rapidly warming to the low 80s (70s mountains) by the afternoon under a partly sunny sky.  A few more clouds should stream in Sunday, but it should be even warmer with afternoon temperatures in the low/mid 80s.

SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY & TUESDAY

The start of the work week should become increasingly wetter and stormy.  A strong low pressure system should bring a better coverage of showers and storms later in the day Monday and continuing through Tuesday.  A few storms on Tuesday could be strong to severe.  We will continue to monitor this chance and keep you updated in the days ahead.  Showers could linger behind the system well into Wednesday.

Rainfall amounts could range from 1"-2" locally.  We certainly do not want any severe weather, but the rainfall is needed as we are nearing a 5" rainfall deficit for the year.

MUCH COOLER TO START THE MONTH OF MAY

A cool spell in May locally is often called "Blackberry Winter".  And, it looks as if that will be possible for mid to late next week to kick off the month of May.

High temperatures should be in the 70s through Tuesday.  Then, only near 60 by Wednesday.  That means that some local spots could stay in the 50s for highs by midweek.  And, these cooler than normal temperatures could continue through late next week with highs only near 60 and lows possibly dipping as low as the upper 30s in spots.  Again, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Wet Weather Returns Tuesday

04/21/14

Rainfall for 2014 in Chattanooga stands at 12.84", which is 4.69" below normal.  The month of April so far has been close to normal with a total of 2.87".  That is 0.07" above normal.  And, we should add to the rain gauge total on Tuesday!

RAIN RETURNS TUESDAY

A cool front begins a slow approach to the Tennessee Valley Tuesday which should result in a good coverage of rain on Tuesday.  Rainfall should begin prior to sunrise Tuesday and continue "off and on" through the afternoon.  Some thundershowers are possible, though the risk of severe storms locally remains very low.

Model forecast data does not reflect any excessive amounts of rain, so the risk of flooding remains low as well.  Steady rainfall amounts could range from 0.30" to 0.50".  As is always the case around the large viewing area, some local spots could both be slightly higher and/or lower.

Rain should end quickly from west to east by late afternoon and early evening followed by drier and cooler conditions through Tuesday night with lows in the mid 40s.

SUNSHINE RETURNS WEDNESDAY

A beautiful day is expected for Wednesday.  Temperatures should be a tad cooler with highs in the 60s (mountains) to low 70s (valley).  Breezy at times as well due to a west-northwest wind at 10-15mph.

Mid 40s again for Thursday morning, followed by a partly sunny sky by afternoon and highs in the upper 70s.

SHOWERS/T-SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY

A fast moving system could move in from the northwest late Thursday night and Friday morning resulting in a chance for scattered showers and t-showers.  It looks like that most of the showers should move out during the afternoon with highs back in the upper 70s. 

Warm 70s should continue each afternoon of the weekend along with scattered cloud cover.  A few showers could move back in late Sunday, but a better chance into Monday and Tuesday of next week along with cooler temperatures.

David Glenn




Clouds Return Friday, Some Rain Possible

04/17/14

Skies should become cloudy Friday and temperatures just a tad cooler in the low/mid 60s.  Some rain is possible, but it looks like the best chance should be over southern portions of the viewing area late Friday and into Friday Night.

FRIDAY CLOUDS AND A LITTLE COOLER

Clouds should continue to stream in from the south as a Gulf system moves along the coast and toward the east/northeast.  That Gulf system could bring heavy rain along the coast and into southern parts of Alabama and Georgia.  We will have to keep an eye on the progress of that system during the day Friday and into Friday night.  Most of the forecast model guidance keeps the heavy rain chances well to our south.  But, there could be enough moisture pushing far enough north that some rain could occur over the southern and eastern portions of the viewing area.  That best chance occurring late Friday and into Friday night.

Due to the cloud cover and a steady breeze from the northeast, daytime temperatures Friday could be below average in the low/mid 60s.  Mid 40s possible through Friday night and early Saturday

WEEKEND WARMUP

We will continue to keep an eye on that Gulf system as it could linger to our south and even keep cloud cover in place locally Saturday.  That, of course, could affect afternoon temperatures.  Still, some rain could occur over southern and eastern parts of the viewing area Saturday morning.  If the models are accurate and that system pulls away to the south and east, then locally we should have a mix of sun and clouds and warmer temperatures through the afternoon in the low 70s.

Easter Sunday still looks nice!  Sunrise is at 7:03amET.  At that time, skies should be fair with temperatures in the mid/upper 40s.  The rest of the day Sunday should be sunny to partly sunny with an afternoon high in the mid 70s.

David Glenn




Freezing Temps Wednesday Morning, Followed By A Warming Trend

04/15/14

Near record low temperatures below freezing could occur for Wednesday morning.  But, after this brief return of wintry temperatures, warmer air should move in for late week.

FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 10AM WEDNESDAY

Overnight temperatures should drop to near 30 in Chattanooga, but into the 20s in areas away from the city.  Take precautions to protect tender plants!  Please provide your pets with a warm place to stay!

After sunrise, there should be a quick warm up with temperatures by late afternoon in the upper 50s (mountains) to lower 60s (valley).

WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND

Thursday should be warmer through the afternoon, but not before another chilly morning in the mid/upper 30s.  By afternoon, temperatures should reach the upper 60s under a sunny to partly sunny sky.

More clouds through Friday and even a slight chance for a few showers.  Afternoon temperatures should again reach the upper 60s.  The weekend should be warmer each day, but with more clouds than sun.  Low 70s Saturday and low/mid 70s by Easter Sunday.  Temperatures Easter Sunday morning should be in the upper 40s for early morning sunrise services.  Sunrise is at 7:03amET!

David Glenn




Beautiful Weekend Ahead

unset

As high pressure continues to dominate the southeast, expect the dry skies and warming temperatures to continue. The clear skies mean another chilly night ahead, but it won't be as cold as we saw this morning. Overnight lows will only dip into the mid to upper 40s.

Tomorrow, a few clouds may move in by the afternoon, but overall mostly sunny skies for your Friday as highs climb into the mid to upper 70s. It's a picture perfect way to end the week. The great news is that the warming trend will continue into the weekend as highs approach 80 degrees under partly cloudy skies.

The picture perfect party comes to an end though Monday as a cold front sweeps through the area. Showers and thunderstorms will roll through, and a few could be on the stronger side. The system exits Tuesday with colder air moving in behind it.




Wet Trend Continues... For Now

unset

After a very wet start to the week, only a few isolated showers continued into the afternoon. That will remain the story for the next 18 hours or so. There's plenty of gulf moisture in the atmosphere so it won't be surprising if a few more showers are squeezed out through Tuesday morning. However, a trough swinging through late Tuesday afternoon will provide enough lift for another round of possibly heavy rain. Thankfully it won't last too long.

By Wednesday, clearing skies will return with highs in the upper 60s. And crystal clear skies will dominate the back half of the week with highs in the middle to upper 70s. By the weekend, partly cloudy skies and mid 70s with dry skies. Our next chance of rain may arrive next Monday.




A Dry Start, But Wet End To The Weekend

04/04/14

The weekend should get off to a nice start.  Granted, it should be a little cooler than it has been, but sunny Saturday afternoon.  Rain returns late Sunday and the rainfall could be heavy at times through Monday.

SUNNY, COOLER SATURDAY

Saturday should be a very nice day to start the first weekend of April!  Morning temperatures should be in the low 40s, then sunny with mid 60s by afternoon.  Clouds should creep back in Saturday night with a low in the low 40s.

WETTER LATE SUNDAY & INTO MONDAY

Sunday looks cloudy with highs in the low/mid 60s.  A deep southerly flow begins to spread Gulf moisture back into the Southeast and Tennessee Valley.  The chance for rain increases locally later in the afternoon and into Sunday night.  A strong low pressure system should pass our local viewing area to the west.  This puts us on the strong east side of the system.  This means that heavy rain could occur Sunday night and Monday along with the chance of some strong thunderstorms.

The best timing of heavy rain should be late Sunday night and the first half of Monday.  Rainfall projections show a possible local average of around 2".  But, there could be some locally higher amounts in spots.

The risk of heavy rain starts to taper later Monday with lighter amounts Monday night and early Tuesday.  As always, you can depend on us for updates on this system.

DRIER AND COOLER BY WEDNESDAY

The drier and cooler conditions should begin to move in through the day Tuesday and especially Wednesday.  A bit of "Dogwood Winter" as morning temperatures could dip into the upper 30s & lower 40s Wednesday morning.  Afternoon highs still below normal for early April with low 60s.

WARMER LATE NEXT WEEK

A dry pattern should continue through the end of next week.  Warmer temperatures should follow as afternoon highs return to near 70 by Thursday, then mid 70s Friday.  Likewise, each morning should be a little milder with 40s Thursday and 50s Friday.

David Glenn




Severe Storms Remain Possible Friday

04/03/14

A cold front moving through the Tennessee Valley Friday could cause the development of some strong to severe storms during the morning and afternoon.

"SLIGHT RISK" OF SEVERE STORMS

The Storm Prediction Center maintains the "Slight Risk" category locally for the chance of severe storms Friday.  This means that 15% of thunderstorms could reach severe levels with damaging wind gusts and large hail.  The threat of isolated tornadoes remains low, but as always we will keep a close eye on this system.

The best timing of the storms locally should be after sunrise Friday and through lunch time.  As the main front moves through during the early to mid afternoon, there could be a redevelopment of some showers and storms.

By Friday evening, most of the rain should quickly exit from west to east, then drier and cooler with overnight lows in the mid 40s.

ACTIVE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY

After a brief break in the weather pattern Saturday, rain could begin to creep back in from the south Sunday afternoon and evening.  A strong low pressure system should pass to our west, putting our local viewing area on the active east side of the low.  This means that rainfall could be heavy at times Monday along with another possibility of some strong to severe thunderstorms.

We will need to keep an eye on rainfall trends as both the GFS and European Model remain in agreement of the possibility that up to 2" of rain could occur across the viewing area with the bulk of that on Monday.

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Severe Storms Possible Friday

04/02/14

As temperatures begin to warm, an approaching cold front Friday brings the chance of strong to severe storms.

SHOWER & STORM CHANCES INCREASING

As the upper level pattern starts to change, high pressure to our southeast should start to weaken and allow a cold front to move through on Friday.  We also will watch a few disturbances to our west and northwest that could even bring a few showers/t-showers through the local viewing area late Wednesday night and early Friday morning.  Right now, the risk of severe storms with this chance looks to stay well to our west, but we will continue to watch this.

Other than the chance for an early morning t-shower Thursday, the risk for rain remains low.  Thursday should be cloudy, breezy and warm with afternoon highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s along with a southwest wind at 10-15mph.

Through Thursday night, skies should be cloudy and it will remain breezy.  Very late in the night, some showers and storms could begin to move in from the west.  A better coverage of showers and storms locally could occur Friday morning through early afternoon as the approaching cold front pushes a line of storms through the viewing area.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Tennessee Valley and Southeast in the "Slight Risk" category due to a 15% chance of storms reaching severe levels with damaging wind gusts and hail.  The tornado threat remains low, but not zero.  It is Spring, and we will be closely monitoring these storms as they approach.

The chance for showers and storms should decrease from west to east through the afternoon and early evening.

DRIER AND COOLER SATURDAY

Saturday should be cooler and drier with a partly sunny sky.  However, afternoon temperatures should only reach the mid/upper 60s with morning lows in the 40s.

RAIN COULD RETURN LATE SUNDAY

It still looks as if rain could move back in late Sunday and then continue through Sunday night and Monday.  Rainfall amounts could be heavy Monday with model projections showing a range from 1.5"-2.3".  Rain could linger into Tuesday before drying on Wednesday.

COOLER THAN NORMAL......AGAIN!

Cooler than normal temperatures (Dogwood Winter) could settle in through midweek next week.  High temperatures in the 50s to only near 60 Tuesday and Wednesday with morning lows in the low 40s (30s in spots).  So, get ready to grab the jackets yet again.

Longer range patterns show a nice warm up after this cool spell that could start late week and continue into the following weekend.

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




No Foolin'...April Begins With Warm Temperatures!

03/31/14

March 2014 was a typical month of up and down temperatures.  But, finally, some Spring warmth settles in just in time to begin April!

MARCH 2014:  DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER

Winter just didn't seem to want to go away, but warm temperatures did battle back at times.  The average temperature in Chattanooga for March 2014 was around 50.7 degrees which as around 1.3 degrees below average for the month.  10 of the past 14 months have had temperatures at or below normal!

Rainfall for the month at Lovell Field was 2.38".  This was less than half of the normal value for a typical March in Chattanooga.  March is typically one of the wettest months of the year on average in Chattanooga.  However, the cooler, drier pattern prevailed.  It was far from the driest ever March.  That record still belongs to March 1910 when only 0.93" of rain was recorded.

WARM WEATHER TO BEGIN APRIL

Tuesday may be April Fool's Day, but this is not a joke......very warm temperatures can be expected for most of the work week!   Morning clouds Tuesday should give way to a mix of sun and clouds.  Afternoon temperatures should reach the mid/upper 70s.  A few spots south could record temperatures as high as 80!  More sun on Wednesday should have more areas locally reaching 80 or higher by the afternoon.  Clouds should return Thursday along with an increasing southwesterly wind, but afternoon temperatures could again reach near 80.

SHOWERS & STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY

An approaching cold front could bring showers and thunderstorms back to the Tennessee Valley from late Thursday and into Friday.  There is the possibility that some of the storms could be strong.  It is still early and forecast model data will show a clearer picture in the days ahead of our chances for any severe storms.  Nevertheless, it is a system that we will be keeping an eye on during the days ahead.

Drier and slightly cooler conditions should return for Saturday with some sunshine and temperatures reaching the upper 60s to around 70.

Longer range forecast model data varies quite a bit for late this weekend and early next week.  The more reliable European Model has consistently been indicating the possible return or rain by late next Sunday and even some thunderstorms by next Monday.

So, plenty to watch during the days ahead.  Until then, enjoy the warm temperatures.....finally!!!!!

David Glenn




Soggy Start To Saturday......Sunny Sunday!

03/28/14

The last weekend of March should be soggy to begin with, but end with some sunshine for Sunday.  The sunny, dry conditions should continue into next week along with much warmer afternoons in the 70s.

SOGGY, THEN WINDY SATURDAY

A good coverage of rain and some thunderstorms can be expected as we begin Saturday.  The threat of severe weather remains low, but we will continue to monitor this!  As a cold front moves through by early afternoon, the showers and storms should end from west to east.  Temperatures should reach the low/mid 60s by early afternoon.

By mid/late afternoon, expect windy conditions behind the cold front.  An increasing wind from the north-northwest at 10-20mph and gusty could cool temperatures to the 50s by sunset.  Overnight temperatures by Sunday morning should drop into the upper 30s.

SUNNY SUNDAY

After a chilly start to the day Sunday, expect a lot of sunshine and low humidity through the afternoon.  Afternoon temperatures should be just a little below average for late March in the low/mid 60s.  Another chilly night Sunday night with upper 30s possible.

WARMING UP NEXT WEEK

Finally, some nice Spring weather can be expected with some of the warmest afternoons since last Fall.  Sunny to partly sunny for Monday through Wednesday with afternoon highs in the mid 70s and morning lows in the 40s (Tuesday & Wednesday).

The 70s should continue Thursday along with increasing cloud cover.  Some showers are possible by Thursday afternoon and night.  It looks like there could be a better chance for rain and even some Spring time thunderstorms by next Friday.  That is still days away, but we will continue to keep an eye on that system in the days ahead.

As always, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team for updates!

David Glenn




Wet For Friday Through Saturday Morning

03/27/14

2013 was wetter than normal in Chattanooga. However, 2014 has started off dry. -4.74" for the year and -2.58" for March.  A wetter pattern should settle in for Friday and the first half of Saturday.

SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS FRIDAY

A better coverage of showers and storms can be expected beginning during the early morning hours of Friday.  Then, off and on showers and thunderstorms will be possible for most of the day.  There could be a lesser coverage into the late afternoon.  While some thunderstorms are possible locally, the overall risk of severe storms (damaging wind and large hail) remains low through Friday night.

Still breezy at times Friday with a south-southwest wind at 10-15mph and afternoon temperatures in the mid 60s.

WET FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY

A cold front should slowly move through the viewing area Saturday morning and through early afternoon.  This should keep the chance of showers and some thunderstorms in the local forecast.  The front should sweep the showers away during the afternoon.  Overall rainfall amounts could average above 1" locally.  But, due to the scattered nature of some slower moving thundershowers, the potential is there for some local spots to receive up to 2" while much less in other not experiencing storms.

After the frontal passage early Saturday afternoon, it should become breezy due to an increasing northwest wind at 10-20mph.  Temperatures should reach the mid 60s, though falling a bit by late afternoon as the drier air moves in.

DRY & SUNNY SUNDAY

Sunday should be a beautiful day to round out the weekend.  A chilly start to the day with upper 30s, but mid 60s should be possible during the afternoon as skies remain sunny.

As always, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team for updates!

David Glenn




Temperatures Increasing And So Will The Chance For Rain

03/26/14

Temperatures should finally increase in the days ahead, but so will the chance for rain by Friday and the start of the weekend.  Some strong storms could occur as well.

NOT QUITE AS COLD THURSDAY MORNING

After the hard freeze conditions Wednesday morning, temperatures will still be chilly Thursday morning, but fewer areas below freezing.  Expect low temperatures from 32 to 36 on average.  However, some outlying areas and those north (& mountains) could still briefly slip below 32 degrees.

The rest of Thursday should be milder, but with increasing clouds.  Afternoon highs should reach the lower 60s (50s mountains).  And, it could be breezy at times during the afternoon as the wind increases from the south at 10-15mph.

A milder night Thursday night with lows only dropping to the lower 50s and even some showers moving in late.

SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY

The coverage of showers increases locally for most of the day Friday.  Along with the showers comes the possibility of some strong to severe storms during the afternoon and night.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed the western third of our viewing area in the "Slight Risk" category for the possibility that a few storms could have large hail and damaging wind gusts.  The tornado threat remains low, but as always we will closely monitor this through Friday night.

Even with the clouds, showers and possible storms, afternoon temperatures should continue to warm into the mid/upper 60s.

SHOWERS SATURDAY, BUT DRIER SUNDAY

It will probably take until Saturday afternoon to have the storm system exit the Tennessee Valley.  This means that some showers and even a few storms could still occur Saturday morning and early afternoon.  By late afternoon and evening, drier air should begin to move in.  Afternoon temperatures Saturday should be in the mid 60s and cooling to near 40 late Saturday night.

Sunday looks drier with sunshine returning.  Expect afternoon highs in the mid 60s.  The gradual warming trend should continue into early next week with highs from 70-72 both Monday and Tuesday!

David Glenn




Hard Freeze Tonight, Then Warmer In The Days Ahead!

03/25/14

Tonight:  Any remaining snow showers and flurries ending. Much colder with a hard freeze.  An overnight low in the mid 20s (near 20 north and mountains).  Strong wind gusts during the evening at 15-25mph and gusty from the NW, then around 10mph late in the night.

Wednesday:  Sunny with a high in the upper 40s to low 50s.


Wednesday Night:  Increasing clouds and not as cold with a low from 32-36.


Dry with warming temperatures Thursday and low 60s by afternoon.  But, on Friday, expect showers and even some thunderstorms to roll in. We will likely see some showers and storms for the first half of the day on Saturday.  Once that system moves out, the weekend should be drier and seasonal with mid 60s Sunday and near 70 Monday.




Winter Returns For A Short Time

03/24/14

Tonight:  Increasing clouds with a brief period of flurries or rain shower late.  Low in the mid to upper 30s.  An increasing wind from the northwest at 15-20mph late.  Some accumulation possible at higher elevations of the Blue Ridge Mtns through morning.

Tuesday:  Windy and cold.  A mix of clouds and sun along with some occasional showers passing through (even some snowflakes mixed in) with a high near 50.  It will fee much colder because of the strong northwest wind at 15-30mph and gusty.


Tuesday Night:  Clearing and much colder with a hard freeze.  An overnight low in the mid 20s (near 20 north and mountains)


Wednesday:  Sunny and much cooler than normal with a high only in the upper 40s to near 50.


Dry with warming temperatures Thursday and Friday.  But, on Friday, expect showers and even some thunderstorms to roll in.  The chance continues into Friday night and early Saturday morning.  Once that system moves out, the weekend should be drier and seasonal with upper 60s Saturday and lower 70s Sunday.


David Glenn




The First Weekend Of Spring

03/21/14

It's Spring.....But, it's also still March!  So, no surprise that a changeable weather pattern can be expected for the next few days.

STILL SEASONAL SATURDAY

Cloud cover for most of Saturday, but temperatures should remain near seasonal levels with 40s during the morning and upper 60s to near 70 early afternoon.  Some showers are possible, especially into the afternoon.  But, rainfall amounts look light and showers mainly scattered.

The better chance for rain will be possible later Saturday night and into Sunday morning.  Temperatures by early Sunday morning should be in the mid 40s.

WET, WINDY & COOL SUNDAY

A wet start to Sunday with periods of rain through midday and tapering off into the afternoon.  Rainfall amounts projected by forecast guidance models average around 0.30".  Some slightly higher amounts in spots south.  But, it should also be windy at times and much cooler as high temperatures should remain in the 50s.  A brisk north wind at 15-20mph will make it feel even colder.

COLDER THAN NORMAL WEEK AHEAD

The colder trend that begins Sunday, should continue into next week.  Temperatures by Monday morning could be right around the freezing mark of 32.  Then, sunny to partly sunny with only mid 50s through the afternoon.

Another round of colder air moves in Tuesday along with some precipitation as well.  There still exists a chance for a wintry mix to rain Tuesday morning and into the afternoon.  We will be keeping an eye on any accumulation chance. With this "mix" chance during the morning and into the daylight hours, temperatures could be above freezing valley and possibly only a higher elevation concern.  But, it's still early and we will keep you updated on this as it still a bit early to speculate too much.

Some flurries/light snow showers "wrapping around" a strong low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast could be possible into Tuesday night.  Temperatures could also dip into the mid/upper 20s Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. 

Sunshine returns Wednesday, but highs could only be in the 40s to near 50.  Near freezing again Thursday morning with lows from 30-32, but reaching the 50s by Thursday afternoon.  The warming trend continues Friday with highs in the 60s and morning lows well above freezing.

The next round of showers and even some thunderstorms could occur next Saturday (29th).

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Spring Begins, But Winter Doesn't Want To Go Away

03/19/14

Spring officially begins Thursday afternoon.  While we all cheer the changing of the season, the unwelcome guest known as Winter may try to stick around a little while longer.

WELCOME SPRING

Spring will begin at 12:57pmET Thursday...the Vernal Equinox.  After 4 straight cloudy, cool days the sun should finally shine to welcome the new season.  Expect an afternoon high in the low/mid 60s by Thursday afternoon.

Dry and cold Thursday night with an overnight low in the mid/upper 30s.  Then, expect sunshine Friday with afternoon temperatures near 70!

CLOUDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND

Skies should become cloudy again Saturday.  Some light showers are possible, especially late day and into Saturday night, but mainly scattered.  This chance of light showers could linger into Sunday morning.  It should still be seasonably warm Saturday with highs in the mid/upper 60s.  But, turning much cooler Sunday with highs only in the 50s.

WINTER CHILL RETURNS NEXT WEEK

The upper air pattern for early next week resembles something more like January or February instead of late March.  A cold, arctic high pressure system could park itself to our north over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.  This along with an active pattern along the Gulf coast could make things interesting.  Model data could vary quite a bit in the days ahead.  But, the pattern setup means that we could have to carefully watch our precipitation chances along with temperatures.  It could just be a cold rain with highs in the 40s Tuesday, but some mixing could occur at higher elevations.  But, should this potential Gulf system deepen, then a larger part of the viewing area and Southeast could have some "mixing" going on.  It's way too early to be specific on details, but it's a pattern that has to be closely watched.  And, that's all we can do for now.

As always, you can depend on us for updates in the days ahead.

David Glenn




Winter 2013-2014 Stats

03/19/14

WINTER 2014....IT WAS COLD!

That is the quick answer most of us will remember about the Winter when asked about it.  Even though December had above normal temperatures, the arrival of 2014 also meant several visits by arctic air.  Here is the breakdown of the temperatures by month (based on Lovell Field-Chattanooga observations).

December 2013:  Average Temperature: 44.9 degrees (2.3 degrees ABOVE normal)

January 2014:  Average Temperature: 33.7 degrees (6.8 degrees BELOW normal) (10th coldest January on record in Chattanooga)

February 2014: Average Temperature 43.8 degrees....(0.6 degrees BELOW normal)

An "average" or normal Winter in Chattanooga would have an average temperature of 42.5 degrees for the three month average.  The three month average for Winter 2013-2014 was 40.8 degrees which would be 1.7 degrees below average.  This past winter ranked as the 35th coldest winter in Chattanooga's history.

The big story was the return of arctic air bringing some of the coldest air in years to the Tennessee Valley.  3 separate rounds alone during January.  There were five mornings with temperatures in the single digits.  The coldest was 5 degrees on both January 7th and 30th.  There were some warm days sprinkled in with the warmest Winter day on December 5th with 75 degrees.  There were also some afternoons in the 70s during late February.

ABOVE NORMAL SNOWFALL

That is another big story about the Winter of 2013-2014!  Snowfall really picked up from late January through mid February with a seasonal total through the end of February at 8.4 inches.  1.2 inches on January 28th and 7.2 inches of heavy snow on February 12-13.  The "normal" average seasonal total is 4.8 inches.  The 8.4 inches of snow placed at the 21st highest amount for a winter season in Chattanooga.  #1 on that list is not 1993!  Instead, the record belongs to the Winter of 1917-1918 with 22.2 inches for the season.

Three of the past five winters have had ABOVE average snowfall.  The five year total is over 30 inches!

NORMAL RAINFALL

Rainfall averaged out just slightly above normal.  That's a good thing!  It's never a good sign to start the year with a rainfall deficit.  December was the wettest month of the season with 3.08" ABOVE normal for the month!  January was 2.51" BELOW normal as the dry & bitter cold arctic air dominated for the month.  February was right about normal for rainfall with 5.19" (+0.38").  The seasonal total was 15.57" which was about an inch ABOVE normal for the season.

WINTER FORECAST WORKED OUT WELL

Seasonal forecasts are never easy, but I was very pleased with how we framed up what we expected for the Winter of 2013-2014.  The preseason pattern suggested arctic air at times and I am glad that I put that in our seasonal outlook as the arctic air masses kept moving in during January.  The overall forecast was for below normal temperatures and above normal snow chances.  So, that has been a very good call!   And, with a cooler cycle in the Pacific continuing along with possible El Nino conditions....next winter could be very interesting as well!

David Glenn




Gradually Warmer Through The Week

03/17/14

A cold & dreary St Patrick's Day should give way to a gradual warming trend through the week.

LINGERING CLOUDS AND FOG

The 2 day rainfall total from Sunday through Monday at Lovell Field was 1.26".  The European Model rainfall projection from late last week did very well with the late weekend system as it projected rainfall totals from 1.25"-1.30".

Drizzle and patchy light rain could linger through Monday night before tapering off by early Tuesday morning.  However, some drizzle can be expected within the dense fog layer through the Tuesday morning.  The lingering clouds and fog should eventually break apart late Tuesday morning and toward midday.  This should give way to some sun mixing with the clouds into the afternoon.  As a result, it should be a little warmer with afternoon temperatures ranging from the 50s (mountains) to lower 60s valley.

SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE WEDNESDAY

Another fast moving system should move through locally on Wednesday.  This should bring clouds back and even a few brief showers Wednesday.  Any rainfall amounts should be light.  Aside from the rain chance, temperatures through the afternoon should be warmer with highs reaching the mid 60s.

NICER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

Sunshine should return for Thursday and Friday.  Chilly both mornings with lows in the 30s, but afternoon temperatures on Thursday should reach the upper 60s, then lower 70s possible Friday.  By the way......SPRING BEGINS THURSDAY!!!!!!

SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY

Yet another cold front could move across the Tennessee Valley Saturday.  The rainfall with this system looks light and should lack any severe weather.  The best chance for light showers should be into the afternoon, then drier into the evening.

MUCH COOLER LATE WEEKEND

The Winter that just doesn't want to end should show up again by late weekend as below normal temperatures return.  Afternoon highs should only be in the mid/upper 50s both Sunday and Monday with a chilly morning low in the lower 30s by Monday morning.

Longer range projections show that temperatures the following week into the week of the 24th could again be quite cold again for the Southeast and East.  Winter just does not want to go away!

David Glenn




Warmer Friday, Followed By A Wet Second Half Of The Weekend

03/13/14

After a brief cold snap, temperatures should return to the 60s Friday afternoon.  But, as nice as it will be to end the work week, rain should return for the second half of the weekend.

WARMING UP FRIDAY

Friday morning should again be colder than normal with low temperatures right around the freezing mark.  The rest of the day should be sunny, then partly sunny with afternoon temperatures in the low/mid 60s (upper 50s local mountains).  Breezy through the afternoon as well with an increasing south wind at 10-20mph.  More cloud cover can be expected Friday night with overnight temperatures only dropping into the low 40s.

CLOUDY SATURDAY, SOME RAIN LATE

Most of Saturday should be cloudy with afternoon temperatures in the low 60s.  Some patchy areas of rain possible into the afternoon, but the bulk of the rain moving in from the west should hold off until Saturday night.  We'll continue to keep an eye on that trend!

WET & COOL SUNDAY (AND INTO MONDAY)

Better rain chances for Sunday and cooler.  High temperatures should only reach the mid/upper 50s with the off and on periods of rain.  The slow moving system could allow for this cool and wet pattern to continue well into Monday (St Patrick's Day).  Highs on Monday only reaching the lower 50s (Mountains in the 40s).  The rain should taper off late in the day Monday and into the evening hours.

Rainfall amounts through Sunday and Monday could average above an 1" for most local spots.  Computer forecast guidance shows a rainfall range of 1.30" by the European Model to around 2" by the GFS Model.

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




21st Anniversary of the 1993 Superstorm

03/12/14

A LOOK BACK AT THE 1993 SUPERSTORM

March 12th & 13th mark the 21st anniversary of Superstorm '93.  The historic snowstorm that dumped nearly 2 ft of snow across the Tennessee Valley.

IT STILL SEEMS LIKE YESTERDAY

My how time flies!  It still doesn't seem like 21 years since the Superstorm.  But, one look at the grey hair on my head begs to differ!  Yes, back then I had brown hair and was about 2 years into my career as a broadcast meteorologist here in Chattanooga.  I remember vividly the Monday before the storm seeing some of the longer range computer model outlooks from the LFM & NGM model...(For you forecast model watchers, both models are long gone!).  These models were printed out instead of being viewed on a computer screen.  The storm being projected 4-5 days out was definitely an eyebrow raiser.

And, as each day progressed, the models did not waiver.  In fact, the LFM model was very accurate with this storm.  The problem us forecasters had was convincing local residents that a potentially huge storm could impact the Tennessee Valley by the weekend.  Why was it hard to convince?  Well, through Wednesday of that week, temperatures were in the 70s and everything was budding.  But, we could all see this storm coming and knew it was going to be huge.

By Friday, the first "Blizzard Watch" was posted for our viewing area in northwest Georgia.  While I had no problem at all broadcasting this "Watch", it was the first time most local folks had heard a "Blizzard Watch" locally.  The first flakes began to fall Friday afternoon (12th) and schools began to close early.  At first, the flakes melted on impact.  We continued to stress that the worst was still to come later.  By later that Friday evening, the periods of snow increased and it no longer melted.  Temperatures dropped through the night and the wind howled.  No seriously...it howled!  Wind gusts in the 40mph to 50mph range gripped the region along with heavy snow.  Near "white out" conditions at times on that Saturday.

During the predawn hours of Saturday (13th), "thundersnow" occurred.  Simply a thunderstorm with snow instead of rain.  It just added to the dramatics already occurring.  The bright green and blue flashes illuminated the snowy landscape and the jarring claps of thunder woke a lot of people from sleep.  The snow was no longer just accumulating, it was drifting.  After sunrise, a lot of areas had drifts up to 3ft and even higher in other spots.

That Saturday was not a day to play in the snow.  It was dangerous!  Trees were falling due to the wind gusts and weight of the snow.  Wind chill levels were nearing 0.  The periods of snow would continue through the early morning hours of the 14th (Sunday).  I remember being on the air during the overnight hours of that Saturday night (13th) through the (14th).  By that time, the storm was calming down, but reading the snow totals and reporting the current temperatures was incredible.  By that time, amounts ranged from 18-23 inches and temperatures at about the same range.

By Sunday, the sunshine was back.  It was a little safer to be out taking pictures.  Some folks were getting back on the roads.  But, many had problems with their cars clearance level and the height of the snowfall accumulation.  The local road crews were doing their best to plow some of the major roads.  With snow cover, temperatures remained cold and dropped to near 10 degrees that Sunday night.

By Monday (15th), I spent more time on the air taking viewer phone calls trying to get help to those in need.  It was a reminder of how paralyzed the local region was due to massive power outages.  I remember passing these notes along to the EPB and Red Cross and other organizations.  For some, power was restored in just a couple of days.  But for others, it took 2-3 weeks.

So many people ask me, "could we see this again?".  Well, I have always said that if something has happened before, it could happen again at some point.  I still believe that! 

Superstorm '93 goes down as a Top 5 weather event that I have covered as a broadcast meteorologist.  The other 4 are (in no particular order)....The tornado outbreak of April 27, 2011.....Hurricane Katrina & Ivan during my years on the Gulf Coast.....The Good Friday tornado in East Brainerd in 1997.

David Glenn




Big Temperature Change Wednesday

03/11/14

After experiencing temperatures in the upper 70s Tuesday, a dramatic drop in temperature can be expected Wednesday and Wednesday Night.

RAIN DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT

A low pressure system from the Gulf combined with an approaching cold front will result in some rain developing locally late Tuesday night and through Wednesday morning.  Temperatures should also be quite mild with low temperatures only in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Rain should continue off and on through Wednesday morning.  That should be when the best coverage locally can be expected.  Rain coverage gradually decreases into the afternoon.  Rainfall amounts do not appear to be heavy with forecast model guidance indicating amounts from 0.50" and lower.  The higher amounts over the southern parts of the viewing area with lesser amounts north.

FALLING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

Windy and colder conditions should settle in through the afternoon.  Expect the "high" temperature for the day during the morning.  Then, through the afternoon, temperatures should tumble to near 50 by late afternoon (40s mountains).  A brisk northwest wind at 15-25mph and gusty should accompany the colder air.

With some left over moisture, it is possible that some periods of flurries or patchy areas of light snow could occur during the evening (especially the usual favored areas at the higher elevations.....but even some valley spots as well).  Windy for much of the night and even colder with temperatures tumbling into the mid 20s.  The north wind at 20mph and gusty could push wind chill values into the single digits and teens through Thursday morning.

The wind should diminish Thursday morning.  The rest of Thursday should be sunny but chilly with a high temperature only in the mid 40s.  Expect another morning of below freezing temperatures Friday with lows from 28-32.  The rest of Friday should be sunny with highs from the upper 50s to near 60.

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Warmer, Then Colder (Again!)

03/10/14

Yes, it's the wonderful month of March where you can have 3 different seasons worth of weather during a 7 day span.  And, this week is right on script!

WARM AGAIN TUESDAY

Right on the heels of a beautiful weekend and warm Monday, Tuesday should again be quite nice.  Expect a morning low in the mid 40s, then afternoon temperatures soaring into the low/mid 70s.  Skies should be sunny to begin the day followed by increasing clouds through the afternoon.  Even with the late day clouds, it should remain dry through the day.

RAINY & COOL WEDNESDAY

An area of low pressure and trailing cold front will slowly approach and pass through the Tennessee Valley between late Tuesday night and Wednesday.  This should bring another chance for rain and cooler temperatures.  Rainfall amounts do not appear to be heavy and the chance of any severe weather remains very low.  Model forecast data continues to indicate rainfall amounts locally around 0.25" or less.  We will continue to keep an eye on that trend through Wednesday.

Temperatures Wednesday should only reach the 50s to lower 60s with the clouds and rain.

WINDY AND COLDER THURSDAY

Windy and much colder conditions can be expected Thursday.  Some "wrap around" moisture on the back side of the exiting low pressure system could produce some flurries or light snow showers along the usual favored spots along the Cumberland Plateau and Blue Ridge Mtns.  No problems are expected from this.  But, it does represent the colder pattern ahead for most of the day Thursday.

A brisk northwest wind should hold high temperatures mostly in the 40s, though a few spots could reach near 50.  Morning temperatures Thursday should be just below freezing ranging from the upper 20s to the lower 30s.  A little colder Thursday night and early Friday as lows dip into the mid/upper 20s.

WARMING UP FRIDAY

After another cold morning Friday in the 20s, expect a gradual warming trend through the day.  A sunny to partly sunny sky should allow temperatures to warm from the upper 50s to near 60 by the afternoon.

Seasonal temperatures can be expected for the weekend, but with more cloud cover.  A slight chance for rain and low 60s Saturday.  Then a slightly better chance for rain Sunday and only the upper 50s to near 60.  Longer range models point to a possibly very wet St Patrick's Day Monday with a good chance for rain and highs only in the 50s.  Of course, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




The Weekend Outlook & Longer Range Into Next Week

03/07/14

The weekend should get off to a nice start with some sun and warmer temperatures Saturday.  But, some clouds and even a little light rain possible Sunday.

A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND

A seasonably cool morning in the upper 30s Saturday.  Then, expect sunshine through early afternoon followed by a gradual increase in clouds through late afternoon.  Expect an afternoon high from 65 to 70!  An increasing breeze from the southwest at 10-15mph.

CLOUDS & SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY

A weak system should move through the Southeast and Tennessee Valley Saturday night through Sunday morning.  This should keep skies cloudy and even produce some areas of light rain from late night and into Sunday morning.  Any rainfall amounts look light.  Temperatures by Sunday morning should be in the mid/upper 40s.  With cloud cover remaining through Sunday afternoon, expect temperatures to stay in the low/mid 60s.

EVEN WARMER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

A warmer pattern can be expected Monday and Tuesday.  A mix of sun and clouds both days though more cloud cover late Tuesday.  Afternoon highs should average around 70 both afternoons (60s mountains).

MIDWEEK RAIN AND POSSIBLE STORMS

A storm system should move out of the Plains states and produce a good chance for rain locally from late Tuesday night through Wednesday.  Some thunderstorms are possible though it is too early to speculate if any could be severe.  Rainfall amounts vary between the various long range forecast models.  The European model with a lighter amount being projected (around 0.30") compared to the wetter GFS model (around 0.70").  The rain should taper off through Wednesday night and early Thursday.

COLDER (AGAIN) THURSDAY

The teasing weather patterns of March continue with another blast of cold air moving in behind Wednesday's storm system.  Thursday looks windy and colder with afternoon temperatures staying in the low 40s.  With some "wrap around" moisture behind the exiting storm system, there could be some flurries or even some light snow showers at higher elevations Thursday morning as the cold air arrives.  Temperatures by Thursday night dipping into the upper 20s to near 30.  So, another freeze coming up!

Temperatures should rebound quickly next Friday with some sun and afternoon temperatures back in the 50s.

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Colder and Wetter Thursday & Thursday Night

03/05/14

A Gulf system that could spread rain back across the viewing area will favor southern and eastern sections with better rain chances Thursday afternoon and night.  Temperatures should be much cooler Thursday with highs only in the low 50s valley and 40s local mountains. The higher peaks of the Blue Ridge Mtns across northeast GA and western NC could have some periods of snow late day Thursday and into Thursday night.  We'll keep an eye on that chance for the higher terrain of our eastern viewing area mountain tops.   Cold and wet through Thursday night for the remainder of the viewing area with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.  The slow movement of the system to the east could allow for the clouds and rain to linger through Friday morning and even the early afternoon.  Eventually clearing during the afternoon with highs in the 50s.

Saturday looks great with sunshine returning and afternoon temperatures in the mid 60s.  Clouds return Sunday, but only a small chance for light rain & low 60s.  Warmer and drier Monday and Tuesday with highs from 65 to 70.  We will have to watch Wednesday and the mid week portion of next week for a possible strong storms system to move out of the central and southern Plains States that could bring a return chance for rain and even some strong thunderstorms.  Much colder air could follow for late next week.  Typical March up and down pattern!

David Glenn




"Meteorological Winter" Coming To A Close

02/27/14

Spring does not officially begin until 12:57pm on March 20th.  But, in the meteorological world, the "statistical" time frame for winter known as Meteorological Winter runs from December 1st to February 28th.  So, let's take a statistical look at what it has been like in Chattanooga the past 3 months.

WINTER 2014....IT WAS COLD!

That is the quick answer most of us will remember about the Winter when asked about it.  Even though December had above normal temperatures, the arrival of 2014 also meant several visits by arctic air.  Here is the breakdown of the temperatures by month (based on Lovell Field-Chattanooga observations).

December 2013:  Average Temperature: 44.9 degrees (2.3 degrees ABOVE normal)

January 2014:  Average Temperature: 33.7 degrees (6.8 degrees BELOW normal)

February 2014: Average Temperature (estimated at 43.8 degrees)....(0.4 degrees BELOW normal)

An "average" or normal Winter in Chattanooga would have an average temperature of 42.4 degrees for the three month average.  The three month average for Winter 2013-2014 was 40.8 degrees which would be 1.6 degrees below average.

The big story was the return of arctic air bringing some of the coldest air in years to the Tennessee Valley.  3 separate rounds alone during January.  There were five mornings with temperatures in the single digits.  The coldest was 5 degrees on both January 7th and 30th.  There were some warm days sprinkled in with the warmest Winter day on December 5th with 75 degrees.  There were also some afternoons in the 70s during late February.

ABOVE NORMAL SNOWFALL

That is another big story about the Winter of 2013-2014!  Snowfall really picked up from late January through mid February with a seasonal total through the end of February at 8.4 inches.  1.2 inches on January 28th and 7.2 inches of heavy snow on February 12-13.  The "normal" average seasonal total is 4.8 inches.

Three of the past five winters have had ABOVE average snowfall.  The five year total is over 30 inches!

NORMAL RAINFALL

Rainfall averaged out just slightly above normal.  That's a good thing!  It's never a good sign to start the year with a rainfall deficit.  December was the wettest month of the season with 3.08" ABOVE normal for the month!  January was 2.51" BELOW normal as the dry & bitter cold arctic air dominated for the month.  February was right about normal for rainfall.  The seasonal total was 15.57" which was about an inch ABOVE normal for the season.

WINTER FORECAST WORKED OUT WELL

Seasonal forecasts are never easy, but I was very pleased with how we framed up what we expected for the Winter of 2013-2014.  The preseason pattern suggested arctic air at times and I am glad that I put that in our seasonal outlook as the arctic air masses kept moving in during January.  The overall forecast was for below normal temperatures and above normal snow chances.  And, just through the end of February and "Meteorological Winter", that has been a very good call!  And, we still have the month of March to deal with!

David Glenn




Colder,Then Warmer, Then Colder.....March Must Be Coming Up!

02/26/14

This colder than normal air mass should linger through early Friday.  Slightly milder air moves in Friday along with some clouds.  Cloudy Friday night and there could be some light rain in spots overnight and even a brief "mix" in spots at higher elevations.  Any light precipitation tapers off Saturday morning with the rest of the day drier and milder with highs reaching the mid 50s.

Warmer on Sunday with a mix of clouds and sun.  Afternoon temperatures should warm nicely into the mid and even upper 60s.

A wet start to the upcoming work week is possible as a storm system rolls in locally beginning late Sunday night.  The best rain coverage should be on Monday and into Monday night.  Temperatures just a little cooler Monday with 50s for highs.  Most of the rain should taper off by Tuesday morning followed by some much colder air.  Long range model data differs a bit on just how cold the air mass could be moving in next week.  But, it is possible that afternoon highs could remain in the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday along with morning lows possibly near 20 by Wednesday morning.

Some rain could return into the late stage of next week as an active pattern continues across the Southeast.  Forecast model data differs a bit on timing of these systems and temperatures.  So, keep checking our forecasts and blog for changes ahead in the long range forecast.

The wildest month of the calendar year is upon us......March!  So, there could be quite a changeable pattern over the next few weeks!

David Glenn




An Early Mix Wednesday, Then Windy & Colder

02/25/14

Winter conditions return for Wednesday as much colder air rushes back in.  Some light precipitation early Wednesday could be in the form of a wintry mix.

Arctic air moves southward through early Wednesday morning.  The wind should really pick up from the north-northwest and be quite gusty even before sunrise.  This should quickly drop temperatures to the upper 20s away from the city and near 32 in the city.  The brisk northwest wind should make it feel even colder with a Wind Chill in the 10s and 20s early.

A light wintry mix is also possible from the predawn hours to just after sunrise.  Moisture amounts remain light, but nevertheless something we'll keep an eye on.  A mix of light rain, sleet and even light snow at times as temperatures gradually get colder.  Any accumulation should be very light because of the warm ground and favoring higher elevations.  Also be aware of some slick spots on bridges & overpasses at higher elevations during the morning.  Any mix should move out quickly Wednesday morning.  As always, you can depend on us to track this.  Be sure to check in on our Good Morning Chattanooga newscast from 4:30am-7:00am for a radar update.

The rest of the day Wednesday should be windy and much colder than it has been.  Afternoon temperatures should only reach the low 40s valley and mid/upper 30s mountains.  The brisk north wind should make it feel like the 30s throughout the day.

Thursday morning should be much colder as temperatures drop to near 20.  This means areas north and mountains could drop into the 10s.  Sunny Thursday with mid/upper 40s through the afternoon.




A Winter Reality Check!

02/24/14

After an unseasonably warm weekend, a Winter reality check settles in by midweek!

CLOUDS & COOLER TUESDAY

You probably won't notice a huge change Tuesday, but temperatures should be a little cooler than Monday only topping out in the low/mid 50s.  Also expect increased cloud cover and some light rain or drizzle at times.

COLDER WEDNESDAY & WATCHING A WINTRY MIX

Wednesday should signify the return of wintry conditions to the Tennessee Valley.  A low pressure system should move along the Gulf Coast Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.  This could bring some periods of light rain across the Southeast and into the Tennessee Valley through Wednesday morning.  As colder air moves in behind the system Wednesday morning, there could be a period of some light snow or light wintry mix.  Moisture amounts look light for this event, so any accumulation should also be light and mainly at higher elevations.  But, as always, we will keep an eye on this system.

Drier conditions should rapidly move in for Wednesday afternoon.  However, it should be windy and quite cold with afternoon temperatures only in the upper 30s to near 40.  The wind from the north at 10-20mph should create a brisk Wind Chill making it feel even colder.

COLDEST MORNING ON THURSDAY

The coldest morning of this round of cold air should be Thursday.  Expect a clear sky and temperatures in the city around 20, but away from the city mid/upper 10s will be possible.  The rest of the day should be sunny, but afternoon highs only in the mid 40s.  Overnight temperatures Thursday night should dip back into the mid 20s.

A WET START TO THE WEEKEND

Clouds should gradually increase in coverage on Friday with highs back near 50.  Some rain could move back in late Friday night and into the first half of Saturday.  We will have to keep an eye on temperatures as there could be some spots where the rain could be come a wintry mix at times with temperatures dipping into the mid 30s Saturday morning.  Right now, it looks like a brief encounter with wintry weather as temperatures should rise to near 50 by Saturday afternoon.

This "active" southern stream pattern should continue into the following week with another possible rain chance by the next Monday.  And, with cold air lurking north, we will have to keep an eye on each system rolling through our viewing area.  Some wintry precipitation could occur just to our north over the Ohio Valley.  But, we will need to watch each system.

The pattern for the first 10 days of March continues to look colder than average.  As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




A Mild Weekend Followed By Colder Air Returning Next Week

02/21/14

This last weekend of February should be nice with warmer than normal temperatures each afternoon.  As noted above, there should be more cloud cover moving in for Sunday.  Monday should again have afternoon temperatures back in the 60s with a mix of sun and clouds.  But, winter's chill starts coming back starting Tuesday.


Cloudy with a little light rain Tuesday and cooler with highs only in the 50s.  A slightly stronger system moves through late Tuesday night and into Wednesday.  This could bring some rain, which could end as a wintry mix & snow showers during the first half of Wednesday.  We'll have to keep an eye on that system to see if any accumulation is possible.  Highs on Wednesday might stay in the upper 30s to near 40.  Dry and colder than normal to end the week with highs in the 40s Thursday and Friday with lows in the 20s.  Again, winter is not over yet!


David Glenn




Severe Storms Possible Thursday Night

02/19/14

We continue to monitor the possibility of strong to severe storms across the Tennessee Valley for Thursday Night.

UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THURSDAY

The high temperatures Wednesday was 73 which was 17 degrees above the average high of 56 degrees.  It was not a record high as it was 77 on this date in 1939.  Temperatures should again reach the low 70s Thursday.  The record high in Chattanooga for Thursday is 78 degrees which occurred in 1986.  More seasonal temperatures should return Friday with high temperatures cooling back to the upper 50s.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT

As mentioned above, Thursday should again be quite warm with highs in the 70s.  That will be accompanied by a strengthening southwesterly wind at 15-25mph and gusty.  Shower and storm chances should remain low during the day with more cloud cover building in.

As a cold front draws closer Thursday evening, the chance for severe storms increases from late evening (after 10pm) and through the hours after midnight.  The severe storms could arrive in the form of a squall line, or a fast moving line of strong thunderstorms.  The main severe threat should be the risk of damaging straight line wind and even some hail.  Heavy downpours are also possible.  There is also the risk of isolated tornadoes within this line of storms. 

The storms should end locally prior to sunrise Friday.  The rest of Friday should be drier and more seasonal with morning temperatures in the 40s and afternoon highs in the upper 50s.

STAY AWARE AND BE PREPARED

This is the first Spring like threat of severe storms this season.  Now is the time to go over your storm preparedness plans with your family.  Be sure that you can stay up to date on the latest local weather information.  Charge your cellphone.....Be sure your NOAA Weather Alert Radio has fresh batteries and that it is programmed correctly.  Click the link below for the list of NOAA S.A.M.E. county codes for your weather alert radio.

NOAA S.A.M.E. County Code Link

Download the FREE StormTrack 9 App!  It has an interactive radar feature allowing you to zoom in to your neighborhood along with storm tracking.  The App will also send weather alerts to your mobile device.  Just search "WTVC WX" in your app store.

NICE START TO THE WEEKEND

The dry weather for Friday should continue Saturday with a mix of sun and clouds.  Afternoon temperatures should rise back into the 60s.  A weak system passing by on Sunday should bring more clouds and slightly cooler afternoon temperatures with 50s.  A few showers possible to our south.

GRADUALLY COLDER NEXT WEEK

Each day next week should exhibit cooler afternoon highs each day.  There is a lot of long range forecast model inconsistency on precipitation chances.  Right now, I will keep a low end chance in the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Highs by Wednesday could only be in the mid 40s with morning lows dropping back to the 20s & 30s.

The overall upper pattern continues to look even colder heading into the weekend of March 1st.  So, Winter is far from over and still a lot to watch through early March with this colder pattern possibly evolving.  As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Spring Warmth Could Mean Some Spring-Like Storms

02/18/14

Temperatures should remain above normal through Thursday.  But, an approaching cold front could bring some strong to severe storms across the Tennessee Valley Thursday night.

THE LAST TIME CHATTANOOGA WAS 70 DEGREES OR HIGHER WAS.........

That would be December 22, 2013.  Remember those unseasonably warm days just before Christmas?  Well, since then we have endured a very cold Winter since then.  Temperatures should again reach the 60s Wednesday afternoon.  On Thursday, many spots locally could see temperatures rise into the lower 70s.

WATCHING THE RADAR

Another round of showers can be expected through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as another weak front rolls through.  Heavy rain or strong storms not expected with this rain chance.  After a wet start to Wednesday, it does appear that it should be drier by Afternoon and even some breaks in the clouds with afternoon temperatures back in the 60s.

By Thursday, a stronger cold front approaches.  This should increase the southerly flow and help boost temperatures into the low 70s by afternoon.  An increasing southwest wind as well through the afternoon and evening.  A few showers/t-showers are possible during the day Thursday, but the best chance should be Thursday night.

The strong cold front should begin its' approach to the Tennessee Valley Thursday night.  This could drag a line of strong thunderstorms across the viewing area later Thursday evening and through the overnight hours.  A squall line like this means that the embedded storms could produce damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours.  This Spring like system will also have to be watched for any tornado development.

The front should move through early Friday ending the threat of rain and storms.  The rest of Friday should be drier into the afternoon and slightly cooler with highs in the 50s.

A DRY & SEASONAL WEEKEND

The upcoming weekend is looking nice for the last weekend of February.  Breezy with a mix of sun and clouds Saturday with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to near 60.  Slightly cooler air moves in Sunday, but still dry with low/mid 50s by afternoon after a morning low in the 30s.

COLDER AIR RETURNS NEXT WEEK

As mentioned in my earlier post.  A colder pattern should return to the Southeast and Tennessee Valley by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.  This should drop afternoon temperatures back to the 40s as early as Tuesday and especially Wednesday.  Morning lows could also dip into the 20s by Wednesday morning.  A few models try to bring some precipitation back to the viewing area Tuesday afternoon and night.  This could mean some rain showers ending as snow showers as the colder air moves in.

Still too early to speculate any more than that about any systems next week.  As always, you can depend on us for updates on Thursday night's severe weather chances and about the return of some cold air next week!

David Glenn




A Preview Of Spring

02/17/14

A much warmer pattern should stick around for most of the work week.  But, along with the warm temperatures will come some occasional showers.  There is also the chance of some strong to severe storms late Thursday night and into Friday morning.

AFTERNOONS IN THE 60S

A weak front rolls through the Tennessee Valley Monday night through Tuesday morning.  Most shower activity should end after midnight from west to east.  By Tuesday, some morning cloud cover should give way to some sunshine for a large part of the day.  Afternoon temperatures should average in the low 60s, but some areas into the mid 60s (upper 50s higher elevations).

Wednesday should again be warm in the mid 60s.  But, there should be more cloud cover and even some showers at times.  It doesn't appear to be heavy nor the all day variety of rain.  Model data favors the early morning hours through midday Wednesday with some occasional showers moving through.

Thursday should also be very warm with highs in the upper 60s and even near 70 in spots.  This warmup will be in advance for a stronger cold front that should move through Friday morning.

STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT

The cold front mentioned above could produce some strong to severe storms locally late Thursday night through Friday morning.  It is that time of year now when the Spring severe storm season begins.  Some storms could produce damaging wind gusts & heavy rainfall.  It's still early to determine a tornado threat.  But, we will continue to keep you updated on this pattern!

DRIER & SLIGHTLY COOLER INTO THE WEEKEND

Slightly cooler air, but seasonal for this time of year moves in for the weekend.  This should drop afternoon highs to the 50s with morning lows in the 30s.  Rain chances look small right now, but more cloud cover could linger both days.

COLDER INTO NEXT WEEK

After the Spring preview this week, most longer range model data favors a return to colder than average temperatures by early to mid next week.  This could mean afternoon highs dropping back to the 40s and morning lows in the 20s.  We will also have to keep an eye on any storm systems moving in from west with the colder air again establishing itself over the Southeast.  A few models suggesting that some wintry precipitation could occur into midweek.  But, it's still way too early to get specific on that chance.

In other words, Winter is not over yet!  And, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




The Weekend Outlook: A Cold Start, Then Warmer

02/14/14

After a very wintry week here in the Tennessee Valley, the weekend will start of breezy and cold.  But, by Sunday, milder air returns followed by a huge warm up next week.

QUITE CHILLY SATURDAY

Windy and colder conditions move in behind a strong clipper system that rolls through Friday night.  Some snow showers are possible as the cold air rushes in.  Mainly light accumulation at higher elevations.  Quite windy through the predawn hours as temperatures plummet into the upper 20s along with a brisk northwest wind at 15-25mph.

Still breezy after sunrise Saturday with any remaining flurries or light snow showers ending.  Sunshine returning late morning and into the afternoon along with a lighter breeze.  Afternoon temperatures should only reach the upper 30s (mid 30s mountains)

Saturday night should be cold again with upper 20s.  Another weak disturbance moves through which should bring back some cloud cover through the night and even a sprinkle or flurry.

MILDER SUNDAY

Sunday should be much milder through the afternoon after a chilly start that morning.  Expect a mix of clouds and sun early followed by more sun into the afternoon.  High temperatures should reach the low 50s through the afternoon.

HUGE WARM UP NEXT WEEK

Typically we get some days like this in February from year to year.  It serves as a Spring preview.  Afternoon highs should reach the upper 50s Monday and into the 60s each afternoon through Friday.  It's possible that a few local spots might even reach near 70 by Thursday.  Now, along with the warm up will be some Gulf moisture streaming in that could lead to some shower chances each day as early as Monday afternoon.  While no day looks like a washout there could be shower chances each day.  Enjoy the warm up while it's here. Long range projections show some colder air possibly returning by late month and early March.

David Glenn




Snowfall Total Ranking & Weekend Discussion

02/13/14

THE OFFICIAL CHATTANOOGA SNOWFALL TOTAL WAS......

7.2" for the two day total (Wednesday through Thursday morning) at Lovell Field.  The snow Wednesday morning was 1.7", then the evening & overnight total was 5.5" which gives the full storm total of 7.2".  Other local spots had a 7"-9" average with a few spots around 10".

So, where does this rank on the list of Chattanooga snowfalls?  Well, pretty far down the list.  The all time 2 day total is the 1993 blizzard with 20".  Just three years ago on January 10-11, 2011 the total was 8.5".  That 2011 storm is #24 on the list.  This past snowfall total of 7.2" is #34 on the list.

The seasonal snowfall total at Lovell Field is now 8.4" which already doubles the normal seasonal total of 3.9".  Of course, I like that number because it fits what we discussed in our winter forecast of a colder, snowier winter.  And, winter is not over yet!

A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO WATCH FRIDAY

We will continue to keep an eye on that clipper system that rolls in Friday night.  It will all depend upon how much moisture remains as the cold air arrives.  So, there could be a period of light snow or a mix during the overnight hours.  Again, some light accumulation possible across the region with higher elevations having the best chance.  As always, you can depend on us to keep you updated!

COLD SATURDAY, THEN A NICE THAW!

After a sunny and cold Saturday, a big February thaw begins Sunday and into next week.  Highs in the 50s Sunday and even climbing to near 60 by early next week.  The upcoming week will exhibit warmer than average temperatures for a change along with some rain chances.  At this time, not all day chances, but several systems moving through will make you want to keep an umbrella close by at times.

David Glenn




More Overnight Snow Through Thursday Morning

02/12/14

Some breaks in the snow have shown up over north Georgia, but it will probably be temporary.

An "upper level" low is rotating out of east central Alabama.  This low should move northeast into north Georgia and bring some moderate to at times heavy snow back across the region.  This could produce a few more inches of snow on top of the 3"-6" totals that have already fallen.  The upper low should race northeast as a strong surface low moves across the eastern Gulf and the southeast Atlantic coast.  As the low moves away, the bands of moderate snow should taper off through Thursday morning.

Some lightning/thunder is also possible as the upper low swings through the region.  This "thundersnow" is very possible in this type of pattern.

Roads remain snow and slush covered.  Travel will remain hazardous through Thursday morning.  Some improvements during the afternoon with temperatures nearing 40.

You can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Wintry Wednesday Evening

02/12/14

As expected, the transition from rain back to a mix to snow has occurred over many areas locally.  These periods of snow and occasional mix should continue through most of the evening before tapering during the early morning hours of Thursday.

Accumulating snowfall could really start to add up.  Up to 3" in the city with locally higher amounts possible.  A 3"-5" range south and east, but higher amounts into the Blue Ridge Mountains.  1"-3" northwest.  These amounts could change as we watch the snowfall trends through the evening. 

David Glenn




Wednesday Afternoon Wintry Weather Update

02/12/14

After a large swath of accumulating snow this morning, a large portion of the precipitation has switched back to a wintry mix of rain and sleet in a lot of areas.  But, at higher elevations it is still mainly snow.

The reason for this "mixing"  is due to a shallow layer of warm air near the surface.  The snowflakes and sleet that fall through that layer melt into raindrops before reaching the ground.  Higher elevations locally are just above that warm layer allowing the snow and sleet to continue.

Through late afternoon and into the evening, that shallow warm layer is still expected to erode as cold air takes back over.  This means that when the cooling occurs we see a slow transition back to snow across the viewing area.  So, more accumulating snowfall remains in the forecast locally for late this afternoon and into tonight.

You can depend on us for updates!  (David)




Tracking Wednesday's Wintry Weather

02/12/14

The storm system that will affect a large part of the Southeast is just now developing across the western Gulf of Mexico.  Latest model data still indicates the potential of snowfall accumulation across the viewing area through Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Temperature profiles aloft and at the surface indicate that some mixing could occur with sleet and snow initially.  There could be alternating periods of mixing through the day Wednesday as temperatures fluctuate (snow...to a mix even with some rain...back to snow).   Still other model data indicates the possibility of heavier bands of snow at times, especially into Wednesday afternoon and night.

So, it is one of those system that should slowly evolve through the day and into the night.  Periods of mixing could affect overall accumulation amounts.

A lot to watch and track throughout the day Wednesday and continuing into Wednesday night.

Please check back here on the blog for updates!

David




Winter Weather Update

02/11/14

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

Weather Discussion:   A break in the action for late Tuesday as we await the next round of wintry weather.  A low pressure system from the Gulf should send quite a bit of moisture toward the north through late tonight and early Wednesday morning.  The precipitation could begin as a mix initially, then a gradual change to all snow through Wednesday.  The highest snowfall amounts over the southern and eastern parts of the viewing area as mentioned above, with the lighter amounts to the northwest.

Farther south into Georgia and into the Carolinas a crippling snow and ice storm (Atlanta, Augusta, Columbia, Charlotte).  So, travel locally will be impacted and also across the region.

The snow should slowly taper off through late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.  Morning temperatures should be in the upper 20s to near 30 Thursday with travel issues could still be a problem.  Temperatures by Thursday afternoon should reach the upper 30s to lower 40s.

David Glenn




Weather Thoughts From Bill Race On Tuesday Morning

02/11/14

Snow is likely for today, with an inch or two especially in North Georgia and Northeast Alabama.  The snow will diminish today and then we will see more snow late tonight and Wednesday.  Snow Accumulations on Wednesday from 2-4 inches.  Some areas could see a little more on Wednesday especially in higher elevations. 

I expect to see snow moving out on Wednesday night and dry conditions will be with us into the weekend.  Bill Race.




Wintry Weather Discussion

02/10/14

The first of a three step wintry scenario occurred today with a weak disturbance moving by that caused some snow showers earlier.  The second system later tonight and Tuesday with some wintry precip, especially over the southern part of the viewing area.  And then, a third system which could bring a more significant chance of wintry precip to our viewing area. A lot can still change through Wednesday which could determine how much snow could occur locally. This all hinges on the track and speed of a low pressure system along the Gulf coast that is projected to move northeast Tuesday night through Wednesday night.  Forecast guidance models show everything from a lot of snow locally to the other end of the spectrum with less snow locally with a lot of it staying south and east.  Which model is correct?  That is the big question as the movement of that Gulf low pressure system will ultimately determine that.  We use forecast models as a reference guide as no model will be exactly right at face value.  Instead, it's a simulation of what could happen based on different movements of a storm system.  So, we have to look at Tuesday night through Wednesday's forecast with a degree of caution and understand that a lot can still change.


A cold start to Tuesday morning with temperatures in the 20s.  Remaining cloudy and cold through the day with temperatures staying in the 30s.  From late tonight and into Tuesday.  A light mixing of snow/sleet/rain moves through, especially over the southern part of the viewing area.  Local accumulation amounts generally light in those areas at an inch or less.  Even with this band of wintry precipitation, the northern extent could still change and we will keep you updated as we always do!


That more significant chance of wintry weather could occur Tuesday night and Wednesday as the low pressure system emerges out of the Gulf.  Again, the track and speed of that system will determine our local snow amounts.   Model data like the European and Canadian show a slower more inland system that could mean some significant snow amounts locally and even heavy in spots.  While the NAM (North American Model) is faster and out to sea with the system which keeps better snow chances south and lighter locally.  The GFS Model falls right in between.  That gives you an idea of the challenges ahead in forecasting this system.


For now, we continue to keep the chance of some accumulating snowfall locally in the forecast for Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Earlier StormTrack 9 projections had a 2"-4"/1"-3" chance locally around the immediate metro and we'll keep that as is for now with most of that late Tuesday night and Wednesday.  The higher end of that scale south and less to the north.  Over our southern viewing area in GA and AL that 2"-4" possibility remains and even higher in spots depending on the path of that "Low".  The Blue Ridge Mtns could see even more snow depending upon that track.  4"-6"+ is a possibility across the higher terrain. 


Could this all change?  Of course it could.  We urge you to stay tuned as we watch the development and track of that area of low pressure.  In the end, the weather is gonna do what it wants to do.  But, we will be there to help navigate you through the changes.  As always you can depend on us!


David Glenn




Weather Thoughts From Bill Race

02/10/14

Here are some thoughts and conclusions about our winter weather. Some light snow and rain mixed for today will likely not accumulate much today or this evening. Snow and some rain mixed will become more likely even late tonight and Tuesday. But still only an inch or less by late Tuesday afternoon. The best chance for accumulations will be Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some mix as well. Total storm accumulations of 2-4 inches possible by Wednesday evening. The StormTrack 9 team will update often to let you know of any change in our thinking of what to expect. Tracking 24/7. Bill Race




Updated Winter Storm Forecast (Sunday PM)

unset

The upcoming winter storm expected to move through later on Monday is still a very tricky system to forecast, but the models are coming into better agreement. A few light snow showers could develop by Monday afternoon but should pass very quickly with little to no accumulation. Don't be fooled by this initial round if it moves through your area.

The bulk of the moisture with the first round is set to move through late Monday evening and throughout Tuesday. Temperatures will hover just below freezing throughout Monday evening and Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon, temperatures should hover just above freezing. However, the precipitation could remain a wintry mix throughout most of the day. By Tuesday evening the first round of precipitation ends and we get a brief break. From this first round of precipitation, most of the viewing area should see at least an inch of snow. The farther south you are, the more snow you are likely to see because that is where the heaviest precipitation will be.

By Wednesday mid-morning the second batch of precipitation will arrive. This round could contain rain, sleet, snow and/or freezing rain. We need to see how the first round of precipitation moves through before we can really get a firm grasp on exactly what type of moisture will move through Wednesday into Thursday.

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Updated Winter Storm Forecast (Sunday PM)


Local NWS Advisories & Statements

02/09/14

Here are links to the current NWS advisories and statements issued for our local viewing area as of Noon ET Sunday. (Click each link below)
Statement & Hazardous Weather Outlook from NWS Morristown, TN
Winter Storm Watch from NWS Atlanta/Peachtree City
Winter Storm Watch from NWS Huntsville
Special Weather Statement from NWS Nashville, TN




Model Data Continues To Look Wintry Early Next Week

02/08/14

The Saturday forecast model guidance is starting to become a little more consistent with the possibility of some snowfall across the viewing area during the period from late Monday through early Wednesday.   We will continue to keep an eye on this developing system as the exact track will determine how much snow is possible.  Model data can still change and we will be closely monitoring.  You can depend on us for updates.




A Busy Weather Pattern Continues

02/08/14

The active southerly flow and colder air to our north are combining to keep our weather pattern busy for the next few days.

SATURDAY STARTS COLD...ENDS MILD

The disturbance moving through Saturday morning creating some light snow across parts of the Tennessee Valley.  We'll be continuing to monitor that!  As I have mentioned in earlier posts, every wave and disturbance moving through locally along this active southerly flow has to be closely monitored and this one has been no different.  A quick change occurs by afternoon as drier and milder conditions settle in.  Morning temps in the 30s should steadily rise to the 40s by early afternoon and even near 50 late day.

RELATIVELY QUIET SUNDAY

More clouds than sun on Sunday, but temperatures should be just a little bit above seasonal averages which has been a rarity lately.  Morning temperatures near 32, but into the low 50s through the afternoon.  Enjoy this quiet period as the active pattern cranks back up later Monday.

BUSY PATTERN EARLY WEEK

The "model mayhem" continues for Monday through Thursday.  There has been only a slow trend toward consistency during the late night Friday night and early Saturday morning model runs.  Each of the global models (GFS, CMC, ECMWF) all having slightly different scenarios for the placement and strength of a potential low pressure system along the Gulf Coast.  Based on the model runs of late Friday night, the GFS and ECMWF both introduce a slight chance for precipitation locally on Monday, but generally light.  Depending upon temperature it could even be mixed in spots.  The ECMWF is the "snowiest" of the model group for our local area bringing a potential for accumulating snowfall on Tuesday as the low pressure lifts northeast.  The ECMWF paints the greater swath of snow over the Northeast GA mountains and into the Carolinas with generally lighter amounts in our immediate metro area (1"-2").  Likewise, the GFS has a chance of accumulating snowfall locally Tuesday, but lighter (1/2"-1" average).  Then a larger rain event on Thursday compared to the ECMWF.  The Canadian model (CMC-GEM) gives a possible light accumulation locally Monday into Tuesday with the greater chance over the Carolinas.  Again, these are just the possible scenarios from the computer model guidance.

The guidance is basically telling us that we need to watch the track and development of that low pressure system along the Gulf.  With the pattern that we are in, such a "low" could mean some periods of wintry weather locally and that is what the model guidance is showing.  But, all of the models differ quite a bit on temperatures.  So, our local viewing area could be in a transition zone where different parts of the viewing area could experience different precipitation "types".  So, a lot to watch through the weekend with forecast model guidance.

One thing that has been consistent is the suggestion by the models that the Carolinas could have some significant snowfall.  But, again, it all depends on the track of the system.

As always, in a pattern like this....it's one day and one system at a time!  You can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Dry Friday & A Look Ahead To The Weekend

02/06/14

A break in the active pattern for Friday, but it's brief!  An active pattern continues into next week.

THURSDAY EVENING LIGHT SNOW

If you read my earlier posts, you now see why we kept the chances there for a period of some light snow in the forecast through the evening hours.  Even though model data showed less, the overall pattern suggested otherwise.  And, that is again why that chance remained in our forecast.  Overall a fast moving system and any resulting accumulation was light, but it shows you why each and every disturbance moving through this active southerly flow has to be closely watched while cold air is in place locally!

DRY & CHILLY FRIDAY

There could be some breaks in the clouds from time to time, but the active southerly flow aloft will keep clouds streaming in from the west. Temperatures should remain just below seasonal averages only reaching the mid 40s through the afternoon.  A little sun could boost that to the upper 40s in spots.

EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD OF MIXING

The next system to move in could bring another period of some light mixed precipitation early Saturday morning.  Model projections indicate during the predawn hours to after sunrise.  Again, amounts look light, but as always we will keep an eye on this system.  Temperatures should be near 32 Saturday morning, but then quickly warm to the upper 40s and even near 50 by afternoon.   The back edge or wrap around of this system should slowly move through Saturday night and into Sunday.  Temperatures suggest some light rain possible at times, but as colder air filters in Sunday afternoon, some flakes possible at higher elevations.  Afternoon temps should be in the 40s and drop off more by late afternoon and into the evening.  Again, we'll be closely watching this pattern through the weekend.

TRICKY PATTERN NEXT WEEK

Again, the active southerly flow combined with cold air parked just to our north could cause some forecasting headaches next week.  Model guidance indicates a more vigorous system moving in late Monday night through late Wednesday (Euro moves it in earlier Monday afternoon).  The setup is one that typically points to the possibility of wintry precipitation locally.  However, the exact path the system will take remains in question.  With elevation differences locally along with temperature changes north to south across the viewing area, this could mean different types of precip possible.  Just a few degrees at the surface and aloft could mean the difference between a cold rain and a wintry mix of freezing rain/sleet/snow.  So, for now, all we can do is watch how the pattern evolves.  Model guidance will continue to change a bit with each run.  Consistency is the key!  As always we will keep you updated!

David Glenn




Cloudy & Chilly While Watching This Active Pattern

02/05/14

The chilly air has returned and should stick around through Friday.  At the same time, the active southerly flow continues and keeps us busy watching each wave that moves by.

QUITE CHILLY THURSDAY

Cloudy, breezy and chilly pretty much sums it up for Thursday.  Afternoon highs should barely go above 40 into the low 40s.  Higher elevations and north should stay in the 30s.  As for any precipitation, we have to continue to keep an eye on disturbances moving along the Gulf Coast in that active southerly flow.  One such disturbance should slide along the coast and through central/southern Georgia Thursday afternoon and evening.  While a weak system, we'll be watching for any light precipitation south to see of it spreads any farther north.  For now, I am keeping a slight chance for light rain/snow in the forecast for the southern part of the viewing area through afternoon and evening.  If the disturbance stays far enough south, then mainly just a cloudy sky for most.  So, we'll keep an eye on that system.

CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COLD FRIDAY

Friday should again be mostly cloudy with a few cloud breaks here and there.  Mostly dry with afternoon temperatures in the mid 40s.

WEEKEND SYSTEM

This is the system that we have been closely watching for the past few days. More consistency has been seen among the various forecast guidance models.  Most show a weaker, faster moving system Saturday and into Sunday.  And, if that comes to pass, moisture amounts remain very low locally as well.  The time frame to watch appears to be during the predawn hours of Saturday and through the midday when some light rain/snow could move through.  Temperatures should be near 32 Saturday morning, then reach the mid/upper 40s by afternoon which should limit big issues.  But, we'll keep an eye on that trend for Saturday morning with that chance for a period of light mixing.

The fast movement and lack of strengthening close to us should again limit precipitation chances Saturday night and Sunday should that pattern hold.  Again, we are seeing better model consistency, but as always will keep watching this system closely as it moves through the region.  Sunday looks breezy with low 40s during the afternoon.

DRY INTO MONDAY

Some cloud breaks and chilly Monday with a high in the mid 40s after a morning low in the mid/upper 20s.

KEEP AN EYE ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

Most of the longer range models continue this active pattern through next week.  Another storm system could move in locally from the southern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday.  This could bring widespread precipitation back to the Tennessee Valley.  As for what "type" of precipitation remains a question.  The GFS is colder, while the European model is warmer.  So, there could be a wintry mix/rain possibility early next week.  We'll know more specifics in the days ahead.  And, as always, we'll keep you updated!

David Glenn




Raining Again & Keeping An Eye On The Weekend

02/04/14

A rainy night through the early morning of Wednesday.  Colder and drier conditions follow.  We continue to watch the pattern for the weekend.

RAINY OVERNIGHT

Another soaking rainfall through the predawn hours of Wednesday as a storm system moves through the Tennessee Valley.  Rainfall amounts should average between 0.50" to 0.75" and a few spots near 1".  Breezy at times as well with an increasing south-southeast breeze through the night (more noticeable at higher elevations).

Rain should quickly taper off from west to east during the morning commute time Wednesday morning.

DRIER AND CHILLY THROUGH FRIDAY

After a damp start to Wednesday morning, the remainder of the day should be drier.  Some breaks in the clouds at times, but overall breezy at times and quite cool.  Afternoon temperatures should hold in the 40s with a steady drop during the afternoon.  A brisk north-northwest wind at 10-15mph adding a little more chill to the air.

Quite cold Wednesday night with temperatures dipping into the mid & upper 20s.  Thursday should be cloudy and again chilly with an afternoon high only in the low 40s (30s mountains).

For Friday, we'll continue to keep an eye on an active southerly flow to our south.  Some model data still suggests the possibility of some light precipitation (especially south) through early Friday.  We'll keep you updated on that.  Otherwise cloudy and chilly again Friday with a low in the 20s and a high in the upper 40s.

STILL WATCHING THE WEEKEND

Model data remains murky and uncertain for a possible weekend system along the Gulf Coast.  Tuesday model data showed a more weaker system zipping along the Gulf coast and only providing light precipitation locally Saturday.  But again, that's based on Tuesday model data.  This could of course change based on the strength and speed of that system moving in from the west.  For now the chance of showers will remain in the Saturday forecast as we continue to watch the exact path and evolution of that system. The GFS model even brings in some light precipitation very early Saturday which could mean a mix to begin with.  There still remains the possibility for some snow showers Sunday as the system moves along the Mid-Atlantic Coast and wraps colder air and moisture back into the Tennessee Valley.  Still too early to give an accumulation probability because of the uncertainty of this system.  But, that snow shower chance remains in the Sunday forecast for now and we will continue to watch how this system evolves!  As always, you can depend on us to keep you updated on this tricky pattern.

David Glenn




An Active Pattern Continues

02/03/14

A MORE TYPICAL FEBRUARY PATTERN

This "active" pattern is more typical of what you can expect locally during any given February.  Unlike the very cold and dry January pattern, the start of February has already started with an active southern stream flow.  In other words, a wet pattern.  And, it's this type of pattern that can be tricky with cold high pressure systems lurking to our north over the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT

Clouds should remain in place through Tuesday.  A few isolated showers here and there at any given point during the day, but the better coverage should be later into the afternoon and especially Tuesday night.  High temperatures Tuesday should range from the upper 40s (mountains) to low/mid 50s.  Rain likely Tuesday night with temperatures holding steady in the 40s.

Most of the widespread rain should end very early Wednesday morning.  Some higher elevation flurries possible over the northern Cumberland Plateau.  For most on Wednesday it should be cloudy and chilly with temperatures in the 40s.

DRY BRIEFLY THURSDAY

Thursday should be cloudy and again chilly with highs averaging in the low/mid 40s after a morning low in the upper 20s.

A FAST MOVING SYSTEM EARLY FRIDAY

The active southern stream flow continues into Friday.  Forecast model data does indicate the possibility of a quick moving upper level system along the Gulf Coast.  Some light precipitation could result late Thursday night and early Friday.  Amounts look light, but with temperatures hovering near 32 we will just have to watch to see if any precipitation results and if it could "mix".

The remainder of Friday looks cloudy with upper 40s for most and near 50 south.

WATCHING THE WEEKEND

A more significant storm system could affect the Southeast and Tennessee Valley over the weekend.  The exact track and development of the "low" remains in question as there is still some uncertainty among computer model guidance.  Current projections show the better rain chances should be on Saturday with the system moving northeast off the Gulf Coast.  Periods of rain Saturday and Saturday night.  40s during the day Saturday then briefly reaching near 50.  The back side of the system moves through on Sunday which could change the remaining rain showers to snow showers as the system exits.  Breezy and colder Sunday with temperatures falling into the 30s.  We'll continue to watch this system over the next few days and keep you updated on any accumulation chance.  Again, the exact track of the weekend low pressure system is still a bit in question.  Monday looks dry, but cold with a high in the 30s after a morning low in the 20s.

David Glenn




An Active Pattern To Begin February

01/31/14

An active pattern is setting up for the first week to 10 days of February.  This is right on the heels on one of the coldest January's locally!

JANUARY 2014 STATS

Taking a look at the full 31 days of January, the average temperature was 33.7 degrees.  This was 6.6 degrees below average.  Indeed, one of the coldest January periods in years.  The all time coldest January in Chattanooga was in 1977 when the average temperature was 28.5 degrees.  There were several mornings that month in 1977 there were below zero!  January 2014 had 5 mornings that were in the single digits.  The coldest being 5 degrees on both the 7th and the 30th (some spots away from the city were below zero).  The warmest day was the 20th when the high reached 64 degrees.

The average temperature so far for Winter 2014 is 39.3 degrees which is 4.3 degrees below average!  Snowfall for January totaled at 1.2".  That is also the total for the season which is 0.8" below average.

THREE SYSTEMS TO WATCH FOR THE NEXT 8 DAYS

An active pattern starts the month of February.  Saturday should be a quiet start with a gradual increase in cloud cover.  A few isolated showers are possible during the day and temperatures should be mild in the mid 50s.  Possibly even warmer should the clouds hold off from moving in.  System #1 slowly approaches later Saturday night and into Sunday.  This slow moving front coming in from the northwest should create a gradual increase in rain through Sunday (Groundhog Day).  Sunday afternoon temperatures should reach the lower 50s (40 mountains).

The off and on periods of rain should continue through Sunday night and Monday morning.  Our Cumberland Plateau and northern part of the viewing area could experience a period of the rain becoming a "mix" as colder temperatures nose in before the moisture exits from late Sunday night and into Monday morning.  We'll continue to keep an eye on that.

Temperatures in the city should hold above freezing in the mid/upper 30s Monday morning as the rain tapers off early.  Drier and seasonably cool conditions through the afternoon with highs in the upper 40s.

SYSTEM #2 TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY

A stronger storm system moves through the Southeast beginning on Tuesday.  A low pressure system should move out of the lower Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley.  This could spell some very wet weather for us and a lot of wintry weather for the Ohio Valley.  Expect our local rain chances to increase during the day Tuesday and continue through Tuesday night and Wednesday.  As a cold front moves through there could be some thundershowers across the region.  Severe threat looks low.  Rainfall amounts have been varying between the model forecasts.  Projections average between 0.50" to 1.50".  So, we'll keep an eye on that trend!

Tuesday should be mild in the 50s as the southerly flow increases.  Once the front passes during the first half of Wednesday, expect gradually colder air to move in and drop temperatures through the 40s as the rain tapers off later in the day.  Thursday looks dry with highs only in the 40s and lows Thursday night in the 20s.

SYSTEM #3 FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND

This is the possible system that still has folks talking!  As discussed in my previous blog post, model data continues to change daily.  That's nothing new since systems out to 7 days and beyond typically do that among the various forecast models.  The "snowy" scenario by the European model has eased off quite a bit during the Friday's model run.  The GFS and Canadian (CMC) both trended wetter instead of snowy.  The GFS even showing a wintry mix scenario locally for early next weekend on that model's late afternoon run.

So, you see, there is no consistency between the models.  We use these models for guidance and not as actual forecasts.  So, we just know that we need to watch the pattern and continue to watch model data for more consistency in the days ahead. Again, this is system #3 with the other 2 yet to move by.  That means a LOT can change in the days ahead!  Whether it ends up as rain, a mix or snow we will be watching every step of the way.

You can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Milder For The Weekend, But An Active Pattern Next Week

01/30/14

THAW CONTINUES FRIDAY

Cold again for Friday morning as temperatures should again drop off into the mid/upper 10s. Temperatures should continue to rise through the day under a partly sunny sky. Temperatures by the afternoon should reach the upper 40s (low/mid 40s mountains).

CLOUDY AND GRADUALLY WETTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND

Cloudy and a little milder Saturday with low/mid 50s by afternoon. Just a slight chance for light rain Saturday with the better chances for Saturday night and into Sunday. Sunday's highs again in the 50s with the rain tapering early Monday morning.  There could be a period of the rain ending as a wintry mix Sunday night and early Monday along the Cumberland Plateau.  Rainfall amounts with this system do not appear to be heavy with most model guidance showing amounts staying under 0.50".  This will be system #1 of 3 systems to watch for the next 8 days.

SOAKING RAINFALL POSSIBLE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

An active weather pattern next week. Soaking rainfall possible Tuesday and into Wednesday. A stronger storm system moves in Tuesday and Wednesday.  Locally, this could mean some soaking rainfall and even some thundershowers due to the strength of the system.  Model projections point to possibly an inch of rain on average.  Rain could taper off as some higher elevation flurries later Wednesday as colder air moves in.  Temperatures could steadily drop through the 40s during the day and even 30s mountains.

COLDER LATE WEEK

Colder air could settle back late Wednesday and into Thursday as high temperatures could only reach the low 40s by the afternoon and morning lows in the upper 20s.  The cold air could hold through the end of the week on Friday.

LATE WEEK MODEL MADNESS

A lot of folks have asked me about a system that longer range models show for late next week (Friday & Saturday).  Yes, I have seen the models as I track them daily.  So many different scenarios between the various global models (GFS, ECMWF & Canadian).  So, you have to take these with a grain of salt for now.  It's just a model opinion.  Nobody knows what is going to happen.  Just look back at earlier this week with discrepancies between the models.   So, we'll just keep an eye on things and keep you update in the days ahead.

David Glenn




Bitter Cold Again Thursday Morning, Then The Arctic Grip Eases

01/29/14

ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON

Temperatures early Thursday morning could again drop to the single digits in many local spots.  If that occurs at Lovell Field, it would be for the 5th time this month.  I would have to dig deeper in the record books to see where this ranks.  The record coldest January in Chattanooga was in 1977 which also had 5 mornings in the single digits (2 of those below zero).  But, the average temperature that record month in 1977 was 28.5 degrees.  We are not quite to the level yet, with the average temperature of January 2014 at 34.6 degrees through the 28th.

After that bitter chill Thursday morning, expect temperatures to finally rise above freezing into the upper 30s (mid 30s mountains) to even near 40 in spots.  This, along with sunshine should further help aid area roadways.  There could still be problems even on shaded, less traveled roads through Friday morning as temperatures dip back into the upper 10s.

Friday should be even milder with a partly sunny sky and afternoon temperatures in the upper 40s to even near 50 in spots.

MILDER AND GRADUALLY WETTER WEEKEND

Sunday looks to be the wetter of the two days for the weekend.  Skies should become cloudy for Saturday.  A continued southwest wind should allow temperatures to reach the low & mid 50s through the afternoon.  A few showers could creep in from the west through the afternoon, but not too widespread yet.  The coverage of rain should pick up through Saturday night and into Sunday.  Sunday's high temperatures should again be in the 50s. 

It's also going to be cloudy Sunday (Groundhog Day).  So, will Chattanooga Chuck see his shadow?  We shall see!

COOL & WET TO START NEXT WEEK

Off and on periods of rain are possible Monday through Wednesday as a more active southern stream sets up across the Southeast.  This flow has been largely absent for most of January because of the strong arctic "highs" suppressing that moisture farther south.  But, with a more active southern stream, you have to keep an eye on colder air lurking to the north.

Through Tuesday, highs should average in the 50s, then possibly ease back to the 40s as slightly colder air trickles in.

MODEL WILDNESS IN THE LONG RANGE

Beyond 7 days, I don't put much weight on computer model forecasts.  I just simply watch the patterns and see how the guidance models react.  Most of you who read this blog already know this about me!  The longer range global forecast models like the US GFS Model and the Eurpean (ECMWF) model are showing some wildness in the pattern into the weekend of Feb 7th-9th.  The European Model is the wildest with some snowy scenarios.  But, it hasn't had a good track record so far this winter.  The GFS flip flops a bit in the long range from snowy to rainy scenarios.  So, we just continue to observe the upcoming pattern....take each system one at a time....and then see how model guidance reacts.   Both models do agree on a long range colder pattern.  So, let's see how it shakes out! 

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Flakes Winding Down And So Are The Temperatures

01/28/14

BANDS OF SNOW WINDING DOWN

The storm system to our south and east off the Southeast Coast will help end the snow showers across the viewing area rather quickly later this evening.  The combination of the system moving out and the cold arctic air moving will help dry things out through the overnight hours.

It should be bitterly cold through the night.  With snow cover, temperatures could drop off rapidly to near 10 in the city, but single digits away from the city.  The Wind Chill will make it feel like below zero conditions from time to time.

MODEL HANDLING OF SYSTEM

For those of you who track the computer models, I always like to look back and see how the models handled a storm system.  The Good?  Well, all models helped us identify what to watch.  And, that was the upper level disturbance which as of Monday night was moving out of the middle Mississippi Valley.  Most of the model data showed that some accumulating snowfall was possible.  The Bad?  The models underestimated the amount of available moisture, but not by much.  Model data averaged around 0.5" to 1" which wasn't too bad.  But, because of overrunning moisture from the Gulf system, the atmosphere moistened up quite a bit.  This allowed the snow showers to last longer through the day and into the early evening, instead of ending through mid/late afternoon.  That in turn led to the slightly higher amounts and spreading over a larger part of the viewing area, especially farther north and west.

I would say that the GFS model did a very good job handling the overrunning moisture better than the NAM, European and Canadian. Our in house RPM model that I showed at 11pm Monday Night did a good job of showing that the swath of snowfall could cover a larger part of the viewing area.  The models handled the time frame well in the early part of the system, but the longevity was a little while longer well into the early evening hours.

SUNSHINE RETURNS WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY

Main roads should benefit a bit with some sunshine Wednesday.  But, many secondary rounds will still remain hazardous because air temperatures won't make it above 32.  Wednesday night's lows should drop back to the lower 10s.  Thursday should be a little milder in the lower 40s by afternoon.

MILDER DAYS AHEAD & GRADUALLY WETTER

Friday should be a little milder in the upper 40s, but with more cloud cover.  A slight chance for a little rain into the afternoon.  A gradual increase in rain chances by Saturday (not all day) with highs in the 50s.  A better coverage for rain Saturday night and the first have of Sunday.

David Glenn




Arctic Returns.....Keeping An Eye on Tuesday

01/27/14

ARCTIC AIR IS BACK...AGAIN!

As expected, Arctic air returns again tonight as temperatures drop into the low/mid 10s. Breezy through the night as well with a north wind at 15mph pushing the Wind Chill into the single digits. Some Wind Chill values could dip below zero especially at higher elevations.  Wind Chill Advisories are in effect through 10am Tuesday.

FLAKES POSSIBLE TUESDAY

Cloudy and cold Tuesday with highs only in the mid/upper 20s. A big winter storm will be developing to our south along the Gulf Coast. This will spread a large swath of accumulating snows well to our south (Montgomery, Columbus, Macon, Augusta).  I have been pouring over forecast models since the weekend keeping an eye on an upper level system that could move through the Tennessee Valley late Tuesday morning, then quickly move out during the afternoon.  That upper level system should help enhance the snow potential for areas farther to our south over central/southern GA/AL. Our local viewing area will be on the fringe of some light flurries & snow showers from late Tuesday morning to the afternoon. The better chances for flakes locally should be from Chattanooga to across the southern and eastern sections of the viewing area. Any resulting accumulation looks light with a dusting to half inch, especially farther south and into the eastern mountains. A few spots in the eastern mountains and valley pockets (Murphy, Andrews, Blue Ridge) could be near an inch. This has been a tricky system to watch develop and we will continue to keep an eye on it!  Could things change?  Of course it could.  That's why we watch these wintry systems very carefully!  If you have travel plans south of Atlanta Tuesday and Tuesday night, that part of central and southern Georgia/Alabama and into South Carolina could have major travel problems due to snow and ice.

COLD HOLDS ON FOR A FEW DAYS

Skies should clear out Tuesday night and another bitterly cold night can be expected. Low temperatures from 10-13 in the city, which means single digits possible away from the city. Sunny Wednesday with a high only in the upper 20s to near 30.  Temperatures dipping back into the 10s again by Thursday morning, but followed by afternoon temperatures sneaking above 40.

MILDER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND

Clouds should return gradually Friday along with afternoon temperatures back near 50.  The 50s should continue for both Saturday and Sunday afternoon but also with a gradual increase in rain coverage.

David Glenn




Rising Weekend Temperatures & Some Saturday Snowflakes

01/24/14

WINDY AT TIMES SATURDAY & SOME MOUNTAIN FLAKES

Another clipper system rolls through on Saturday bringing clouds back and increasing the wind from the southwest.  Gusty at times with wind speeds on average from 15-25mph. This should help boost temperatures just a little bit into the low 40s (still 30s mountains). The clipper will have just a little moisture and this could result in some periods of flurries and sprinkles/light rain. A better chance of some light snow showers along the Plateau region and the Smoky/Blue Ridge Mtns (the typical spots in these cases). Any resulting mountain accumulations very light. Skies should clear out quickly Saturday night with low temperatures dipping back into the lower 20s.

SUNNY & BRIEFLY MILDER SUNDAY

Sunday looks very nice with sunshine and temperatures back in the upper 40s.  A few spots to the south could reach 50. It's a brief warm up as arctic air moves right back in on Monday.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR

Again, some sprinkles/flurries accompanying the cold air along with a strong northwest wind. Afternoon temperatures on Monday only in the 30s.
  The arctic air really settles in Tuesday as high temperatures should only reach near 30 and possibly only upper 20s for highs Wednesday.  This means another stretch of 60 hours or so consecutively below freezing.  Morning lows could again dip back into the low 10s and even single digits in spots by Wednesday morning.

FORECAST MODEL QUESTIONS

As I mentioned in Thursday's blog post, forecast model data has been very inconsistent.  That is sort of a "red flag" in the forecasting world.  This means that each system that rolls through locally and regionally should be closely watched (one system at a time) as model data will be changing from run to run and day to day.  The time frame that has a lot of us watching is Tuesday through Thursday.  Most of these model runs keep our part of the Tennessee Valley dry and cold.  But, just to our south along the Gulf coast and eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic could be a developing storm system that could lead to a larger storm along the Mid-Atlantic.

Forecast model trends since Thursday have shown a gradual inching "westward" of this system closer to the Mid-Atlantic Coast by mid next week.  This scenario still keeps the bulk of moisture south and east of us.  But, with that westward trend lately, it just means that we should keep an eye on it.  Not even worth speculating further because the model trends are so inconsistent.  That will just be something to watch in the days ahead.  And, as always, you can depend on us for updates.

Longer range trends do show a gradual easing of the arctic grip on the Tennessee Valley by next weekend.  At the same time though, the rising temps could mean rising precipitation chances (Saturday & Sunday).  Again, it's winter, and that means you gotta watch systems one at a time.

David




Bitter Cold Friday Morning....40s Return For The Weekend

01/23/14

SINGLE DIGITS & < 0 WIND CHILL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

Tonight should be the coldest night so far of this latest round of arctic air! Temperatures should settle down to around 10 in Chattanooga, but most areas away from the city should dip into the single digits. A steady breeze from the north will produce Wind Chill levels at times below zero.

Sunshine, but still cold Friday with afternoon highs in the upper 20s and even near 30 in spots.

40s RETURN BRIEFLY FOR THE WEEKEND.....SOME MOUNTAIN FLAKES SATURDAY

Back to the upper 10s by early Saturday morning. Clouds return Saturday as another clipper system rolls through. Temperatures should rise to just above 40. Some flurries or light snow showers across the northern Cumberland Plateau as well as the Smoky Mtns & Blue Ridge Mtns.  Only very light accumulation except for the higher peaks of the Smokies. Cold again Sunday morning with upper 10s, but then sunny and upper 40s by afternoon.

ARCTIC STILL EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

Upper 30s briefly Monday before another round of arctic air rolls in. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday only near 32 and morning lows pushed back to the lower 10s again.
Local temperatures should stay below normal for most of next week.

LONGER RANGE....ANY SNOW?

If you have been scanning the longer range forecast models you have no doubt seen some "on again...off again" potential snow makers for the Tennessee Valley and Southeast for parts of next week and the following weekend.  The models have been inconsistent with timing, strength & amount of moisture.  So, we basically have to watch each wave that attempts to move through, especially next week.  And, in the next few model runs of both the US, European & Canadian Models you will no doubt still see some run to run changes.  That's about all we can do is watch and observe!

As always, you can depend on us for updates right here on the blog!

David Glenn




Arctic Air Reloads!

01/22/14

ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST THURSDAY

It may still be another 65 to 70 hours before most of our viewing area rises above the freezing mark!

Still no relief from the chill as a reinforcing blast of arctic air arrives Thursday morning. Temperatures by sunrise won't be quite as low as this morning, but still down right cold with upper 10s to lower 20s. Breezy and cold the rest of the day as temperatures may not make it out of the upper 20s along with a wind chill due to a stiff north wind at 10-20mph.

Very cold through Friday morning with lows in the single digits to around 10.  A few spots north could get very close to the "0" degree mark.  Friday afternoon remains cold with upper 20s, but not as windy.

BRIEF WEEKEND WARM UP

The weekend starts bitterly cold again with mid/upper 10s by Saturday morning. But, by afternoon, temperatures should finally rise above freezing to the low 40s (30s mountains). A little milder Sunday with upper 40s.  A few spots south could be lucky enough to reach 50 degrees.

HERE WE GO AGAIN....MORE ARCTIC AIR

That milder air Sunday will be brief as another arctic blast rolls in Monday dropping afternoon highs back to the 30s Monday through Wednesday and morning lows back to the mid 10s.

COLD & DRY PATTERN, BUT KEEP AN EYE ON LATE NEXT WEEK

The pattern remains dry through this period. But, precipitation chances could increase a bit late next week. 
There is still quite a bit of disagreement between the various long range forecast models about a possible precipitation maker for late next week and the following weekend.  Differences in timing and strength continue to show up between the US and European models.  So, again, we'll keep an eye on that since it is still 8 to 9 days down the road.

David Glenn




The Arctic Invades Again!

01/21/14

ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY

The arctic air will continue to settle in through tonight. The snow shower activity should slowly wind down to flurries by later Tuesday evening. Temperatures will continue to tumble into the mid 10s overnight. A strong north wind at 15-20mph could drop Wind Chill levels below zero during the night. Partly sunny and cold Tuesday with a high barely above 32 (near 30 mountains). Not as windy, but a steady breeze from the southwest at 10mph.

ROUND TWO OF THE ARCTIC INVASION THURSDAY

A reinforcing blast of arctic air arrives again by Thursday morning. Expect a low near 20, but an afternoon high only near 30. Low 10s and even a few spots in the single digits by Friday morning. Friday's high with sunshine only near 33. Very few hours of the next 72 to 84 will make it above freezing.  And, for most. that may not happen until Saturday afternoon!

MODERATING WEEKEND TEMPERATURES

Dry for the weekend with afternoon temperatures slowly warming back to the mid & upper 40s. Morning lows in the 20s instead of 10s.

LONGER RANGE COULD STILL BE COLD

Looking way out toward next week shows another possible blast of cold air for Tuesday and Wednesday with high temperatures dropping back to the 30s and even some mornings in the 10s.

Many of you have asked me about any upcoming snow chances.  That chance remains very low through at least next Monday.  Beyond that time there are some chances showing up in the forecast models (Both US and European) for late next week.  But, that is beyond day 7 on the forecast models.  There is just simply no way to pinpoint a specific chance.  The model data is just indicating that we should pay attention to mid/late next week weather trends and that is about all we can do for now.  Observe and look for model consistency!

David




Some Snow Showres This Afternoon

01/21/14

With the colder air arriving we are seeing some rain and snow showers. No accumulations in valleys less than an inch mountains. Bill Race.




Arctic Air Making A Comeback!

01/20/14

I hope you enjoyed the awesome weather today because tomorrow is going way downhill. Overnight temperatures will be dropping into the low to middle 30s. By noon tomorrow temperatures could reach into the upper 30s before free-falling into the 20s by 5pm. There is a small chance of light snow showers Tuesday, however, no accumulations are expected except for the slight chance of a dusting along the highest elevations of the Plateau and Blue Ridge and Smoky Mountains.

Waking up Wednesday morning will be COLD!! Temperatures will be in the low to mid 10s and most areas will not see temperatures rise out of the 20s. To add insult to injury it will be windy so the wind chill will make it feel like the single digits Wednesday morning and teens throughout Wednesday. 




Cold For The Weekend & Longer Range

01/17/14

A CHILLY HOLIDAY WEEKEND

Partly sunny Saturday with upper 10s to near 20 during the morning and low 40s by afternoon (30s mountains). Expect more cloud cover through the afternoon. Another clipper system rolls through Saturday night with a quick chance of overnight flurries or light snow showers (mountains) with a low near 30.  It should become windy at tines through the night with a southwest to northwest wind at 15-20mph. Sunshine returns for Sunday afternoon after some morning clouds with mid/upper 40s by afternoon.

BRIEFLY MILDER MONDAY (DR MARTIN LUTHER KING HOLIDAY)

Monday should be the nicest day with sunshine and a brief warm up to the mid 50s by afternoon. It should become breezy at times during the afternoon with an increasing southwest wind.  A lot of sun through early afternoon, then more clouds through late afternoon.

COLD PATTERN RESUMES

The cold flow from the northwest resumes again by Tuesday with breezy, colder conditions and even some flurries & upper 30s for highs. Below normal temperatures should continue through all of next week and even into the following weekend. Coldest morning lows by Wednesday with mid/upper 10s. Precipitation chances remaining very light for now.

Longer range projections into the weekend of the 25th and into the following week continue the below normal temperature trend.  As I mentioned in Thursday's post there are attempts by the models to have some southern stream moisture mix in.  That typically can create some wintry precipitation chances.  But, model data is very inconsistent with timing and placement of these systems.  So, there is simply no way to pinpoint a specific chance.  We can only speculate that the pattern could become more active and interesting.  Model data will continue to go back and forth with different scenarios.  Consistency is the key to the forecast.  As always, I will keep you updated!

David




Colder Than Average Temperatures Sticking Around

01/16/14

JANUARY SO FAR.....

The average temperature for January so far at Lovell Field has been 36.9 degrees which is 3.1 degrees below average.  This takes into account both the arctic outbreak and resulting warm up that followed.  It looks like the second half of the month could stay below seasonal averages as well.

BREEZY & CHILLY FRIDAY

A chilly pattern continues as we head into the weekend. The persistent flow from the northwest will keep sending shots of cold air our way through early Sunday. There could be some flurries & patchy light snow flying around at times Friday (both before and after sunrise), but any resulting accumulation very light and limited to higher elevations.. Upper 20s overnight and upper 30s to lower 40s Friday and windy at times which should make it feel even colder.

BELOW NORMAL WEEKEND TEMPS

Saturday should be sunny, but chilly with an afternoon high only around 40 (30s mountains).  Another clipper moves through Saturday night and that could bring some pockets of flurries or patchy light snow overnight and through the predawn hours of Sunday.  Again, any accumulation very light and limited to higher elevations and north.
Morning clouds Sunday should give way to some afternoon sun with highs in the mid to upper 40s.

BRIEF WARM UP MONDAY

 A "brief" warm up Monday (Dr Martin Luther King Holiday) with highs in the mid 50s after a morning low in the upper 20s.

COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN STICKING AROUND

If you like cold weather, you should like the longer range pattern. If not, you might want to stop reading . A colder than normal pattern should continue through mid to late week and even colder into the following weekend and week to follow as arctic air could come back into play. Some occasional flurry chances from time to time next week (Tuesday & Thursday). But, longer range models are starting to show some Gulf moisture coming into the picture in the long range (weekend of the 25th and beyond). So, the pattern could get interesting in the long range.   There is simply no way of knowing if, when or how much in the way of any snow chances could occur.  You forecast model watchers out there will notice the models will jump around a bit with timing and moisture amounts.  The models are simply responding to a pattern that could favor the southern jet flow interacting with the strong northerly jet that will try to send more arctic air southward toward late month.  "If" that panned out, it could be interesting.  But, for now, all we can do is watch and observe the pattern.  We simply cannot control the weather :).


David




Colder Pattern Sets Up Again

01/15/14

MUCH COLDER BY THURSDAY MORNING

Pockets of light snow/rain still possible through the early evening.  Only minor accumulation at best along some higher terrain.  Breezy at times and much colder through the night with temperatures dipping into the lower 20s (some upper 10s possible)

COLD PATTERN STICKS AROUND

A persistent upper flow from the northwest will continue to usher in cold shots of air again Friday and through the weekend. Some flurries or pockets of light snow from time to time as well from late Thursday night and into Friday.  Again, this type of pattern is not a typical big snow maker for our area.  So, any resulting accumulation from these pockets of flakes should be very light/minor and limited to higher elevations. Afternoon temperatures Friday in the upper 30s mountains to low 40s valley. Friday night's temperatures should dip into the upper 10s to near 20.

 HOLIDAY WEEKEND

The holiday weekend starts out very cold in the upper 10s Saturday, but should exhibit a gradual milder trend and sunny through Monday (Dr Martin Luther King Holiday).  Near 40 for Saturday afternoon, then upper 40s Sunday afternoon.  Low to mid 50s possible by Monday afternoon.  Morning lows in the 20s Sunday and Monday morning.

Mostly dry through the weekend, but with that upper northwesterly flow continuing, there could be another round of flurries to float through late Saturday night and early Sunday.  Again, aside from any minor mountain dustings, this should move through quickly and dry out for Sunday.  Sun returns Sunday and again for Monday.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK

Longer range projections indicate the possibility of some light rain Tuesday. Also, another colder than normal pattern could again settle in for late month.  That pattern could start to settle in by late next week.  We've not even reached the mid part of Winter yet.  Keep those heavier coats handy!   (David)




Winter Conditions Return Wednesday

01/14/14

After a break from Winter's chill, it's back to reality for January starting Wednesday

CLIPPER ROLLS IN WEDNESDAY MORNING

A clipper system approaches the Tennessee Valley late tonight bringing colder temperatures and a little moisture as well. This could create a period of light rain to light snow showers late in the night and through Wednesday morning. Any accumulation should be very light and mainly at higher elevations ranging from a dusting to 1/2" on average. A few spots along the Plateau and Blue Ridge Mtns around an 1" (up to 2" higher spots north). Mainly dustings at some valley locations.  But, this could happen in and around the morning rush time. Temperatures by Wednesday morning should be in the low/mid 30s valley (above freezing) to between 30-32 mountains (below freezing). So, there could be some slick spots on the mountain tops. Breezy and cold the rest of Wednesday with occasional flurries and light mountain snow showers. Highs only in the upper 30s.  A steady northwest wind at 10-15mph. 

As always, when any threat of wintry weather, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team to keep you updated!

COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR A WHILE

Low 20s Wednesday night through Thursday morning, but some upper 10s possible in spots north and mountains. Sunny, but chilly Thursday with low 40s by afternoon. This cold, northwest upper flow should continue into the weekend. Another clipper system moves through on Friday dropping afternoon highs to the 30s along with another chance of mainly flurries. 10s on tap for Friday night and Saturday morning. Dry, with slowly warming temperatures late weekend and Monday (Dr Martin Luther King Holiday). Rain chances should pick up again by early to mid next week.

Longer range patterns, especially the trends from the European Model still point to possibly more cold shots of air through late next week and the weekend of the 25th.  Winter is a long way from over!

David Glenn




Milder Tuesday, Then Colder Air Settles In For A While

01/13/14

ENJOY TUESDAY'S WARMTH!

Briefly nicer and milder Tuesday before winter temperatures return Wednesday. Expect the return of some sun after some morning clouds with highs in the mid 50s (near 50 mountains).  Clouds should quickly begin streaming in later in the afternoon.

REMEMBER, IT'S STILL JANUARY!

 A clipper system moves through late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning bringing back the winter chill and even some periods of flurries & light snow showers. These types of clippers are not our big snow makers for around here.  But, it could provide some very light accumulation, especially at higher elevations. It will be windy and colder Wednesday with highs only in the upper 30s.  Pockets of flurries and mountain light snow showers could linger into the afternoon.  Quite cold Wednesday night as temperatures dip to near 20 (some 10s possible).

STAYING CHILLY FOR A WHILE

This cold air mass won't equal the arctic outbreak from last week, but it should keep our local temperatures below seasonal averages.

Sunshine returns for Thursday with mid 40s and then dipping back to the upper 20s Thursday Night. Yet another fast moving cold front rolls through on Friday bringing clouds along with windy and colder conditions with highs only in the upper 30s.  There could be some moisture with that system.  Just enough to produce some flurries or snow showers Friday evening.  Still looks light at this time, but like the first clipper for early Wednesday we will keep an eye on it.

Mostly dry for the weekend and through Monday (Dr Martin Luther King Holiday).  Daily highs in the 40s, except near 50 Monday with cold morning lows in the 20s.

David Glenn




Thundershowers And Rain Moving Through

01/11/14

Radar Image: Rain and thundershowers continue to move across our region from West to East. Bill Race.

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Thundershowers And Rain Moving Through


A Nice End To The Weekend, But Colder Again Next Week

01/10/14

WETTER AND BRIEFLY WARMER SATURDAY

A wet start to the weekend, but it will not rain for the entire weekend! The coverage of rain increases locally through tonight with temperatures holding steady in the upper 40s. Soaking rainfall to begin Saturday, but tapering off from west to east through late afternoon. Expect an afternoon high in the upper 50s to even low 60s in spots. Up to 1" on average possible across the viewing area.  Heavier amounts to the south possible.

Windy at times as well Saturday with a steady breeze from the west-southwest at between 10-20mph along with some higher gusts.  Stronger gusts possible at higher elevations.

DRIER & SEASONAL SUNDAY

Drier for your evening plans Saturday Night, then seasonably cold through the overnight hours with low/mid 30s. A gorgeous day Sunday with sun returning and low/mid 50s by afternoon (upper 40s to near 50 local mountains).

A MILD START TO THE WEEK

Monday again looks very mild with highs in the upper 50s. But, expect a rapid increase in cloud cover and some showers by late day and through Monday night. Showers should end Tuesday morning, then low 50s by afternoon.  Rainfall amounts through Monday night do not appear to be heavy.

MUCH COLDER PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK

A clipper system rolls through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning bringing a colder air mass back to the Tennessee Valley along with some flurries and snow showers. This still does not appear to be a big snowy system as any accumulation looks very light and limited to higher elevations through Wednesday morning. Windy and sharply colder Wednesday with highs only in the upper 30s to near 40. Remaining cold the rest of the week with highs in the 40s and morning lows in the 20s to near 30.

While this round of cold air is not quite the "arctic" variety, it should still keep temperatures colder then normal for mid January!

David Glenn




A Wet Start To The Weekend, But A Drier End

01/09/14

MILDER THROUGH FRIDAY

Temperatures through early Friday morning should stay above freezing in the mid/upper 30s along with just some patchy light rain. Cloudy and even milder Friday with again just a slight chance for rain through the afternoon. Expect a high temperature in the lower 50s (upper 40s mountains).

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT & SATURDAY MORNING

A better chance for rain can be expected for Friday night and the first half of Saturday. Even warmer Saturday with a high near 60. Most of the rain should taper off from west to east through the late afternoon.  Model forecast projections still indicate between 0.75" to 1" possible through early Saturday afternoon.  Saturday night should be drier with overnight temperatures dipping into the 30s.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKS NICE!

Sunday looks terrific with sunshine returning and a seasonal high in the low 50s after a morning low in the 30s.
 
SEASONAL NEXT WEEK

A slight chance for rain by late Monday, but not before temperatures warm to the upper 50s by afternoon. Models tend to disagree on the amount of rain with the European model a little more bullish than the GFS.  The rain could end as some flurries or snow showers over the Smokies & Blue Ridge Mtns early Tuesday morning.

Tuesday looks drier after the morning hours with a mix of clouds and sun with afternoon temperatures near 50.  Breezy and colder conditions moving back in for late Tuesday night and early Wednesday.  We could also see some scattered flurries through early Wednesday with highs on Wednesday only in the low 40s.

The next chance for precipitation could arrive by late next Thursday night and Friday.  Again, models disagree on the timing and amount with just a trace noted by the GFS, while the European Model favors around 0.30".  The European Model also favors that the precipitation could be a light wintry mix through Friday morning.  Still way too early to speculate in that.  But of course we will watch the trends in the days ahead!

David Glenn




Milder Days Ahead, Then Wetter

01/08/14

FINALLY ABOVE FREEZING!

At 12:40pmET Wednesday, temperatures finally went above freezing in Chattanooga! Still quite cold tonight, though nothing like the past few nights. Expect an overnight low in the low 20s (10s north & mountains). The slow warming trend continues Thursday along with increasing cloud cover. Afternoon temperatures in the upper 40s, but a few spots nearing 50.

MILDER DAYS AHEAD, BUT ALSO WETTER

Cloudy with low 50s Friday along with a few scattered light showers (30%). The better rain chances later Friday night and into Saturday. Highs on Saturday in the upper 50s to near 60 with periods of rain through the day. Up to an 1" of rain possible. The rain should taper off by late afternoon.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK

Drier and seasonal Sunday & Monday with lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s. Another cold front rolls in late Tuesday and Wednesday with colder temperatures (not arctic) and even some flurries early Wednesday. Highs by Wednesday held back to the upper 30s. Longer range projections continue to keep us in a colder than normal pattern beyond mid month. It's still just early in the Winter season!

David




Another Bitterly Cold Night, Then Milder!

01/07/14

NOT A RECORD BREAKER TONIGHT, BUT STILL BITTERLY COLD!

Tonight's record low in Chattanooga is 6 from 1970. While we probably won't tie or break that record, it will still be bitterly cold. Expect an overnight low in the lower 10s valley and single digits north and mountains.

By Wednesday afternoon we should finally break above the freezing mark with upper 30s (near freezing mountains) and even some low 40s in spots south. The warming trend continues through Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 40s to near 50 Thursday along with more clouds but only a small chance of rain. Mid 50s Friday along with a slight chance for rain. Rain chances and temperatures both increase through the weekend with low 60s Saturday and some heavy rain possible. Mid 50s with lingering periods of rain Sunday.

David




The Coldest Night In Years!

01/06/14

The coldest night in years is still on tap for the Tennessee Valley tonight. Scattered flurries will still be possible from time to time through late afternoon and evening and temperatures will continue to steadily fall. Clear and dangerously cold tonight with a low in the city near 6, but from 0 to -2 at higher elevations and north, especially those with a little snow cover. Wind Chill will range from 0 to -10 tonight valley, to as low as -15 at higher elevations due to the steady wind from the WNW at 10-20mph.

Tuesday looks sunny but still very cold with an afternoon high only in the low 20s (10s mountains). Clear and very cold again Tuesday night with a low in the valley from 10-14 and single digits north and mountains. Temperatures could finally get above freezing for most by late Wednesday afternoon with a high in the mid/upper 30s (around freezing mountains). Wednesday night will still be quite cold with upper 10s mountains and low 20s valley.

Cloudy Thursday with low/mid 40s by late day. We will need to keep an eye on any sprinkle or light rain activity in spots that if early enough could be a brief wintry mix. Otherwise, temperatures aloft and at the surface begin to warm considerably through Friday and Saturday. Rain chances slowly increasing with highs near 50 Friday and upper 50s Saturday with the best chance for rain.

Please stay safe these next few nights with these extremely cold temperatures. Heat your home safely and dress accordingly protecting yourself from the temperature and wind chill....(David)




Weather Thoughts From Bill Race

01/05/14

Monday:

5:26 am

We have some flurries and snow showers still to go this morning.  But accumulations are very light.  But we still have some icy roads in the region.  Temperatures in the teens by late this morning or early afternoon.   Dangerous wind chills through Tuesday morning.

Sunday 

3:56  pm

The ZoomRadar link to track the precipitation on your desktop. http://www.newschannel9.com/weather/features/zoom/

Get our weather app at your app store, "WTVC WX"

3:42 pm: 

Starting a running blog as we approach the very cold air moving in tonight.  This is a graphic for snowfall potential based on one of the forecast solutions called the GFS.  http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_72HR.gif  Snowfall amounts are a part of the story, but certainly the bitter cold will be a longer lasting effect. 




Winter Weather Advisory As Bitter Cold Is Set To Move In

01/05/14

Winter Weather Advisory in effect tonight for the entire viewing area. 

StormTrack 9 Forecast: Models are backing off snow amounts slightly as the moisture behind the system will dry out a little quicker than expected. However, a dusting to an inch is still possible across the area tonight. 

The bigger concern is the colder air still poised to rush in. Even with the strong winds, some roads will freeze very quickly tonight and could remain frozen for quite some time as temperatures won't be above freezing until Wednesday. 

Lows tonight will be in the upper teens and will hold steady there through Monday before plummeting Tuesday morning into the single digits for the valleys and below 0 for the mountaintops. Wind chill values will be in the single digits Monday before falling to -10 to -20 Tuesday morning. 

Jason Disharoon




Second Arctic Blast Strong Than The First

01/03/14

The first arctic blast was cold Friday, but the second one arriving Sunday night and Monday should provide a stronger punch with some accumulating snowfall possible and the coldest air locally in years!  The factors to watch for Sunday evening through Monday morning are rapidly falling temperatures, possible accumulating snowfall, rapid icing of some roads & bitter Wind Chill readings.

SUNNY SATURDAY

Saturday should be the calm day before the drastic changes occur late Sunday.  Expect sunshine with morning temperatures near 20, but quickly rebounding back to the low/mid 40s by afternoon along with a south-southeast breeze. 

HERE IT COMES LATE SUNDAY!

Sunday will have quite a change in temperature from morning to afternoon to evening.  Cloudy during the morning.  Even before sunrise and just after their could be some sprinkles or flurries in spots as a quick round of light precipitation moves in.  This should be brief, but with temperatures early from 30-32 we will need to keep an eye on it.  But, that is not the big system!

Before the arctic air arrives, we should experience a brief jump in temperatures from the upper 40s to lower 50s just as the rain arrives during the late afternoon.  Mild enough briefly to make you think that the arctic air is all just hype!  Showers should continue into the early evening, then a drastic drop in temperature occurs.  So quickly that we could be below freezing well before midnight.  Also quick enough that the rain showers should transition to snow showers (similar to the system we had Thursday night).  But, there should be little more moisture available that could lead to some accumulating snowfall.

Just based on computer model precipitation projections, our local area could see 1"-2" on average as the snow showers quickly move through (1/2"-1" valley and 1"-2" mountains).  Of course, the timing of the cold air arrival could fluctuate that amount.  So, we will continue to watch that trend through the weekend.  Also, any runoff from the early rain could rapidly freeze on roadways ("flash freezing").  It could happen quicker than you might think.  So, please use caution if you have travel plans Sunday night and into Monday morning.

BITTER COLD & WIND CHILL

Aside from the snow showers and rapid freezing, the Wind Chill is another big factor.  Air temperatures by Monday morning could drop to the low 10s (nearly a 40 degree drop from Sunday's high).  The Wind Chill could be below zero in many areas Monday morning.  The temperature will struggle to even reach near 20 Monday with 10s most of the day.  The bitter Wind Chill continues in the single digits and near 0 through the afternoon.

It has been since January 16, 2009 that we last had single digit temperatures recorded in Chattanooga (9 degrees that morning).  But, Tuesday morning, those bitterly cold readings return with a low in the city near 5 and near 0 or slightly below north and highest elevations.  The record low for Tuesday morning in Chattanooga is 9 set in 1970.  We could easily smash that record.  Just in case you were wondering, the all time record low in Chattanooga is -10 which has been recorded on 3 separate occasions, the latest on January 21, 1985.

Tuesday's high temperature should sneak above 20 to the mid 20, but still below freezing.  Lower 10s by Wednesday morning.  Sunny again Wednesday and finally above freezing with low 40s by afternoon.  We could have just over 60 straight hours of temperatures below freezing!

THAWING LATE WEEK & WATCHING RAINFALL RETURN

By Thursday we will have to closely watch for the timing of the arrival of rainfall.  With temperatures in the upper 20s early that morning, any early arriving rain could begin as a mix.  A later arriving rainfall could be less problematic as temperatures late day should be in the 40s.  So, that's another system we will closely watch.

Rain chances slowly increase for Friday and Saturday, but high temperatures should be much warmer in the 50s!

David Glenn




The Calm Before The Chill!

01/01/14

2014 began sunny and nice locally, but that is about to change!  Old Man Winter is about to pay us a visit with some of the coldest air of the season so far!

RAIN RETURNS THURSDAY & COULD MIX BEFORE ENDING

Rain moves in very early Thursday in advance of a cold front moving in from the northwest.  Rainfall amounts should generally be light (0.25" or less).  Temperatures Thursday should initially reach the low/mid 40s by midday (upper 30s mountains), then drop during the afternoon as the colder air arrives.  Temperatures could be in the mid/upper 30s by sunset valley and near 30 mountains.  With some moisture sticking around as the cold air arrives, there could be some periods of light sleet/snow mixing with the rain before ending.  Best chances will be at higher elevations, but even some flurries are possible valley late day and early evening.  Any accumulation resulting from this should be light and limited to higher elevations.  1/2" or so Plateau region in spots.  The better chance for accumulating snowfall should be along the higher peaks of the Blue Ridge and Smoky Mountains.  As always, we will be keeping an eye on this!

The other factor is the bitterly cold air moving in Thursday night.  Flurries should be tapering off and temperatures should drop to the low 20s valley and upper 10s mountains.  The Wind Chill could dip as low as the single digits and low 10s by Friday morning.  Friday should be sunny and windy.  Afternoon highs only near 32 (20s mountains) and lows Friday night back in the low 20s (10s north and mountains).

ENJOY SATURDAY'S SUN

After a frigid start Saturday, expect a lot of sunshine!  It should be a seasonal January afternoon with highs in the mid/upper 40s.  Enjoy this break, because even cold air moves in for early next week.  You might want to spend some time making sure your home is winterized for the next blast of arctic air!

HERE WE GO AGAIN SUNDAY!

Another cold front approaches the Tennessee Valley Sunday.  This could produce some light showers again Sunday afternoon and evening.  And, like the front on Thursday, this could also end as a period of light snow showers/flurries as the arctic blast of air arrives.  Again, any accumulation looks light and limited to higher elevations.  The BIG STORY is the CHILL! 

ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES AGAIN MONDAY

An even colder round of arctic air arrives Monday!  Daily highs should only be in the mid/upper 30s (near 32 mountains).  Again, the Wind Chill will make it feel even colder.  Once temperatures drop below freezing Monday, it may not move back above freezing until Wednesday!  Low temperatures by Tuesday should dip into the mid/upper 10s (low 10s north and mountains).  Highs Tuesday only NEAR 30 (20s mountains).  Then low/mid 10s Wednesday morning (single digits in spots north and mountains).

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




A Dry End To A Wet 2013!

12/30/13

Over 68 inches of rainfall was recorded at Lovell Field in Chattanooga for 2013.  That is over 16" above average.  But, as wet as the year was, the last day of 2013 should be dry.

SEASONAL END TO 2013

Sunshine should return for Tuesday with seasonal afternoon temperatures in the upper 40s (mid 40s mountains) after morning lows near 30.  As we ring in the new year late Tuesday night, expect temperatures in the 30s at midnight and then dropping to the upper 20s by Wednesday morning.

2014 STARTS DRY AT LEAST FOR A DAY

New Year's Day should also be dry after the cold start in the upper 20s.  Expect a sunny, then partly sunny sky with an afternoon high in the lower 50s (still only 40s on local mountain tops).  More clouds begin to stream in late into Wednesday evening and through Thursday morning in advance of a developing storm system that is moving our way.

MOISTURE RETURNS THURSDAY

A tricky looking system should move through the Tennessee Valley Thursday, then develop into possibly a stronger system up the East Coast.  As it passes us during its' development phase, it could result in some light showers across the area.  But, model data is not in consensus with the timing are moisture amounts.

For example, the European Model is slower, warmer and wetter with some rain by late day Thursday and into Thursday night with rain amounts above 1/2 inch.  The NAM model is colder, faster and drier with any rainfall very light.  The GFS model is right in between with some light showers Thursday morning and afternoon then ending as some flurries or snow showers.  So, it's a system that we will be keeping an eye on for the chance of rain that could end as some snow showers Thursday and Thursday night.  "If" any snow developments, any accumulation amounts still look light and mainly higher elevations (like a typical "wrap around" snow shower event).

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

WINDY AND COLDER FRIDAY

A cold, blustery day can be expected Friday as skies clear.  But, even with some January sunshine afternoon temperatures could only reach the upper 30s.  A brisk north wind could keep wind chills in the 20s throughout the day.  By late Friday night, expect temperatures to dip to near 20 and even some 10s in spots.

MUCH COLDER AHEAD?

Again, long range models vary a bit, but at least one model (European ECMWF) really tries to put the Southeast in the deep freeze toward the weekend of the 4th-5th.  The GFS model plots the possibility of our local temperatures staying below freezing even for high temperatures.  The European Model goes a step further with lows in the low teens and single digits possible.  So, which model is correct?  Only time will tell!  Let's just check back with the model data in the days ahead and see if there is any consistency!

David Glenn




Weather Thoughts From Bill Race On Friday Morning

12/27/13

Another pleasant afternoon for today with highs in the mid 50s.  Clouds will start to increase on Saturday morning.  I still expect rain to be likely from 7 pm Saturday to 11 am Sunday.  An inch of rain looks very possible. 

Some colder air on Monday will bring some flurries or even a few snow showers.  But no accumulations expected.  Another weather system will move in on Thursday and Friday of next week.  Rain seems to be the most likely result.  But we need to watch for the chance for any wintry precipitation at that time.

Bill Race

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Weather Thoughts From Bill Race On Friday Morning


The Christmas 1983 Arctic Outbreak

12/24/13

Colder temperatures have returned for Christmas 2013, but it's nothing like the Arctic blast of 1983!  The record low of -2 on Christmas Day 1983 still holds today.

 

THE ARCTIC OPENED UP ON CHRISTMAS EVE

 

Temperatures on Christmas Eve in 1983 steadily dropped throughout the day as the arctic air arrived. Check out these observations from Lovell Field.  At 12:01AM December 24th,1983 the high temperature for the day occurred with 24 degrees.  Again, that was the HIGH of the day!

 

By 8am, the temperatures dropped to 11 degrees.  But, that was still not the low temperature of the day.  By 4pm, the late afternoon temperature was only 7 degrees!!!!  Can you imagine an afternoon here in the Tennessee Valley with temperatures in the single digits during the afternoon?

 

Before I go on with the even colder temperatures that followed.  Let me share with you what I was doing that bitterly cold afternoon.  I was 16 years old and working at my Dads Ace Hardware in Chickamauga.  We were scheduled to only be open through 4pm.  However, due to the extremely cold temperatures we stayed open longer due to the high demand for kerosene and kerosene heaters. And, a lot of plumbing parts due to burst pipes.

 

I stayed at that kerosene pump for what felt like hours.  We never ran out, but the last customer left just before 7pm.  I had the thickest pair of coveralls on, but was still frozen. 

 

Speaking of 7pm that evening, the temperature continued to fall.  Just before midnight (as Santa began his flight!), the temperature was 2 degrees.

 

CHRISTMAS DAY RECORD LOW

 

By sunrise on Christmas Day, the temperature was -2.  That still holds as the record low!  The day was sunny, but temperatures remained bitterly cold. By noon, the temperature was only 6 degrees.  The high temperature ended up being only 16 degrees.

 

It was nice staying inside in a cozy house that day.  But, around 8pm we received a phone call.  The alarm system had been triggered at my Dads other Ace Hardware in Ft Oglethorpe.  It wasnt a burglary or fire.  Instead, a frozen pipe burst inside the building.  The water was ankle deep spread out over half the building near the front door.

 

My Dad and I plus other members of the Ft Oglethorpe Fire Dept, spent most of that evening with big Squeeges pushing the water out the front doubledoors.  Oh, and then spreading salt afterward because of all the ice near the front door. 

 

I'm sure many of you have your own memories of that arctic blast!

 

WHEN WAS THE WARMEST CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY?

 

Even with a record high a few days ago, we have still been warmer than that and right on Christmas Eve and Day. The record high for Christmas Eve 1964 was 75 degrees.  That temperature was equaled on Christmas Day 1955 with a high of 75. And, like the arctic blast of Christmas 1983, those records have yet to be touched! 

 

David Glenn




Running Updates For Tonight On The Blog

12/21/13

12:06 AM ET Sunday:  Severe Thunderstorm Watch for most of the rest of our area until 6am ET.

10:07 PM ET:  Tornado Watch until 3 AM ET for Grundy and Van Buren Counties in Tennessee and for Jackson and DeKalb Counties in Alabama. 

The storm chances continue to be high for our area late tonight and Sunday morning.  My thought is that we are looking at a time frame from around 2 am ET to around 9 am ET on Sunday.  From West to East across our area.  Bill Race




Moderate Risk For Severe Storms Just To Our West

12/21/13

We continue to track the threat for severe weather tonight into Sunday morning.  Here is the latest plot from the Severe Storms Forecast Center.  The current timing puts our area into the strongest showers and storms after midnight tonight into Sunday morning. Bill Race.

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Moderate Risk For Severe Storms Just To Our West


A Warm Weekend & Stormy Early Sunday

12/20/13

Unseasonably warm temperatures can be expected as Winter begins Saturday.  There is the potential for some strong thunderstorms locally early Sunday morning.  Then, colder air returns for Christmas Eve & Day.

NEAR 70 FOR THE WINTER SOLSTICE!

Winter officially begins at 12:11pmET Saturday.  But, it won't feel like it!  A cloudy, warm and breezy day is expected with temperatures on average reaching the upper 60s and even above 70 in spots.  The warm southerly breezes are in advance of a strong storm system that eventually could bring some strong storms late Saturday night and early Sunday morning.

Scattered showers will be possible Saturday, but not an all day rain.  The coverage of showers does increase more later in the afternoon and into the evening.  The threat of any severe weather locally is very low on Saturday.

STORMY EARLY SUNDAY

As discussed on the air and on this blog, there is the potential for strong thunderstorms to move through the viewing area early Sunday morning.  The Storm Prediction Center indicated the greater risk of severe storms to our west over West Tennessee, North Mississippi & Alabama.  This is because the main low pressure system will pass by closer to these areas as the low races off to the northeast.

So, by the time a line of storms approaches our part of the Tennessee Valley, a gradual weakening trend could occur.  But, even with that weakening compared to areas west, some of the storms locally will have to be closely monitored.  There could still be the potential for damaging wind gusts and heavy rain locally.  Based on the latest model data, timing of this possible line of storms could be anywhere between 4amET - 10amET.  The risk for tornadoes looks low, but as always systems like this have to be closely monitored.  And you can depend on us for updates through the weekend!

STAY INFORMED!

You can always depend on the StormTrack 9 Team to keep you updated!  Should there be any local Watches or Warnings, you will see a map display on Newschannel 9 programming. 

Download the FREE StormTrack 9 App available for iOS and Android devices (Search: WTVC WX in Google Play & App Store).  The App features an interactive radar with storm tracking.  You can received instant weather alerts and the full 10 day forecast.

If you have a NOAA weather alert radio, please make sure that your radio is in "alert" mode and turned "on".  Therefore should there be a Watch or Warning issued while you are sleeping, the alert signal will awaken you.  Follow the link below for the proper county S.A.M.E. code for your radio.

Complete List of S.A.M.E. Code for NOAA weather alert radios

DRIER & COLDER DAYS AHEAD

After the unseasonable warmth to begin Winter, reality settles in starting Monday as a seasonal chill returns.  Monday should be dry along with falling temperatures during the afternoon.  High temperatures should struggle to reach 50.  The brisk north wind should help drop temperatures to the 30s by early evening.

Christmas Eve looks sunny and cold!  A morning low in the mid/upper 20s, then sunny and only mid 40s by the afternoon.  Christmas Day should also be chilly with a mix of sun and clouds.  Expect a cold morning in the mid 20s, then mid/upper 40s through the afternoon.

David Glenn




Warmer, Then Wetter During The Weekend

12/18/13

A warming trend continues for Thursday and Friday.  Eventually, the chance for rain increases locally especially late Saturday night and into Sunday.

A WARM WINTER SOLSTICE

Winter officially begins Saturday at 12:11pmET!  It will not feel like it as temperatures around that time Saturday could be near 60!

WARMER LAST MINUTE SHOPPING DAYS

Afternoons should continue to warm up for Thursday and Friday.  Mornings will still be chilly in the 30s each day.  But, by the afternoon hours temperatures should warm into the upper 50s Thursday afternoon (low/mid 50s local mountains), and even near 60 in some spots south.  Friday's temperatures should be about the same with highs near 60, but with more cloud cover.  Just a slight chance for a passing shower Friday.

So, some nice weather conditions for December on these last few shopping days before Christmas!

WETTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY

As a storm system to our west gathers strength, the Tennessee Valley should continue to be warmer through the weekend with mid 60s Saturday and even mid/upper 60s Sunday.  Due to the slow movement of the system, it does not appear that it will be as wet for Saturday.  While some scattered showers are possible Saturday, it does not appear to be an all day rain.  Most areas locally will be cloudy with 60s and just some hit and miss scattered showers.

The better rain chance locally should be later Saturday night and into Sunday.  There are some timing differences between forecast model data.  For example, the GFS model is faster with the bulk of heavy rain and storms during the morning while the European model (ECMWF) is favoring more of a late day event.  Either way, Sunday looks wet.  Some periods of heavy rain will be possible.  And, some thunderstorms as well.  We will continue to monitor for any severe threat.  A few storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts along with the heavy rain threat.

Projected rainfall amounts range from around 0.80" by the European Model and 1.35"-1.50" by the GFS.  The bulk of the rainfall from each model occurring Sunday.

DRIER & MORE SEASONAL STARTING MONDAY

Any remaining rain showers should quickly end through the early morning hours of Monday (mostly predawn).  The rest of Monday should be drier by much cooler than the weekend.  It should also be breezy with a brisk northwest wind at 15mph and gusty ushering in the colder air.  Temperatures by afternoon should only average around 50 with a low that morning in the 40s.  The breeze throughout the day should make it feel a bit colder.

SEASONAL FOR CHRISTMAS EVE & DAY

The longer range projections still favor seasonal temperatures for late December just in time for Christmas Eve & Day.  Sunshine on Tuesday (Christmas Eve) with a morning low in the upper 20s and an afternoon high in the mid/upper 40s.  Christmas Day (Wednesday) should have a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the upper 40s to near 50 after a morning low in the upper 20s to near 30.  Local normal temperatures for Christmas Day are 51/33.  So, that's right on target for a typical Christmas Day in the Tennessee Valley.

David Glenn




A Warming Trend This Week and Possible Heavy Rain & Storms By The Weekend

12/16/13

A WARMING TREND & HEAVY RAIN BEFORE WE GET TO CHRISTMAS

 

After a chilly end to the weekend, afternoon temperaturesshould continue warming each day through the workweek.  Temperatures by late week could be inthe 60s and possibly near 70.  Rainchances should increase by late week with a possibility of heavy rain over theweekend and even some severe storms

 

HUGE WARM UP THIS WEEK

 

My annual Winter Outlook discussed a trend for the winterseason that could be varying swings in temperature from very cold to verywarm.  Well, so far we have seenthat trend once already this month and possibly again this week and into nextweek.

 

After a cold start Monday morning in the 20s, afternoontemperatures should be near 50 with sunshine by the afternoon.  This trend continues through midweekwith daily temperatures in the mid/upper 50s through Wednesday with sunshineand morning lows around the freezing mark.

 

Even warmer Thursday and Friday along with increasing cloudcover.  Upper 50s to near 60Thursday, then low 60s on Friday with a few late afternoon and evening showers.

 

POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS BY THE WEEKEND

 

As I have stated many times, thunderstorms can occur duringany month of the year here in the Tennessee Valley.  Thats just part of living in the Southeastern US.  I say this because some strongthunderstorms are possible late Saturday and into Sunday (timing could changein the days ahead based on daily forecast model trends). 

 

The first system to move through should continue the warmtemperatures with upper 60s to even near 70 Saturday and a good chance forrain.  Heavy rain is possible aswell.

 

A second surge of heavy rain and storms could arrive onSunday in advance of a possible stronger Gulf low pressure system.  This could mean the possibility of somestrong thunderstorms in a squall line as that system moves through locally.

 

As I mentioned above, we will be keeping an eye on theforecast model trends in the days ahead. You can depend on us for updates!

 

SEASONAL TEMPS BY CHRISTMAS?

 

After the huge warm up this week, I am sure that a lot offolks will be wondering if we will cool down before Christmas Eve and ChristmasDay.  Long range forecast models dosuggest that the warm temperatures could move out by then.  After several days of well above normaltemperatures through Monday it does appear that by Christmas Eve Tuesday, hightemperatures could dip back to the upper 40s to lower 50s.  Morning lows by Christmas could rangein the mid/upper 30s with a high temperature that day near 50.  Even colder air could follow in thedays following Christmas.

 

So, that up and down pattern discussed in the Winter Outlooklooks to continue through late month.

 

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

 

David Glenn




A Seasonal Chill For A Few Days

12/11/13

After a warm start to December, more seasonal air has moved in and this chill should stick around for a few days.

A LITTLE COLDER THURSDAY

A weak cold front should pass through the Tennessee Valley during the early morning hours Thursday.  A few clouds, but no rain as this is a dry system.  But, it should usher in some slightly colder air into the local region.  Wake up temperatures should be in the mid 20s and only rise to the low 40s by the afternoon (mountain locations staying in the 30s).  Skies should be partly to mostly sunny.

Very cold again Thursday night with low/mid 20s.

DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY

After the cold start again Friday, skies should be sunny early followed by a rapid increase in cloud cover.  Afternoon high temperatures should reach the upper 40s and possibly near 50 in spots to the south.

RAIN RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT & SATURDAY

The approaching cloud cover is in advance of a storm system that should bring yet another round of rain to the Tennessee Valley beginning late Friday night.  For most of our local viewing area, it should be a cold rain developing late in the night.  But, along the northern Cumberland Plateau (Crossville as an example), the rain could begin as a brief wintry mix before changing over to rain.  Temperatures Friday night should stay well above freezing for most in the upper 30s, but low 30s briefly along the plateau.

Saturday looks wet as periods of rain continue throughout the day.  It will be a chilly day as well with high temperatures only reaching the upper 40s.  The rain could begin to taper off during the evening hours, but a few model projections keep the rain around until after midnight Saturday night.  As colder air moves in, any leftover moisture early Sunday morning could result in some flurries at higher elevations, but not problems expected from this.

Rainfall amounts from forecast model data project amounts locally between 0.80" to 1.25" from late Friday night through Saturday.

DRIER & MILDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

Sunday should be drier after the morning hours.  Breezy though with high temperatures remaining in the 40s.  A nice stretch of dry conditions should stick around for Monday through Wednesday.  Sun each day with daily highs rising each day through the 50s and morning lows near the freezing mark.  The next round of rain could hold off until late next wee.

So, after the weekend, some nice shopping weather!

David Glenn




Colder & Drier Saturday.....Wetter Sunday

12/06/13

Colder air gradually moves in Saturday and briefly dries us out.  But, more rain moves back in Sunday and continues through Tuesday morning.

DRIER & COLDER SATURDAY.

A breezy and colder day can be expected Saturday.  But, as we have been expecting, we should be drier.  Morning temperatures should be in the mid/upper 30s and afternoon highs only in the mid/upper 40s.  A brisk north wind at 10-20mph & gusty will make it feel colder.

RAIN RETURNS SUNDAY

The rain could actually move in very late Saturday night!  There is a slight chance that the rain could begin as a brief mix along the northern & central Cumberland Plateau.  But, that should not last long as the warm, moist air continues to surge northward through Sunday.

Off and on periods of rain can be expected throughout the day Sunday.  Afternoon temperatures holding steady in the 40s.  Rain continues Sunday night as temperatures hold steady in the mid/upper 40s.

STILL WET MONDAY

Periods of rain should continue for Monday.  Overall rainfall amounts from Sunday through Monday night could average between 1.50" to 3.00" locally.  We will need to keep an eye on some flooding issues.  Temperatures on Monday should reach around 50 early, then drop into the 40s by late day

Rain continues Monday night, but slowly tapers off between sunrise Tuesday and midday.  Colder air will be attempting to move in as well.  And, that could cause the rain to end as a "mix" in spots before ending Tuesday morning.  Temperatures should chill to the mid 30s by Tuesday morning.  As always, you can depend on us to keep an eye on this!

Cloudy, breezy and chilly Tuesday with afternoon temperatures only reaching the 40s.

FINALLY SOME SUN WEDNESDAY!

After a prolonged wet pattern, the Tennessee Valley should finally dry out by midweek.  Sunny Wednesday, but cold that morning with mid 20s possible, then upper 40s by afternoon.  More sun Thursday along with seasonal temps!  The next chance for rain could occur by late Friday and into next weekend.

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Warm Weather Is Temporary As Colder Air Retuns Soon!

12/04/13

The unseasonably warm temperatures should stick around through Thursday.  If you want colder temperatures, be patient, it's coming!

70S POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY

A cloudy, unseasonably warm day again Thursday under a cloudy sky.  Some dense fog early, then cloudy with afternoon temperatures from the upper 60s to lower 70s.  Some scattered showers are possible Thursday, though not an all day washout.  Mainly just scattered most of the day with the better coverage of showers Thursday night. 

As the coverage of showers increases for Thursday night, there could be some thundershowers as well.  The risk of severe storms remains low and we will continue to keep an eye on this!

WET & COOLER FRIDAY

Off and on periods of rain throughout Friday and gradually cooler.  Temperatures should hold in the 50s throughout the day and begin cooling more by late day.  Rainfall amounts ranging from 0.60"-1.00" through Friday night.

The rain should begin tapering off late Friday night and a little colder.  Expect overnight temperatures to chill to near 40 by sunrise Saturday.

CHILLY, BUT A BREAK IN THE RAIN SATURDAY

Saturday looks cloudy and chilly with temperatures only reaching the mid/upper 40s for highs.  The rain chance remains low during the day.  Hopefully that trend will hold, and we will be watching this carefully!  The coverage of rain increases Saturday night and into Sunday.

HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY

Yet another round of rain should move into the Tennessee Valley late Saturday night and continue through Sunday before ending Monday afternoon.  With a southerly wind flow, temperatures should move back into the 50s Sunday afternoon and hold steady in the upper 40s with rain Sunday night.  A wet start to Monday, then ending by afternoon.  Rainfall totals from forecast guidance models suggest totals between 1" to 1.50" possible locally.

Temperatures on Monday should begin near 50, the chill to near 40 by late day as colder air rushes in.

WINTRY TEMPS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT

Colder than average temperatures should return Monday night as temperatures dip to between the upper 20s & lower 30s.  Some flurries possible at higher elevations, but only very little moisture Monday night, so no problems expected.

Tuesday looks breezy and cold with highs only in the upper 30s (wind chill in the 20s!).  Low/mid 20s Tuesday night, then sunny and only low 40s for highs on Wednesday.

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Warmer & Wetter.......Then Colder!

12/02/13

A warmer and gradually wetter pattern sets up for the Tennessee Valley through the work week.  By the weekend, colder air returns along with another chance for rain.

LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A cloudy sky for the most part through Wednesday.  From time to time, areas of drizzle and patchy light rain showers can be expected.  Rainfall amounts should remain light overall locally.  A southerly wind should keep temperatures moving upward with afternoon highs nearing 60 (50s mountains) Tuesday and the low/mid 60s Wednesday.  Likewise, morning lows not as cold as it has been with only mid 40s Tuesday morning and near 50 Wednesday morning.

WARMER & WETTER THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY

An even wetter pattern evolves as a strong cold front approaches the Tennessee Valley.  Rain chances should gradually increase during the day Thursday and especially Thursday night and Friday.  There could be some pockets of heavy rain as some models project rainfall amounts varying from 1" to 1.50" locally.  Some thundershowers are also possible as well due to the warming taking place on Thursday.

Thursday afternoons temperatures should reach the mid/upper 60s locally and still around 60 Friday with the better chance for rain.

COLDER INTO THE WEEK WITH A RETURN RAIN CHANCE

Periods of rain could continue into early Saturday as the cold front moves by.  We could then get a temporary break in the rain Saturday as colder and drier air moves in.  Parts of the northern Cumberland Plateau could have the rain end as a wintry mix as colder air moves in before the moisture exits.  The wintry mix chances for the rest of the local viewing area remain low.

High temperatures on Saturday should stay in the 40s as a northwesterly wind kicks in.  We will need to watch for a return chance for precipitation Saturday night and Sunday.  Computer model projections don't tend to handle shallow cold air very well.  So, we will need to keep an eye on Sunday morning temperatures which could allow for a "mix" in spots before transitioning to mainly a cold rain the rest of Sunday with highs again in the 40s.  The rain could again end as a mix over higher elevations briefly before ending Monday morning.

For now, wintry precipitation chances locally remain low.  However, we will need to continue watching forecast model trends.  Again, as I mention every year around this time, I do not blog about every change in computer forecast models.  Yes, I watch the model trends with every run, but I am watching for consistency and will blog my thoughts when necessary.  Right now based on model trends, the better wintry weather chances look to be from Nashville northward (and parts of the northern Cumberland Plateau) along with areas west toward Arkansas and Kentucky. 

You can depend on us for updates!

David




2013-2014 StormTrack 9 Winter Outlook

11/25/13

Click Here for the Video Version of the Winter Outlook

This is one of my favorite forecasts to give each and everyyear!  I am very proud to continue anover 30 year Newschannel 9 tradition with the annual StormTrack 9 WinterOutlook.

PUTTING THE PIECES TOGETHER

I always remember the advice of one of my college professorswhen studying climatology.  He advised,"Look to the past, to learn about the future".  I have never forgotten that and it forms thebasis of how I put together a seasonal outlook.   Seasonal outlooks are still quite difficultto do and we learn more as each year goes by.  Even looking to the past will not tell youexactly what a season will be like, it can provide at least an outlook.  So, we have to look at what is happeningcurrently around the globe.  Let's startwith Sea Surface Temperatures (SST).  Thecurrent look has a warm Atlantic (Atlantic Multidecadel Oscillation/AMO),Cooler central Pacific (Pacific Decadel Oscillation/PDO),  and warm Gulf of Alaska.  Looking back at past patterns over the US andTennessee Valley during similar set ups to winter yields a bit of a back andforth pattern.  Some winters were mild, whilea slightly greater number were cooler.

We also need to look at one other factor and that is thestatus of the El Nino.  Currently, theequatorial waters around South America are in a neutral phase.  Really, it's kind of a cool neutral phase.  The long range projections into Springsuggest that a warming could occur in this region to a "warm" neutralphase or a weak El Nino.  Strong ElNino's can mean storm times ahead locally with an active southern jetstream.  We've had a lot of wet winterswith that flow.  But, a WEAK El Nino orwarm neutral doesn't quite lead to such an active southern jet stream.  Instead, historic patterns suggest more of acolder pattern in the US East & Southeast with a more active northern jet.

Those are the large scale, long range patterns.  In the shorter range (2-3 weeks) we have tokeep an eye on the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation (NAO &AO).  These fluctuations can help projectwhen sharp colder periods locally will be possible.  Unfortunately there is no way to project fora whole season what these oscillations will do, but keeping track of the weeklypatterns can help you see how a weekly or monthly pattern will go.  As an example, the mid/late November NAO/AOwent negative which in turn projected the cold snaps we have had in lateNovember.  However, the NAO/AO patterninto early December goes positive suggesting some normal to above normaltemperatures for a while during December.

I did also factor in some local folklore!  A large number of the wooly worms were asolid color with an absence of banding features.  Folklore suggests a cold winter.  Also, I counted the August dense fogs.  We had 3. Folklore would suggest 3 decent  snowfalls.  Though these are the more popular folklorefactors, but they dont always pan out!  But,its fun to factor these in and its the most popular question people ask as wedraw closer to winter!

 

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

Just looking at the factors above along with historicpatterns suggests a winter that can be best described as a "back andforth" pattern.  While unlike thepast few winters that had long stretches of warm or cold, this winter couldhave more of a normal pattern for us with mild periods offset by coldperiods.  The weak El Nino/warm neutralcould also mean that some of those cold periods could be really cold with somearctic air.  If that occurs then the endresult average temperature locally could be near to slightly below normal.  And, that is where I stand on the winteroutlook for our temperatures.

 

WHAT ABOUT SNOWFALL?

My favorite subject of any year is snow!  Yes, I love snow!  But, growing up here in the Tennessee ValleyI share your frustration with how infrequently we get any, but also what it isso exciting when we do.  Projectingseasonal snowfall is such a wild category any way because we only average4.8" a year.  So, just one snowevent can make or break a seasonal forecast. But, just looking at past seasons based on the patterns above, I do likeour chances this year of some local snowfall. Past patterns have seen our local area be near normal and a few justslightly above normal.  You have toremember that no two winter's are exactly alike.  But, based on those past patterns I'll putour snow chances locally at normal to just slightly above normal.

Me personally, I would like to see the above normal.  Yes, it means longer work days and bigheadaches forecasting.....but it sure is fun! And I love the challenge!

 

CLOSING THOUGHTS

Even after looking at past patterns, you have to realizethat no two winter's are exactly alike. So, seasonal outlooks are just that...an outlook.  I have said this many times that the weatheris going to do what it wants to do!

Through winter we will keep you updated on the shorter termtrends of the NAO and AO.  And, ourwinter weather does not end in late February. Our outlook focuses on the trends through mid March.

As always, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team to keepyou updated on whatever the winter throws our way!

David Glenn







A Windy & Colder Weekend

11/22/13

As we have been expecting and discussing, much colder air is on the way for the weekend!

WINDY SATURDAY

Cloudy and damp to begin Saturday with some remaining pockets of light rain.  That should end through the morning hours from west to east.  The rest of the day should be windy and colder through the afternoon.  An increasing northerly wind at 15-25mph and gusty should drop temperatures into the 40s through the afternoon hours.  Skies should clear for Saturday night.  Remaining windy at times through Saturday night as temperatures fall into the mid 20s.

SUNNY, BUT COLD SUNDAY

Sunshine for most of Sunday, but it won't help warm things up!  Still breezy with morning temps in the mid 20s and afternoon highs only near 40 (30s mountains).  The wind should relax by late day.  By Sunday night, temperatures should drop into the low/mid 20s.

CHILL CONTINUES, ALONG WITH SOME RAIN

Clouds should begin to move back in Monday as temperatures remain unseasonably cold.  Expect afternoon highs only in the mid 40s.  Cloudy for Monday night with temperatures falling back to near 32. 

A strengthening Gulf system begins to move in early Tuesday.  This could send some light precipitation our way during the early morning hours.  With temperatures still near freezing it will be possible that a light rain/sleet mix could occur(especially higher elevations).  We will be closely monitoring this chance of wintry precipitation.  Eventually, this should become mainly a cold rain as temperatures slowly rise through the upper 30s and into the lower 40s Tuesday afternoon.  A cold rain continues Tuesday night with lows in the upper 30s.  Depending upon the final evolution of this system either offshore along the Mid-Atlantic or inland over the central Appalachians, the precipitation should wind down locally Wednesday morning.  As colder air rushes in on the back side of the system, there could again be a period of a brief mix Wednesday morning as the precip ends. 

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

A SUNNY & COLD THANKSGIVING

After all of this ugly cold and wet weather, dry conditions should return for Thanksgiving Day.  Skies should be sunny, but it should still be unseasonably cold with highs only in the upper 40s with morning lows in the upper 20s.

The big shopping day Friday also looks nice with a sunny to partly sunny sky and early morning temperatures near 30, followed by low 50s during the afternoon.

WINTER OUTLOOK COMING UP MONDAY AT 6PM!!!!

A Newschannel 9 tradition for 30 years continues on Monday at 6pm with the StormTrack 9 Annual Winter Outlook!

David




Milder Through Friday, Then "Winter" Settles In For A While

11/20/13

A brief warming trend through Friday should give way to a blast of cold air over the weekend.  The days leading up to Thanksgiving could still be quite cold and wet.

WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY

Clouds should continue to move in on Thursday.  A southeast wind flow should allow temperatures by the afternoon to reach the low 60s (50s mountains).  The southeast wind and clouds continue Thursday night with temperatures only dropping to the mid/upper 40s.  Friday could be even warmer even with the cloud cover.  Afternoon temperatures should reach the mid 60s.  Some passing showers will be possible Friday, but the better coverage arrives Friday night.

BETTER RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

The upcoming rain chances does not appear to be heavy or severe.  Rainfall chances should increase through the night and continue through early Saturday morning.  Forecast model rainfall projections locally remain light with most averaging under 0.20", but the European model goes slightly higher at around 0.40".  Most of the rain should quickly taper off through Saturday morning.

WINDY AND COLDER WEEKEND

As we have discussed on earlier blog posts and on-air, the weekend still looks windy and much colder with January-like temperatures.  The wind should pick up from the north-northwest Saturday afternoon dropping temperatures from the 50s to the upper 40s by late afternoon.  Skies should clear Saturday night as temperatures plummet into the mid/upper 20s.  Sunday should be sunny, but cold with afternoon highs only in the mid 40s and a brisk north wind making it feel even colder.  Low temperatures Sunday night should again dip into the mid 20s.

WINTRY START TO THE THANKSGIVING WEEK

The "Wintry"..."January-like" temperatures should continue through Wednesday.  And, some Gulf moisture moving in could make things interesting at times.  Monday looks dry, but with increasing clouds.  Afternoon highs still staying in the 40s.  Morning lows by Tuesday should dip into the low/mid 30s.  "If" moisture moves in early enough, precipitation could begin as a wintry mix (especially higher elevations) then changing to mainly a cold rain through the day Tuesday as temperatures stay in the mid 40s.  Wednesday again looks wet and cold with 40s for highs.  But, colder air moves back in as the precipitation exits which means that there could be some periods of a wintry mix again on Wednesday before the precipitation ends.

A lot of uncertainty with the timing of precipitation, but we will continue to watch this! 

THANKSGIVING LOOKS DRY, BUT COLD

And that title basically sums it up.  After some ugly, cold & wet weather Tuesday and Wednesday, Thanksgiving day should be sunny to partly sunny.  However, it looks unseasonably cold with highs in the upper 40s  with morning temperatures below freezing.

Just a reminder....The StormTrack 9 Annual Winter Forecast is coming up Monday at 6pm on Newschannel 9!

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Colder Second Half Of November

11/18/13

November 2013 has already been a cooler than average month locally, and the second half of the month should continue that trend.

BREEZY & COOLER TUESDAY

After a warm day on Monday with temperatures hovering around 70, much cooler air rushes in for Tuesday.  Expect sunshine and breezy conditions throughout the day.  Afternoon highs should be held down to the low/mid 50s (some upper 40s mountains).  A brisk north-northeast wind at 10-20mph should make it feel even cooler.

Low temperatures Tuesday night should dip back to the low 30s (some local spots below 32).  Wednesday looks sunny and not as breezy with afternoon temperatures in the mid/upper 50s.

LATE WEEK SHOWERS

A slow warming trend should continue Thursday and Friday along with more cloud cover.  Upper 50s to near 60 possible Thursday, then low/mid 60s Friday.  Scattered showers should begin to creep back in late Friday and into Friday night.  The off and on periods of showers could continue through Saturday.  Saturday's high temperatures should ease back to the 50s as the wind shifts to the north.

Early rainfall projections show the potential for 0.60"-0.80" possible locally.  We will continue to keep you updated on those projections.  Lovell Field has only received 2.73" so far this month which is 1.73" below average.

ANOTHER COLD BLAST

Another shot of very cold air could move in late in the weekend.  A cold front should sweep through Saturday night ending the rain chance.  But, much colder air rushes in behind the front.  Afternoon temperatures should stay in the 40s and a brisk north wind should make it feel even colder.  Temperatures Sunday night could tumble as low as the low/mid 20s.  Monday looks dry but unseasonably cold with highs again only in the 40s.

STILL COLD NEXT WEEK & SOME PRECIPITATION

 A look at the Thanksgiving week still indicates temperatures could stay below average locally.  A cold period with rain is possible Tuesday and Wednesday (26th & 27th).  If the rain moves in early enough on Tuesday, the precipitation could begin as a brief "mix", before mainly a cold rain for the afternoon.  Temperatures could remain below average by Thanksgiving Day and into the following weekend to end the month.

David Glenn




Warmer Weekend Temps....Some Storms Possible Sunday

11/15/13

Warmer temperatures can be expected for the weekend.  But, shower and storm chances increase through the day Sunday along with the chance for strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon and night.

CLOUDY & WARMER SATURDAY

Some fog is possible Saturday morning, then the clouds should linger into the afternoon.  A few peeks of sun possible as a southerly wind increases during the afternoon.  Be aware that some drizzle is possible within the fog later early in the morning.  Otherwise, rain chances Saturday remain very low.  With the increasing southerly flow, temperatures should reach the mid/upper 60s through the afternoon.  The breeze from the south-southeast at 10-15mph.

Quite mild Saturday night with a cloudy sky and overnight temperatures only dropping to the mid 50s.  A few showers possible late in the night and toward Sunday morning.

WARM AGAIN SUNDAY AS SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE

A developing storm system to our west begins to move our way Sunday.  Skies should remain cloudy Sunday, but temperatures still quite warm in the upper 60s through the afternoon.  Expect a gradual increase in shower activity through the day with the best coverage during the afternoon and evening.  Some thunderstorms are possible in advance of the main cold front through Sunday night.  And, a few storms could become strong to severe.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed a large part of our viewing area and points west under the "Slight Risk" category for the chance of strong to severe t-storms through Sunday night. 

As always, you can depend on us for updates through the weekend as we monitor the progress of this system.

COOLER & DRIER NEXT WEEK

Any showers and storms will have ended prior to sunrise Monday.  So, the upcoming work week should get off to a dry, but cooler start.  Afternoon temperatures should still reach near 60 as sunshine returns.  Breezy and even cooler conditions return for Tuesday.  Again, Tuesday should be sunny, but afternoon temperatures only in the low/mid 50s and feeling cooler due to the brisk northwest breeze.  Morning lows should dip back to the low/mid 30s.

A cool and dry pattern should continue through most of the week.  By Friday, more clouds could move back in along with the chance for some late day showers.  Looking further ahead, a better chance for showers is possible by next weekend.

David Glenn




Clouds Return Friday Along With A Little Rain

11/14/13

Clouds should stream back in for Friday.  Some patchy areas of light rain and sprinkles possible.  But, it's all part of a warming trend setting up for the weekend.

CLOUDY & COOL FRIDAY

You will notice the difference between "Sunny & 50s" and "Cloudy & 50s".  The latter of which feels much cooler and that should be the case Friday.  Morning temperatures should be in the mid 30s, then only reach the low/mid 50s through the afternoon as skies remain cloudy.

Some patchy areas of sprinkles or light rain possible at times Friday and Friday night, but mainly on a scattered basis.  Otherwise, just cloudy.  Forecast model data still shows only light amounts with the GFS and NAM models indicating only 0.10" or less through Friday night.

CLOUDY, BUT MUCH WARMER SATURDAY

Even though the clouds should linger Saturday, a stronger southerly flow should help boost temperatures into the mid/upper 60s by afternoon.  There should be some peeks of sun as well, but any rain chance remains small.  So, a good day for outdoor activities.  Overnight low temperatures Saturday night should only drop to the low 50s as the clouds and southerly wind help keep temperatures milder.

CLOUDY & WARM SUNDAY AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE

More cloud cover for Sunday, but even warmer with upper 60s possible by afternoon.  A few spots could reach near 70.  A slow, gradual increase in shower activity with the best coverage locally later into the afternoon and especially Sunday night.  Rain chances should continue through Monday morning before ending and becoming drier Monday afternoon.

Rainfall amounts from forecast models have backed off a bit from the heavier totals projected earlier this week.  The "average" amount is between 0.50" to 1" because of the speed of the system moving through.  We will continue to keep you update on the rainfall amount projections

The threat of severe weather locally looks very low.  The better chances should be to our west and north over west Tennessee and into the Ohio Valley.

MUCH COOLER AGAIN TUESDAY

Unseasonably cool air moves back in by Tuesday.  While not quite as cold as this last cold blast, high temperatures could struggle to get above 50 on Tuesday and Wednesday with morning lows in the low 30s.

David Glenn




Milder Afternoons Ahead, Then Wetter By Late Weekend

11/13/13

Milder afternoon temperatures can be expected starting Thursday and continuing into the weekend.  Rain chances begin to increase, especially by Sunday afternoon and evening.

WELCOME BACK 50S & 60S!

After an early visit from winter temperatures, milder air begins to move back in to the Tennessee Valley.  A sunny to partly sunny sky Thursday.  After another very cold start Thursday morning, expect afternoon temperatures to return to the low/mid 50s along with a light south wind (upper 40s mountains).  Some high clouds begin to stream in Thursday afternoon and night.  Temperatures Thursday night and Friday morning will not be quite as cold, but still chilly with an overnight low in the low/mid 30s.  More cloud cover moves in Friday and possibly a sprinkle, but most areas dry and afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 50s.

By Saturday, skies should remain cloudy but afternoon temperatures should reach the low/mid 60s.  Again, there is a small chance for rain, but most areas locally remaining cloudy.  On Sunday, afternoon temperatures should reach the upper 60s to near 70 as a southerly flow increases.  Skies should again be cloudy and rain chances should increase Sunday afternoon and evening.

WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES

As mentioned above, rain chances should slowly increase through the weekend with the best chances by Sunday afternoon and evening.  The slow approach of this storm system could allow for some soaking rainfall across the Tennessee Valley.  Rain chances could continue right through Monday before ending late day.  Some of the forecast model data project rainfall amounts locally from over 1.60" (GFS Model) to around 1.40" (Euro Model).

ANOTHER COLD BLAST POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY

Just as temperatures warm, it is possible that another round of cold air could return to the Tennessee Valley.  A cold front sweeps through Monday night and early Tuesday ending the rain chances, but ushers in some colder air.  Forecast model projections indicate that Tuesday's day time temperatures could hover in the 40s along with a strong northerly wind (just like this past Tuesday).  Sunny for Wednesday with another bone chilling morning in the 20s and afternoon highs only in the upper 40s.

Mostly dry through that upcoming cold spell until late next week as some rain could return by Friday.

WINTER FORECAST COMING UP ON THE 25TH!

A nearly 30 year StormTrack 9 tradition continues on Monday, November 25th with the annual winter forecast.  It will also be posted right here on the blog!

David Glenn




The Big Chill!

11/11/13

The coldest air of the season so far is about to move in!  Temperatures more like January than mid November.

ARCTIC FRONT MOVING IN

A windy and cold day can be expected Tuesday as the arctic front passes through.  Morning temperatures in the 40s will not move much "upward" during the day.  As the cold air moves in expect a brisk north wind at 15-25mph with higher gusts.  Gusts could be stronger at higher elevations.  There is limited moisture with this front as it moves through locally.  So, there could be some patchy areas of light showers along the leading edge of the front during the morning and afternoon.  Again, any precipitation amounts should be light.  As the air quickly chills, there could be some periods of flurries at higher elevations, but patchy in nature.  At this time, no problems are expected from this.

Again, the unseasonably cold air is the big story.  Temperatures Tuesday night should quickly plummet to the mid/upper 20s.  Areas away from the city and at higher elevations could drop to the lower 20s and even upper 10s. 

Wednesday should not be as windy, but still unseasonably cold.  Sunny throughout the day with a breeze from the north at 10-15mph.  Afternoon temperatures should only reach the mid/upper 40s.  Cold again Wednesday night with a clear sky and mid 20s (Near 20 and even upper 10s north & mountains)

SLOW WARMING THROUGH LATE WEEK

Since it is still November, the chill should be short lived.  Afternoon temperatures should be back in the low 50s Thursday and upper 50s to near 60 by Friday.  But, along with the warming trend should be more cloud cover.  By Saturday, skies should be cloudy with mid 60s by the afternoon and even a few showers by evening.  A better chance for showers is possible Sunday with low 60s by the afternoon.  The showers could continue into Monday.  Early forecast model projections indicate the possibility of between 0.50" to 1.00".

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Arctic Front Arrives Tuesday

11/10/13

We've been "blogging" about this since last week.  The coldest air of the season so far is still expected to push into the Tennessee Valley Tuesday.   Veteran's Day still looks very nice with a sunny to partly sunny sky and afternoon temperatures in the mid 60s.  At 11am, expect sunshine and upper 50s.  Thank You to all Veteran's for your service to our country!  The arctic front arrives on Tuesday.  Cloud cover rapidly increases during the predawn hours in advance of the front.  Some precipitation is possible, but this system will be moisture starved as it rolls through.  So, some light showers could be produce as the front rolls through Tuesday afternoon.  The rapid chilling of the air aloft and at the surface could allow for a period of flurries or light snow showers, especially at higher elevations.  However, this should not last long and does not appear to be problematic at this time.  As always, we will keep an eye on this Tuesday as the front rolls in.  The "big" story here is the early season chill.  Windy and colder through Tuesday afternoon as temperatures hold steady and slowly fall through the 40s along with a brisk north wind at 15-25mph and gusty.  Drier, windy and colder through Tuesday night as overnight temperatures tumble to the mid/upper 20s.  Sunny, but unseasonably cold Wednesday with afternoon temperatures only in the 40s and still breezy at times. An even colder night Wednesday night with a clear sky and temperatures dipping into the mid 20s (A Hard Freeze).  Sunny and a rebound in temperature for Thursday with mid 50s possible.  60s return by late week and the start of the weekend, but also with an increasing chance for rain late Saturday and into Sunday.  You can depend on us for updates on this arctic front!




Warmer Weekend Afternoons....Cold Blast Next Week!

11/08/13

A beautiful weekend for the Tennessee Valley with warmer afternoons each day. But, some of the coldest air of the season could move in by Tuesday.

"PERFECT" WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

For November, you can't beat this weather pattern!  It will be quite chilly Saturday morning with mid 30s and frost by sunrise.  A quick warm up through the afternoon thanks to sunshine and a southerly breeze.  That should allow temperatures to reach between 60-62 (50s mountains).  It won't be quite as cold Saturday night, but still a bit chilly with upper 30s to around 40.  Sunday looks a little warmer with a sunny to partly sunny sky and afternoon temperatures in the mid 60s (50s to near 60 mountains).

WARM & DRY VETERAN'S DAY

Another beautiful day Monday as we honor and thank all Veteran's for their service to our country!  Sunny with afternoon temperatures in the mid 60s.  At 11:00am, temperatures should be in the upper 50s.

MUCH COLDER AIR TUESDAY

A strong clipper system for this time of year rolls southward and through the Tennessee Valley by late Tuesday.  Expect a windy day with increasing clouds.  Some rain showers could occur out ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, but precip amounts look light at this time.  Temperatures Tuesday afternoon should struggle to get out of the low 50s along with a brisk north-northwest wind at 15-25mph and gusty.

As the colder air settles in Tuesday night and into early Wednesday, some of the remaining moisture could transition to a period of flurries or brief periods of snow showers at higher elevations.  No problems expected as, again, precip amounts look light at this time.  Wednesday should again be windy at times but feeling more like January instead of November as temperatures struggle to get out of the 40s.  Wednesday night's overnight temperatures could dip to between 25-28.  Thursday should not be as windy, but still cool with afternoon highs in the upper 40s to near 50 with sunshine.

The cold snap should be short lived as afternoon temperatures return to the 50s and even near 60 by next Friday and Saturday.  Speaking of the following weekend, some showers could accompany the milder air.

As always, you can depend on us for updates on this early season blast of cold air!

David Glenn




Rainfall Amounts Look Light For Thursday Morning

11/05/13

A weakening cold front should approach the Tennessee Valley Thursday morning resulting in some showers.  But, rainfall amounts look light.

NOTHING HEAVY OR SEVERE

This is not a strong system at all.  But, it should spread scattered showers into the Tennessee Valley late Wednesday night and through Thursday morning.  Drier air should move in for Thursday afternoon.  Looking at the various computer forecast models, most rainfall amounts look light and only range from 0.10"-0.25".  And, a lot of areas look less than that.  Also, there is no threat of severe weather with this cold front.

A NICE, SEASONAL WEEKEND

We have been on a nice run with the weather being nice for the weekend.  And this weekend is no exception.  Friday looks sunny to partly sunny with afternoon temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s after a chilly morning in the upper 30s.  Saturday and Sunday look just as nice.  Chilly Saturday morning with mid 30s, then sunny by afternoon and low 60s.  Upper 30s to near 40 Sunday morning, then partly sunny & mid/upper 60s by afternoon.

This gradual warming trend continue into next week.  Still mostly dry through at least Tuesday.  The next chance for meaningful rain could arrive for Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

David Glenn




Seasonal Temperatures For A While

11/04/13

The colder days of December are not far away, so enjoy the seasonal, mild temperatures while they last!

WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK

A slow approach by a cold front will allow for a prolonged period of southerly wind through Wednesday.  This means that a warming trend will continue.  Expect mid/upper 60s by Tuesday afternoon and even near 70 by Wednesday afternoon.  Morning temperatures also moving up with only upper 40s by Wednesday morning and only low/mid 50s by Thursday morning.

SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY

By the time the cold front reaches our viewing area, it should be a little weaker.  This means that the threat of heavy rain or severe storms remains very low.  Forecast model data shows the timing of the showers best during the first half of Thursday, then tapering late day.  Rainfall amounts are not all that impressive with model data averaging below 0.50".

DRY & SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND

Dry air returns Friday!  Skies should become partly sunny with daily highs in the upper 50s mountains to lower 60s valley.  Morning lows should drop back to the 30s over the weekend, but daily highs in the low 60s under a partly sunny sky each day.  The quiet and seasonal pattern should continue into early next week.

WHEN WILL YOU GIVE YOUR WINTER FORECAST?

Naturally this time of year I get asked that question a lot!  The StormTrack 9 Winter Forecast is an annual tradition going back 3 decades!  As usual, I do this in late November to watch the Fall weather patterns through late month which can help fine tune what we expect for the winter season.  Do I see some really cold air at times this year?  Yes.  More on this and the entire StormTrack 9 Winter Forecast on Monday, November 25th! 

David Glenn




The First Weekend of November

11/01/13

Yes, it is already November!  The weekend got off to a warm start Friday afternoon, but temperatures should gradually get cooler each day through the weekend.

BREEZY AT TIMES SATURDAY

Another upper level system should swing through the Tennessee Valley Saturday.  This should bring some periods of cloudiness and even produce some sprinkles or patchy light rain at times during the day.  Any precip should not last long and amounts should be light.  But, this could cause some interruptions at times with some outdoor activities.

The northwest wind also picks up Saturday afternoon.  Speeds between 10-20mph with some higher gusts possible.  Afternoon temperatures should only reach the mid 60s.

If you are traveling to the Great Smoky Mountains National Park Saturday, there could be some snowflakes mixing in with the rain showers over the higher terrain (5000 ft+).

Skies should quickly clear Saturday night and it will be a little colder with overnight temperatures dipping to near 40 with some 30s in spots.

SUNNY & QUITE COOL SUNDAY

A lot of sunshine can be expected for Sunday, but it should be quite cool.  Afternoon temperatures should be in the mid/upper 50s for most, but a few spots near 60.  Cold again Sunday night with lows mostly in the upper 30s.

DRY WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY WEEK

A quiet weather pattern continues for the early part of the upcoming work week.  Daily highs in the mid/upper 60s Monday and Tuesday, then around 70 Wednesday.  Morning lows also rising from the 30s  Monday morning to the upper 40s Wednesday morning.  Each day should exhibit a mix of sun and clouds.

SHOWERS & STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY

The next frontal system to roll through locally should be on Thursday.  A few showers could begin as early as late Wednesday, but the best chance Thursday.  A good coverage of showers locally Thursday and even the chance of storms.  A little early to say whether or not some severe storms will be possible.  But, as always, we will be keeping an eye on that.

Drier and seasonably cool weather returns for next Friday and the start of the following weekend!

David Glenn




Wind Advisory Continues Through 7amET Friday

10/31/13

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT /6 AM CDT/FRIDAY MORNING...* EVENT...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH...WITH  GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH...WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE HIGHER  ELEVATIONS AND WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS.* TIMING...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...FALLEN TREES AND POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  TRAVELERS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ALERT FOR STRONG AND GUSTY  CROSSWINDS...ESPECIALLY THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES NEAR  THE MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.




Halloween Night/Friday Morning Showers & Storms (Update)

10/29/13

An approaching cold could still bring a round of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms through our viewing area Thursday night (Halloween) and Friday Morning.

WET FOR TRICK-OR-TREATING?

The timing of the arrival of the showers is still in question as the whole system continues to develop to our west. Model forecast data does indicate the possibility of shower activity developing locally during the early evening hours.  While this should not be the heavier rain and storms that could occur later, it could still make for some wet trick-or-treating conditions in spots.  Where showers do not occur, expect a cloudy and windy evening with temperatures in the 60s. 

It's a good idea to download our StormTrack 9 App to have our radar readily available.  You might also want to plan on starting your trick-or-treating a little earlier than usual.

LATE NIGHT HEAVY RAIN & SOME STORMS

The better coverage of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms should arrive later in the night through Friday morning.  Severe storms are possible to our west over West Tennessee, North Mississippi and NW Alabama through early evening.  It still looks as if the upper level dynamics should weaken as the front progresses eastward during the night.  So, it still looks like the risk of "widespread" severe weather remains low locally.  But, there could be some isolated strong storms within the approaching line of showers and storms during the night.  Right now the main threat locally looks to be the risk of strong wind gusts and heavy rain.  But, as always, we will continue to keep an eye on this system.

COOLER & DRIER WEEKEND

Most showers and storms should end Friday morning.  Drier air moves in for the afternoon and still warm for a little while longer as temperatures reach near 70.  The much cooler air should move in Friday night and into Saturday morning with temperatures dipping into the mid 40s.  Saturday looks sunny with an afternoon high in the low/mid 60s.  Near 40 (some 30s) Saturday night through Sunday morning.  Then sunny to partly sunny Sunday with low 60s by afternoon.

David Glenn




Halloween Night Showers & Storms

10/28/13

An approaching cold front should bring the chance of showers and thunderstorm back to the Tennessee Valley, especially late Thursday night (Halloween) and into Friday morning.  While some isolated strong storms are possible, the risk of widespread severe weather locally remains low.

The cold front could produce some strong storms over West Tennessee and North Mississippi Thursday (Halloween).  The stronger upper level dynamics should exist there at the time the front approaches.  Some showers are possible locally during the early evening hours Thursday, but most areas locally should be cloudy and dry through the prime trick or treating hours.

By the time the cold front and pre-frontal line of showers/storms reaches our local viewing area, the upper level dynamics should weaken quite a bit.  This should reduce the severity a bit by the time the activity reaches us.  Some storms could have strong wind gusts and heavy rain.  But, the widespread risk of severe storms remains low at this time.

Over an inch of rain could fall across the viewing area as the bulk of the showers/storms move through during the overnight hours and Friday morning. 

You can depend on us for updates in advance of this storm system.  We are closely watching the latest forecast model data and will keep you updated on any changes with this system.

David Glenn




A Few Showers Possible Sunday Night & Monday

10/27/13

As the warming trend continues into the work week, a weak system moving through could produce some light showers across the Tennessee Valley late Sunday night and into Monday.  Rainfall amounts should be light and spotty.  But, just enough to dampen some local spots on of all days....a Monday!  Drier and warmer conditions return for Tuesday and Wednesday with morning lows only in the upper 40s/lower 50s with afternoon highs in the mid 70s.....(David)




A Warming Trend Follows The Chill

10/25/13

The early season freezing temperatures should give way to a warming trend for the remainder of the weekend and continue into the work week.

A RAPID REBOUND

Temperatures should be at or below freezing for most local spots Saturday morning.  But, with sunshine and a light southerly wind, temperatures should slowly warm back through the 50s by afternoon and even near 60 in spots.  Saturday night will not be nearly as cold with overnight low temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to the lower 40s.  More clouds moving in Sunday mixing with the sun.  Still warmer with an afternoon high in the mid 60s.

The warming trend should continue into the work week.  Daily highs should be in the low to mid 70s Tuesday through Thursday with morning lows rising from the 40s through Tuesday morning, to the 50s by Wednesday morning.  The weather pattern remains dry through Thursday morning.

SHOWERS & STORMS AROUND HALLOWEEN

The "timing" of a cold front is still in question, but the chance does exist for some showers and storms at some point during the second half of Thursday (Halloween) and into early Friday morning.  Computer models differ a bit on the timing of the front, so we will continue to keep an eye on this trend.  The GFS model favors a faster moving front bring rain and storms into the local area Thursday afternoon and night resulting in around 1" of rainfall.

Some thunderstorms are possible as the front moves through.  Surface instability remains low, at least from forecast model trends.  So, at this point, the risk of severe storms remains low.  But, as always, we will continue to watch this as Thursday approaches.

ANOTHER CHILL DOWN THE ROAD

Longer range projections from both the US and European models indicate a deep trough again settling in across the Eastern US and Southeast.  This could mean some below normal temperatures yet again by next weekend (Nov 2 & 3).

David Glenn




Risk Of Frost & Even Freezing Temps The Next Few Nights

10/23/13

We've talked about it for days, and the chill has now arrived!  Much colder nights ahead could result in some frost area wide. And, possibly the first freeze of the season, especially by Saturday morning.

NORTHWEST FLOW = COLD MORNING LOWS!

A persistent flow from the northwest should keep temperatures locally well below seasonal averages.  This type of pattern is more common into November and through the winter months.  Morning lows on Thursday should dip to the mid 30s which could result in frost across the viewing area.  Some clouds should move back in for Thursday.  The clouds and the continued west-northwest flow should keep afternoon highs in the upper 50s.  The last in a series of upper air disturbances should move through the Tennessee Valley by early Friday morning.  This should bring a reinforcing shot of cold air.

Afternoon temperatures Friday should stay in the low/mid 50s under a sunny sky.  As the breeze relaxes Friday night and into Saturday morning under a clear sky, temperatures could be the coldest of the season so far.  Temperatures by sunrise Saturday could be at or just below the freezing mark of 32.  Outlying areas away from the city could dip to the upper 20s.

Take precautions now to protect tender plants from the early season chill.  And, please be sure that you are heating your home safely!

WARMER AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND

After the near freezing temperatures Saturday morning, temperatures should rebound quickly to the upper 50s to around 60 with sunshine through the afternoon.  Saturday night should not be as cold with lows only dropping to the upper 30s to around 40.  Even warmer Sunday afternoon with a few clouds and highs in the mid 60s.

WARMER NEXT WEEK

The warming trend continues into next week with afternoon temperatures near 70 by Tuesday and again Wednesday.  Morning lows also increasing to the 40s to near 50 by midweek.  The next chance for showers could occur by next Thursday (Halloween).  More on that in the days ahead!

David Glenn




Colder Mornings Becoming The Norm!

10/21/13

Morning temperatures should become a little colder through the work week.  More widespread frost possible and even the season's first freeze.

CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY

The first in a series of cold fronts approaches the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.  This should result in more cloud cover.  A few isolated showers could occur, especially north.  But, any rainfall amounts should remain light and under 0.10".  Most areas locally just dry and cloudy.  Afternoon temperatures should still be seasonal with mid/upper 60s.  Skies should clear a bit Tuesday night with temperatures by Wednesday morning in the mid 40s.

BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY

A clipper-like cold front should rush in Wednesday ushering in some of the coldest air of the season so far.  Sunshine returning through Wednesday afternoon, but high temperatures only reaching the mid/upper 50s.  A brisk northwest wind should make it feel even colder.  Temperatures Wednesday night should dip into the mid 30s, meaning more scattered frost across our viewing area.  A few spots in the outlying areas could dip to near the freezing mark of 32.

MORNINGS IN THE 30S THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

As mentioned above, mid 30s are possible Thursday morning.  Another shot of colder air moves in Friday which should drop afternoon temperatures again only to the 50s.  Temperatures Friday night and Saturday morning could dip to around 32.  This means that the first official freeze of the season could occur.  The average date for the first freeze of the season is November 4th.  So, if Lovell Field has freezing temperatures Saturday morning, it would mark and early season first freeze by 9 days.  Morning temperatures should remain in the 30s through Sunday morning.

Now is the time to make preparation to protect tender plants from the frost and freeze conditions.

David Glenn




Weekend & Long Range Outlook.....Some Chills Ahead!

10/18/13

The first really cool nights of Autumn are finally upon us.  And, this could just be the beginning as several waves of cold air could move in over the next 1-2 weeks.

SATURDAY CLOUDS

In advance of yet another cold front, cloud cover should settle in for Saturday.  A few areas of showers could develop especially over the northern half of the viewing area.  Any showers should move quickly and not last long, while most areas just stay cloudy.  As the front moves through during the afternoon it should become breezy.  Temperatures should still reach the upper 60s to near 70, but begin to taper off into the evening as the northwest breeze kicks in and brings cooler air.

SUNNY SUNDAY, BUT A COLD MORNING

Sharply colder air behind that cold front should settle in by Sunday morning.  This should push morning temperatures to near 40 in the city and even some spots north and mountains in the 30s.  Patchy frost could occur along the Cumberland Plateau.  The rest of Sunday looks sunny with afternoon temperatures in the mid/upper 60s.

This beautiful Fall weather should carry over into Monday with a partly sunny sky.  Morning temperatures in the low 40s and an afternoon high in the upper 60s to near 70.

COLDER MORNING MID/LATE NEXT WEEK

The gradual step down in morning temperatures should continue into next week.  A series of cold fronts, or clipper systems should usher in some of the coldest air of the season so far.  Clouds for Tuesday and Wednesday, but any rain chances with the cold fronts remain low.  Morning lows locally could drop to the upper 30s by Wednesday morning, then mid/upper 30s Thursday and Friday morning.  This means some widespread areas of patchy frost will be possible.  And, some outlying areas could get close to the freezing mark for the first time this season.

NEXT 1-2 WEEKS COULD STAY CHILLY

Several shots of cold air continue to show up on longer range computer models.  This trend continues into the first week of November.

Click Here for the 6-10 day temperature outlook

Click Here for the 8-14 day temperature outlook

David Glenn




A Change In The Air!

10/15/13

As clouds roll in, it signifies a change in our weather pattern.  Wetter and cooler conditions for Wednesday and especially Thursday.

COLD FRONT MOVING IN

A cold front should approach the Tennessee Valley through Wednesday and then move through by Thursday morning.  This should bring an increase in showers, but slowly.  Most of Wednesday looks cloudy.  Some showers can occasionally be expected, but not an all day washout.  With a southwest wind, temperatures could still reach around 70 even with the cloud cover.

The front draws closer Wednesday night which should produce a better coverage of showers through the night and into Thursday.  Even after the front passes Thursday morning, some residual rain showers will still be possible.  The wind shift from south to north will also allow cooler air to move in and become noticeable Thursday.  Temperatures should remain in the 60s Thursday, so a cool & wet day expected.

We are not expecting any severe storms or heavy rain.  Rainfall amounts through late Thursday should average at around 0.50" or less.  Just slightly higher over southern sections of the viewing area in Georgia and Alabama.

COOLER MORNINGS AHEAD

Starting Friday morning, you should notice the difference.  Temperatures should drop into the mid/upper 40s on average.  Afternoon highs staying mostly in the mid/upper 60s, but a few spots near 70.  Mornings in the mid/upper 40s also expected through the weekend.  So, for those Friday night football games, you will need the jackets and sweaters!

A FEW WEEKEND SHOWERS

Some showers are possible Saturday as a fast moving system moves through the Tennessee Valley.  The best chance appears to be during Saturday afternoon and evening, but mainly scattered showers, otherwise cloudy.  Drier air should push in for Sunday with highs in the upper 60s to possibly near 70.

David Glenn




Longer Range Look Ahead

10/09/13

A quiet weather pattern for the Tennessee Valley through early next week, but a more active pattern follows.  Rain chances start to increase and temperatures start to decrease.

QUITE WARM THROUGH MONDAY

While morning temperatures should remain in the 50s, afternoon temperatures through Monday should average from 80-82 (70s mountains).  Sunny to partly sunny each day as high pressure holds on and keeps most of the East and Southeast US quite warm for early to mid October.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY (16th)

Our next weather pattern change should come by late Tuesday and into Wednesday.  This cold front should help usher in showers and even some t-showers through Wednesday.  Early model data shows rainfall amounts from 0.50"-0.75" through Wednesday evening with a little more possible through the early morning predawn hours of Thursday.  Severe weather chances look low at this time for the Tennessee Valley.

This front will help change our overall pattern from one that is dominated by a "ridge" of high pressure to that of a "trough" of low pressure.  As the trough settles over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley, temperatures should turn much cooler.  Morning temperatures by mid/late next week could dip into the 40s locally and daily highs could stay in the 60s.  This would be just a little bit below seasonal averages.

The latest 8-14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center agrees indicating below normal temperatures for our region for that period starting around the 17th. 

This change for the "cooler" should continue into the weekend of the 19th-20th.

David Glenn




Beautiful Fall Weather

10/07/13

A beautiful week ahead for the Tennessee Valley!

TYPICAL EARLY OCTOBER WEATHER

As expected, a cold front swept through the Tennessee Valley ushering in some of the coolest air of the season so far.  Morning lows should dip to near 50 by Tuesday morning with 40s possible in the outlying areas and higher elevations.  Partly sunny Tuesday afternoon with low/mid 70s, but upper 60s mountains.

This pattern should continue for most of the work week with sunshine each afternoon Wednesday through Friday and daily highs from 75-80 and morning lows in the low 50s.

WEEKEND LOOKS DRY FOR NOW

Weekends are so important in October with so many outdoor activities in the Tennessee Valley.  Right now, the trend still looks dry with cool mornings in the low 50s and warm afternoons in the upper 70s to near 80.

David Glenn




First Weekend Of October

10/04/13

The first weekend of October will feel more like August to begin with.  Then, as rain chances increase, temperatures should decrease.

Click Here for the latest updates on "Karen" from the National Hurricane Center

A BIT HOT SATURDAY

A strong dome of high pressure holds on for one more day across the Tennessee Valley.  This should keeps skies locally sunny to partly sunny.  Afternoon temperatures should reach the mid and even upper 80s through the afternoon (near 80 mountains).  Only a slight chance for an isolated shower through Saturday afternoon and evening.  Knoxville and Neyland Stadium look partly sunny & 84 for the kickoff between the Vols & the Dawgs at 3:30pm.  At Finley Stadium for the 6pm kickoff between the Mocs and Western Carolina looks partly sunny & 82.

SHOWERS EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SUNDAY

The question is still there as to how much rain we could receive from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.  That is because of the eventual inland track of what is left of "Karen".  A cold front approaches the Tennessee Valley Sunday which should bring an increase in cloud cover and then eventually some scattered showers during the afternoon with the coverage increasing later in the day and into Sunday night.

If the heaviest rain continues to remain to our south, then rainfall amounts locally should remain below an inch as the cold front moves through.  The core of the heaviest rain could stay to our south over central and southern Georgia, then into South Carolina.  Again, we'll continue to keep an eye on the remnants of "Karen" through the weekend.

Showers should taper off after midday Monday.

FINALLY, IT SHOULD FEEL MORE LIKE OCTOBER

While it won't be a blast of cold air, at the very least the cooler air will make it feel more like it should for the first week of October.  Drier, cooler air filters in late Monday and into Tuesday.  So, for most of next week, expect daily highs in the low/mid 70s and morning lows in the low 50s.  Some upper 40s will be possible away from the city and at higher elevations for a few mornings next week.  So, it's time to break out those jackets and maybe even a sweater.

David Glenn




Will "Karen" Affect Our Weekend?

10/03/13

A lot of folks have asked us about Tropical Storm Karen and what if any impacts it could have on the weekend here in the Tennessee Valley.

KEEPING TRACK OF "KAREN"

Download the free StormTrack 9 App to view the latest forecast track.  The App is available for iOS and Android devices, just search "WTVC WX".  Be sure to go to the settings tab and turn "on" the Tropical Tracks and even the Tropical Map Layer Alerts.

Click Here for the latest information and forecast track for "Karen" from the National Hurricane Center

WATCHING THE INLAND TRACK OF "KAREN"

The post landfall movement of Karen will determine how much rain the Tennessee Valley receives.  Karen should be directed north toward the central Gulf Coast by a strong dome of high pressure off the Southeast coast.  Landfall could be early Sunday from anywhere between Biloxi to Mobile to Pensacola/Ft Walton Beach.  After landfall, as the storm moves farther inland, an upper level trough to the west should help steer "Karen" toward the northeast.  That eventual northeast movement and when it occurs is critical as to where the swath of heavy rain could occur.

"If" Karen indeed moves quickly northeast after landfall, that would take the storm toward central and southern Georgia and then through the Carolinas.  That scenario would keep the heaviest tropical rain to our south and east as well as the stronger wind gusts. "If" Karen moves more toward the north and delays moving northeast, then the swath of heavy rain could affect parts of our viewing area Sunday through early Monday.  That scenario could also increase the chance for strong thunderstorms locally.

As with any tropical system, you have to take it one day at a time.  Forecast tracks can change and be adjusted before and after landfall.  You can depend on us for updates!

HOT UNTIL "KAREN" MAKES LANDFALL

As high pressure strengthens over us, it could create some very hot temperatures for early October.  Locally, we could have high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s through Saturday.  A few spots could even reach near 90.

COOLER AIR AS THE RAIN ARRIVES

As showers develop ahead of the cold front and any other effects from "Karen", temperatures locally should cool.  70s expected for Sunday.  After the rain exits Monday, some nice early October weather can be expected with daily highs in the mid 70s and morning lows in the low 50s for most of next week.

David Glenn




Warmth Continues & A Closer Look At Late Weekend Rain Chances

10/02/13

The expected warm start to October should continue through Saturday, then we will turn our attention to an increasing chance for showers by Sunday.

80S FOR NOW!

A late Summer pattern should continue through Saturday.  Patchy dense fog each morning being the main weather hazard.  But, each afternoon looks partly sunny with only slight chances for any isolated showers.  Daily highs in the mid to even upper 80s (near 80 mountains) and morning lows near 60 (50s mountains & areas away from the city).

SUNNY FOR THE VOLS & DAWGS

Saturday's 3:30pm kickoff at Neyland Stadium looks sunny to partly sunny.  Very warm as well with low/mid 80s at kickoff!

HEAVY OR LIGHT SHOWERS BY SUNDAY?

That is the question that I will be focused on for the next few days.  The approaching cold front would typically produce scattered showers across our region.  But, one factor that we have to watch is the possible development of a tropical system in the southern Gulf.  Many of the computer models favor some sort of development.  If this occurs, the next name on the list is "Karen".

This becomes a factor as to how much rain we could receive during the Sunday/Monday time frame.  "If" that Gulf system moves toward the Big Bend area of Florida, then most of the upper level dynamics and heavy rain stays to our south and east.  "If" that Gulf system moves inland along the central Gulf coast, then the coverage of rain locally could increase as moisture is fed northward in advance of the front.  Right now, the bulk of the model data favors the movement to the Big Bend area.  So, if that happened then the heavier rain and strong storms will stay to our south and east.  The approaching front would then only produce scattered showers locally as the Gulf system robs the cold front of moisture.

So, a lot of "ifs" as we watch the Gulf system.  Of course, I'll have more details in the days ahead.

LONGER RANGE PATTERN CHANGE

Since it is now October. many of you have been asking me when we can expect a blast of chilly air.  Well, temperatures should gradually ease back closer to normal by next week.  But, this is not exactly a cold blast of air.  We should have daily highs next week cooling to the 70s and morning lows in the low 50s.

But, longer range models (both US & Euro) favor a pattern change by the weekend of Oct 12th.  This could mean a strong cold front by that weekend producing some thunderstorms.  The upper level pattern change could bring with it some mornings in the 40s after the front passes by for the week of the 14th.

I'll continue to update you on that pattern as well!

David Glenn




A Warm Start To October

09/30/13

Warmer than seasonal average temperatures can be expected as we begin October!

CALENDAR CONFUSION

Early season temperatures can sometimes be topsy turvy!  This past Spring started cold for example.  And, the first few days of October should be warmer than normal before a pattern shift by late weekend and early next week.  Seasonal normal temperatures for the first week of October locally would typically have a daily high in the mid/upper 70s and morning lows in the mid/upper 50.  We should average above that through Saturday with daily highs in the low/mid 80s and morning lows near 60.

By next week, a seasonal blast of cool air should move in.  This should lower the daily highs to the mid 70s by Sunday through Tuesday and morning lows in the mid 50s.  So, if you don't like the very warm temperatures....have patience,,,some cooler air is not far away!

DRY FOR NOW, BUT SOME WEEKEND SHOWERS POSSIBLE

September 2013 will end up drier than normal and also slightly warmer than normal.  That is totally opposite of what we had for most of the Summer that was cooler and wetter.

This dry trend should continue through at least the start of the weekend.  Scattered cloud cover, but only small shower chances through Saturday afternoon.  As mentioned above, temperatures should also be quite warm.

A cold front approaches the Tennessee Valley by late Saturday and especially Saturday night that could produce some showers and t-showers.  That chance continues for most of the day Sunday before possibly ending by early Monday.  Early rainfall projections indicate the possibility of 0.50"-0.75".

As always, you can depend on us for updates through the week!

David Glenn




A Warm Fall Weekend

09/27/13

The first weekend of Fall should be warm and mostly dry.  Some clouds should move in Sunday, but only slight rain chances.

SATURDAY SUNSHINE

Abundant sunshine throughout the day Saturday!  A comfortable morning in the mid/upper 50s should give way to afternoon highs near 80, but 70s on the mountain tops.  A fair sky through Saturday night with mid/upper 50s again.  Great conditions for the start of the Hamilton Co. Fair this weekend.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEATHER SATURDAY

UTC at Georgia Southern  6pm   Sunny & near 80 at kickoff

South Alabama at Tennessee 12:21pm  Sunny with 70s at kickoff

LSU and Georgia  3:30pm  Sunny with low 80s at kickoff

Ole Miss at Alabama 6:30pm  Sunny & near 80 at kickoff with 70s & clear late game.

UAB at Vandy  7:30pm  Clear with 70s, then 60s

MTSU at BYU  9pm  Clear & chilly with 40s & 50s


CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY

A weakening cold front should approach the Tennessee Valley Sunday.  This should result in an increase in cloud cover.  Upper 50s during the morning, then upper 70s by afternoon.  There could be a few isolated showers as the front approaches, but only a few spots locally can expect this during the afternoon and evening, otherwise cloudy.

CLOUDS & WARM NEXT WEEK

A similar pattern can be expected for most of next week as we cruise into October.  Clouds should linger, but any rain chances remaining in the slight category Monday and Tuesday.  Daily highs near 80 and morning lows near 60.  Just a slightly better chance for a passing shower on Wednesday with highs again near 80.

David Glenn




Drier & Seasonably Warm Through Late Week

09/25/13

The expected midweek rain moved in and now we are looking forward to some beautiful weather heading into the start of the weekend.

LINGERING CLOUDS, THEN SLOW CLEARING

That should describe Thursday in the Tennessee Valley.  Low clouds and fog to begin the day with temperatures around 60 during the morning.  With fog around there could even be some patchy drizzle/light rain in spots during the morning.  The "pesky" cloud cover should finally start to break away through the afternoon as drier air moves in.  So, a mix of sun and clouds can be expected.  Afternoon temperatures should at least reach the mid/upper 70s.  If we get more sun, a few spots could reach around 80.

BEAUTIFUL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY

Full sunshine both days with daily highs in the low 80s (70s mountains) and morning lows in the upper 50s to near 60.  Perfect football weather for all of the area high school football games Friday evening with a clear sky and 60s & 70s during the games.

The weather looks great for the start of this weekend's Hamilton County Fair.  The UTC Mocs will be in Statesboro, GA taking on Georgia Southern.  The 6pm kickoff should have a clear sky with 70s.  The Vols are back at Neyland Stadium to take on South Alabama for a midday kickoff.  Expect sunshine and low 70s at kickoff with upper 70s to near 80 by the 4th qtr.  The huge showdown between LSU and UGA in Athens, GA also looks sunny with temperatures near 80 for the 3:30pm kickoff.

LOOKING AHEAD TO OCTOBER

The Climate Prediction Center has released the October temperature and precipitation outlook for the US.  The temperature outlook favors a warm Western US with the East and Southeast under the "Equal Chances" for above or below normal temperatures.  The shorter range CFSv2 model for the first two weeks of October keeps us warm the first few days, then possibly cooler than normal after the weekend of the 5th.

The CPC precipitation outlook also has a large part of the US under the "Equal Chances" category.  Locally, October is statistically our driest month of the year.  The CFSv2 model shows a slightly wetter than normal start to October locally, then drier as the possible cooler conditions move in after the weekend of the 5th.

Of course this is all speculative and based on short and long range model data.  As always you can depend on us for updates!

Click Here for the Climate Prediction Center October Temperatures Outlook

Click Here for the Climate Prediction Center October Precipitation Outlook

David Glenn




Shower Chances Returning

09/23/13

After a beautiful start to Autumn, some showers could move our way by Tuesday and continue into Wednesday.

SHOWERS RETURNING

This time of year, weather systems begin moving a little faster.  This results in faster changes in weather patterns compared to the stagnant patterns of late Summer.  And, that is the case again by Tuesday.

High pressure over the Great Lakes moves east allowing for a low pressure system over the Plains to drag a cold front our way.  This front will have some Gulf moisture fed into to it by a strong low pressure system along the northern Gulf coast.  This should begin to move clouds back into the Tennessee Valley Tuesday and even a few showers through the afternoon.  The better chance for showers should occur Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

Computer model guidance has some wide differences of opinion with the GFS indicating lighter rainfall amounts locally, while the NAM and CMC (Canadian) supplying wetter scenarios.  The GFS projects a very light 0.28" locally, while the NAM paints a soggy 1" average swath across our local region.  The Canadian (CMC) is right in between.  So,  it appears the amounts should be lighter than the 1.50" we had on Saturday.

WARM & DRY END TO THE WEEK

Drier conditions return by Thursday.  Sunshine should be back and afternoon temperatures back in the low 80s.  In fact, temperatures through the start of the weekend should be a tad above normal with mid 80s possible.  Sunny, warm afternoons Thursday through Saturday looks great for the start of the Hamilton Co. Fair.

WHEN WILL IT GET COOLER?

I have received several questions from viewers wondering when an Autumn chill could settle in.  Well, start looking toward the beginning of October and quite possibly the weekend of Oct 5th.  Persistent upper level "ridging" should keep our temperatures seasonably warm through next week.  But, both the GFS and ECMWF (European) model indicate a possible pattern shift that could mean some much cooler conditions around the weekend of the 5th.

As always, we'll keep you updated!

David Glenn




Weekend Outlook: Autumn Arrives Sunday!

09/20/13

Autumn officially begins Sunday at 4:44pmET.  But, on the last day of Summer Saturday, showers and storms are possible.

A WET END TO A WET SUMMER

This is a totally fitting end to a wet Tennessee Valley summer.  But, it means a wet start to the weekend.

A cold front should push through the Tennessee Valley on Saturday which should result in a good chance for showers and some thunderstorms.  The best coverage during the morning through midday, then tapering off from west to east through late afternoon.  Rainfall amounts could exceed 0.50" in most spots, to some areas close to an inch.  Of course, some slow moving heavier t-showers could produce heavier amounts in a few isolated spots.

The speed of the front should prevent stalling and allow drier conditions to move in by late Saturday and into Saturday night.  Slightly cooler Saturday night with upper 50s by Sunday morning.

SUNNY START TO AUTUMN

Fall begins Sunday afternoon and the season gets off to a beautiful start!  Sunshine and low humidity through the afternoon with temperatures mostly in the 70s and near 80 in a few spots.  Cool again Sunday night with upper 50s, then lower 80s and partly sunny Monday.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NOW

Upper level "ridging" means that the first work week of Fall should be summer-like.  Daily high temperatures should be in the 80s (even some upper 80s possible late week).  Morning lows mostly in the 60s.

An upper level "trough" is projected by the start of October which could mean some Fall like cooler temperatures are not far away!

WATCHING THE GULF

September and early October are always interesting regarding any tropical development from Gulf "Lows".  Such a low pressure system is projected by computer forecast models for early next week.  "If" this develops, it could mean some soaking rainfall for the Southeast Monday through Wednesday.  Locally, this could mean a better chance for rain possibly returning Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday.

We'll continue to watch this and keep you updated!

David Glenn




Finally, A Hint Of Fall In The Air

09/13/13

Late season heat will finally give way to some cooler and drier air this weekend providing the Tennessee Valley with a hint of Fall!

COOLER WEEKEND MORNINGS

Drier air began moving in on Friday taking away the oppressive mugginess.  Cooler and drier air should continue moving in  through Saturday morning which should result in one of the coolest mornings in a quite a while.  Temperatures in Chattanooga should average in the mid/upper 50s by Saturday morning.  But, areas away from the city (especially north and mountains) should drop to near 50.

Sunshine and low humidity again Saturday with highs in the low 80s, except mid/upper 70s mountains.  Cooler than normal again Sunday morning with mid/upper 50s in the city and low 50s north & mountains.  Sunday should be a little warmer with sunshine and afternoon temps in the low/mid 80s.  A southeast breeze Sunday afternoon across the region.

MOSTLY DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

The dry conditions from the weekend should continue into at least early next week.  A weakening cool front approaches Monday.  This should bring some scattered cloudiness back to the Tennessee Valley, but any rain chances remain slim.  Temperatures also returning to seasonal levels with daily highs averaging in the mid 80s and lows in the low/mid 60s.

A better chance for scattered t-showers could return during the Wednesday-Friday time frame. 

A WETTER END TO SEPTEMBER?

The models seem to think so.  It's really not that unusual to have drier conditions in September & October.  Barring any landfalling tropical storms or hurricanes, the Tennessee Valley is typically drier to kickoff the Fall season.  So far this month, Lovell Field has only received 0.31", which is 1.37" below normal.  But, this dry spell has been a very welcomed sight after the very wet Spring and Summer.

The CFSv2 Model (Climate Forecast System version 2) has the latest two week outlook.  It projects the expected dry conditions into next week.  But, hints at wetter than normal conditions locally and across the Southeast region during the Sept 20th-26th time frame.




A Hot Weekend Ahead

09/06/13

The first "full" weekend of September should be a hot one for the Tennessee Valley

LATE SUMMER HEAT

The heat which was absent for so long this Summer is finally taking hold here in the Tennessee Valley.  A mostly dry work week and hot afternoons should carry over into the weekend.  Daily highs both Saturday and Sunday should average in the upper 80s to lower 90s (mid 80s mountains).  Skies should be sunny to partly sunny both days, but just a little more humid Sunday.  A few late day pop up t-showers are possible Sunday, but very little in number.  Morning temperatures mostly in the 60s.

HIGHER HUMIDITY & PM T-SHOWERS NEXT WEEK

Humidity levels should be on the rise next week which should result in muggier mornings and eventually better chances for afternoon and evening t-showers.  A slight chance on Monday, but the chances (or coverage) goes up a little more in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame.  By the end of the week drier air could move in and provide a break from the heat and humidity.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL KICKOFF WEATHER

UTC at Georgia State 2pmET (Inside the Ga Dome).  Tailgating conditions outside look sunny and hot with temperatures near 90.

WKU at UT 12:21pmET - Sunny with mid 80s at kickoff and upper 80s by the 4th Qtr.

South Carolina at UGA 4:30pmET - Sunny and hot with lower 90s at kickoff

App State at Vanderbilt 7pmCT - A fair sky with kickoff temperatures in the low 80s.

Ga Tech at Duke 3:30pmET - Sunny with low 80s at kickoff

DePauw at Sewanee 1pmCT - Sunny with low 80s at kickoff

NFL KICKOFF WEATHER

Falcons at Saints 1pmET (Inside the Superdome....dry & 70s)

Titans at Steelers 1pmET .  Morning showers, then a mix of clouds and sun with mid/upper 70s

Have a great weekend!!!




August 2013 Weather Recap & Long Range Outlooks

09/04/13

No surprise at all!  August 2013 in Chattanooga was cooler & wetter than average.

AUGUST 2013 LOCAL STATS

For the second August in a row, temperatures ended up below average.  In 2012, Chattanooga's Lovell Field recorded an average temperature that was 1.1 degrees below average.  In 2013, it dipped just a little bit more.  The average temperature was 78 degrees which was 1.4 degrees below average.  20 days had temperatures at or below average.  The coolest on the morning of the 26th with 65 degrees and the warmest on both the 29th and 31st with 93 degrees. On the 16th, a record lowest "high" temperature was tied with a high of only 73 degrees.  94 degrees was the highest temperature recorded for Summer 2013 Jun-Aug.  A far cry from the 107 of Summer 2012.

Of course one of the reasons for the below average temperatures was the abundant amount of rain.  The total for the month was 6.57", which was 3.09" above average.  This pushed the yearly total so far to over 54" which is already a normal yearly total.  That puts Chattanooga at over 18" above normal for rainfall.  The heaviest 24 hour total for August 2013 was 2.12" from the 12th to the 13th.

A persistent northerly flow mid month along with the rainfall was the other factor why temperatures were below average for August.

LOOKING AHEAD

Short range models insist that this hot start to September should continue through mid month.  Both the European (ECMWF) and US models (GFS/CFS) keep a strong upper level ridge over the Southeast.  This typically means warmer than average temperatures.  The 4 week CFS models have a similar temperature pattern with temperatures easing back to near average for the second half of September.  So, September could end up with slightly above normal temperatures which could break the trend we had for most of the Summer.

Rainfall looks near average based on a view of the various model data.  This of course could change should the Tennessee Valley and Southeast be affected by any tropical activity.

SEASONAL OUTLOOK

The Climate Prediction Center keeps the Southeast in the "Equal Chance" category for near/above/below normal temperatures for the Fall months of September-November.  Rainfall into that same pattern as well.  You can see those stats by following this link:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/

The Climate Forecast System (CFS) longer range seasonal model projects some average to above average temperature trends during the Fall in the Southeast, but some colder air could lurk to our north for the Winter months which could spill south.  The long range models continue to show a possible near to below average winter for temperatures in the Southeast.  Here is a link to the latest CFS seasonal temperature outlook.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me2Sea.html

Of course, only time will tell what eventually transpires.  As always, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 team for the latest on local long range and seasonal outlooks!

David Glenn




Labor Day Weekend - Humid With Scattered Storms

08/30/13

The Labor Day weekend in the Tennessee Valley should be very humid with occasional thunderstorms.

SUMMER HUMIDITY & SCATTERED STORMS

While the pattern is quite different from the washout of July 4th, nevertheless, it's another 2013 holiday weekend with the chance of some scattered thunderstorms.  Very humid each day of the holiday weekend with daily highs in the upper 80s to near 90.  The Heat Index looks brutal at times reaching the upper 90s level at times.

With a stalled front draped across the Tennessee Valley, scattered thunderstorms will be possible from time to time especially during the peak heating of the day.  This should be the case Saturday.  When t-showers are not occurring, expect a mix of clouds and sun.  Sunday and Labor Day should have slightly higher chances for scattered, heating of the day storms.  This should be due to a cold front moving in closer by Labor Day.  So, for all of your outdoor plans, be aware that some interruptions are possible from time to time due to scattered storms.  Due to the slow movement of a few storms, some heavy downpours and frequent lightning will be possible at times.

SUNNY & LESS HUMID BY TUESDAY

The cold front that moves through during Labor Day should provide a blast of much drier air.  This should bring some big relief from the oppressive humidity starting Tuesday and lasting through most of the upcoming short work week.  Expect more sunshine each day and lower humidity with daily highs in the mid 80s Tuesday through Thursday and morning lows in the mid 60s.  These temperatures should be just a tad below normal for early September.

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David Glenn




Local Weather Stats For Summer 2013 So Far.....

08/23/13

2013 has had some interesting weather locally.  Most notably, it has been WET!  Here is a look at some of the local weather stats for the year so far.

IT'S BEEN WET....REALLY?...YOU DON'T SAY!!!

This stat comes as no surprise that it has been a much wetter than normal year in Chattanooga.  So far at Lovell Field, the official total through August 23rd is 53.75".  This is already over the normal total for an entire year.  And, this is currently 19.41" above the long range normal trend.  Summer 2013 has had 19.08" which is 7.56" above normal.  The long range 90 day outlook for rainfall has the Tennessee Valley in the category of having equal chances of near to above normal rainfall.

The record wettest year in Chattanooga is 1994 with 73.70".  It could be a close call by the end of 2013 if that record is topped!

BUCKETS OF RAIN = COOLER SUMMER TEMPS

Summer 2013 has been cooler than average because of the rain.  So far, the average temperature since June 1 has been 1.03 degrees below normal.  Most noticeable has been August so far with temperatures 2.5 degrees below normal.  The hottest temperature so far this Summer has been 94 which occurred on June 12th & July 17th.  This is a far cry from Summer 2012 when the mercury topped 100 or higher during 7 days. 

HOTTER DAYS LEADING UP TO LABOR DAY

Well, finally, a stretch of Summer temperatures leading up to the Labor Day weekend.  Shower chances should finally drop off.  So, with added sun and high pressure building in, temperatures should heat back up into the 90s.  And, for a change, be above normal.
The 6-10 day temperature outlook puts the TN Valley in a rare category for Summer 2013.  That would be "Above Normal Temperatures" to round out late August and into the start of September.

David Glenn




Below Average July

08/01/13

If you though this summer wasn't as hot as usual... well you're right. With the month of July behind us we can look back at the numbers and see how much cooler it actually was.

The average high during the month of July is 90 degrees here in Chattanooga. During the entire month of July, we only hit 90 degrees on eight different occasions. That means 23 days had below average highs. Conversely, the average low in July is 70 degrees. Twenty dates in July had temperatures at or above average for the lows. So the cooler afternoons were offset by the warmer mornings.

Putting everything together, highs and lows combined, 19 of the 31 days in July had below average temperatures causing the month to be 2.1 below average. Although it doesn't sound like much, compared to the string of days over 100 last summer, we'll take any summer relief we can get!!!

Jason Disharoon




July Continues Below Average Temperature Trend

07/26/13

July 2013 has been a totally different from July 2012 as temperatures have remained below average compared to the scorching temperatures of 2012.

With just days to go before the end of the month, the average temperature for July 2013 is 78.3 which is 1.6 degrees below average.  July 2012 had an average temperature of 82.9 which was 2.9 degrees above average.  That is a 4.6 degree difference, and we did not have any temperatures 100 or above!

This trend should continue for the last remaining days of July as another round of below normal temperatures settles in late during the weekend and into early next week.  The cold front moving in should provide some scattered t-showers Saturday, followed by some cooler & drier air for Sunday and Monday.  Daily highs should only average in the low/mid 80s.  Morning lows by Monday morning could drop all the way to near 60 with some 50s possible at higher elevations and areas away from the city.  Monday looks dry with mid 80s again.  Scattered showers and storms could return for the last day of the month on Wednesday which again should hold afternoon highs below normal.

Getting below normal temperatures for July is one thing, but then comes August.  The heat of August can be just as oppressive as July.  Typically, an average August for Chattanooga has an average temperature of 79.4 which is equal to an average daily high of 89 and a low of 69.  August 2013 should get off to a hot start with low 90s for the first couple of days of the month and into the weekend of August 3rd.

However, one of the longer range August outlooks still projects a below normal temperature trend for the East and Southeast US which includes the Tennessee Valley.
The image attached to this blog entry shows the Climate Forecast System (CFS) Model projection for August.

David Glenn

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - July Continues Below Average Temperature Trend


Better T-Shower Chances Developing

07/19/13

The weekend and early next week should have better scattered t-shower chances for the Tennessee Valley.

WEEKEND T-SHOWERS

Though not the all day variety and not like July 4th, the weekend should have better chances overall for scattered t-showers.  Saturday should have a mix of sun and clouds and temperatures back near 90 through the afternoon.  A better chance for afternoon and evening t-showers can be expected.  This is due to a combination of an increasing southerly flow from the Gulf and the slow approach of a cool front from the northwest.

For Sunday, the coverage of showers and storms increases a bit as the cool front moves in closer.  Fronts move much slower this time of year.  The heating of the day (afternoon) should have the best chances for showers & storms.  With more cloud cover, the afternoon highs should stay in the 80s.

Due to the slow movement of the front, the increased chance for scattered t-showers could continue into Monday and early Tuesday.  Because of the deep Gulf moisture involved, a few slow moving t-showers could produce some heavy rainfall.  Daily highs should remain in the upper 80s through Tuesday.

TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN RETURNS

A typical late July pattern returns for mid to late week.  Daily highs returning to the low 90s and  Heat Index climbing back close to 100.  Each day should carry a chance for a few afternoon & evening pop up t-showers.  Otherwise, partly sunny each day.

EARLY LOOK AT WINTER?

Just a chilly thought on these hot days.  The early model runs of the CFS model are hinting at below normal temperatures for the East and Southeast on average for December through February.  So, the hints are there that a chilly winter could be on the horizon.  Of course it's early and model runs can change, but it's worth keeping an eye on during the months ahead.

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




The Weekend Outlook

07/12/13

The weekend ahead should be a nice change of pace from last weekend's washout.

SOME SUN & SOME PM T-SHOWERS

A fairly typical July weekend forecast for the Tennessee Valley.  Temperatures Saturday morning should be comfortable in the mid/upper 60s.  But, the afternoon should heat up quickly to the mid/upper 80s.  Skies should be partly sunny overall.  An "upper level" low over the Midwest should back up and move toward the west.  This should bring some cooling aloft which along with afternoon heating could allow for the developing of some pop up thundershowers during the afternoon and evening hours.  Mainly on a scattered basis during the afternoon and evening.

Any t-showers should quickly diminish during the evening.  Sunday should be similar with a mix of clouds and sun with again some afternoon and evening scattered t-showers as that upper low continues to drift west.  By Monday, the upper low should have traveled far enough to the west and lose its influence on our weather.  Therefore, only a slight chance for a t-shower Monday afternoon.

HOT & HUMID NEXT WEEK

The typical heat and humidity of July begins to creep back in next week.  Daily high temperatures should reach the low 90s and morning lows in the low 70s.  Each day will carry a slight chance for a pop up afternoon t-shower, but otherwise partly sunny.  Heat Index values could reach the mid/upper 90s as humidity levels increase.

David Glenn




A Break From The Heavy Rain

07/08/13

Finally.....a break from the widespread heavy rain.  Scattered afternoon & evening showers still remain, and that coverage could increase again by Wednesday.

Let's take a look at the rainfall stats for Lovell Field in Chattanooga.  Since July 1st, the total so far is 6.20".  Just the weekend alone provided 4.31".  Since the start of the year, the total is 45.34" which is now 17.23" above average.  This time last year it was very dry and we were at 7" below average.  So, we have nearly double the amount of rainfall that we had at this point last year.

So, finally, a little bit of a break from the rain.  But, with so much ground moisture and moisture in the air, daytime heating is easily causing some afternoon & evening showers/storms to develop.  While mostly non severe, these showers are slow moves and could have heavy downpours just aggravating the already flood threat that exists.  The pattern Tuesday remains about the same with mainly afternoon t-showers.

By Wednesday, a cool front approaches which should create a better coverage of showers and thunderstorms yet again.  The slow moving front should also create a good coverage of showers and storms Thursday.  Rainfall amounts should not be as high as the past weekend.  However, because the ground is saturated, a somewhat of a flood risk remains in place and bears watching.

By the weekend, there will still be the chance for at least from afternoon t-showers, but otherwise a mix of clouds and sun each day.  Daily highs should be in the upper 80s.  What we'll have to keep an eye on is where TS Chantal goes.  Most model data shows Chantal affecting Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, then possibly weakening to a tropical depression over south Florida.  The reason we have to watch this is because the overall upper level flow locally remains from the southeast.  So, should a trough develop over the Southeast as some model suggest, it could tap into some of that "Chantal" moisture and up our local rain chances into next week.  But......it's still early and we will continue to keep an eye on the pattern.  As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Heavy Rain Threat This Week

07/01/13

The threat of heavy rain is possible in the Tennessee Valley right through Independence Day.

We have already had a taste of the developing wet pattern over the past 24 hours.  Slow moving thunderstorms that can produce upwards of 1"-2" of rain per hour.  And, the pattern could get even wetter heading into Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

A slow moving low pressure system produced the rain and thunderstorms locally from Sunday night through Monday.  By Wednesday, the upper level pattern changes and puts the Tennessee Valley into an even wetter pattern.  High pressure over the western Atlantic will shift west through Thursday.  This will put our region under an increasing southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico.  This pattern combined with another slow moving low pressure system moving across the local region means periods of heavy rain will be possible.

Latest computer model projections have possible rainfall amounts between 3"-4".  The GFS model projects just over 5" locally from Tuesday morning through Saturday morning.  This model projects the bulk of that rain moving in on Independence Day Thursday.  Some thunderstorms will accompany the periods of rain.  A few of the storms could become severe with damaging wind gusts and hail.  However, the threat of tornadoes is very low with this type of pattern.

The greatest threat from this pattern is the risk of flash flooding.  Please remember this rhyme...Turn around, down drown.  Keep that in mind when attempting to cross a washed out roadway.  Just 1 ft of moving water can move a car.  In other words, the tires do not even have to be fully submerged for moving water to move a car.  If you live in a flood prone area, please be already thinking ahead of where you would go for safety should flood waters threaten.

As always, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team for updates!

David Glenn




The Outlook For The Last Weekend Of June

06/28/13

June has flown by and the last weekend of the month will have a little bit of a break from the heat.

An upper level flow from the west-northwest should help ease the oppressive heat and humidity that we have had lately.  Saturday should be partly sunny with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 80s (low 80s mountains).  A steady breeze from the WNW should also help to keep humidity levels a little lower.  There will still be a slight chance for a few pop up showers during the peak heating of the day but fewer than the past several days.  Saturday night should be comfortable as overnight temperatures drop into the mid 60s (low 60s north and mountains)

Sunday should have more clouds mixing in with the sunshine.  And, there should be a better chance for afternoon & evening t-showers to develop.  Afternoon temperatures should stay in the mid 80s (around 80 mountains).  Any t-showers that do develop should eventually fade out Sunday evening.

The Independence Day week could get off to a bit of a soggy start.  A more humid pattern settles into the Tennessee Valley and Southeast.  This means a mix of sun and clouds each day.  The chance for scattered showers/storms should increase as well.  And, this chance for scattered t-showers will not just be the "pop up afternoon" variety.  Instead, this chance for showers and storms could occur at any time of the day on an "off and on" basis.  So while all day rainfall is not expected, you need to expect that some interruptions in outdoor activities will be possible from time to time through most of next week and into Independence Day.

Daily highs should stay in the mid 80s and morning lows in the mid/upper 60s.  As always, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team!

David Glenn




Severe Storms Possible Friday

06/27/13

Strong to possibly severe storms are possible Friday across the Tennessee Valley

A persistent upper level flow from the northwest will continue to push some disturbances across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast US through Friday evening.  This could again create the chance for scattered thunderstorms to develop.  Some of the storms could reach severe levels with damaging wind gusts and large hail possible.  The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined a large area of the Southeast including the Tennessee Valley into the "Slight Risk" zone for the possibility of severe storms. (See maps below)

Beyond the general "Slight Risk", the second map shows that a slightly better chance of severe storms could occur to our west over north Alabama and Mississippi with a 30% probability with a 15% probability elsewhere.  This represents the coverage of "severe" storms.  Even if some storms do not reach severe levels you can still expect the possibility of heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts and small hail.

As always, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team for updates!

David Glenn

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Severe Storms Possible Friday WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Severe Storms Possible Friday


6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook

06/24/13

The latest 6-10 day precipitation outlook

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook


The First Weekend Of Summer

06/21/13

Welcome to Summer!

A typical Summer pattern can be expected for the Tennessee Valley through the weekend and early next week.

Saturday should again be partly sunny with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 80s close to 90 degrees.  Humidity levels should begin to increase as well which could create Heat Index values in the lower 90s.  Like the past few days, a few pop up t-showers could occur during the afternoon and early evening hours.  Any showers and storms that do develop should diminish after sunset.

Please remember lightning safety during your outdoor activities throughout the weekend.  Keep this rhyme in mind....."When thunder roars, go indoors".  Use the 30/30 rule as well.  Wait "30 minutes" since the last clap of thunder before resuming outdoor activities.  And/or...be able to count "30" seconds between lightning flash and resulting clap of thunder.

Sunday should be about the same with a partly sunny sky and temperatures back in the upper 80s to near 90.  Expect a slightly better chance of scattered showers and storms by Sunday afternoon and evening.  Still on a scattered basis, so not everywhere.  By Monday, again a better chance of showers and storms can be expected into the afternoon and evening hours.

The remainder of next week looks typical for this time of year with a mix of sun and clouds each day and highs nearing 90.  Each afternoon runs a slight chance of pop up afternoon and evening t-showers.

As always, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team for updates!

David Glenn




A Typical Pattern As Summer As Summer Rolls In!

06/18/13

Summer officially begins early Friday morning at 1:04amET.  And, right on schedule, a typical Summer pattern can be expected for the Tennessee Valley.

2013 RAIN GAUGE CHECK

You don't need me to tell you that it has been a wet year so far.  It is a complete "180" from the drought conditions of 2012.  Since January 1st, the rainfall total at Lovell Field in Chattanooga stands at 38.46" which is 13.30" above average.  For June, the total is at 3.79", which is 1.45" above average.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN

After a couple of muggy, unsettled days to start the work week, a more stable pattern moves in for Wednesday.  Some slightly drier air ushered in by a light northerly wind will help reduce the number of showers across the local region.  With more sunshine, expect afternoon temperatures to quickly rise into the upper 80s.

TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN FOLLOWS

A typical late June, early Summer pattern settles in for late week and the weekend.  And, it's right on schedule for the first day of Summer!  Partly sunny each day from Thursday through Sunday with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90.  Morning lows mostly in the upper 60s.  And, each afternoon will run the chance for mainly some pop up afternoon/evening variety of t-showers.

David Glenn




Weekend Outlook

06/13/13

Drier & slightly cooler conditions settle in Friday to start the weekend, but the afternoons will once again be heating up through Sunday.

A NICE DROP IN HUMIDITY

After the passage of the cold front through Thursday night, drier and slightly cooler air should filter into the Tennessee Valley.  Temperatures to begin the day Friday should be in the low/mid 60s.  You should be able to notice the lower humidity levels throughout the day Friday.  Afternoon temperatures should not be as hot, only reaching the mid 80s.  Expect a lot of sunshine throughout the day.

The dry air in place should help create comfortable conditions through Friday night and Saturday morning.  Mostly 70s and comfortable for Riverbend Friday night.  Then, expect temperatures to dip to near 60 Saturday morning (Some 50s possible in outlying areas and mountains).  Conditions look ideal for the Riverbend Run 5K/10K downtown at 8am with race conditions in the low/mid 60s.  Temperatures will heat up through Saturday afternoon with upper 80s.  The closing night of Riverbend looks nice with a fair sky and 80s through the early evening, and upper 70s by fireworks time!

Sunday should be a little hotter and more humid with a partly sunny sky and afternoon temperatures reaching near 90.  There is a chance for an afternoon t-shower Sunday, but a better chance possible later into Sunday night

T-SHOWERS RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

Scattered showers and storms look to continue for Monday and Tuesday as another system slides through the Ohio Valley.  The trailing cold front swings our way providing the chance of storms both days.  Drier and seasonably hot conditions for the remainder of the week.  Daily highs look to stay in the upper 80s and morning lows in the upper 60s.

David Glenn




Severe Storms Possible Thursday

06/11/13

Severe storms with damaging wind and hail possible Thursday.  The combination of heat and humidity and an approaching cold front will give the Tennessee Valley the chance for experiencing strong thunderstorms during the day Thursday.  With such high heat in advance of the front, some of the storms could produce strong, damaging wind gusts.  Large hail is also possible.  A much greater threat of severe storms will exists to our north over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.  However, the trailing cold front with this system will present us the chance of storms from the morning hours and into the afternoon.  As always, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team to keep you updated.  Please be sure to check the batteries in your NOAA Weather Alert Radios.  If you need your county code to program your radio, click this link.........(David Glenn)




First Weekend of Riverbend

06/07/13

It's Riverbend time again!  Chattanooga's own official kickoff to the summer season!

TYPICAL JUNE PATTERN

After a wet start to the festival Friday evening, the shower chances look a little lower Saturday.  Morning clouds giving way to a mix of sun and clouds through the afternoon.  Temperatures should reach the mid/upper 80s.  A few pop up t-showers are possible during the afternoon and evening, but fewer in number than what we had Friday.  So, Riverbend activities Saturday evening could have some pop up showers around, but otherwise a nice evening with a partly cloudy sky and 80s during the early evening, then 70s later on.

Sunday could have a slightly better chance for scattered t-showers late in the day and into the evening.  Most of the day should exhibit a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures in the mid/upper 80s.  Again, by late afternoon and evening, some pop up t-showers are possible. But, a better coverage later in the night and into Monday morning.

BETTER T-SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY

The new work week should begin with a better chance for scattered t-showers.  High temperatures held down a bit because of the added cloud cover with low 80s.  This could affect activities for the Bessie Smith Strut Monday evening.  The thundershower chances should wind down later Monday night.

HEATING UP NEXT WEEK

Afternoon highs should approach the upper 80s by mid/late week.  Rain chances mainly back to the typical pop up variety afternoon t-showers that are common this time of year.  In other words, typical Riverbend weather for early to mid June.

The StormTrack 9 Team will have live weather updates from the festival site each night!

David Glenn




The First Weekend Of June!

05/31/13

May is over and this weekend kicks off the start of June!

MAY 2013 LOCAL WEATHER STATS

May will end up as a much wetter and slightly cooler month locally.  Total rainfall was 7.19" which was 3.22 inches above average.  The wettest 24 hour period was on May 4th-5th with 3.70", though some areas locally had much more (5"-6"+).  The average temperature for the month will end up just a tad below normal at 67.8.  The warmest afternoon was on the 21st with 89 degrees and the coolest morning was a chilly 43 on the 13th.

PM T-SHOWERS RETURN SATURDAY

A weakening cool front approaches the Tennessee Valley slowly from the west.  This should help spark a slightly better chance of mainly afternoon and evening t-showers Saturday.  The pattern for Saturday should not be an all day washout, so when afternoon showers are not occurring, expect a mix of sun and clouds with mid/upper 80s.  While the risk of a widespread severe storm outbreak remains low, there is a chance for a few isolated strong storms that could produce damaging wind gusts and hail.  As always, you can depend on us for updates.

Be sure to check out our StormTrack 9 Zoom Radar before heading outside this weekend.
Click Here for the Zoom Radar

BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCE SUNDAY

More outdoor activities could be affected Sunday.  The cool front settles across the Tennessee Valley Sunday.  This means that off and on periods of showers and storms can be expected at any given time during the day.  Model data is even showing that some showers could move in prior to sunrise. 

Rainfall amounts could average from 0.75" to 1.50".  Amounts vary due to the scattered nature of the storms with heavier rainfall. 

Most showers and storms should end very late Sunday night and into Monday morning.

DRY FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK

The first full week of June looks pretty nice!  Monday should be cloudy to begin with an even a few early morning showers, but some sun should return by afternoon with low 80s.  Tuesday through Thursday looks sunny to partly sunny with mid/upper 80s each day and comfortable low 60s each morning.  A few mainly late day t-showers could return by next Friday and Saturday.

David Glenn




Early Summer-Like Pattern

05/27/13

May's temperatures have averaged just a little below normal, but the last few days of the month should feel like the heart of summer.

A LITTLE MORE HUMID EACH DAY

High pressure anchored off the Outer Banks of North Carolina will keep the Tennessee Valley in a warm pattern for most of the week.  The southerly wind flow will slow cause a gradual rise in humidity levels each day.  So, as afternoon temperatures daily reach the upper 80s, it start to feel like the lower 90s when you factor the Heat Index.  This should be the same pattern through at least Saturday.  Morning lows should average in the mid 60s and start to feel muggier by the start of the weekend.

ONLY "POP UP" T-SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY

With the slight rise in humidity each day, the slight chance exists for a few pop up t-showers to develop.  However, the chances are small each day through Thursday and nothing widespread across the region.

T-SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND

The upcoming weekend does not appear to be nearly as perfect as this past weekend.  A muggier pattern should be in place locally.  This, along with a slow moving cool front closing in should help spark a better chance for scattered showers and storms.  The better chance for Saturday and Sunday being during the afternoon and evening hours. 

The front could stall over our viewing area Sunday and into Monday resulting in a more widespread coverage of showers and storms.  Most of the longer range forecast models are in agreement with this pattern setup (GFS, ECMWF, CMC).  So, we will keep an eye on this pattern in the days ahead and of course have updates.

David Glenn




A Beautiful Memorial Day Weekend

05/24/13

Finally....a beautiful weekend on tap for the Tennessee Valley!

NEAR RECORD CHILL SATURDAY MORNING

A very cool start for the holiday weekend.  Temperatures could come very close to tying or breaking a record low.  Temperatures by Saturday morning should dip to the mid/upper 40s in most areas.  A few of the usual cold spots north could dip to near 40.  The record low for Chattanooga is 46 from 1942.  So, it will be close!

WARMER AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND

The mornings might be cool, but each afternoon should be gradually warmer.  Sunshine and low humidity for Saturday afternoon with a high temperature in the mid/upper 70s, but only low 70s mountains.  It should not be as windy Saturday.  Cool again for Sunday morning with upper 40s, then a mix of clouds and sun with an afternoon high in the upper 70s to near 80 (70s mountains).

By Memorial Day, a southerly wind develops which should continue the warming trend.  Overall again a mix of clouds and sun and just a little more humid with afternoon temperatures in the low/mid 80s.  Only a small chance for a pop up shower during the afternoon and evening,

HEATING UP NEXT WEEK

After the cool mornings this weekend, expect a huge warm up next week to close out May.  Afternoon temperatures should start reaching the mid/upper 80s Tuesday through Friday.  And, each day should be a little more humid.  This could lead to a slightly better chance for some pop variety afternoon/evening t-showers, but nothing widespread.

Have a terrific, but very safe weekend!  Please remember why we honor Memorial Day and remember the brave men and women that gave the ultimate sacrifice for our country.

David Glenn




Weekend Showers & Storms

05/17/13

The weekend is approaching, so naturally showers and t-showers plan on visiting the Tennessee Valley!

CHECK OUT THE STORM TRACK 9 ZOOM RADAR

Before you head outdoors this weekend, be sure to check out the StormTrack 9 Zoom radar.  You can track rain, storms & temperatures right to your neighborhood.  Click Here for the Zoom Radar

T-SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING

A slow moving upper level low will approach the Tennessee Valley Friday providing higher humidity, more clouds and eventually more scattered t-showers.  The coverage of showers and some thunderstorms increases especially into the heating of the day on Friday.  So, most numerous during the afternoon and evening hours.  While an isolated storm or two could be strong, the risk of widespread severe weather remains low.

Unlike a summer pattern when showers typically fade out at night, scattered t-showers will remain a possibility through Friday night.  Again, mainly on a scattered basis.  So, not everywhere at the same time.

The upper level low will continue to slowly move through the viewing area Saturday.  This means periodic showers and t-storms.  There is just no way of being able to specify exactly when and where each t-showers will occur.  So, as you plan outdoor activities for Saturday, be aware that all areas locally have an equal chance of periodic showers/storms at any given time.  Otherwise, when showers are not occurring, skies will be cloudy with afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80.

A few strong thunderstorms are possible Saturday, but again the chance of widespread severe storms remains low.  Right now the main threat looks like, heavy downpours, wind gusts and occasional lightning.  As always you can depend on us for updates.  Rainfall amounts Friday through early Sunday could average up to 1".  But, due to the scattered nature of storms, some areas could have more while others less.  The moisture rich air could allow for some thunderstorm to produce heavier downpours of 1"-2".

By Sunday, the upper level low is projected to continue moving east which could start to reduce the periods of showers and storms.  The chance could be higher if the "low" stalls.  So, we will be closely watching this pattern and continue to provide updates.  If the low does move east, then more sun is possible Sunday and fewer t-showers.

HEATING UP NEXT WEEK

This summer-like pattern should continue into next week.  Afternoon highs could reach the upper 80s and even as high as "90" in spots on Monday and Tuesday.  Each day runs a slight chance of pop up afternoon t-showers, but a better chance possible Wednesday.

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




A Summer Like Pattern

05/14/13

May has been cooler than average locally so far, but a taste of summer heat settles in over the next few days.

MAY 2013 BELOW AVERAGE SO FAR

No surprise to anyone that the first half of May has had temperatures below average levels.  The average temperature so far is 62 degrees which is 4.2 degrees below average.  The average temperature for the month should rise quite a bit in the days ahead as above average warmth settles in.

SUMMER LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING

The huge warm up started Tuesday as afternoon temperatures approached the 80 degree mark.  But, by Wednesday, the heat continues to build with mid 80s possible at most valley locations and near 80 on the mountain tops.  Afternoon temperatures should average in the mid 80s through the end of the week and into the weekend.  But, some upper 80s will be possible as well.

The humidity levels will also start to rise starting Wednesday.  And, like a summer pattern, this could lead to some pop up afternoon and evening t-showers, especially by Thursday.  A similar pattern Friday as a small disturbance rolls through the Tennessee Valley.  This could mean more cloud cover and some pop up t-showers from time to time.  However, unlike the wet patterns lately, this will not be all that widespread.

SIMILAR WEEKEND PATTERN

A better chance of scattered t-showers could linger from Friday and into Saturday.  Though it does not appear to be an all day variety of rain, be aware that some t-showers popping up could delay an outdoor activity, otherwise partly cloudy and near 80 Saturday.  A little more sun and few afternoon t-showers Sunday with highs back in the mid 80s.

David Glenn




Mother's Day Weekend Outlook

05/10/13

The Mother's Day weekend should not be anything like last weekend.  Some scattered showers are possible Saturday, but Sunday looks cooler and drier.

SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY

A slow moving cool front should keeps skies cloudy over the Tennessee Valley Saturday.  Some scattered showers and even a t-shower will result.  But, unlike last weekend, this does not appear to be an all day wash out.  Instead, mainly scattered in nature.  Otherwise, expect a cloudy sky and breezy at times with low 70s through the afternoon.  While some t-showers are possible, the risk of severe weather remains very low.  Widespread heavy rain is not expected.

Click Here for the StormTrack 9 Zoom Radar

By Saturday night, most showers that remain should taper off.  Also, a little cooler with an overnight low in the low 50s as a northwest breeze ushers in some drier and cooler air.

BREEZY & COOLER MOTHER'S DAY

Sunday, Mother's Day, should begin cloudy and even some sprinkles leftover in spots.  However, skies should become partly sunny through midday and the afternoon.  A brisk northwest wind at 10-20mph will help hold afternoon temperatures in the 60s.

A BIT CHILLY MONDAY & TUESDAY MORNING

This latest round of cooler and drier air should provide the local viewing area with some chilly mornings.  Expect lows in the low 40s Monday morning which could mean even some upper 30s in the usual colder local spots.  Some isolated patchy frost in those spots as well.  Same conditions again for Tuesday morning.

A DRY START TO THE WEEK

Even though the morning's will be chilly, the afternoons should be sunny and warm.  Upper 60s to near 70 Monday, then back to the upper 70s Tuesday.  The warming trend continues through the week with low 80s Wednesday and Thursday with morning temperatures in the 50s.

A few late day t-showers are possible both Thursday and Friday, but otherwise a mix of sun and clouds both days with highs in the low 80s.

As usual, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Better Shower Chances By Friday, But A Longer Dry Spell Could Be On The Way

05/08/13

Some isolated t-showers have dotted the radar screen the past few days, but a better coverage returns for Friday and Saturday.  However, a longer period of dry weather could be on the horizon.

WARMER THURSDAY

Thursday looks warmer under a partly sunny sky.  Afternoon highs should reach the low 80s at most valley locations (70s mountains).  Like the past few afternoons, there is a slight chance for a few pop up showers through the early evening.

BETTER T-SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY & SATURDAY

A storm system approaches the Tennessee Valley from the west on Friday.  This means more cloud cover for Friday along with an increasing coverage of showers and t-showers, especially through the afternoon.  Some thunder, but the overall risk of severe weather remains low with this system.  Afternoon temperatures should reach the mid/upper 70s on Friday.

The shower chances continue for Saturday on an "off and on" basis.  This should not be like last Saturday.  Rainfall amounts Friday into Saturday could average between 0.75"- 1.15" across the local viewing area.  So, not as heavy as last weekend.  Afternoon temperatures on Saturday in the low 70s.  The coverage of showers and t-showers appears to slack off through Saturday night and early Sunday morning.

DRIER & COOLER MOTHER'S DAY

It looks like we could salvage at least one half of the weekend on Sunday.  Forecast models project the storm system to move east of the Tennessee Valley by early Sunday.  So, morning clouds could give way to a partly sunny sky by afternoon.  Cooler air moves in as well with afternoon temperatures mostly in the 60s and temperatures Sunday night dipping into the low 40s.

COOLER START TO NEXT WEEK, BUT DRY FOR A WHILE.....FINALLY!

Mornings could again be a bit chilly early next week with low 40s Monday and Tuesday morning.  A few of the usual cold spots around the Tennessee Valley could dip briefly into the upper 30s.  But, it should be dry.  60s for highs Monday, then 70s Tuesday and near 80 by Wednesday.  The dry pattern could stick around all the way through Friday of next week!

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Flooding Concerns For The Weekend

05/03/13

Continuous periods of rain through the weekend could lead to flooding problems around the Tennessee Valley

SLOW MOVING SYSTEM

The "upper low" moving across the Southeast is a slow mover almost cut off from the upper level wind flow.  This system should set up an alley way of rainfall stretching from the Gulf and right through the Tennessee Valley.  The continuous nature of the rain could lead to some impressive rainfall totals for Saturday through Monday.  The threat of severe storms remains low,so the main concern is the risk of flooding.

Temperatures will also be quite cool with daytime temperatures only in the upper 50s to near 60 both Saturday and Sunday with morning lows in the upper 40s to near 50.

Be sure to use our StormTrack 9 Zoom Radar to track the rain and temperatures in your neighborhood.

COMPUTER MODEL FORECASTS

Here is a look at some of the local rainfall totals from the various computer forecast models from Saturday morning through Monday evening.

GFS (US) Model:  2.50"

NAM (US) Model: 3.68"

ECMWF (European) Model: 3.75"-4.00"

WTVC Microcast Model: 3.56"

This places the average amount between 3"-5", but as is always the case in heavy rainfall events, there could be some isolated spots with higher amounts.

FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT

No surprise that a Flood Watch is in effect for our entire viewing area through Monday morning.  This "Watch" could be elevated to a "Warning" at some point during the weekend.  As always, you can depend on StormTrack 9 for updates.

Please remember this flooding safety rhyme..."Turn around, don't drown".  When approaching a flooded area, please do not try to cross the rising waters.  It takes only 6 inches of moving water to sweep a person off their feet.  It takes only 12 inches of moving water to move an automobile.  In other words, the tires don't even have to be fully submerged for a car to be pushed by raging flood waters.

DRIER & WARMER NEXT WEEK

The slow moving upper low should push away by early next week bringing an end to the rain by late Monday.  Drier and warmer conditions should return for Tuesday through Thursday.  Afternoon highs should return to the 70s with morning lows in the 50s.

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Rain Chances On The Horizon

05/01/13

Clouds returned as we kicked off the month of May.  Eventually, the clouds will yield some raindrops.

APRIL 2013 LOCAL WEATHER STATS

No surprise at all that April 2013 was wetter than average in Chattanooga.  The total rainfall at Lovell Field was 9.09" which was 5.10" above average.  The wettest day was the 28th with 1.87" of rain.  Temperatures averaged out to be "normal" with the average temperature of 60.5 degrees.  The warmest day was on the 17th with 85 degrees.  The coldest morning was 3 days later on the 20th with 37 degrees.  Since the hot July of 2012, 7 of the past 9 months have had at or below average temperatures.

WARM THROUGH FRIDAY

Cloud cover should not stop seasonal temperatures.  Daily highs should still average in the mid 70s Thursday and Friday even with the lack of sun.  Morning lows in the upper 50s.  Cooler air moves in for the weekend with daytime temperatures falling back to the 60s.

INCREASING RAIN CHANCES

Rain chances will only slowly creep upward through Friday, then possibly increase quite a bit into Saturday.  On Thursday, there is a slight chance for a passing shower because of a moist southeast wind flow.  Otherwise, expect a cloudy sky with a high in the mid 70s.  By Friday, an upper level "low" and associated cold front will move closer to the Tennessee Valley from the west.  This could increase our local rain chances gradually by late Friday and into Friday night.

Due to the slow movement of the "upper low", rain chances could increase and linger for Saturday and Sunday.  Temperatures should also cool quite a bit with mornings in the low 50s and afternoons possibly only low 60s Saturday and mid/upper 60s Sunday.

Forecast model data is starting to indicate that some heavy downpours could occur at times late Saturday and into Saturday night.  The GFS model is most robust with over 2" indicated, but the European Model (ECMWF) is not quite as heavy with around 1.3".  Either way, a solid area of rain possible.  And, with the already saturated ground, some flooding issues could again be a concern over the weekend.

Forecast models could change a bit in the days ahead and that could change both the timing and amount of rain locally.  It's all due to the slow movement of the system.  As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Anniversary of the April 27th, 2011 Tornado Outbreak

04/25/13

2nd Anniversary of the April 27th, 2011 Tornado Outbreak

On the night of April 26th, 2011, I was having dinner with my family.  My wife knew that I had been concerned for days about the upcoming weather pattern for the next day.  She asked me, "what does your gut tell you?".  I told her, "it's the same as I felt the day before Hurricane Katrina.....this system could be very bad".  She knew I was serious.  When I worked in Mobile, AL, she and my sons had to evacuate north 3 times in one year due to the strong hurricanes of 2004-2005.  Hurricane Katrina being the worst.  She knew that we could not really evacuate for something like this. So, we spent the length of our dinner discussing the safety plan for our house and made sure my sons were clear on what to do.  Likewise, the bulk of my broadcast time that Tuesday night was spent urging viewers to do the same.  Be Prepared and Stay Alert!

Meteorologists can get a gauge of the "potential" energy within a developing storm system by looking at various computer model indices.  One such equation or index is called the SWEAT index which stands for "Severe Weather Threat" index.  It takes into account the stability of the atmosphere and the wind profile.  A SWEAT index of over 400 means that supercell storms are likely with some that could produce strong tornadoes.  The projected SWEAT index for April 27th was 527!  I had never seen this before.  Two different computer model runs on April 26th yielded totals above 500.  I then emailed my boss, Tom Henderson, to give him a brief on my thoughts for the next day.  I told him exactly what I told my wife..."I have never seen anything like this before locally and it could be very bad".  I closed the email with this quote..."I hope I am wrong".  If there was ever a forecast when I wanted to be wrong, it was this one.

The next day saw our weather team stay on the air continuously for nearly 18 hours.  Only having a short 15 minute break after 1pm.  Bill Race had done a tremendous job during the morning hours.  It was like watching an aerial assault unfold.  A literal conveyor belt of supercells constantly moving in from the southwest.  I cannot tell you how many times we said "hunker down" or "get to your safe place"....for you can never say it enough in this type of situation.  Jason Disharoon and I spent those long hours analyzing those storms right down to street level to be as detailed as possible on what areas could be affected.  Often times there would be several warnings in effect at the same time.  Our newsroom staff likewise worked the same long hours gathering information from across the viewing area.  Some out in the elements covering the damage as storms continued to move through.

At 6pm I sent a text to my wife urging her to get to the basement as yet another supercell was sprinting toward downtown Chattanooga and our house on Missionary Ridge.  I received a reply from her stating..."OK, we are in the basement".  30 minutes later, Tom Henderson motioned for me to step off camera and for Jason to take over.  Tom told me that he had just received a phone call from my neighbor that a tree had struck our house.  I knew immediately which tree it was.  It was the huge oak tree in my neighbor's yard that had a natural lean toward my house.  I immediately called my wife and with each ring I kept saying "pick up...pick up...pick up".  She finally answered in a chipper voice and said "hey".  I said, "are you all ok?".  She assured me that they were fine, but she knew nothing about the tree.  They had heard nothing.  I asked her to take a look upstairs and upon getting there she confirmed that the tree had indeed sideswiped the house puncturing the roof.  She said that the house was still fine, but leaking.  I wanted to go home and check on them, but she told me that they would be okay and to keep broadcasting.  It was a brief sense of relief, because I knew that the storms continued to rage and lives were at risk.

It was truly painful watching these monster storms roll over our local communities.  We kept pleading for folks to get to safety and take these warnings seriously.  With each passing storm we were getting the dreadful news of damage and injuries.  And, it only escalated through the night.  The last Tornado Warning expired shortly after midnight.  We then broadcasted our normal 11pm newscast at that time.  I sat at the news desk with Kim and Calvin.  We rolled on some raw video of the damage in Ringgold.  They both asked me my thoughts.  I simply could not speak.  Emotionally drained and tears welling up, there were just no words.  Taking a deep breath and gaining my composure I had to get right back to the task of discussing the current radar trends and detailing when all the storms would end.

Our marathon storm coverage ended after 1am.  Time was still spent updating our web site and making sure every square mile of our viewing area was out of danger.  I was finally able to go home around 2am.  It was a silent drive home with periods of trembling lips and tears.  I arrived home to a dark house because of no power.  Everyone was asleep in the den so as to stay together.  I just sat there in the dark watching them all sleep.  For as thankful as I was for their safety, I felt guilty.  I knew that many others were not as fortunate.  I never slept.  

People often ask me what it was like during those long hours of broadcasting that day.  It's a question that is very hard to answer.  Yes, the hours were long and it seemed the storms would never end.  It was an emotionally stressful day as you can imagine as we all felt that way.  It was challenging because so many people were losing power, so we had to explore every avenue possible for people to receive storm warnings (via radio & smart phone).  But, in the end, it was sad.  One of the saddest days of my life.  You have probably heard the term "heavy heart".  Mine felt like an anvil.  People in my hometown area had suffered a devastating blow.  Some lost their homes, while other lost their lives.   

From time to time people will tell me that what we did April 27th saved lives.  While I appreciate those comments I am still reminded of those that did not survive.  How can our coverage be better?  That is a question I challenge myself with constantly.  For as much technology we have available, we can still be better.  One of the most important ways is making sure people are receiving storm warnings.  As I mentioned earlier, the massive loss of electrical power on April 27th was limiting how some people were receiving warnings.  Without a TV, cell phone or radio, some were left without a source of information.  Storm sirens are scarce locally and should only be used as last resort.  Having a NOAA weather alert radio is something I have highly recommended for years.  Just days after the tornado outbreak the StormTrack 9 Team began a campaign of traveling to communities across the Tennessee Valley promoting the use of these potential life saving radios.  Thanks to a partnership with Midland & Walgreens, we have placed thousands of new weather alert radios in homes locally.  A portion of the proceeds has also gone to local charities for tornado relief.  And, one year later, our campaign continues.  As I tell everyone, we cannot control the weather, but we can control how we react to severe weather and being better prepared.  We will continue those efforts in the weeks and months ahead.  It has helped me with the healing process.

Two years later, we will still never forget.  I will never forget seeing the damage first hand as we toured the area.  I will also never forget the resilient spirit of my fellow hometown friends and neighbors.  Those who came armed with chainsaws and volunteered countless hours to clear trees.  Those who cooked hundreds of meals.  Those who helped rebuild.  On April 27th, we witnessed the worst in weather.  On April 28th, we saw the best in humanity.  And we still do today.

David Glenn




Showers For Wednesday and Possibly Again By The Weekend

04/23/13

Clouds and showers return for Wednesday and it still looks like the upcoming weekend could be wet.

SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY

A fast moving system will move north of the Tennessee Valley, but drag a cold front through the viewing area.  This should produce scattered showers gradually during the morning hours, then more numerous during the afternoon.  A few thunderstorms are possible, but the risk of severe storms remains very low.  Projected rainfall amounts do not appear to be that heavy show an average of 0.25"-0.35".

Showers should end Wednesday evening followed by drier and much cooler air Wednesday night as temperatures dip into the lower 40s by early Thursday morning.

DRY & SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY/FRIDAY

After that cool start to Thursday, expect a lot of sunshine and a steady breeze from the north.  This should hold high temperatures in the upper 60s (low/mid 60s mountains).  Cool again Thursday night with low 40s.  Friday should be sunny to begin with followed by increasing clouds with afternoon temperatures eventually warming into the lower 70s.  Cloudy Friday night and a few showers could creep in from the west before sunrise Saturday.

A WET WEEKEND POSSIBLE

It still looks as if the upcoming weekend could be soggy.  A slow moving system should develop over the lower Mississippi Valley and drift west.  This could increase the coverage of rain and a few thunderstorms across the viewing area Saturday and into Sunday.  Early rainfall projections point to amounts that could exceed an inch.  And, if the system slows down we could have some periods of heavy downpours.  Some thunderstorms could occur as well.  Right now, the severe risk remains low and we will continue to keep an eye on that in the days ahead.

David Glenn




A Dry, But Cool Weekend

04/19/13

A chilly start to the weekend, but we should have plenty of sunshine!

PATCHY FROST SATURDAY MORNING

The "average" date for the last frost in Chattanooga is April 14th.  So, we are not too far away from that date.  So, while the frost threat is late season, it's not all that unusual.  Temperatures by Saturday morning could dip into the mid/upper 30s.  That, along with a lighter breeze could allow for the formation of frost in some areas.  So, please be sure to protect your plants from the early morning chill.  It should not be as cold Sunday morning with lows near 40 and fewer areas at risk for frost.

SUNNY SATURDAY

After the "frosty" start, expect a lot of sunshine.  Temperatures by afternoon should reach the mid 60s (upper 50s mountains).  A steady breeze from the north at 5-10mph during the morning, then 10-15mph by afternoon.  Skies should remain clear Saturday night with low temperatures dipping to near 40 (some upper 30s north).

A LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY

Clouds should begin to mix in with the sky cover Sunday.  So, more of a partly sunny day.  Temperatures will still be below average but eventually reach the upper 60s to near 70 valley (60s mountains).  Partly cloudy with low 40s Sunday Night.

NEXT ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY

A mix of clouds and sun for both Monday and Tuesday with afternoon temperatures back in the low 70s.  Only very small rain chances either day.  The next best chance for showers and storms could be very late Tuesday night and into Wednesday.  This could be followed by another cooling trend for Thursday and Friday.

David Glenn




Warm & Breezy Thursday With Storms Returning Early Friday

04/17/13

Temperatures should soar back in the 80s Thursday along with breezy conditions.  A line of showers and possibly strong storms rolls in very late Thursday night and into Friday morning.

80s & WINDY AT TIMES THURSDAY

The Tennessee Valley will be in what is known as the "warm sector" Thursday in advance of a slow moving cold front.  Most of the day should be partly sunny and quite warm with temperatures reaching the low/mid 80s.  The southerly wind will be increasing quite a bit with speeds from 15-20mph and gusty at times during the afternoon.  Thunderstorm chances during the afternoon remain quite low and should not be as active as Wednesday.  That chance should hold off until later Thursday night and into Friday morning.

LINE OF STORMS EARLY FRIDAY

The slow moving cold front should eventually push a line of showers and strong storms into the Tennessee Valley during the predawn hours of Friday and through the hours after sunrise.  Typically with a squall line type of event, the main severe factor is the risk for damaging wind gusts.  While the tornado threat looks low locally, we will continue to keep an eye on that.  Heavy rain and strong wind gusts will be possible during the first half of the day as these storms move through.  As always, you can depend on us for updates through Friday morning.

TURNING MUCH COOLER

After several days of above normal temperatures in the 80s, much cooler air returns starting Friday afternoon.  Once the front passes, temperatures should gradually fall from the 60s to the 50s Friday afternoon along with a WNW breeze.  Skies should slowly clear Friday as temperatures tumble into the low 40s (Dogwood Winter Part II).  Saturday looks sunny, but high temperatures should be held back in the mid 60s.  40s again for Sunday morning, but sunshine through the afternoon with highs nearing 70 (60s mountains).

David Glenn




Warm & Humid Pattern This Week

04/15/13

An almost "summer-like" pattern the next few afternoons as a warm, humid pattern settles in across the Tennessee Valley.

80S MOST AFTERNOONS

The normal daily high temperature in Chattanooga for this week is in the lower 70s.  But, we should have an average daily high from 80-82 Tuesday through Thursday.  Morning lows should also be above average in the low 60s and some light fog each morning.

T-STORMS POPPING UP

With this pattern, there will be the possibility of scattered showers and storms popping up each afternoon and evening.  This chance remains in the scattered category through Thursday.  But, the Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the Tennessee Valley in the "Slight Risk" category for the possibility of severe storms on Tuesday.  A similar pattern for Wednesday and Thursday with mainly scattered afternoon & evening storms, but otherwise a mix of sun and clouds.

BETTER STORM CHANCE FRIDAY WITH COLD FRONT

A slow moving cold front could provide the Tennessee Valley with a better chance and coverage of showers and thunderstorms Friday.  Depending upon the speed of the front, the shower/storm chances could increase as early as the predawn hours of Friday and then continue into the afternoon.  With this type of setup, the chance exists for the possibility that a few storms could be severe.  We will continue to keep an eye on this during the days ahead.

Behind the cold front will be another round of much cooler air - Dogwood Winter conditions for the weekend.  The weekend looks dry with afternoon highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




A Warm & Breezy Pattern....Severe Storms Possible Thursday

04/08/13

After a cold March and a cool start to April, temperatures are finally warming into the 80s.  But, this could be followed by a chance of severe storms Thursday.

WARM & BREEZY

Tuesday and Wednesday should both be warm and breezy as the steady south wind continues to warm the Tennessee Valley.  Cloud cover from time to time with some peeks of sunshine.  High temperatures Tuesday should reach near 80 (70s mountains) and low 80s Wednesday (70s mountains).  The breeze from the south should be between 10-20mph each afternoon.

While no organized chance for rain is expected through Wednesday, an isolated shower cannot be ruled out.

SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY

It is April and this is usually a busy period for the Tennessee Valley in regards to the chance of severe storms.  A slow moving storm system could give our region the chance for some strong to severe storms Thursday.  The timing is still a bit uncertain as there are still some timing differences between the GFS/NAM/ECMWF models.  The GFS is quicker and the ECMWF is slower.  So, right now, the chance of strong to severe storms exists during the Thursday and possibly into early Friday. The GFS model ends the threat by Thursday evening, while the ECMWF prolongs the threat into Friday morning.

Now, this system does not look like April 27th.  But, you should never let down your guard.  All it takes is ONE storm.  Right now it appears the greater threat locally could be from damaging straight line wind within a line of thunderstorms.  But, we always need to be aware of the storm system setup to be watchful for any tornado threat.  It appears the greater threat for that could be over Arkansas and Mississippi, especially Wednesday.

As always, you can depend on us to keep you updated in the days ahead.

David




Super Outbreak of 1974 Anniversary

04/04/13


39 years ago, the worst tornado outbreak of the 20th century struck the Southeastern and Midwestern United States on April 3-4, 1974, bringing 148 tornadoes in 18 hours across the region. Believe it or not, that's not the most astonishing fact from that outbreak. That honor goes to the 30 F4 and F5 tornadoes (classified violent tornadoes) that occured. The national average is 7 per year.

A powerful low pressure system developed across the Great Plains on April 1, 1974. While moving into the Mississippi and Ohio Valley areas, a surge of very moist air intensified the storm further with a very sharp temperature contrast between both sides of the system. By the early afternoon of April 3, severe weather watches and warnings were already in place and while tornadic activity hadn't began, several severe storms with baseball-sized hail pounded Missouri and Illinois.

Just a few hours later, supercells developed quickly and spread over Illinois while another group fromed near the Southern Appalachians in Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee. As the day continued, the activity spread farther to the south with the Ohio River Valley becoming the hardest hit before the system spread into the Cumberland Plateau. Out of all states affected, Tennessee had the most tornadoes from this outbreak with 36.

Many comparissons have been made between that outbreak and the one that struck our area April 27, 2011. That outbreak was part of a larger-scale system that swept across the Eastern US April 25-28, 2011. With 358 confirmed tornadoes, it is the largest tornado outbreak in the nation's history. Of those 358, only 15 were classified as violent tornadoes (EF4 and EF5. The F-scale was replaced with the EF-scale in February 2007). This is only half the number of violent tornadoes from the Super Outbreak of '74. But while there was a smaller number of violent tornadoes in the 2011 outbreak, it doesn't necessarily mean that the even was less significant. By taking into account the path lengths of all violent tornadoes combined per event, the results are much closer. The 1974 Outbreak still remains ahead, but not by much. The total path length in 2011 was 1469 miles compared to 1755 miles in 1974.

While we are coming into what is traditionally the peak of severe weather season; keep in mind these events are almost once in a lifetime events for a region. It is still always a good idea to have your severe weather plan in place before the event.

Make sure you know the difference between a watch and a warning (a watch means conditions are favorable for an event; a warning means either a person or radar has indicated a severe thunderstorm or tornado is actually occuring. Watches tended to be for very large areas and can include several states. Warnings tend to be much smaller and cover only a few counties).

Have a place planned to go in the event of a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning. Have your disaster supply kit stocked and ready to go. Remember, you'll need 1 gallon of water per person per day and it's a good idea to have at least three days supply ready to go with plenty of non-perishable food items. Keep in mind if the power goes out, you'll want to have a hand-operated can opener as well.

 Most importantly though, make sure you have a way to receive weather watches and warnings in a timely manner. We highly recommend a weather radio. Day or night, with or without power to your home, these radios are designed to give you the most advanced warning time so you can get to your safe place with more time to spare before the storm arrives.

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Super Outbreak of 1974 Anniversary


Another Cool Week Ahead but 70s are In Sight!

04/02/13

With the exception of this past Monday, temperatures for the past 10 days or so have been well below average and it appears that trend will carry us through the end of the week. Average highs this time of the year are just shy of the 70 degree mark with the morning average in the middle 40s.

We started last week off with temperatures in the 30s for highs and scattered snow showers around the area. Not what we'd expect for the first few days of spring. Overnights saw 20s and wind chill values in the teens. While we slowly warmed things up, by the end of the week, temperatures were still struggling to get out of the 50s. Over all, we had 12 straight days with below average temperatures.

This week, we appeared to change things around with Mondays high and low being right on track for the average. We topped out at 69 and it was gorgeous, but it didn't last. Highs today barely touched the 60s and tomorrow is only slightly warmer before another rain system pushes in and drops our high temperatures back into the 50s. But there is relief in sight!!

After the cold front passes through Friday, a strong area of high pressure will build in and allow plenty of sunshine and high temperatures back in the 70s for the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday are looking absolutely gorgeous!! And unlike Monday, it looks like these temperatures will stick around for a while. Early next week, 70s will stick around but clouds will slowly start to move back in. It appears a cold front trying to push in will stall out to our north. While we will be close enough for a few showers to pass on through, partly cloudy skies and 70s will remain.

It looks like we've finally turned a corner with Spring-like weather and this next batch of temperatures in the 70s should stick around longer. (Jason Disharoon)




Weekend Outlook & Another Cool Snap Next Week

03/29/13

A warmer pattern heading into Easter Sunday and especially Monday, but another cool snap moves in by Tuesday.

DO YOU REMEMBER MARCH 29, 1997?

During the early morning hours that date (middle of the night), a strong F3 tornado struck parts of Hamilton and Bradley Co. This caused heavy damage around Hamilton Place and East Brainerd.  Apison, Lookout Valley and other spots had damage as well.  Overall 94 people were injured along with $48 million in damage.  I remember that storm well. My wife and I had just been to Hamilton Place a few hours earlier to have our two sons picture made with the Easter Bunny.  I Spent many hours covering the damage in the days that followed. 

WEEKEND SHOWER CHANCES

Saturday still does not appear to be an all day wash out.  With a lot of egg hunts planned, I know there are some anxious kids and parents keeping an eye on the forecast.  Saturday could begin gloomy with some showers around very early.  Shower chances the remainder of the day remain in the slight category as we will be in between systems.  There could be some sun peeking through the clouds at times as well.  Temperatures should warm into the upper 60s.  By late afternoon and evening, a better chance of showers and t-showers should begin to move back in.  Before heading outside Saturday, please be sure and check out the StormTrack 9 Zoom Radar

The better chance for showers and t-showers should occur Saturday night and through the first half of Easter Sunday.  Sunrise on Sunday is at 7:29amET and temperatures should be in the mid 50s.  If you will be attending any outdoor sunrise services you will need a jacket and keep an umbrella handy.  It looks like the better chance for showers and t-showers should end after midday and into the afternoon.  Temperatures should still be warm and reach the upper 60s.

70's AT LEAST FOR A DAY!

Monday should be very warm as once again we will be in between systems.  A southwesterly wind flow and a mix of clouds and sun should allow temperatures to reach the low to possibly mid 70s by afternoon.  However, a cold front approaches late day and should usher in some showers and storms by late day and into Monday night.

MUCH COOLER TUESDAY

Once the cold front passes by, temperatures should rapidly cool off yet again.  But, this cool spell should not be as chilly as what we had earlier this week.  Any showers should end early Tuesday morning.  It should be windy at times with a brisk northwest wind and afternoon temperatures only in the mid 50s.  Temperatures by Tuesday night and Wednesday morning could be frosty with lows in the mid 30s.  60s return for late week and mostly dry until Friday.

TAKING A VACATION

My wife and kids are on Spring Break for next week.  So, likewise, I will be off with them.  We are taking one of those Stay-cations, so I'm sure I will see some of you out and about around town.  Stop by and say hello!  See you on the air next Monday (April 8th).

David Glenn




March 2012 Vs March 2013

03/27/13

What a difference a year makes!  March is always a month typified by ups and downs in weather patterns.  And, comparing the past two March stats, it's quite different.

March 2012 was the warmest March on record in Chattanooga with an average temperature of 62.9 degrees.  The average temperature is an average of the high and low from each day.  March 2012 had 10 days that were 80 or above with the warmest day on the 15th with 86 degrees.  There was only one morning when temperatures were below freezing and that occurred on the 6th with a low of 30.  March 2012 was also a wet month with total rainfall of 5.40" which was 0.42" above average.

March 2013 has been a complete 180 in terms of temperature.  The average temperature so far has only been 46.5 degrees. There have been no days above 80 with the warmest day on the 16th with 77 degrees.  There have been 6 mornings below freezing with the coldest on the 21st with 26 degrees.  It has been slightly drier than average with total rainfall of 3.80" which is 0.50" below average.

March 2013 will be the second month in a row of below average temperatures.  The all time coldest March was in 1960 with an average temperature of 39 degrees.

David Glenn




Milder Afternoons Ahead, But Another Chill Possible Next Week

03/26/13

Milder temperatures can be expected the next few afternoons and into the weekend.  However, another blast of cold air could move our way for next week.

IS THIS THE LATEST WE HAVE HAD SNOW?

Hardly...That question has been asked a lot lately.  We have had several occurrences of snowflakes in April through the years.  The most significant was on April 3, 1987 when 3"-5" of snow fell across the viewing area.

WINTER PATTERN EASING, BUT COULD RELOAD

I am reminded of the email I received in January from a lot of folks proclaiming that winter was over.  But, as we mentioned when groundhog day rolled around, the overall pattern was about to change.  In early February signs of the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation values were going negative.  This is why we kept urging that even though the season had been mild to that point that more chills could be on the way.  These patterns tend to average in 45-60 day cycles.  It has reached its apex in March which again was correctly forecasted by us in late February that March would be a colder than average month.  February and March combined have exhibited below normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.  That fit our original winter forecast, but it took the pattern a while to show up.  The overall theme of our winter forecast was that this winter would not be like last winter.  Again, it took a while, but winter flexed its muscle and 2013 has indeed been different from 2012.

This pattern may be easing through the end of this week, but could reload yet again next week with another cold shot.  50s should return for the next few afternoons, then near 60 by Friday.  Both afternoons this weekend should be in the low/mid 60s, but accompanied by a good chance of showers and t-showers.  By early next week a cold front moves through which could drop our afternoon temperatures back to the 40s and 50s.  So, don't put away the coats just yet.

WEEKEND SHOWER CHANCES

We should see a gradual increase in shower activity through the weekend.  On Saturday, it appears more of an on again, off again chance.  So, some of the egg hunts could still proceed, but be aware that some showers could interrupt at times.  As mentioned above, temperatures should reach the 60s both Saturday and Sunday afternoon.  Shower chances and even some t-storms should increase in coverage Saturday night and into Easter Sunday.  Sunrise Easter Sunday is at 7:29amET.

The showers and t-showers should linger into Monday.  Model data indicates that rainfall could be heavy at times during the weekend with possibly 1"-2".  Of course that could change in the days ahead and we will continue to keep an eye on this.  Another cold front could approach the Tennessee Valley Tuesday resulting in another chance for showers and storms.  This could be followed by the shot of cold air mentioned above for Wednesday.

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David




Weekend Outlook & A Cold Start To Next Week

03/22/13

Off & on scattered showers possible through the weekend.  Much colder air moves in yet again for early next week.

SATURDAY SHOWERS

Most of Saturday should be cloudy.  And, there should be periods of time when rain is not occurring which should allow for some outdoor activities.  But, keep our StormTrack 9 Zoom Radar bookmarked and check it before you head out.  The latest model data showed a better chance for showers during the morning followed by a break into the afternoon.  Temperatures should be a little milder but still below normal in the mid 50s.  So, the jackets will still be needed, and at times an umbrella!

It looks like the coverage of showers and storms should increase through Saturday night as an area of low pressure lifts north from the Gulf of Mexico.  So, through the night, expect that coverage to increase. 

SHOWERS & EVEN SOME T-STORMS SUNDAY

As the area of low pressure lift north through Sunday morning, the coverage of showers locally should remain high.  Some thunderstorms are also possible.  We'll have to keep an eye on the chance for any severe storms.  Right now it looks like the better instability will be well to our south.  But, that of course could change.  Also, local wind speeds picking up from the southwest as that low pressure moves by.

Showers should slowly taper through the afternoon as a cold front moves through.  Temperatures could reach the low 60s for a while with the aid of the southwest wind.  However, with the late day wind shift, colder air begins to move back in Sunday night and into Monday.

ANOTHER COLD SHOT ON THE WAY

Temperatures should be colder than normal yet again as we head into next week.  An persistent northwesterly flow aloft will keep temperatures below seasonal levels.  Some "wrap around" moisture could still exist across the region behind that low pressure system.  This could result in some flurries or even some light snow showers in those typically favored areas locally (higher elevations).  Any amounts should remain light though through Monday morning.  A better chance of meaningful accumulation in the higher terrain of the Smokies and Blue Ridge Mtns.

High temperatures Monday should stay in the 40s and the wind will make it feel colder.  Morning lows should hover near the freezing mark Tuesday through Thursday morning.  Still breezy Tuesday with low 50s by afternoon, then mid to upper 50s and dry through Thursday.  60s should be area wide by late week, but a chance for showers could follow for Friday.

David Glenn




Winter's Chill Hangs On

03/20/13

A colder than normal pattern should continue through the end of the work week and again into next week.  So, Spring is still on hold!

WINDY AND COLDER THURSDAY

A windy and cold pattern takes over for Thursday which should make it feel more like January than Spring.  Some morning sun, then clouds moving back in during the afternoon.  Windy and cold throughout the day with high temperatures only reaching the mid 40s (near 40 mountains) and a northwest wind at 10-20mph.  Wind Chill values could stay in the 30s during the afternoon.

A BRIEF WINTRY MIX

Thursday night and Friday should remain cloudy and still cold.  The leading edge of some moisture attempts to stream in overnight and through Friday morning.  It appears that the best chance of this would be over areas southwest and west of the city.  The air should be dry, but any moisture falling through that dry layer both chills and moistens the column of air.  This could result in some patchy areas of a light wintry mix in those areas listed above. Sometimes, forecast models don't handle evaporative cooling events well. Any mixing should not last past Friday morning as precipitation remains light and scattered.  And, temperatures will be gradually "warming" to the mid/upper 40s through the afternoon.  As always, we will keep an eye on this!

WET THROUGH SATURDAY

The coverage of rain Friday will be slow and gradual, so mainly scattered in nature.  Otherwise just cloudy.  But, the coverage of rain increases through Friday night, Saturday and Saturday night with off an on periods of rain.  40s for Friday night and upper 50s Saturday afternoon.  Rainfall amounts could range from .70"-1.00" with lesser amounts south.

By early Sunday morning, it appears that the rain could lift out and provide at least one nice afternoon of the weekend with temperatures in the mid 60s by afternoon.

BREEZY & CHILLY AGAIN NEXT WEEK

The upper level trough that continues to usher in colder than normal air will again provide a chill for next week.  Breezy and chilly Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low 50s and morning lows in the low 30s.  Even though it will be chilly, the pattern looks dry through midweek.

David Glenn




Gradually Colder Through The Week

03/18/13

The expected severe weather has passed the viewing area, and soon much cooler air should move back in.

GRADUALLY GETTING COLDER

The chill over the next few days won't be sudden, but gradual.  Cooler and drier air returns for Tuesday with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s and sunny.  Temperatures by Tuesday night should drop to the mid/upper 30s.  By Wednesday, the wind picks up from the north-northwest and starts to usher in even colder air.  Wednesday's highs should stay in the 50s and the strong breeze should make it feel colder.  Spring officially begins Wednesday!  By Thursday morning, local temperatures could be in the upper 20s & lower 30s and by afternoon only reach near 50.

This below normal trend of temperatures should stick around for the weekend with highs only near 50 (even some 40s Sunday) and morning lows in the 30s.

NOT JUST COLDER, BUT ALSO WETTER

A late season winter like pattern should keep the Tennessee Valley much cooler and wetter than average.  Only a slight chance of sprinkles, flurries for late Wednesday night and early Thursday.  Then, an "overrunning" type of rainfall event should set up for Friday and continue into the weekend.  The wet pattern of off and on rain should keep temperatures cooler than average through Saturday.  Then, as an area of low pressure moves by, the typical "wrap around" effect could bring the chance of some light rain mixed with light snow on Sunday as colder air moves in aloft.  Way to soon to speculate on any problems because there is not much model agreement on the path of the system and surface temperatures remaining just above freezing.  But, it's worth watching for a late season period of a wintry mix.

As mentioned above, temperatures look to stay above freezing but quite chilly in the 30s and 40s Sunday at the time of that wrap around.  So, the first full weekend of Spring could feel more like winter as this colder than average March "marches" on.

As always, more details in the days ahead!  Enjoy the sunshine Tuesday!

David Glenn




A Warm Weekend, But Severe Weather Possible Monday

03/15/13

A warm and windy pattern for the last weekend of Winter.  Some severe storms could follow for Monday afternoon and evening.

WARM & WINDY AT TIMES SATURDAY

The low 70s that moved in Friday afternoon should continue again for Saturday.  A strong breeze from the southwest can be expected at 15-25mph and at times gusty.  So, some good kite flying weather!  A mix of clouds and sun is possible along with just a small chance for an isolated shower.  Through Saturday night a similar pattern, but not as windy with a low in the upper 40s.

MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE

The chance for showers Sunday remains in the scattered category.  So, nothing of an "all day" sorts.  Most of the day should exhibit more clouds than sun and still breezy at times.  Afternoon temperatures should reach the low 70s (60s mountains).  And, a continued steady breeze from the southwest at 10-15mph.  Some isolated to scattered showers possible from time to time, but not everywhere.  A slightly better coverage of some showers into Sunday night, but still in the isolated category.

SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY

That headline says it all.  The first real threat of the season for scattered to numerous strong to severe storms is possible Monday afternoon and evening.  A strong low pressure system should move from southwest to northeast across Alabama and middle Tennessee setting up the threat for severe weather.  Some of the storms during the afternoon and evening could produce damaging wind gusts and large hail.  There also remains the chance for the development of some supercells that can bring about a chance for the possibility of tornadoes.  As always, we certainly hope that does not happen, but conditions indicate the possibility and urge you to stay alert about the conditions for Monday.

 We will continue to keep an eye on the development of this system.  It's a good time to check your weather alert radios to make sure that it has fresh batteries and is programmed correctly.  Here is the link to the S.A.M.E. code for your county.

COOLER LONG RANGE

Even though Spring officially begins Wednesday, cooler than average temperatures are still a possibility.  Both long range outlooks from the GFS and ECMWF show cooler than average conditions back first off all on Tuesday, but then possibly again late next week and into the following week.  So, some mornings in the 30s are still possible.  Again, you can always depend on us for updates.

David Glenn




Looking Back At Superstorm '93

03/12/13

March 12th & 13th mark the 20th anniversary of Superstorm '93.  The historic snowstorm that dumped nearly 2 ft of snow across the Tennessee Valley.

IT STILL SEEMS LIKE YESTERDAY

My how time flies!  It still doesn't seem like 20 years since the Superstorm.  But, one look at the grey hair on my head begs to differ!  Yes, back then I had brown hair and was about 2 years into my career as a broadcast meteorologist here in Chattanooga.  I remember vividly the Monday before the storm seeing some of the longer range computer model outlooks from the LFM & NGM model...(For you forecast model watchers, both models are long gone!).  These models were printed out instead of being viewed on a computer screen.  The storm being projected 4-5 days out was definitely an eyebrow raiser.

And, as each day progressed, the models did not waiver.  In fact, the LFM model was very accurate with this storm.  The problem us forecasters had was convincing local residents that a potentially huge storm could impact the Tennessee Valley by the weekend.  Why was it hard to convince?  Well, through Wednesday of that week, temperatures were in the 70s and everything was budding.  But, we could all see this storm coming and knew it was going to be huge.

By Friday, the first "Blizzard Watch" was posted for our viewing area in northwest Georgia.  While I had no problem at all broadcasting this "Watch", it was the first time most local folks had heard that locally.  The first flakes began to fall Friday afternoon (12th) and schools began to close early.  At first, the flakes melted on impact.  We continued to stress that the worst was still to come later.  By later that Friday evening, the periods of snow increased and it no longer melted.  Temperatures dropped through the night and the wind howled.  No seriously...it howled!  Wind gusts in the 40mph to 50mph range gripped the region along with heavy snow.  Near "white out" conditions at times on that Saturday.

During the predawn hours of Saturday (13th), "thundersnow" occurred.  Simply a thunderstorm with snow instead of rain.  It just added to the dramatics already occurring.  The bright green and blue flashes illuminated the snowy landscape and the jarring claps of thunder woke a lot of people from sleep.  The snow was no longer just accumulating, it was drifting.  After sunrise, a lot of areas had drifts up to 3ft and even higher in other spots.

That Saturday was not a day to play in the snow.  It was dangerous!  Trees were falling due to the wind gusts and weight of the snow.  Wind chill levels were nearing 0.  The periods of snow would continue through the early morning hours of the 14th (Sunday).  I remember being on the air during the overnight hours of that Saturday night (13th) through the (14th).  By that time, the storm was calming down, but reading the snow totals and reporting the current temperatures was incredible.  By that time, amounts ranged from 18-23 inches and temperatures at about the same range.

By Sunday, the sunshine was back.  It was a little safer to be out taking pictures.  Some folks were getting back on the roads.  But, many had problems with their cars clearance level and the height of the snowfall accumulation.  The local road crews were doing their best to plow some of the major roads.  With snow cover, temperatures remained cold and dropped to near 10 degrees that Sunday night.

By Monday (15th), I spent more time on the air taking viewer phone calls trying to get help to those in need.  It was a reminder of how paralyzed the local region was due to massive power outages.  I remember passing these notes along to the EPB and Red Cross and other organizations.  For some, power was restored in just a couple of days.  But for others, it took 2-3 weeks.

So many people ask me, "could we see this again?".  Well, I have always said that if something has happened before, it could happen again at some point.  I still believe that! 

Superstorm '93 goes down as a Top 5 weather event that I have covered as a broadcast meteorologist.  The other 4 are (in no particular order)....The tornado outbreak of April 27, 2011.....Hurricane Katrina & Ivan during my years on the Gulf Coast.....The Good Friday tornado in East Brainerd in 1997.

David Glenn






A Wet Start To The Week

03/10/13

Showers can be expected as we start the new work week, but after the wet start drier conditions should prevail for the remainder of the week.  A bit cooler as well.

SHOWERS & WINDY MONDAY

A slow moving cold front should usher in periods of rain during the day Monday.  Rainfall amounts projected by forecast guidance models suggest a range from 0.75" to just over 1".  So, not an excessively heavy event, but a decent soaking across the Tennessee Valley.  It should also be windy at times as well with a southwest to west wind on average at 15-25mph with higher gusts.

Some thundershowers cannot be ruled out, but the overall risk of severe storms remains very low.  Showers should taper off Monday evening, followed by drier and cooler air into Tuesday.

DRIER BUT QUITE COOL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Dry conditions should return for Tuesday, but an upper level flow from the northwest should keep temperatures quite cool through Thursday.  Sunshine returning for Tuesday, with a morning low in the upper 30s and an afternoon high only in the mid 50s.  The northwesterly flow strengthens a bit for Wednesday pushing the temperatures just a little bit lower.  Highs on Wednesday in the low 50s and a morning low near the freezing mark.  Upper 50s and still dry Thursday.

LATE WEEK WARMING TREND

Temperatures should finally return to seasonal averages by Friday as afternoon temperatures get back into the low 60s.  This warming trend should continue into the upcoming weekend with mid/upper 60s possible Saturday and upper 60s to near 70 possible Sunday.  Still a mostly dry pattern, just more cloud cover each day Saturday and Sunday.  As always, we will have updates for the weekend forecast in the days ahead!

MODELS DISAGREE ON LONG RANGE

Really, what else is new in that category, especially beyond 8-9 days out.  The GFS model keeps the Southeastern US in a more Spring like pattern of showers into the week of the 18th and temperatures at or just above average.  The European model (ECMWF) which historically has a better track record in the long range, projects a late season low pressure system for the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic & Northeast.  The ECMWF paints a colder pattern for us the week of the 18th along with some Smokies/Blue Ridge Mtns snow.  Transitional months like March will often times have differences like this.  So, we just take it one day at a time and see how the pattern evolves in the days ahead.

David Glenn




Weekend Outlook & A Peek At Next Week

03/08/13

Warmer afternoons can be expected through the upcoming weekend.  More cloud cover each day, leading to a chance of showers and storms for Monday.

WARMER WEEKEND

The first 7 days of March have exhibited below normal temperatures here in the Tennessee Valley.  The average temperature was 39.9 degrees which was 9 degrees below normal.  Finally, we begin to reverse that trend through the weekend. 

It will still be chilly Saturday morning as temperatures dip into the mid 30s.  The rest of Saturday should have a mix of sun and clouds along with a steady breeze from the south-southeast.  Temperatures by the afternoon should reach the mid 60s at most valley locations, but around 60 local mountains.  It should not be as cold Saturday night with a low in the low 40s.  Sunday should be a little warmer through the afternoon, but with more clouds.  Expect a gradual increase in cloud cover through the day and breezy with a south wind at 10-20mph.  Temperatures by late afternoon should reach the upper 60s (low 60s local mountains).

SHOWERS & STORMS MONDAY

An approaching cold front should produce a wet start to the work week.  The good news at this point is that the risk of severe storms remains very low across the region.  Scattered showers should move in Monday afternoon and continue through the afternoon and early evening.  Forecast guidance models are fairly consistent with projected rainfall amounts ranging around 1", though the NAM model is slightly lower at 0.65".  So, a soaking possible but not a heavy rain event.  There could be some embedded t-storms, but the risk of severe storms remains low.

DRY & SEASONAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Drier conditions should move back in by Tuesday.  Temperatures should be just a little cooler as afternoon highs ease back to the mid/upper 50s.  More sun looks possible for Wednesday through Friday and this should allow afternoon temperatures to return to the 60s with morning lows in the upper 30s.  Overall, quite seasonal for this time of year!

David Glenn




Finally....A Warming Trend!

03/06/13

The snow showers came and went. Overall the system did as expected.  Now we shift our attention away from the chill and finally discuss a warming trend!

WARMER AFTERNOONS AHEAD

Even though we are expecting a warming trend, please remember that the mornings will still be chilly.  In fact, lows both Thursday and Friday morning should be near 30.  But, by Thursday afternoon you should begin to feel the warming trend as temperatures should reach the low/mid 50s with sunshine (upper 40s mountains).  By Friday, the upswing continues as temperatures should reach near 60 by the afternoon (50s mountains).  By Saturday, a sunny to partly sunny sky should yield afternoon temperatures in the mid 60s.  More cloud cover Sunday, but still warmer during the afternoon with mid/upper 60s possible.

WET & STORMY START POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEK

A mostly dry pattern should continue through Sunday.  As mentioned above, clouds should continue to increase in coverage through Sunday.  Monday should begin cloudy as a low pressure system moves closer to the Tennessee Valley from the lower/middle Mississippi Valley.  This Spring-like pattern could bring showers back to our viewing area Monday afternoon and even the chance for some thunderstorms.  It is still too early to speculate on the severity of any storms, but I will keep you posted in the days ahead.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEK

A warm start to the week with 60s prior to the arrival of showers and storms.  There should be a brief cool down Tuesday with highs holding in the 50s.  The rest of the week should exhibit temperatures near normal for early to mid March with high temperatures reach back to near 60.  The long range European model (ECMWF) shows highs possibly near 70 late next week, but the GFS model show another cooling trend by late next week and the weekend.  So, we'll just take it one day at a time!

FEBRUARY 2013 STATS

A few days delayed in posting this!  February 2013 was cooler and drier than average as recorded at Lovell Field in Chattanooga.  The average temperature was 44.1 degrees which was 0.3 degrees below average.  It was much cooler than last February when the average temperature was 48.8 degrees.  And, it represented a change in the upper level pattern that was so mild locally for December and January.  But, since the start of February through this first week of March, temperatures have been cooler than average.  The first week of March has averaged about 9 degrees below average.

While December and January were wetter than average, February was just slightly drier than average with 3.94" (-0.90").  The yearly surplus of rainfall is still just over 3.50".  The winter months of Dec-Jan-Feb ended with a seasonal rain surplus of 4.59".  This fared well for our winter forecast with the weak El Nino keeping us on pace for rainfall.  A good start to the year and hopeful at least a normal trend of rainfall continues for Spring.

David Glenn




Another "Low" Brings Rain & A Brief Shot At Wintry Conditions

03/04/13

A quiet start to the work week will be replaced by a wild swing in temperatures both directions through Wednesday.  This will be accompanied by some rain/t-showers and even some snow showers mountains.

RAIN RETURNS TUESDAY

Tuesday should begin cloudy with a rapid increase in rain activity beginning before sunrise then off and on throughout the day.  There is a chance for some t-storms Tuesday afternoon as the main energy and instability with this low pressure system moves through.  The threat of severe storms remains low and the Storm Prediction Center has no local areas under any outlook.  Rainfall amounts could range between 0.30"-0.50" which is the general range indicated by forecast guidance models.

WINDY & COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT....EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS

Behind this low pressure system will be the passage of an upper "low" that will quickly chill our air mass as temperatures go from the 50s early evening down to near 32 by Wednesday morning.  The bulk of the moisture moves out during the evening.  But, as the cold air moves in, it could serve to squeeze out any available moisture.  This, along with a northwesterly "upslope" flow over area mountains could be some periods of snow showers.  The best timing looks to be between midnight & 6am Wednesday.

Any accumulation locally should remain light and mainly mountains.  Winter Storm Watches are out for the mountains above 2500 ft in Polk & Monroe Co, TN along with Cherokee & Clay Co, NC through Wednesday.  Accumulation rates at those higher peaks could be higher because of that upslope flow.  Most of the higher peaks along the TN/NC border up through the Smokies could have significant snowfall.  Some of the eastern valley locations on the east side of the mountains could have some light accumulation (Murphy, Andrews, Blairsville, etc).

As with any chance of wintry weather anywhere in our viewing area, you can depend on us for updates.

COLD & BREEZY WEDNESDAY

Be aware of some icy spots due to the sharp drop in temperature and of course the higher elevation snow showers.

Some residual flurries or light snow showers could continue for higher elevations then quickly ending.  A breezy, chilly day feeling more like winter.  High temperatures in the 30s mountains to the low 40s valley (similar to what we had last Saturday).

WARMING TREND BEGINS THURSDAY

Sunshine returns Thursday and it should be milder, but not until the afternoon.  Expect a morning near 30 and afternoon temperatures in the low 50s.  By Friday, more sunshine and temperatures near 60.  Low to mid 60s possible Saturday and again Sunday.  More cloud cover is possible Sunday leading to a possible chance of rain by Monday.

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Wintry Pattern Continues Into Next Week

02/28/13

This wintry pattern with below normal temperatures should continue into next week.  Some periodic snow showers through Saturday could yield some light accumulation, especially mountains.  Another clipper system will need to be watch for Tuesday which could means some rain first, but then possibly end as snow showers Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY

The low pressure system spinning across the Great Lakes will continue to keep the Tennessee Valley chilly through the weekend.  Occasionally, there will be some periods of light rain mixed with light snow showers.  Moisture amounts remain light through Saturday. The better chance for more widespread light snow showers could occur Friday night and into Saturday morning.  Again, overall moisture amounts remain light, but there could be just enough snow shower activity to allow for some light accumulation, especially at higher elevations.

Local mountain tops and toward the Cumberland Plateau could have an inch or so (up to 2" toward Crossville).  Likewise, to the east, the higher peaks of the Smokies and Blue Ridge Mtns could have several inches.  Valley locations could have a dusting in spots due to the scattered nature of the snow showers.  So, overall, while there are no major problems expected, as always watch for some slick spots on the mountain tops.

Temperatures both Friday and Saturday should only top out in the low 40s (30s mountains) and morning lows from 30-32. 

DRIER SUNDAY AND MONDAY

Finally, some sunshine returns to the Tennessee Valley Sunday.  A very cold start to the day though with temperatures in the upper 20s early, then reaching the mid/upper 40s by afternoon.  A little colder Monday morning with mid 20s possible, but quickly rising back to the low 50s by afternoon (still 40s mountains).

KEEP AN EYE ON A "CLIPPER" TUESDAY

The strong upper level flow from the northwest could bring another clipper system our way by Tuesday.  This could bring some precipitation starting by the afternoon.  The precip could begin as some rain, but as temperatures aloft and at the surface quickly chill, it could change to snow showers.  It is still VERY early and several days out, but this system bears watching as there could be enough moisture left with this system to allow from of the snow showers to accumulate in some areas (especially mountains)....Again, welcome to March in the Tennessee Valley!

As always, you can depend on us for updates in the days ahead!

David Glenn




Chill Moving In!

02/26/13

The long expected cold snap is moving in and as mentioned before the chill should stick around for a while as we enter March.

WINDY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

As an area of low pressure continues to sit and spin to our north, windy conditions will result locally.  Wind gusts could exceed 30 mph at times through Wednesday and even up to 40 mph on the local mountain tops. 

Occasionally, patchy areas of light rain and drizzle will continue to pinwheel around that low pressure and move our way.  This pattern too will stick around for the next couple of days.  Temperatures should stay in the upper 40s Wednesday and the wind will make it feel colder.  Mid 30s by Wednesday Night.

COLDER LATE WEEK & WEEKEND...SOME FLAKES AS WELL

As the upper level flow shifts from the west to the northwest, temperatures will continue to be gradually colder.  And, as the cold air moves in aloft, the periodic patchy areas of light rain/drizzle could fall as flurries/light snow at higher elevations starting Wednesday night and periodically through Saturday.

This type of "wrap around" pattern is not typically where we get our big snowfalls.  But, there could be some light accumulation at higher elevations (Plateau & Blue Ridge Mtns around an inch or two through Saturday.  Most of that could occur later Friday and into Saturday as another disturbance moves through and creates some more widespread areas of flurries & snow showers.  Valley locations should have temperatures still just above freezing through Saturday limiting any problems, but some very light accumulation on grassy areas is possible though the flurries/snow showers will be scattered in nature.  In other words, not everywhere at the same time.  Moisture amounts remain very light, so this should again limit any major problems.  As always, we will keep an eye on it!

STILL LOOKS COLDER THAN AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK

A drier day Sunday but still chilly with highs in the 40s.  By Tuesday, another clipper system could move in from the northwest.  This could allow for a quick round of rain showers that could end as a period of flurries/snow showers by Tuesday night.  Temperatures should still be below average for this time of year next week, but slowly warming a bit by late next week.

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




A Colder Pattern Developing

02/25/13

The earlier blog posts have mentioned it, and now that colder pattern will start evolving locally and regionally.  And, this colder than average period could stick around well into next week.  In other words, welcome to early March in the Tennessee Valley!

RAINY & WINDY THROUGH TUESDAY

A strong low pressure system will create a windy scenario locally through late Monday night and into Tuesday morning.  This means an increasing southeast breeze through the night at 15-25mph, but some gusts could reach 30-35 mph.  At higher elevations, the gusts could be stronger and even exceed 40mph at times. 

Periods of rain can be expected as well from late evening and through the overnight hours.  While a few t-showers cannot be ruled out, the overall severe storm risk remains low locally.  Tuesday morning should begin wet with a good coverage of rain, but then taper to some periods of drizzle/light rain into the afternoon.  Rainfall amounts could average from 0.50" to 1.00" through Tuesday.

A COLDER "WRAP AROUND" PATTERN DEVELOPS

As the strong low pressure moves by and sets up shop over the Mid-Atlantic & Northeast, it will create a persistent northwest upper flow across the Tennessee Valley on the back side of the low pressure system.  This type of "wrap around" pattern means some chilly days locally along with some pockets of flurries/light snow showers at times from Wednesday night through Saturday.  Occasionally, some light rain/drizzle mixes in.  Overall, precipitation amounts should remain light, so no major snow problems are expected.  But, some very light accumulation could occur along the usually favored areas of the Cumberland Plateau and Blue Ridge Mountains.  The higher peaks of the Smokies and Blue Ridge could have several inches with that upslope flow.

High temperatures should be below average locally as high temperatures drop to the 40s and morning lows near 32.  Also breezy at times creating a brisk wind chill.  By late Saturday and into Sunday, the air dries out, but still chilly Sunday.

COLDER PATTERN EXTENDS INTO NEXT WEEK

This colder than average pattern should continue well into next week as a deep trough remains in place over the central and eastern US.  Locally, this means possibly another chilly week ahead even though it will be March by then.  What is also interesting is that both long range forecast models (GFS & ECMWF) favor a clipper like system digging southward around March 5th which "if" that actually happened could mean some wintry precipitation possible locally.  So, something to keep an eye on for now. 

But, let's just take it one day at a time!  As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Weekend & Longer Range Outlook

02/22/13

An early wet start should not dampen the weekend as drier & milder conditions should return.

EARLY MORNING RAIN SATURDAY

Another disturbance will move through the Southeast and Tennessee Valley producing some periods of rain through the predawn hours of Saturday.  Any rain should quickly taper off to the south and east after sunrise.  Clouds should linger, then gradually break away through the afternoon.  Milder temperatures as well with low/mid 40s during the morning, then upper 50s by afternoon with a light southwest wind.  Drier through Saturday night with a clear sky and mid 30s.

SUNNY FOR SUNDAY

Sunday should be a nice day to round out the final weekend of February.  A chilly morning, but a mild afternoon with a sunny to partly sunny sky.  Afternoon temperatures should reach the upper 50s (low 50s mountains) and near 60 in a few spots.  Clouds should begin to move back in Sunday night with a low in the upper 30s.

ANOTHER WET START TO THE WEEK

Just as we dry out, rain is poised to move back in Monday.  The better coverage should occur during the afternoon.  Temperatures should again be mild with mid/upper 50s, but wet through the afternoon.  The periods of rain should continue through Monday night and at least Tuesday morning.  Long range forecast model projections show the possibility of around at least 0.50" of rain with this system.  As for any severe weather, we will be keeping an eye on this.  Right now it appears the better chance for strong to severe storms could be south of the I-20 corridor.  We will keep you posted!

COLDER AIR RETURNS MID TO LATE WEEK

My past few posts have discussed the cold end to February and beginning of March.  Still no changes as a deep trough could develop over the Eastern & Southeastern US by mid-late week and the first several days of March.  Some "wrap around" moisture could allow for some periods of flurries or light snow showers Thursday and Friday.  Moisture amounts remain light.  But, with such a cold pattern settling in we will just have to keep an eye on any southern stream moisture attempting to move back in.  Latest longer range models do not consistently show anything right now.  Daily high temperatures could stay in the 40s starting Thursday with morning lows in the upper 20s & lower 30s.  That trend looks to stick around through the weekend of March 2nd.

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Some Weather Odds & Ends

02/21/13

The wet weather currently should last through Friday morning.  The remainder of Friday looks cloudy with mainly some drizzle.  Afternoon temperatures should reach the mid 50s.  For the weekend, afternoon temperatures still look milder with upper 50s Saturday and low 60s Sunday.  I am still including a slight chance for rain early Saturday morning, but then partly cloudy by afternoon.  Sunday looks partly sunny.

FEBRUARY 2013 COOLER & DRIER SO FAR

After back to back months of warmer than average temperatures in December and January, February so far has been cooler than average.  Through the 21st, the average temperature at Lovell Field was 43.3 degrees which is 0.3 degrees below average.  This also marks the coldest of the statistical 3 winter months of December, January & February.  The coldest morning so far was on the 17th with a low of 21 degrees.  Rainfall has been below average so far by about 1.40".  We still have a surplus of rain for 2013 and the winter season.

LONGER RANGE PATTERN STILL LOOKING CHILLY

As I have discussed in earlier posts, the longer range pattern beyond 7 days starting late next week is still looking colder than normal.  With the NAO going deeply negative, this could allow for a deep eastern US trough which means a colder pattern locally and across the Southeastern states.  The various long range models continue to suggest some "wrap around" type snow flurries/snow showers late next week and early next weekend.  No way of telling if this will cause problems as moisture remains light,  But, something to keep an eye on as we turn the calendar to March.  The first week of March could be colder than average.

David Glenn




Weather Thoughts On Thursday Morning

02/21/13

We will have clouds increase today as a storm system moves in from the West.   I feel we will see some light rain before sunset today.  Highs in the upper 50s.  Rain is likely tonight and early Friday.  Rain may actually end late Friday morning.  The weekend includes some rain early on Saturday, mainly East of Chattanooga.  Then mainly dry with highs near 60.  Bill Race




Milder, But Wetter Through Late Week

02/20/13

Temperatures should gradually inch upward through late week and into the weekend, but so will the chance for rain.

CLOUDY & MILDER THURSDAY

Clouds should linger Thursday.  There could be some periods with the sun peeking through at times.  Rain chances remain low through late afternoon.  It will still be cool, though not as cold as Wednesday with temperatures reaching the mid 50s (near 50 mountains & upper 50s south).  Rain chances should increase Thursday night as off and on periods of rain will be possible.  It will not be as cold Thursday night with temperatures in the low 40s, but some mid 30s possible to the east in the Blue Ridge Mtn portion of the viewing area.

A WET START FRIDAY

Friday should begin soggy as the off and on periods of rain continue.  It looks as if the better coverage should be during the first half of the day, then diminishing chances through the afternoon.  Overall rainfall chances do not look that heavy, but a wide range of projections from computer model forecasts....ECMWF (European Model) 0.80"....GFS Model 0.25".....NAM Model  0.61".....Expect lesser amounts north of the city and higher amounts south.  The risk of any severe storms remains very low locally.

A LITTLE WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND

The system that will bring us some rain through Friday could stall to our south.  This means that some chance for rain could linger over southern portions of the viewing area Saturday morning.  So, I am still keeping a slight chance of rain in the local forecast through Saturday morning.  Lesser chances later Saturday and Sunday.  Afternoon temperatures should average a little above normal with afternoon highs nearing 60  both days.

STILL LOOKS COOLER THAN AVERAGE NEXT WEEK

The overall local and regional pattern still looks like it could become chilly as we end February next week and enter March.  As I mentioned in Tuesday's post, the NAO is finally going into a lengthy negative phase for the first time in quite a while.  This could mean a deep trough sets up over the eastern US. In other words....a chilly pattern.  Longer range outlooks (both European and US models) agree on this colder than average trend through the first week of March.

As for precipitation chances, another round of rain could move in locally late Monday and into Tuesday.  Beyond next Tuesday, there is just no consistency with the model data except for temperatures.  A colder pattern, but any precipitation looks light in nature but inconsistent on developing systems.  So, for you forecast model watchers, you will no doubt see some various winter weather scenarios on the model data by late next week and beyond.  But, still, nothing consistent.  So, again, we'll be in a "wait and see" mode.  The cold pattern looks consistent though.

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Quite Cool Wednesday.....Rain Returning Late Week

02/19/13

Another brief shot of cold air through Wednesday, but milder temperatures will follow through the end of the work week along with an increasing rain chance.

CHILLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
 
Yet another brief shot of cold air will visit the Tennessee Valley through Wednesday.  Morning temperatures should be in the mid/upper 20s.  A sunny to partly sunny sky for the remainder of the day, but afternoon temperatures should stay in the mid/upper 40s.  A steady breeze from the north should continue, but not the strong gusts like we had Tuesday.

CLOUDS & MILDER THURSDAY

Clouds should begin to stream back in late Wednesday afternoon and continue into Thursday.  Still cold Thursday morning with upper 20s to lower 30s.  But, milder temperatures can be expected by Thursday afternoon even with the increasing cloud cover as highs could reach the mid 50s.  A slight chance for rain late Thursday afternoon, but a better chance Thursday night and into the first half of Friday.

WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND

Friday should begin wet as the showers push through.  Most model data begins to show a drying trend through late Friday and into Friday night.  However, the system should stall to our south, so southern portions of the viewing area could still have some lingering showers through early Saturday.  Temperatures Friday should reach near 60 and this warming trend should stick around through the weekend.  Rainfall amounts from Thursday night and into Friday are not projected to be heavy with the following forecast model projections.....ECMWF (European)  0.50"-.0.60"....GFS 0.28"....NAM 0.24". 

Clouds should linger through the weekend along with the warmer than average temperatures.  Rain could move back in by late Sunday and into the first couple of days of next week.

COLDER LONG RANGE?

With the NAO finally dipping into the negative territory for a more lengthy period of time, this could mean a period of below average temperatures as we end February next week and into the first 5-10 days of March.  Most longer range model data (Euro & US) point toward a colder period locally.  The latest 8-14 day temperature outlook by the Climate Prediction Center also agrees.

Some models like the GFS keep popping up some wintry weather threats in the 8-14 day period, but not consistently with the systems that it portrays.  So, this means that the model "sees" the colder look to the pattern, but remains indecisive on the development of any storm systems.  In other words, "wait and see".  Nothing to hang your hat on right now, but maybe your coat as temperatures could be a bit on the chilly side as we enter March.  As always, you can depend on us for updates.

David Glenn




Colder Air On The Way

02/14/13

We've talked about this for a while now, and the shot of much colder air is on the way for late Friday and into Saturday.

CLOUDS RETURN FRIDAY

The first of two cold fronts will push through the Tennessee Valley Friday.  This will bring clouds back to the area and even some pockets of light rain showers into the afternoon.  The rain will be patchy in nature and even last into the evening hours.  As for temperatures, the southwest breeze ahead of the front should briefly boost temperatures to the 50s, then quickly fall by late day and into the evening as the wind shifts to the northwest.  As the cold air moves in, some of the patchy areas of light rain could switch to some patchy areas of flurries or light snow showers.  Moisture remains very limited with this system.  Most model projections only range from .02"-.05" of moitsure.

The second front moves through overnight Friday night and again could bring some periods of flurries or patchy light snow showers to the mountains.  Again, with limited moisture, no problems are expected with this.  Temperatures overnight should drop to the upper 20s to near 30 and feeling colder due to the northwest wind.  As always, we will keep an eye on that radar and keep you updated!

WINDY AND CHILLY SATURDAY

The steady breeze from the northwest should continue Saturday producing a wind chill in the 20s and 30s throughout the day.  There could be some periodic pockets of flurries here and there, but primarily higher elevations.  The higher peaks of the Blue Ridge and Smoky Mtns could have some light accumulation.  Otherwise a mix of clouds and sun with temperatures only reaching the low 40s at valley locations and 30s mountains.  Saturday night looks drier and colder with an overnight low in the lower 20s.

SUNNY & NICE SUNDAY

Sunday should begin quite cold with temperatures in the low 20s and even some upper 10s north and mountains.  But, with sunshine and a light wind, temperatures should steadily climb back to the upper 40s and even near 50 south by the afternoon.  The warming trend should continue into Monday with a sun/cloud mix and mid 50s by the afternoon.

RAIN RETURNS TUESDAY

As the warming trend continues, a developing storm system over the Plains states should move our way starting late Monday night.  This should bring rain back to the Tennessee Valley into Tuesday.  There still remains a chance for some thunderstorms, but still too early to speculate on severe chances.  Right now that chance looks low, but as always we will keep an eye on that.  Rainfall projections for Tuesday are ranging from 0.50"-0.75".

Wednesday should be dry, but yet another Plains states system rapidly moves in by Thursday and Friday which could mean another round of rain.  Again we will have to be watchful for any thunderstorm chance for the late week system as well.  The European Model (ECMWF) projects the possibility of over an inch of rain late next Thursday night and into Friday.

I will be taking a few days off from Friday through Monday. Bill Race and Jason Disharoon will continue to keep you updated!

David Glenn




Beautiful Weather For Valentine's Day

02/13/13

Sunshine returns just in time for Valentine's Day!  A brief shot of much colder air is still on the way for the weekend.  Rain and even some thunderstorms by early next week.

A HEART WARMING FORECAST FOR VALENTINE'S DAY

Sunshine should return for Thursday.  A chilly start to the day with temperatures in the low 30s.  But, milder temperatures should return for the afternoon with mid/upper 50s (low 50s mountains).  If you have evening date plans for your Valentine, expect dry conditions and temperatures in the 40s.

COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY

The first of two cold fronts should pass through the Tennessee Valley Friday morning, followed by the second front by Friday evening.  Moisture continues to look limited with both fronts.  But, cloud cover should increase during the day Friday and an increasing breeze from the west-northwest by late day.  A few light showers could move through during the afternoon and evening hours.  Afternoon temperatures should still reach the 50s. The second cold front Friday evening opens the door to a brief shot of arctic air.  Breezy and colder conditions through late Friday night and into Saturday.  Some occasional periods of flurries could move through during this time, but again moisture is very limited.  With enough upslope flow over the Blue Ridge & Smoky Mtns, there could be more in the way of snow showers on the tip tops! 

High temperatures Saturday should struggle to reach 40 and the wind will make it feel like the 20s and 30s throughout the day.  Low temperatures Saturday night should drop to the low 20s.  As I mentioned earlier, this cold snap will be brief as temperatures by Sunday afternoon should reach near 50.  Mid to upper 50s by Monday.

RAIN & POSSIBLE T-STORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

The next round of rain could arrive late Monday night and continue through Tuesday.  There is the possibility of some thunderstorms during the day Tuesday as an area of low pressure moves through.  Still a bit early to speculate on any severe risk.  But, as always, we will keep an eye on this.

Model rainfall projections range from 0.60" by the European Model and 1.20" by the GFS Model.

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




A Blustery Wednesday

02/12/13

A wet start to Wednesday followed by windy conditions at times through the afternoon.  The upcoming weekend still looks chilly.

WINDY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY

A low pressure system will pass through the Southeast states and keep the start of our day wet at times.  Drier air should filter in during the afternoon ending the rain from west to east.  The departing low pressure system will increase the breeze from the west-northwest at 15-25mph.  So, a wet start, then a blustery end to the day.  Afternoon temperatures should stay in the upper 40s and lower 50s with the breeze making it feel even colder through the afternoon hours.

Much colder air moves in for Wednesday night dropping temperatures to the lower 30s.  Skies should gradually clear through the night.

DRY, SEASONAL FOR THURSDAY

Sunshine should return for Thursday.  After a cold start with temperatures in the 30s, afternoon temperatures should reach the mid/upper 50s.  So, nice weather for Valentines Day! 

CLOUDS RETURN FRIDAY

Friday should begin dry with a fair sky and temperatures in the 30s during the morning.  A gradual increase in cloud cover through the day.  There is only a slight chance for rain late in the day.  The NAM model a little earlier than the other models with a chance of light rain late day.  Expect an afternoon high in the lower 50s. Much colder air begins moving in Friday night.

STILL LOOKS COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND

A brief shot of much colder air should invade the Tennessee Valley Friday night and into the weekend.  Moisture still looks light and limited.  So, there could be some periods of flurries here and there.  However, with that limited moisture this does not appear to be a problem.  The big story will be the colder temperatures.  Highs on Saturday could stay in the 30s for most areas along with a brisk northwest wind.  Low temperatures Saturday night could dip to the lower 20s.  Sunny for Sunday with temperatures gradually inching back into the low/mid 40s.

The cold air should move out pretty quickly with afternoon temps back in the low 50s by Monday.

WET & POSSIBLY STORMY EARLY NEXT WEEK

Yet another strong low pressure system approaches starting late Monday.  This could spread rain back into the region late day Monday and into Monday night.  More widespread areas of rain and even some thunderstorms possible by Tuesday.

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David




Rain Returns Fat Tuesday.....Much Colder By The Weekend

02/11/13

"Let the good times roll....or rain" for Fat Tuesday.  Temperatures remain seasonal through the end of the week, then some much colder air for the weekend.

RAIN RETURNS TUESDAY

Another system should roll through the Tennessee Valley Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon.  This should provide another round of rain especially by Tuesday afternoon.  Rain should begin moving back in locally from the south.  So, southern parts of the viewing area should have a longer duration of rain from late morning through the rest of the day.  Northern parts of the viewing area should have rain moving in much later in the day.  So, a gradual increase from south to north through the course of the afternoon.

Off & on rainy periods should continue Tuesday night before tapering off by Wednesday afternoon.  Rainfall amounts will also vary from the south to north.  Rainfall projections range from 0.25"-0.50" around the city, to possible amounts of 0.75" to near 1" over southern sections.  As the rain tapers off late Wednesday (Ash Wednesday), there could be some flurries over the Cumberland Plateau near Crossville, but right now not a big deal.

DRY & SEASONAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

Sunshine returns for Thursday with a sunny to partly sunny sky.  Temperatures should be seasonal with morning lows in the low 30s both mornings and highs in the low/mid 50s each afternoon.

MUCH COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND

A brief visit of some arctic air is still expected for the upcoming weekend.  Along the leading edge of the cold air there could be a disturbance that produce some light precipitation.  Right now this could mean some periods of flurries or light snow showers Saturday afternoon.  This type of "clipper" pattern doesn't typically provide us with big snows around here and moisture amounts look quite low under 0.10".  The usual favored areas of the higher elevations could get a dusting or light covering. As always, we'll keep an eye on that!  Saturday night looks drier and colder, then sunny Sunday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be noticeably colder with highs in the upper 30s to near 40 Saturday.  Lows in the upper 20s and even some 10s north Saturday night.  Sunday's highs should stay in the low 40s.

As always, you can depend on us to keep you updated!

David Glenn




Weekend Outlook....Sunny Start, But A Wetter End.

02/08/13

A nice start to the second weekend of February, but as we have been discussing rain will move back in later Sunday.

SUNNY, SUNNY SATURDAY

Saturday really looks nice.  Now, it will be quite cold during the morning hours with upper 20s at sunrise.  But, with plenty of sunshine and a light breeze, temperatures should eventually reach the mid/upper 50s through the afternoon hours (low 50s mountains).  Soak up that sunshine and Vitamin D as clouds will race back in Saturday night.

SHOWERS RETURNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Sunday should be cloudy and not nearly as cold during the morning hours with mainly upper 30s.  Temperatures should reach the mid/upper 50s by afternoon along with a gradual increase in the chance of showers during the afternoon.  A more widespread chance for rain Sunday night and through at least Monday morning. Some thundershowers cannot be ruled out, but the chance of severe weather locally remains very low with the better chances well to our south. A quick look at model projections through midday Monday...(European 1.20"...GFS 1.15"....NAM 1.04").

PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK

Off & on rainy periods are still possible through at least midweek.  Model projections differ a bit on the timing of each disturbance. A good swath of rain could swing back through Monday night to Tuesday.  A gradual drying trend by Thursday and early Friday.  One item I found interesting was the GFS model insistence of a quick moving low pressure system within the southerly flow spreading a period of "wrap around" snow showers early Wednesday.  None of the other global models indicate this, but as always just something to keep an eye on.  Temperatures should remain above seasonal averages through Tuesday, then chill to near or below average Wednesday through Friday.

COLDER LOOKING LONG RANGE

The Arctic Oscillation indicates a dip or negative phase over the next 10 days and the overall pattern is showing a colder look locally and regionally late next week and beyond into the President's Day weekend.  Daily highs dropping back to the 40s and even some 30s over that weekend.  As far as any snow chances, I am sure that you forecast model watchers have been noticing the off and on chances for at least a few disturbances moving through locally.  The GFS keeps jumping around in both location and timing, while the European (ECMWF) has been locked in to the chance of a wintry precipitation chance locally next weekend.  So, some things to watch in the days ahead.  No way at all to pinpoint at this time.

Have a terrific, but safe weekend!  You can depend on us to keep you updated!

David






Winter 2013 Mid-Season Update

02/07/13

Winter 2012-2013 is half over, so it's time to check the local stats so far!

THE GOOD & THE BAD

Let's start with the temperatures through December and January.  As most of you know, temperatures so far have been above average.  December's average temperature was 48.1 which was 5.5 degrees above average.  January's average temperature was 45.4 which was 4.9 degrees above average.  As you will remember, my winter forecast projected the possibility of below normal temperatures.  Even if arctic air poured in for 2-3 weeks straight to round out February, the winter temperature projection will simply be a bust.

I have to base seasonal outlooks on past patterns (climatology).  As I mentioned in the winter outlook, computer model guidance simply is not a good tool for seasonal outlooks. So, those cannot be factored in.  The NAO/AO projections are only good 1-2 weeks in advance.  So, I have to look for similar seasonal patterns (El Nino/La Nina/Neutral).  Sometimes it's good....sometimes it's bad!  This one was the latter so far.  I've had a good track record the past few years, but as far as this winter's temperatures....nope!

Now, all is not a bust.  The rainfall category has fit the weak El Nino past patterns quite well.  I projected that we should get our seasonal precipitation and avoid coming out of winter with a drought.  So far, so good!  Here are the rainfall stats.  December had 5.56" of precipitation which was 0.66" above average.  January was very wet with a total of 9.74" which was 2.64" above average.  February's precipitation total has been light so far, but is projected to pick up next week.  Again, the weak El Nino to Neutral winters have been consistently near average and some below average.  But based on the Fall 2012 patterns I went with the wetter side of the past stats.

Now, for the wild card category of snow.  If you will recall from the winter outlook, I call this the wild card category because we average such a low amount anyway (around 4").  So, just one snow event can top that.  So far, based on Lovell Field observations, we had a trace on Dec 26th & 29th.  Some light snow showers (no accumulation except mtns) on January 18th.  Some light ice accumulation on January 25th.  Then, 0.3" of light snow accumulation on February 2nd.   So far, these totals are below seasonal averages.  Snow can still happen locally as late as early April, but the odds drop each week through late February and into March.  So, we'll see how things turn out!

Why so warm locally?  Well since this is the bust category let's take a look.  The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has been fluctuating around average.  When the NAO is in the negative phase, it can often lead to a blocking pattern that can lead to prolonged cold air events in the East and Southeast.  This is what we had during the winter's of 2010 & 2011.  The lack of blocking has kept the cold outbreaks shorter in nature and has allowed for quicker temperature recovery.  The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been in negative territory from time to time, but not a blocking phase yet.  These patterns have allowed at times for high pressure off the Southeast coast to become dominant at times and keep our region milder. 

What about the rest of winter? With just about 6 weeks until March 20th, there is still time for winter to occasionally show up.  Looking at the CFS (Climate Forecast System) sub-monthly outlooks, the second half of February could have some wintry periods.  Colder, more seasonal temperatures could return late next week around or just after the 14th.  Model data hints at some southern stream systems interacting with the cold air.  Nothing to really hang your hat on for now being this far out, but just something to keep an eye on.  The CFS projections point to this colder pattern possibly spilling over into early March, then warming quite a bit toward mid month.  Again, this is a model projection but has some validity with some colder periods around mid February.

So, let's see how the next 6 weeks go.  Yeah, I know, the seasonal temperature outlook didn't work out so well. Many other published winter outlooks went in the same direction.  Discouraged?...Never!  I look at it as a challenge.  I enjoy preparing the daily forecasts, but I really enjoy pouring over past local weather stats and patterns.  What has happened once before will no doubt repeat itself at some point in the future.   I say this  many times, the weather is gonna do what it wants to do!  And, you can depend on us to tell you what's going on!

David




Some Showers Thursday, But A Better Soaking Possible Early Next Week

02/06/13

Clouds and showers return for Thursday through early Friday.  Rainfall amounts do not appear to be that heavy, but could be for early next week.

CLOUDS & SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY

An approaching system will bring clouds back to the area Wednesday night and into Thursday.  The first slug of moisture in advance of a cold front should pass by Thursday afternoon and evening.  The "heaviest" rain will this system should be along the Gulf Coast, with mainly off and on showers locally and rainfall amounts staying under 1/3 of an inch through early Friday.  The main cold front should slide through early Friday and still produce some showers Friday morning, then drier into the afternoon and some clearing by Friday evening and night.

WEEKEND STARTS NICE

Saturday still looks nice to begin the second weekend of February.  It should be a bit chilly during the morning hours with temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s.  But, skies should be sunny to partly sunny through the afternoon with temperatures topping out in the upper 50s (near 60 south).

Clouds return Saturday night and into Sunday.  Some showers begin to move in Sunday afternoon and through Sunday night.  A more widespread coverage of rain later Monday and even into Tuesday as a series of systems moves through with a very active southwesterly flow.  Model rainfall projections still look robust with a range of 1"-2" possible.  The longer range GFS model even introduces a possible low pressure system developing on Wednesday which could push across the Southeast and Tennessee Valley.  "If" such a scenario took place, then some thunderstorms would be possible during that time frame.  And, of course, more rain.  We'll keep an eye on that as that is still a week away!

COLDER TEMPS STILL POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK

Winter continues to take a break across not just the Tennessee Valley, but for most of the southern 1/3 of the US.  That pattern could finally break late next week as a northwesterly flow returns and possibly a deep "trough" in the jet over the central and eastern US.  This could mean a colder than average pattern by late next week and into the start of the week of the 18th.  Some of you have already asked me about any snow with the possible cold air.  Such long range projections are just in the mind of a computer being greater than 10 days out.  So, let's see how deep the trough develops late next week.  And, if sufficiently cold we'll watch any activity from the southern jet.  That's about all you can do as long range computer model forecasts are pure speculation.

MID-SEASON UPDATE

As you know, each year I put out a Winter Outlook.  And, during the first week of February, I usually have a mid season status report.  This year is no different.  I will have an update on Winter 2013 so far coming up on Thursday.  It's always fun to discuss stats!

David Glenn




Above Average Temps & Rainfall Chances

02/05/13

Spring-like temperatures should continue for the next few days, but some rain chances are on the horizon.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS NICE!

Some patchy fog during the morning Wednesday, but otherwise a nice day ahead.  A partly to mostly sunny sky with afternoon temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s.  A nice afternoon to be outside!

SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE FOR THURSDAY

A fast moving system should bring clouds back to the Tennessee Valley Thursday.  And, some showers will follow especially during the afternoon.  This round of rain and system overall is not being handled well by forecast models.  The NAM model projects a low rain total of 0.15", while the GFS is quite wet with a possible 0.84" amount late Thursday through early Friday.  The European model a little drier with 0.10" or so.  And, the coverage of showers looks spotty in nature.  So, this should not be a big rain making system.  The chance for scattered showers should exist from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.  Clouds may be stubborn to exit Friday, but conditions looks dry Friday night and into Saturday.

NICE START TO THE WEEKEND

Saturday is still looking good overall.  Some morning clouds giving way to a mix of sun and clouds.  Afternoon temperatures should reach the upper 50s to even some low 60s south.  More clouds should move in Saturday night and into Sunday.  With the additional cloud cover, Sunday's afternoon temperatures should hold in the mid/upper 50s.

SOME SOAKING RAINFALL MONDAY

The next rain making system should be a good soaking locally.  This system should tap in to deeper Gulf moisture and start to move some showers back to the Tennessee Valley late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.  Rainfall amounts light to begin with, but the coverage and rainfall amounts should increase through Monday.  Computer forecast model rainfall projections remain quite impressive with the GFS model projecting close to 2" while the European model is averaging near 1.5".  The chance of rain should continue through early Tuesday, then possibly drier into Tuesday afternoon.  The European model prolongs the rain event into Wednesday with a second system moving in right on the heels of the first one.  So, we will keep an eye on this for next week.  Either way, a wet start to the upcoming week is possible.

SEASONAL TEMPS RETURNING LATE NEXT WEEK.

Following the rain, temperatures could finally return to seasonal levels and actually start to feel more like February.  By next Wednesday, high temps could ease back to the 40s and lows back in the 30s.  Below freezing mornings possibly returning by late next week.  Until that time temperatures should remain above average.

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




A Milder Week Ahead....Heavy Rain Chance Early Next Week

02/04/13

After a wild weather week last week, we should have a more tranquil week weather wise this week.  Milder afternoons are also possible as well.

SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

A weak system moves through the Tennessee Valley during the early morning hours of Tuesday.  This could produce some periods of light rain/drizzle before sunrise Tuesday and through about lunch time.  Any rainfall amounts should remain very light.  Drier through the afternoon with mid to possibly upper 50s as a southwest wind continues.

LOOKING GOOD WEDNESDAY!

Wednesday is shaping up to be a very nice day!  Some patchy fog early should give way to a partly to mostly sunny sky.  Chilly early on with temperatures in the mid 30s.  But, by afternoon, temperatures should reach the mid/upper 50s in most locations, but possibly as high as 60 in areas to the south.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY

Our next rain producing system should approach us by late Thursday.  Expect increasing cloud cover Thursday, but again quite mild for this time of year with an afternoon high near 60.  Computer model guidance differs a bit on the timing of the rain moving in with the GFS model holding off any rain locally until Thursday night while the European model favors Thursday afternoon.  For this reason, I am including a slight chance for rain moving in Thursday afternoon with increasing chances Thursday night.

Off and on showers should continue Friday before ending Friday evening.  Overall rainfall amounts could average between .50" to .80".  So, the rain does not appear to be heavy at this time.

NICE START TO THE WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY A WET END

Drier conditions should move back in just in time to start the weekend Saturday.  Right now, it looks as if we could have a partly sunny sky with temperatures through the afternoon once again above average as we near the 60 degree mark.  Soak up Saturday, because some soaking rain could move back in later Sunday through Monday.

The next system for Sunday through Monday could provide some heavier rainfall totals locally.  Scattered showers possibly beginning Sunday afternoon with more widespread rain Sunday night and into Monday.  Computer model guidance suggests that rainfall totals could really start to add up with the GFS model projection of possibly 1.40" through Monday evening and the European model projecting a 1" to 2" range through Monday night with even heavier localized totals.

Temperatures through this period should remain just above seasonal averages with afternoon highs in the upper 50s through Monday and lows during this period in the low 40s.

COLDER TEMPERATURES HOLDING OFF UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE NEXT WEEK

This milder than average temperature pattern should continue until possibly late next week.  Longer range projections bring a possible shot of colder than average air back to our region by Thursday and Friday of next week.  We'll continue to keep an eye on that and all of the weather changes listed above.  You can always depend on us for updates!

David Glenn






Weekend Outlook

02/01/13

A wintry start, but sunny end to the weekend.

Another "clipper" system should move through the Tennessee Valley Saturday.  This should keep skies cloudy along with a chance for a wintry mix of rain/snow showers.  Moisture amounts should be light limiting any widespread problems.  This should mainly occur from late morning and into the afternoon before quickly moving out.  The usual spots along the Cumberland Plateau and Blue Ridge Mtns could have some spotty light accumulation.  Temperatures will be chilly, but should reach the low 40s as a southwest wind kicks in ahead of the clipper.  Higher elevations could stay in the upper 30s.  So, temperatures should be above freezing as the clipper slides through the area.

By Saturday evening, any remaining flurries quickly end, then drier overnight with a low near 30.  Sunday looks dry, though it may begin cloudy.  Eventually by afternoon a mix of sun and clouds with a high in the upper 40s.  If we can get a little more sunshine earlier, some areas could reach above 50.

A milder trend takes over for much of next week with highs mainly in the low 50s and morning lows in the 30s.  A temperature trend which is close to average for this time of year.

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Windy Again, But This Time It's Colder

01/30/13

My thoughts are with all of those affected by Wednesday's storms.

The severe storms rolled through as expected during the day Wednesday.  Strong wind gusts and heavy periods of rain were common, but unfortunately some experienced damage.  The strong storm that produced the tornado from Floyd Co, Bartow Co & Gordon Co was where most of the damage occurred locally. 

The threat of severe weather is over, but the wind will continue to howl through the night and into Thursday.  The wind will not be bringing a return chance of storms, but instead usher in some much colder air through Thursday and Friday.  As the cold air sweeps in some pockets of flurries or even some light sleet/snow will be possible from time to time.  No major problems expected, but a dusting in spots at higher elevations.  Temperatures by early Thursday morning should drop into the lower 30s along with a brisk WNW wind at 15-25mph with gusts above 30mph.

Thursday should again be windy at times.  Morning clouds giving way to a mix of clouds and sun and high temperatures only in the mid 40s.  A continued brisk west wind at 15-20mph. 

Another clipper system dives southward from the northwest and could usher in some even colder air with temperatures falling into the 20s late Friday night.  This clipper system could even produce a period of light snow showers and flurries Friday night.  Again, any accumulation light and mainly at higher elevations.  The rest of Friday looks breezy and cold with highs only in the mid 30s.  Some mountain locations may not even get above the freezing mark of 32.

Winter is back for a couple of days!

David Glenn




Severe Weather Update

01/29/13

The chance for severe weather continues locally for Wednesday.

WINDY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
Local wind speeds should gradually pick up late in the night and through Wednesday morning in advance of the cold front.  The strong southerly breezes will average between 15-25mph with some higher gusts (especially at higher elevations).  A Wind Advisory is in effect because of this.  Please secure any loose items in your yard (lawn furniture, garbage cans, trampolines, etc). 

Much stronger wind gusts will be possible as the line of storms approaches Wednesday morning.  Some gusts could exceed 60-70mph in spots with some storms.

TIMING OF WEDNESDAY'S STORMS
Based on data Tuesday evening, the time frame from 7am - 2pm is the possible window for when severe storms could occur locally.  Keep in mind that with systems likes this, lines of t-storms can both slow down and speed up, so we will be watching the radar trends through the early morning hours.

The coverage of showers should increase during the night, especially late.  The greater threat for storms developing toward morning.  We will be watching not only for the potential line of severe storms, but also any stronger cells that develop in advance of that line. 

The threat of strong to severe storms should ease by late afternoon from west to east.  Again, depending upon the continued speed of the system.

TAKE ANY WARNINGS SERIOUSLY
I know most of you do this anyway, but I wanted to stress this point for this particular storm system.  In my job, I NEVER want to scare anyone.  Instead, my goal is to make sure our viewers stay alert and are prepared.  Due to the possibility of damaging wind gusts with some of the storms, it will be important to seek proper shelter from the wind even if your county is under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.  I have said many times that you should treat a Severe Thunderstorm Warning like you would a Tornado Warning because of the threat of damaging wind gusts.

HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
Heavy downpours could accompany the line of storms Wednesday.  Rainfall amounts could average between 1" to 1.5" and even a few spots near 2".  Situations like this are hard to pinpoint for exact locations due to individual storm cells. So, while some areas could see the amounts listed above, there will also be the possibility for some locations to see less than that.  Just be aware of the heavy rain potential especially in you live in a area prone to flash flooding.  And, be careful traveling!


BE AWARE AND STAY ALERT
As we have done in the past, the StormTrack 9 Team will keep you updated every step of the way.  A lot of folks have asked me about the threat of tornadoes.  I realize that nobody likes to even hear that word.  And, trust me, I don't like saying it.  But, you have to be aware that tornadoes cannot be ruled out with this system.  Primary threats are damaging wind gusts and heavy rain.  But, we will have to watch for any supercell storms that might develop in advance of a squall line.  Then, in advance of the front, the possible squall line that develops could have isolated tornadoes develop.  I certainly hope this does not happen, but you have to be aware of the possibility.

Be sure your family has a safety plan and knows what to do and where to go should your neighborhood be placed under any warnings. 

STAY INFORMED
The StormTrack 9 Team offers several ways for you to stay informed of severe weather.

- Watch/Warning Map updates on the screen scrolling information on Newschannel 9.  Continuous weather coverage.

- Click Here for the Newschannel 9 Web Page

- Click Here for the StormTrack 9 Zoom Radar

- Click Here for information on NOAA Weather Alert Radios & S.A.M.E county codes

Follow us on Facebook....."WTVC-TV NewsChannel 9 News"....."Meteorologist David Glenn WTVC"........"StormTrack 9 Weather WTVC-TV"

Follow us on Twitter....@StormTrack9Dave.....@StormTrack9Bill....@StormTrack9Dish

You can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Storm Prediction Center Outlook For Wednesday

01/29/13

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to include the Tennessee Valley in the "Slight Risk" category for the possibility of severe storm development on Wednesday.  More specifically, the SPC has outlined most of our viewing area for a 30% chance of storms reaching severe levels.  This means that some storms could produce damaging wind, hail and the chance for tornadoes cannot be ruled out.You can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team for updates.....(David Glenn)

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Storm Prediction Center Outlook For Wednesday


Severe Storms Possible Wednesday

01/28/13

Strong to severe storms are still a possibility for Wednesday.

An approaching low pressure system and trailing cold front could create an outbreak of strong to severe storms across the Southeast beginning Tuesday night through Wednesday.  Locally, the timing could be around sunrise Wednesday through the afternoon.  Late Monday night model data shows the system slowing down a bit as it approaches which could keep most of the day locally on Wednesday wet with the chance of storms.

This type of set up could allow for a squall line to approach locally.  These types of squall lines can produce damaging wind gusts that could reach 60-70mph at times along with periods of heavy rain.  The tornado threat cannot be ruled out.  Squall lines can have what are known as "bowing segments" where the upper level winds can punch even stronger and even allow for a quick spin up of tornadic activity.  So, you have to be aware and remain alert that an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain could also cause ponding on roadways.

As of late Monday, the Storm Prediction Center placed our viewing area in the "Slight Risk" category for the chance of severe storms Wednesday.  Parts of central Mississippi, Arkansas and Louisiana have been placed in a higher category of a "Moderate Risk" for Tuesday.  Could our risk category change?  Maybe, but it depends on the development and evolution of the system through Tuesday.  And, that's the key.  There is simply no way of knowing this far in advance if a tornado will strike a specific location.  As always, we will continue to track the system and continue to provide timely updates.

If you own a NOAA weather alert radio, now would be a good time just to make sure that the batteries are fresh and that it is programmed correctly.

You can always depend on the StormTrack 9 Team for updates!

David Glenn




Storm Prediction Center Outlook For Wednesday

01/28/13

The Storm Prediction Center has our area in the slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Wednesdsay.  We will be tracking that weather until it passes.  Bill Race

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Storm Prediction Center Outlook For Wednesday


Big Warm Up Followed By Some Midweek Storms

01/27/13

Another huge swing in temperatures is expected over the next few days.  And, as is usually the case, big winter warm ups usually lead to some thunderstorms as the air masses collide. A southerly breeze takes over through Tuesday which should first warm temperatures to the upper 50s Monday, then well into the 60s and even near 70 by Tuesday. The record high by Tuesday is 73 which occurred in 1932.  As the warm sector takes over the Southeast and Tennessee Valley, it sets the stage for a potential round of heavy rain and severe storms as a cold front approaches Tuesday night through Wednesday.  The latest computer model guidance suggests the possibility of a squall line (line of storm storms) pushing across the region during the time frame from the early morning hours of Wednesday to the afternoon.  These types of squall lines can bring the chance of damaging wind gusts and heavy rain.  The chance for tornadoes cannot be ruled out either.  Squall lines can at times have quick spin ups within the line for possible tornado development.  Of course, we certainly hope that does not happen, but we want to make you aware of the possibilities that can exist with systems like this.  You can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team for updates!




Freezing Rain In Spots Possible Friday Morning

01/24/13

A Freezing Rain Advisory has been placed in effect for a large part of our viewing area from 4am ET to 7pm ET Friday.

Late night computer model projections continue to push the start time of any precipitation closer to sunrise.  This really narrows the window or time frame of how long we would have to deal with a wintry mix (mid morning to early afternoon)

Temperatures should continue to steadily drop to the upper 20s & lower 30s by sunrise.    Generally a light precipitation event, but it doesn't take much to make things icy in spots.  The overall set up is a cold air mass in place at the surface, while warm, moist air flows in aloft.  Rain should fall into the colder air mass near the surface and result in some periods of sleet and freezing rain through Friday morning and early afternoon.

Temperatures might even drop a couple of degrees once the precipitation begins.  This is called evaporative cooling as the precipitation evaporates before reaching the ground and thus cools the surrounding air.  This could cause temperatures to drop to the upper 20s. Sometimes with events like this in the past, the precipitation could begin as some flurries, then to sleet and eventually freezing rain as the air mass warms just above the surface.  Remember, freezing rain is precipitation that falls as rain, then freezes on contact with the ground or other exposed objects. 

Overall, this should be a short event. Temperatures should eventually sneak above the freezing mark by early afternoon which should limit the time frame of icing issues.  The problem around our viewing area is that the rate of warming will vary due to elevation and colder valley pockets.  A southerly wind should get those temperatures above freezing for most of the viewing area during the afternoon.

As I mentioned earlier, precipitation amounts remain patchy and light.  If there was no cold air in place, we would just be talking about a cloudy day with some drizzle and periods of light rain.  But, with the cold air in place, even just 0.10" of rain can cause some icing problems. That is the reason for concern especially during the morning and especially at higher elevations.

As I always say, the weather is going to do what it wants to do. And, we will track it every step of the way.  We'll have updates throughout the day Friday.

David Glenn




Wintry Weather Update For Friday Morning

01/23/13

No big changes to my earlier post about the chance of a wintry mix Friday morning.  The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for a large part of our viewing area beginning Thursday night and through Friday.

The system moving in still primarily looks to be a freezing rain, sleet issue than that of snow.  Moisture amounts remain light, but when you are dealing with the chance of freezing drizzle or rain, just a little bit can make things slippery.

I continue to keep an eye on the latest computer model data in an attempt to narrow down the timing.  The leading edge of some moisture could move in during the predawn hours Friday with the main swath of moisture around sunrise and through the morning hours.  This tapers off during the late afternoon.  Overall precipitation amounts still look light with most models projecting under .30". 

Temperatures should be in the upper 20s Friday morning as the precip moves in.  So, as this happens this could start as a freezing drizzle/freezing rain, sleet situation.  Temperatures will be slow to warm above freezing only reaching the mid 30s by afternoon.  And, as we all know, that warming will happen at different times all across the area due to elevation and colder valley pockets.

Even though moisture amounts look light, even freezing drizzle can cause some slippery conditions on bridges, overpasses and roadways.  Also, this could accumulate lightly on exposed objects.  This does not appear to be a long lasting event, mainly around 12 hours or so (3am-3pm), but as always we will continue to monitor.  Some light snow could mix in at some spots, but the main chance for accumulating snow should be well to our northeast over the Smoky Mtns/Blue Ridge Mtns and areas of northeast Tennessee.

As always, you can depend on us for updates!

David Glenn




Cold Temps Remain...Keep An Eye On Friday Morning

01/22/13

A persistent northwest flow aloft will keep temperatures below seasonal averages through Saturday.  We will have to keep an eye on two disturbances moving through that could squeeze out some moisture with the cold air still in place, especially Friday morning.

SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT

One of these disturbances will slide through the Tennessee Valley Wednesday night through early Thursday morning.  This should be overall a moisture starved system, but there could be just enough to squeeze out some drizzle or flurries.  None of the major forecast models show anything more than 0.05" of liquid precip falling into a dry air mass.  Temperatures will be in the low/mid 30s through Thursday morning, so during the night Wednesday night we will keep an eye on this very weak system.  At this time is does not look problematic.

KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING

The next system approaches the Tennessee Valley Thursday evening and continues through Friday.  This system could be a little more problematic with the cold air being stubborn about moving out.  A warming "aloft" should occur through Thursday night which should produce rain up above, but it could fall into a freezing air mass just above and at the surface.  This could result in a wintry mix Thursday night through Friday morning.  This means a mix of rain/sleet & freezing rain primarily and even some snowflakes in spots.

The problem with scenarios like this is that all parts of the viewing area will not warm at the same rate or time.  Higher elevations and colder valley pockets will only slowly warm.  Eventually through the day Friday, temps at all locations should reach the upper 30s to lower 40s leaving us with a chilly, wet afternoon.

Precipitation amounts are very light with model ranges from 0.15"-0.30".  Light, but could cause problems if some areas get freezing rain for a period of time during the morning. 

Once the system passes by Friday afternoon, the main area of precipitation should move out and colder air returns.  There could be some "wrap around" snow flurries or light snow showers, but at this time, that round of precipitation does not appear to be a problem.  Breezy and colder Saturday with low 40s under a partly sunny sky.

So, a lot to watch in the days ahead.  As always, you can depend on us for updates.

David Glenn




Coldest Air Of The Season So Far

01/21/13

So far, we have been spared of any deep arctic outbreaks here in the Tennessee Valley.  Just take a peek at the record low for both today and this past Sunday...(-9)...that's 9 BELOW zero back in 1985.  I remember that arctic outbreak very well.  I was a senior in high school and that frigid air arrived on a Sunday morning accompanied by a couple of inches of dry, powdery snow which we don't get that often around here.  Nor do we have below zero readings that often.

Now, with that being said, the cold air coming in Monday night and Tuesday doesn't sound that bad.  But, considering that the coldest temperature so far this winter was 25 degrees on December 22nd, the low 20s on the way are going to be quite cold.  Breezy at times with a rapid drop in temperature to the lower 20s late Monday night through Tuesday morning.  A few areas away from the city could drop to the upper 10s.  Tuesday's high temperatures should stay in the 30s along with a wind chill in the 10s and 20s.  Mountain locations might not even get above 32.  Another very cold night Tuesday night as temperatures drop to the low 20s with some 10s possible again.

Temperatures should moderate a bit for Wednesday as the mercury climbs to the mid 40s by afternoon.  Low 50s return for Thursday & Friday.

MOSTLY DRY WITH THE CHILL IN PLACE

The first question asked to me when I talk about very cold air is will there be any snow.  Not this time as it will be quite dry with the cold air in place.  A fast moving system could move in late Wednesday and early Thursday that could squeeze out some sprinkles or flurries, but not much expected.  More in the way of snow showers over the Smoky Mountains.

WET BY FRIDAY, COLDER AGAIN SATURDAY

The system moving in for late Thursday and Friday looks wet as temperatures will have warmed as the arctic air moves out.  Off and on showers Friday with temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s.  The rain should taper off Friday evening as some colder air moves in.  There could be some periods of flurries or some light snow showers Friday night through early Saturday.  This would be the "wrap around" variety of flakes which typically does not cause any major problems locally, but could provide some accumulation in the higher peaks of the Smokies.

Saturday's highs should be in the mid 40s accompanied by a strong northwest wind.  Lows both Saturday and Sunday morning dipping back to the mid 20s.  Low 50s return by Monday along with a possible return chance of rain.

HD SET DEBUTS THIS SUNDAY (27th)

Our brand new HD set finally makes its debut this Sunday, January 27th.  So much time and work has been put into this project and the final pieces are being put in place.  I know many of you are tired of seeing the "grey carpet" temporary set, but once you see the new set, you will see why it was worth the wait. 

As I type this post, I am in our brand new weather center.  It is more spacious and allows more access to the weather computers for on-air use.  I am so excited for Sunday to get here and you can see the results!

David Glenn




A Mild Holiday Weekend, But Some Colder Air For Next Week

01/18/13

As expected, sunshine finally returned Friday and it should stick around for the weekend and early next week.

A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND

Expect a lot of sunshine Saturday.  After the cold start in the upper 20s, temperatures should reach the low/mid 50s by afternoon (near 50 local mountains).  A light breeze from the south will help to warm temperatures as well.  Dry conditions should continue through Sunday and Monday (Dr Martin Luther King Day).  Temperatures will be even milder Sunday with mid/upper 50s, then ease back to the upper 40s on Monday.  Low temperatures both mornings in the low 30s.

A SHORT LIVED ARCTIC BLAST BY TUESDAY

Some of the coldest air of the season so far could pay us a visit by Tuesday.  A brisk northerly wind should drop high temperatures to the 30s Tuesday and the wind chill should make it feel even colder.  Low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday morning could average between the upper 10s to lower 20s.  Temperatures on Wednesday will again struggle to get out of the 30s.  Even though it will be cold, it will also be dry, so no snow will accompany this chill.

LATE WEEK RAIN

Longer range computer models are fairly consistent with bringing the next possible chance of rain by next Friday.  By then, the arctic air will have eroded and high temperatures will have returned to the 40s and 50s.  An approaching front could usher in some rain during the day Friday and into Saturday.

David Glenn




Let There Be Sun!!!!!!!!

01/17/13

After 9 straight days of measurable precipitation, the sun finally returns to the Tennessee valley Friday!

UPPER LOW PRODUCES ABOUT WHAT EXPECTED

The "upper low" that moved through on Thursday did about what we thought it would do.  First, the ground would stay warm and wet and temps above freezing except mountains.  Second, the precip would be a mix here and there of periods of rain and periods of snow.  Any accumulation was expected to be scattered and light due to the conditions listed above and so far that has been the case.  Some mountain tops locations had a decent ground covering, but not all the mountain tops.  Again, this was due to the scattered nature of this type of system.

WHY WERE THERE DIFFERENT WARNINGS & ADVISORIES?

I had that question asked often.  Our viewing area is quite unique in the fact that it is covered by 4 different NWS offices (Huntsville, Nashville, Morristown & Peachtree City).  Each office has a different set of criteria for winter weather events.  For example, the NWS Peachtree City considers a 1"-3" snowfall to fit a Winter Storm criteria for a Watch or Warning.  However, the NWS Morristown considers that same amount to only fit the criteria for a Winter Weather Advisory and not a Winter Storm.  So, the definitions are different for each office, which only adds to confusion in situations like Thursday.

These various offices also projected higher expected accumulation amounts than what I projected.  So, naturally, I get email about a wrong forecast for a 3" snowfall forecast, when that was not mine.  But, that's just folks blowing off steam if they are disappointed by a lack of snow.  I like snow too, so I understand how folks get upset.  But, I was pleased with the forecast I put out there Wednesday night for a mainly scattered and light wintry event.

Please be aware that come icy spots are possible Friday morning as temperatures dip to the mid & upper 20s.  So, be extra careful driving late Thursday night and early Friday morning.

LET'S TALK ABOUT SOME SUN FOR A CHANGE!

The giant, bright orb in the sky Friday will be something called the sun!  Yes, we haven't seen our bright smiling friend for a while.  The sunshine and blue sky will be a welcome sight all across the Tennessee Valley.  It may be a bit cool during the day, but I don't think it will matter to most.  High temperatures should only reach the mid 40s and a lighter north wind at 10mph.

Quite cold again Friday night with a low in the mid/upper 20s, but another day full of sun Saturday with temperatures near 52.  Overall, the forecast looks dry for most of the next 5-7 days.  However, a shot of much colder air could roll in by Tuesday pushing our high temperatures down into the upper 30s with low dropping to the lower 20s and even some teens possible.  Just a reminder from mother nature that it is January after all!

David Glenn




Wintry Thursday, But Sunny Friday

01/16/13

After days of rain, it could finally come to an end Thursday.  But, some snow could mix in before ending.  Sunshine finally returns Friday!

RAIN/SNOW CHANCE FOR THURSDAY

This is our first wintry threat for the season so far.  An "upper low" will make its way from the lower Mississippi Valley northeast toward north Alabama and north Georgia.  This type of system has very cold air aloft and can quickly bring that cold air to the surface.  This is why what could start out as rain Thursday could become a period of snow before ending Thursday evening.  These types of "upper" lows can be very tricky. Why?  Because computer models have a hard time projecting precipitation amounts and type.  Also, the rapid rate of cooling aloft can happen quickly, which can cause a faster change from rain to frozen precipitation.

So, as we look ahead to Thursday, this "tricky" upper low can cause rain and snow in different places at different times.  It should start out wet, then windy and colder with temperatures falling into the 30s.  This should first start to occur at higher elevations around the city and west as temperatures should cool much faster there around late morning and through the afternoon.  The warm, wet ground will initially prevent accumulation, but exposed objects and grassy areas could have some accumulation.  How much?  The scattered nature of this type of event is the most difficult part of forecasting upper lows.  The warm, wet ground comes into play as well, but systems like this have been known to produce a couple of inches quickly with some of the bursts of snow. 

Likewise, valley locations will be dealing with a warm, wet ground.  A rainy morning becomes a mix of raindrops and snowflakes through the afternoon, then some periods of snow as the afternoon goes on through the early evening.  Accumulations are again possible, but scattered in nature.  Unfortunately, not everybody will get snow evenly across the area.  Mainly light amounts at valley locations because of the wet ground with scattered areas of an inch or less.  There could be some spots that do get some better bursts of snow showers than others, so a few valley areas could see a little more.  That's just the nature of these upper lows.

Heavier snow amounts are expected over the Blue Ridge Mtns of GA, TN & NC as well as the Smoky Mtns with several inches and heavy at times through Thursday night and Friday morning.

Because of the varying rate of rain/snow change across the area and amounts, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team for updates throughout the day.

WHAT ABOUT DRIVING CONDITIONS?

Higher elevations could drop to the freezing mark faster through the afternoon and roadways could become very slick.  So, please use caution at higher elevations Thursday afternoon and night.  Valley locations should be primarily wet even with the snowflakes through late afternoon as temperatures should stay just above freezing.  However, after sunset, temperatures could quickly drop below freezing at allow for icy spots to develop.  Overnight temperatures Thursday night should drop into the mid 20s.  Caution is advised for traveling Thursday night.

FINALLY!...SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY

Any problems with wintry conditions should end after Friday morning.  Sunshine is expected throughout the day with highs in the mid/upper 40s.  20s again Friday night, then sunny to partly sunny and low/mid 50s Saturday!  Mostly dry through the extended period.  But, much colder air could move in by Monday with highs possibly dropping to the 30s again.

Again, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team for updates throughout the day.

David Glenn




Winter Remains On Hold For Now

01/09/13

Many of you are double checking the calendar just to make sure that really is January considering how warm it is and will continue to be.  Winter remains on hold for now with more seasonal temperatures not expected until some time late next week.

SOGGY & WARM THROUGH FRIDAY

Rainfall amounts should remain light, but the off and on nature of showers will continue through Friday.  Otherwise, expect a cloudy sky with high temperatures in the mid/upper 60s both Thursday and again Friday.  Shower chances should taper off late Friday and into Friday Night.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND

An unseasonably warm pattern will continue through the weekend.  We will be in between weather systems, so the rain chances will remain small.  The big story will be the fact that temperatures could be near record high levels.  Highs on Saturday could reach around 70 and even low 70s.  The record high for Saturday is 71 from way back in 1890.  70-72 possible again Sunday, but the record high that day is 74 from 1960.  Temperatures should gradually cool away from these record levels into next week as rain chances increase.

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

A continuous stream of Gulf moisture could move across the Southeast and Tennessee Valley Monday through Wednesday of next week.  This could result in some heavy rainfall locally.  A quick scan of global forecast model data shows the possibility of rain in the 2"-4" range across the Southeast region.  The bulk of that possible Monday through early Wednesday.  Temperatures should also start to cool a bit, though still above seasonal levels through midweek.  Highs cooling to the 50s through Wednesday with lows likewise cooling back to the 40s.

MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK

Winter feeling temperatures could return for late next week as morning temperatures could drop back to near 32 by next Friday and Saturday morning.  Neither of the global models show a strong Arctic invasion as of yet for the Southeast/Tennessee Valley.  But, next weekend should feel more like it should be for this time of year.

Longer range signals still show the possibility of a more seasonal pattern continuing through late month.  So, don't put away those winter coats just yet, we still have a long way to go until Spring.  Snow lovers out there I'm sure are not liking this pattern.  But, again, we are still early in the season and snow chances locally can happen well into March.  I like snow and as always, I'll keep you posted on even the remotest chance locally as the season goes on!

David Glenn


 




2012 Local Weather Stats & A Look Ahead To January

01/01/13

2012 ended up being a warmer and just a slightly drier year for the Tennessee Valley.  Rainfall for the year totalled 50.78" which was just 1.70" below average.  Temperatures were quite warm, especially during the 1st half of the year followed by a cooler than average second half of the year.  But, if you totalled the average temperature for each month, we ended up with an average temperature of 63.5 degrees for the 12 month period.  Compared to average, this was about 2.7 degrees above average.  The coldest temperature for 2012 locally was 19 degrees which occurred on both January 4th and February 12th.  The hottest temperatures was an all time record breaking 107 degrees which occured on consecutive days of June 30th and July 1st.

Aside from the temperature and rainfall data, 2012 will also be remembered for a couple of other weather events.  The March 2nd tornadoes that brought destruction to Harrison & surrouding communities was a devastating start to the Spring season for an already weary region because of the 2011 tornadoes.  On July 5th, widespread wind damage again occurred across the viewing area, but not from a tornado. Instead, this was from a gust front that was caused by a collapsing line of storms to our north,  Wind damage resembled that of what tornadoes could do.

DRYING OUT AFTER A WET START TO 2013

Most areas locally had a good soaking of rain on New Years Day. Rainfall amounts range from 0.70" to 1.10" locally.  Drier and seasonably cold air will move in before sunrise Wednesday allowing for temperatures to dip into the mid 30s, but near 32 on the mountaintops.  With some leftover moisture, there could be a few areas across the higher elevations that could have a brief period of flurries or even some freezing rain.  So, be aware that some icy spots are possible along the higher terrain through early Wednesday morning.  The rest of Wednesday should be dry, but seasonably chilly with highs in the mid/upper 40s.  Morning clouds should give way to some afternoon sun.  Clouds should try and move back in from the south and east Wednesday night and into Thursday.  Most areas locally should stay dry, but some sprinkles are possible over the eastern mountains.

A TAD COLDER FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND.

The passage of another cold front should provide a chilly day Friday with breezy conditions and afternoon highs only in the low/mid 40s.  This should be a dry front with precip chances very low.  Temperatures should dip into the mid 20s Friday night.  By Saturday, temperatures should recover just a little bit with upper 40s by afternoon but along with more cloud cover.  A slight chacne of rain could occur early Sunday, but otherwise cloudy with upper 40s again.  Much milder air moves in for early next week with low/mid 50s possible next Tuesday and Wednesday.

SNOW CHANCES ON HOLD FOR NOW

With the arrival of January comes the increased interest of our local snow chances.  Other than a brief wintry mix early Wednesday morning, local snow chances look pretty slim through the rest of this week and even most of next week.  A strong ridge of high pressure along the Southeast coast is being projected by many of the global models pointing to a period of milder conditions across the region.  The NOAA 30 day outlooks projected an above normal January for temperatures over the Southeast and Tennessee Valley along with above normal rain chances,  Typically, this does not mean it will be warm and wet everyday, but what the "average" could be by months end.  So, even though January could have a milder start, there is always the chance that the patterns could reverse.  Time will be the determing factor of that.  So, while snow chances remain low in the short term, there is still a lot of winter yet to to go.  Only time will tell....and we will be here to tell you about it!

David Glenn

 


 




2013 Starts Wet Locally

12/31/12

A wet start to 2013 can be expected across the Tennessee Valley.  Just as we ring in the new year, rain chances will increase locally and continue throughout the day New Years Day. Model forecast data indicates that possibly over an inch of rain could fall before ending Tuesday night. Seasonal temperatures should follow for the rest of the shortened work week.  High temperatures should stay in the 40s through Wednesday with lows in the mid/upper 30s.  By Thursday, just a brief rise to near 50 by the afternoon before some colder air moves in for the end of the week and the weekend.  A breezy Friday with low/mid 40s by afternoon and 20s both Friday and Saturday morning.  A nice warming trend should follow by late weekend and early the following week with highs in the 50s.  




The Weekend & Christmas Outlook

12/21/12

Happy Winter!  As expected, the new season felt like it should on the first day....COLD!

SEASONAL WEEKEND
Temperatures Saturday morning should be quite cold in the low/mid 20s.  Full sunshine and not as windy through the afternoon with high temperatures in the mid/upper 40s.  A clear sky follows for Saturday evening, then a few clouds for late in the overnight hours.  It will still be cold Saturday night with low temperatures in the upper 20s.  Increasing cloud cover for Sunday and slightly milder with afternoon temperatures reaching the low 50s.  A chance for rain is possible by late day.  A better chance for some showers through Monday morning (Christmas Eve)

CHRISTMAS EVE & DAY OUTLOOK
Overall, it still looks like a soggy pattern.  However, there does appear to be some breaks from time to time.  Cloudy skies expected both days. Mainly off and on showers Christmas Eve with afternoon temperatures in the mid 50s.  Some breaks in the showers through late Christmas Eve night and into Christmas morning with a cloudy sky and a low in the 40s.  Christmas Day still looks cloudy and from time to time a passing shower.  Better chances late day and into the night.  Afternoon temperatures could reach the lower 50s Christmas afternoon.  Again, a better coverage for rain locally through Christmas night and into Wednesday.

TURNING COLDER JUST AFTER CHRISTMAS
The day after Christmas, Wednesday, looks wet and eventually colder.  Periods of rain through the morning hours and spilling over into the afternoon.  Colder air could also begin to move in and drop temperatures through the 40s and 30s by late afternoon.  There remains the possibility that the rain could end as a period of flurries or snow showers late Wednesday afternoon and night.  Typically, these "wrap around" type of wintry events do not produce a lot of accumulation, expect lightly at higher elevations.  Nevertheless, the StormTrack 9 Team will be keeping an eye on this in the days ahead.

COLDER LONG RANGE
Finally, it looks like the cold air may stick around for a while as colder air moves in during the middle of next week.  Daily highs could average just a tad below average in the 40s for highs and lows in the 20s through next weekend.  The following week being the first week of 2013 could also exhibit below average temperatures.  Which of course means that we will have to start watching for any moisture to move back again.  As always, use caution when watching long range computer model forecasts beyond 7-10 days.  There tends to always be a wintry event set up in those long range projections.  As I always urge, take it one day at a time and watch for model consistency.  Winter has just begun and as always, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team to keep you updated!

SEE YOU NEW YEAR'S EVE!!!!
My vacation starts on Saturday, so it's time for the holidays and family!  I will be back on the air Monday, New Year's Eve.  Bill Race and Jason Disharoon will keep you updated!  I wish you and your family all the best during this holiday season!

David Glenn




Winter Arrives Right On Time!

12/20/12

Winter officially begins Friday morning at 6:12amET.  And, right on cue, temperatures will be winter-like!

WINDY & COLD FRIDAY
A strong west-northwest wind will continue through the day Friday.  Wind gusts could exceed 30mph at times (especially higher elevations).  Some flurries could fly early along the higher terrain, but no problems are expected.  Some light accumulation is possible at the higher peaks of the Blue Ridge & Smoky Mtns.  The rest of the viewing area should have sunshine returning, but high temperatures Friday should only reach the low/mid 40s (30s mountains).  The Wind Chill throughout the day will vary from the 20s & 30s.

Much colder Friday night with low temperatures dipping to the low/mid 20s.

A DRY & SEASONAL WEEKEND
The weather conditions look good for you last minute shoppers!  The weekend will start off quite cold with temperatures Saturday morning in the low/mid 20s.  Full sunshine through the afternoon with a high in the upper 40s.   Cold again Saturday night with a low in the upper 20s.  Slightly milder Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds and temperatures by the afternoon in the low 50s.  Not quite as cold Sunday night with upper 30s.

COOL, SOGGY CHRISTMAS EVE & DAY
The pattern continues to look cloudy with milder temperatures from Christmas Eve through Christmas Day.  From time to time, we can expect some passing showers through that time.  Morning lows should be in the 30s Monday morning, then rise to the 50s by Christmas Eve afternoon.  Christmas Day continues to look cloudy with again some periods of passing rain showers.  Expect a morning low in the low 40s and an afternoon high in the low 50s.

SOME FLAKES NEXT WEEK?
The slow moving system that could bring some rain Christmas Day could produce even more rain Christmas night and into Wednesday.  As the rain ends Wednesday, colder air could mix in soon enough to possibly allow a period of snow showers before ending later Wednesday night.  It's way too soon to speculate on any accumulation if at all.  But, for those of you wishing for some snow, there is at least the possibility by midweek next week.  So, while there may not be any songs about a white "day after" Christmas, the possibility is there.  Of course, we will have more updates in the days ahead.

David




Rain & Storms Thursday.....Windy & Colder Friday

12/18/12

Another beautiful day is on tape for Wednesday across the Tennessee Valley.  Expect a chilly morning in the 30s, but by afternoon sunshine will help boost temperatures to the low/mid 60s.  A few high clouds by late afternoon, but clouds will rapidly move in Wednesday night with low temperatures only dropping to the 40s.

RAIN & STORMS FOR THURSDAY
A fast moving storm system will bring an abrupt end to our nice weather Thursday.  Most of the day will be cloudy with rain developing.  A few thunderstorms are possible.  There is a "Slight Risk" of severe storms across the region Thursday with the highest risk for gusty winds along a possible line of thunderstorms during the late morning to afternoon time frame.  The threat of rain and storms rapidly diminishes Thursday evening. 

As the cold front approaches and passes, strong wind gusts will be possible.  The wind should shift from the southwest to the northwest at 15-25mph and gusty.

WINDY & MUCH COLDER FRIDAY
Winter officially begins at 6:12am Friday morning.  And, it will feel like it!  For those of you wanting some seasonal chill, Friday is your day!  Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 40s with the wind chill feeling like the 30s throughout the day.  Some flurries or patches of light snow could fly across the higher terrain (especially Smoky & Blue Ridge Mtns) Friday morning.  No problems are expected locally, but the higher peaks of the Smokies could be a sugar coating!  By Friday night, expect a lighter wind and temperatures dipping to the mid 20s.

DRY SEASONAL WEEKEND
The upcoming weekend looks dry and seasonal.  Sunny Saturday, then partly sunny Sunday.  Each morning will be down right cold with temperatures in the mid/upper 20s.  Daily highs will be near 50 Saturday (40s mountains) and low/mid 50s Sunday.

CHRISTMAS EVE & DAY OUTLOOK
The pattern through Christmas Day looks increasingly wet.  It all depends on the speed of a strong storm system moving out of the Plains states. "If" the timing works out like computer models project, then it's possible that we could see increasing clouds Christmas Eve with a few showers possible late.  High temperatures on Christmas Eve could reach the low/mid 50s by afternoon.

"If" the current projections hold, then Christmas Day could be wet across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast.  Temperatures could hold in the upper 40s/lower 50s through the day.  This wet pattern could continue through Wednesday and possibly early Thursday of next week.

Of course, more details in the days ahead!  Longer range model projections still show a possible much colder pattern for late next week and beyond.

David




Nice Weather Returns....Colder Air Still On Tap For Late Week

12/17/12

The Tennessee Valley had a good soaking rainfall from Saturday night through Monday Evening.  Rainfall totals at Lovell Field during that period was around 1.35".  Drier air should move in through Tuesday morning.

LOOKING GOOD TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY
High pressure takes over for Tuesday and Wednesday.  The result will be some nearly perfect weather for you last minute Christmas shoppers!  Sunny for Tuesday and quite mild with afternoon temperatures in the mid/upper 50s.  Even better for Wednesday with sunshine again and afternoon temperatures soaring into the mid 60s!

WET AGAIN THURSDAY
Another storm system approaches the Tennessee Valley Thursday creating another good chance for rain throughout the day.  Some t-storms are again possible as the cold front rolls through late day.  Early computer model projections forecast rainfall amounts between 0.45"-0.75".  Of course a few spots could have more because of some isolated t-storms.  The bulk of the rain falling during the day Thursday and ending late day.

MUCH COLDER FRIDAY....(A FEW FLAKES?)
Colder air moves in behind the cold front late Thursday night through Friday.  This should drop temperatures into the 30s by Friday morning and only allow high temperatures to reach the 40s Friday afternoon.  It is possible for a few periods of flurries or patchy light snow as the cold air moves in.  This is not a scenario for accumulating snow though.  Any chance of this remains brief and confined to higher elevations and not cause any problems.  Just more of a seasonal feel to the air.

The upcoming weekend of Saturday and Sunday looks dry and seasonal with daily highs in the low/mid 50s and morning lows in the 20s & 30s.

CHRISTMAS OUTLOOK
Still a week away, but I still get so many questions :)   Christmas Eve looks dry with increasing clouds and a high in the low 50s after a morning low in the 30s.  Christmas Day could swing from just cloudy to cloudy with a cold rain developing.  This all depends on the speed of a developing storm system that 7 days out could still speed up or slow down.  High temperatures could stay in the 40s.  Again, things can still change over the next few days and I will continue to keep you updated in the days ahead.

The longer range pattern toward the end of the month and start of January still looks gradually colder.  Only time will tell!

David




A Mild Weekend, But The Longer Range Looks Colder

12/14/12

The third weekend of December will again be a little warmer than normal as a southerly flow sets up across the Southeast and Tennessee Valley.  Rain chances should be increasing again especially by Saturday night and into Sunday.  Model rainfall amounts are starting to pick up a bit with the possibility of heavy rain with 1"-2"  locally in the time frame from Saturday night through midday Monday.  Temperatures should stay mild with highs near 60 on Saturday under a cloudy sky and low 60s possible Sunday.

NEXT WEEK OUTLOOK: 
The upcoming work week should start off wet with rain Monday morning, but ending through the afternoon.  Low 60s will again be possible Monday as the rain ends.  A break in the rain on Tuesday and Wednesday with lingering clouds and more seasonal temperatures with afternoon highs in the 60s and morning lows in the 30s.  Another chance of rain could return Thursday through early Friday.  High temperatures should be in the upper 50s Thursday, then much colder air moves in Friday with temperatures falling through the 40s throughout the day.

NEXT WEEKEND
Right now, next weekend looks colder as the upper level pattern changes across the US.  A dry, cold pattern could evolve for the weekend with daily highs possibly only reaching the 40s with lows in the 20s & 30s.

CHRISTMAS OUTLOOK
Christmas Eve & Day are still 10 days away as of this post, so there could still be some changes along the way.  But, the overall pattern projected by a majority of computer models continues to look colder than normal.  Long range models continue to throw out there some potential wintry weather systems following Christmas.  As with any long range model projection, there will be changes, so for now, we'll just continue to watch the pattern which looks cold locally.  More details in the days ahead.

David




Looking Ahead....And A Few Words About Long Range Computer Models

12/11/12

As we approach mid December, I start getting a lot of questions about the Christmas Day forecast.  Thanks to this age of technology that we live in, various national forecasting companies tout their 15 & even 30 day forecasts.  While admirable in theory, the problem is that a lot of times these long range forecasts tend to rotate around one forecast model...typically the GFS model.  So, as a lot of folks look ahead to Christmas Day, these long range forecasts will show a cold Christmas forecast one day, only to project a mild Christmas the very next day.  Likewise with precipitation, a wet Christmas forecast is followed up by a dry one.

This of course starts the flow of email to my inbox.  People want to know what to expect.  So, that is the subject of today's blog post.  As I always caution when looking at longer range forecasts, you have to take it with a grain of salt.  What I tend to do is look at the overall pattern instead of the day to day model forecasts in the long range.  As for the next two weeks, with the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation remaining in the negative, it tends to signal a colder pattern.  The longer range projections of both the European (ECMWF) and US (GFS) are starting to show signs of a colder overall pattern settling in for the East and Southeast US...which includes the Tennessee Valley.

So, then the next question is.....If it's colder, what about snow?  Well, in the short range (next 7 days), there is a slight chance of some flakes on the back side of a wet system early next Wednesday.  That is a "Wrap around" scenario if it occurred which does not bring a lot of local accumulation.  Now, beyond that time and toward Christmas, the models show a few system approaching which "could" get interesting "if" they even developed at all.  You see, it's pure speculation and model fantasy world beyond 7 days.  But, what the models are hinting at, is that a colder overall pattern could be on the horizon.  Therefore, this time of year, you have to be watchful for precipitation with cold air in place.  And, you also have to take weather forecasting one system at a time and leave it at that.

I'll keep you posted on the upcoming Christmas Eve & Day forecast in the days ahead!

David Glenn




The 2012-2013 Tennessee Valley Winter Outlook

11/20/12

THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WINTER OUTLOOK 2012-2013.....(Posted November 20, 2012)

This is one of my favorite times of the year.  I enjoy studying past patterns and weather events, especially the memorable winter ones.  Before I am embark on the study and research for the winter outlook I give credit to my college professors in climatology who stressed, "look to the past to look to the future".  I have never forgotten that and in looking at past similar patterns will hopefully provide the key that unlocks the outlook for the next 3 1/2 months!

So, as we approach the winter of 2012-2013 we are currently in a global pattern that is different from the past 2 winters.  Those winters were dominated by a La Nina (Super La Nina in fact).  The winter of 2010-2011 was a colder version of a La Nina while the 2011-2012 version was warmer.  This year, the equatorial Pacific pattern is that of a weak El Nino.  Now, unlike the 1980s & 1990s with strong El Nino's, this one is different and much weaker.  The other two factors are the still colder Pacific pattern (PDO) and warmer Atlantic pattern (AMO).  The PDO/AMO are unchanged from the past two winters.

You have to keep in mind that there are no set parameters for creating a seasonal forecast.  Many forecasting agencies use different methods.  But, they are heavily weighted on studying past patterns with the PDO/AMO/El Nino/La Nina being dominant.  And, that is also what I do!  Studying past patterns of a Weak El Nino along with a cold PDO and warm AMO enabled me to see some similarities in past patterns here in the Tennessee Valley.

Compiling this past data had some similar winters from the 1960s & 1970s along with a few more recent winters in 2003 & 2006.  With the exception of the winter of 2006, all of these winters exhibited temperatures that were below normal.  Here is another interesting stat, 4 of the 6 patterns that closely matched this year had winter temperatures locally that dipped below 10 degrees.  Overall precipitation patterns were also largely consistent with normal to below normal precipitation (rain & snow combined).  But, before you toss out the sled, here is another interesting stat.  Each of the past winter patterns that closely matched this year had measurable snowfall.  Our average seasonal total is only 4.8 inches but the past patterns were close to that average.  The risk of ice was also present, especially when looking at the pattern of 1972-1973.  That was the winter of one of the worst ice storms in the Tennessee Valley.  I remember that one very well as a 5 year old in Chickamauga!

One other feature that I study during the Autumn months is the overall upper level pattern and storm tracks.  This can often times predict the storm paths/tracks through the upcoming winter.  "If" this Autumns upper level pattern continues, then it could mean a few snow/ice threats could be on the horizon.

Now, even after researching past similar seasons you have to keep in mind that NO two winters are exactly alike.  There may be similarities, but never exactly the same.  Also, one of the other factors that we study year round and especially during the winter months is the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).  These indexes or oscillations can help predict future arctic outbreaks or mild patterns.  Unfortunately, these oscillations cannot be projected months in advance.  Instead, we can peek into the future about 1-2 weeks in advance.  These two oscillations were a huge influence during the very cold, snowy winter of 2010-2011.  So, this will be an index that I will monitor and blog about through the season.

And, yes, I did track the local fogs in August (we had a few), spotted the wooly worms, and saw some fat squirrels running around during the Fall.  I always take into consideration folklore as to never leave a stone unturned!

So, the outlook for this winter is leaning heavily on past statistics.  This winter should not be anything like last year.  It looks like a colder than normal winter can be expected locally.  December could start that trend as colder air may not wait long to roll in.  I also like our snowfall chances this year.  We could have above normal chances for ice/snow through the season.  This could mean several "borderline"scenarios of snow/ice/rain.  Meaning that some frustrating, anxious days of forecasting could be ahead.  Since we could be in that borderline scenario, our chances for ice could increase as well.  I don't know about you, but I would take snow any day over ice!  Our yearly average for snow is only 4.8", and I think we could at least reach that (possibly more if these patterns persist).

Overall precipitation (rainfall) should lean close to normal.  So, hopefully we won't head into Spring with a huge rainfall deficit like the past few years.  This could be an interesting season, because past stats have trended at or just below normal.

So, there ya go!  I absolutely enjoy doing this every year.  And, we'll do a mid season update in late January or so to see how the season is progressing.  Please keep in mind that no matter what past seasonal stats indicate or computer models we track show......the weather is going to do what it wants to do!

The most popular question I get starting in October is, "will we have a White Christmas?".  Well, statistically we have annual chance of between 15%-20%.  So, that's about all you can project this far out.  Personally, I hope we do have another one.  We all sure had fun in 2010 didn't we? :)

No matter what comes our way this season, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team to provide you with forecast updates and the best storm coverage.  Our motto is "You Can Depend On Us" and you can bank on it!

David Glenn




Weekend & Thanksgiving Outlook

11/16/12

***StormTrack 9 Annual Winter Forecast Tuesday (20th) at 6pm & 11pm***

The weekend continues to look dry with seasonal temperatures.  And, the nice weather could stick around through Thanksgiving!

A strong dome of high pressure will dominate the weather pattern of the Southeast through early next week.  Sunny Saturday with a cold start in the low 30s, but by afternoon temperatures should reach the low 60s (50s mountains).  Clear Saturday Night with low.mid 30s.  Then, sunny to partly sunny Sunday as some clouds move in with afternoon temperatures again in the low/mid 60s.

The pattern for early next week continues to look dry.  A mix of sun and clouds Monday with low 60s.  Skies should become cloudy Tuesday with just a slight chance of rain and temperatures again in the low 60s.  The big travel day Wednesday locally looks dry with highs again in the 60s.  The outlook for Thanksgiving Day continues to look dry with 60s as well.  No big chill for you early shoppers Friday morning.  Lows will be in the 40s with highs Friday back again in the 60s.

Look further ahead, long range computer models continue to hint at some much colder air spilling in by the end of the month and start of December.  Time will tell.....

SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEATHER

Elon at UTC 2pmET    Sunny with low 60s.

UT at Vanderbilt 7pmET    Clear with 40s & 50s

Ga Southern at UGA  1:30pmET  Sunny with low 60s.

W.Carolina at Alabama 12:20pmET  Sunny with low 60s.

Alabama A&M at Auburn  2pmET  Sunny with mid 60s.

Duke at Georgia Tech  3:30pmET  Sunny with low 60s.

MTSU at South Alabama  3:30pmET  Sunny with mid/upper 60s.

NFL SUNDAY TAILGATING WEATHER

Titans have a bye this week

Arizona at Atlanta 1pm (Georgia Dome)....Sunny with 50s for tailgating outside Sunday morning and early afternoon.

David Glenn




A Wet Start To The Week

11/11/12

***The StormTrack 9 Annual Winter Forecast Will Be On November 20th at 5:30pm***                                                                                                                                                            After a gorgeous, warm weekend for November, a cold front will approach the Tennessee Valley Monday and usher in some rain followed by cooler temperatures.                                                                                                                                                                                        A cold front will move through the Southeast and Tennessee Valley during the day Monday.  Showers and even a few thunderstorms will develop and in advance of the front.  The chance for severe storms remains low, but as always we will keep an eye on that!  Some good soaking rainfall could result especially from late morning and into the afternoon.  Computer model rainfall estimates range on average form 0.70"-1.00" locally.  Most shower activity should quickly end Monday night.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  A dry pattern should settle in through Thursday, but it will be a bit chilly Tuesday and Wednesday.  Tuesday should be both breezy and chilly as afternoon temperatures are held in the 50s and a brisk NW wind making it feel colder.  Temperatures could dip to near the freezing mark by Wednesday morning followed by another afternoon in the 50s (but not as breezy).  Thursday looks really nice with a chilly morning in the 30s, but then a sunny afternoon around 60.  Some showers could return late Friday and into Saturday,  Highs both days back in the low 60s.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  The longer range projections are looking a bit chilly beyond next week.  A colder pattern could be evolving for the eastern half of the US, while the western half warms.  The latest 8-14 day temperature outlook provides some clues.                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Click Here for the 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook                                                                                                                                                                                                                         David Glenn




Election Day Chill

11/05/12

As Election Day 2012 approaches, it looks a bit chilly locally!

A fast moving system coming in from the northwest will keep temperatures a little below normal locally for Tuesday, Election Day.  Patchy areas of rain starting during the overnight hours and into Tuesday morning.  The periods of rain should continue during the morning, but then taper off.  This should leave us with a cloudy and chilly afternoon as temperatures only reach the mid 50s.  Yet, another system rolls through Tuesday night which could again provide some patchy areas of rain late Tuesday night and into Wednesday.  Again, this should keep temperatures below normal with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s.

Sunshine returns for Thursday along with a gradual warming trend.  Upper 50s and sunny Thursday afternoon, then mid/upper 60s Friday afternoon.  At this point, the upcoming weekend looks warmer with daily highs in the upper 60s to as high as 70 with morning lows in the 30s & 40s.

This slightly warmer than normal trend could continue into the long range.  Overall, the next 7-14 days could have temperatures below normal in the Western US and slightly above normal in the Southeast & Eastern US.

Click Here for the latest 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook

Click Here for the latest 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

David




Weekend & Long Range Outlook

11/02/12

A warm afternoon for the start of the first weekend of November, but temperatures should cool back to seasonal levels next week.

Temperatures early Saturday morning should be nippy in the upper 30s.  But, expect a rapid warm up with temperatures reaching the low/mid 70s by afternoon (60s mountains).  After a sunny start to the day, clouds should begin to stream in during the afternoon.  By Saturday night, a weak system approaches the Tennessee Valley.  This could provide a few showers late Saturday night through Sunday morning.  Rainfall amounts look light with this system.  Temperatures through early Sunday morning should only drop to near 50.

Sunday morning starts a little soggy with a few showers moving through, but the shower activity should not last all day.  Mainly cloudy and drier through the afternoon with high temperatures easing back a bit to the mid 60s.  Drier conditions should settle in for Sunday night and into Monday.  Cooler temperatures can be expected with a low near 40 Monday morning and only near 60 by Monday afternoon.

There could be a few showers moving back in for Election Day Tuesday.  But, it does not appear to be anything heavy nor severe.  Temperatures by Tuesday afternoon should be near 60.

The longer range outlook has the Tennessee Valley having temperatures at or above normal starting late next week and through the 10th.

Click Here for the Latest 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook from NOAA

Click Here for the Latest 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook from NOAA

The NOAA forecast for November has warm conditions expected over the western & central US.  But, here in the Tennessee Valley it's the "EC or Equal Chances" category.  Meaning that our temps could swing both above and below normal.  So, what could begin as a warm conditions into the 10-15th, could then cool below normal for late week.  But, only time will tell.

Click Here for the NOAA November Temperature Outlook

SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEATHER

Troy at Tennessee 12pmET:  Sunny to partly sunny with low/mid 60s.

Ole Miss at Georgia 3:30pmET:  Partly sunny with 60s and low 70s.

UTC at Western Carolina 3:30pmET:  Partly sunny with 60s.

Sewanee at Trinity (TX)  1pmET:  Partly cloudy with a slight chance of t-showers & low 80s.

Alabama at LSU 8pmET:  Cloudy with a few late evening showers with 60s & 70s.

Georgia Tech at Maryland 12:30pmET:  Sunny with low 50s.

Vanderbilt at Kentucky 12pmET:  Cloudy with 50s.

New Mexico State at Auburn 12:30pmET:  Partly sunny with 70s.

SUNDAY NFL WEATHER

Bears at Titans 1pmET:  Clouds for tailgating & near 50.  Partly cloudy during the game & upper 50s.

Cowboys at Falcons 8pmET (Inside the Georgia Dome).  Late afternoon tailgating could have some showers with 60s.

David Glenn




Freezing Temperatures Possible

10/30/12

The possibility of temperatures near the freezing mark exists for Wednesday and Thursday morning. 

The average date for a first freeze in Chattanooga is November 1st.  So, if the freezing temps do occur, it's right on schedule!  The earliest freeze in Chattanooga occurred on October 14, 1987.

The wind speeds should gradually die down later Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning.  This, along with a slow clearing of the sky should allow local temperatures to dip into the 30s.  Temperatures in Chattanooga should reach the mid 30s, but areas outside the city (especially north and east) could have temperatures at or below 32 by Wednesday morning.  By Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, the combination of a clear sky and light wind will allow temperatures in the city to reach near 32 and near 30 away from the city.

Now is the time to make preparations to protect any plants that are susceptible to freezing temperatures.

A warming trend begins after Thursday morning.  Temperatures by Thursday afternoon should reach the upper 50s to near 60, then mid 60s Friday.  By the weekend, afternoon temperatures should return to the upper 60s and even near 70 in a few local spots.

David Glenn




A Colder Weekend Ahead & Tracking "Sandy"

10/26/12

The coldest air of the season so far will move into the Tennessee Valley this weekend and continue next week.  While this is big weather news locally, the big story nationally is the track of Hurricane Sandy.

Here are some links to stay up to date on the latest with "Sandy"

Click Here for the latest update from the National Hurricane Center


Click Here for the latest forecast track of Sandy

Click Here for Local Weather Statements from areas affected by Sandy

Click Here for the wind probability map


The only byproduct locally from "Sandy" for the Tennessee Valley will be the arrival of cold air being pulled to the south.  The chilly should become noticeable by Saturday morning with temperatures in the low 50s.  There could be a little light rain or passing light shower early, but then a cloudy and breezy day can be expected.  Afternoon temperatures should struggle to get out of the 50s along with a brisk north wind at 10-20mph.  Saturday night should be colder with a low near 40 under a cloudy sky.

Clouds should eventually clear out Sunday.  But, even with a partly sunny sky afternoon temperatures should only reach the mid/upper 50s along with a north wind at 10-15mph.  Frost will be possible late Sunday night and Monday morning as temperatures dip into the mid/upper 30s.  Monday will also be cool with a partly sunny sky and temperatures during the afternoon only in the upper 50s.

The coldest morning could be Tuesday as low temperatures dip to the low/mid 30s.  This means that some areas could experience their first freeze of the season.  Most of next week should have afternoon temperatures in the upper 50s and lows in the 30s.  Would could have some low 60s back by Thursday and Friday.

SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEATHER

Georgia Southern at UTC  6pmET:  Cloudy and breezy with 50s.  GO MOCS!!!!!

Tennessee at South Carolina  12pmET:  Cloudy with 60s.

Georgia vs Florida in Jacksonville  3:30pmET:  Cloudy and windy with 60s & 70s (north wind at 25-35mph)

Rhodes at Sewanee 2:30pmET:  Cloudy, breezy and quite cool with 50s.

Mississippi St at Alabama  8:30pmET:  Cloudy and breezy with 50s.

BYU at Georgia Tech  3pmET:  Cloudy and breezy with 60s.

UMass at Vanderbilt  7pmET:  Cloudy, breezy and cold with 40s.

North Texas at MTSU  3:30pmET:  Cloudy and breezy with 50s.

Texas A&M at Auburn  7pmET:  Cloudy with 50s & 60s.

SUNDAY NFL WEATHER

Colts at Titans 1pmET:  Partly sunny and breezy with 40s & 50s for tailgating, then 50s throughout the game.

Falcons at Eagles 1pmET:  Rainy and windy with 50s to near 60.

David Glenn




Weekend Outlook (Oct 20-21)

10/19/12

The "dust" should settle through the start of the weekend, but some clouds should move back in as well.

A strong low pressure system over the Great Lakes is responsible for the "Dust Storm" that developed in the Plains states that moved over the Tennessee Valley Friday.  The severe drought conditions in the Plains has resulted in loose soil that was easily picked up by the strong surface wind Thursday and then transported our way on Friday.  The dust should eventually clear out through Saturday as the low pressure system shifts east and stops the "plume" of dust flowing in.

Clouds will also spread back in during the predawn hours Saturday.  Variable cloud cover with some intervals of sun will be possible Saturday.  Breezy at times Saturday, but not as strong as Friday.  Afternoon temperatures will be just a tad cooler than normal with highs in the 60s.  Skies should eventually clear Saturday night as temperatures dip to the lower 40s.

Sunday will start out chilly, but then quickly warm with sunshine and a southerly breeze.  Afternoon temperatures should reach the lower 70s (still 60s on the mountains).  This warming trend should continue well into next week with daily highs averaging in the mid/upper 70s Monday through Friday.  Rain chances remain slim, so the dry pattern will still hold.

SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEATHER

Alabama at Tennessee 7pmET:  Cloudy and cool for tailgating.  Even some sprinkles possible during the afternoon.  Dry for the game, but cool with 50s.

Samford at UTC  6pmET.  Cloudy with 60s for tailgating, then partly cloudy through the evening with 50s & 60s during the game.

Georgia at Kentucky  7pmET.  Variable clouds and chilly with 50s at kickoff, then 40s for the second half.

Sewanee at Birmingham Southern 3pmET.  A mix of clouds and sun with 60s to near 70.

Auburn at Vanderbilt 12:21pmET.  Cloudy and cool with 50s & 60s.  Some sprinkles or spotty light rain possible.

Boston College at Georgia Tech 3pmET.  A mix of clouds and sun with 60s.

MTSU at Mississippi State  7pmET.  A clear sky with 50s & 60s.

NFL SUNDAY WEATHER

Falcons are off this week.

Titans at Bills 1pmET.  Morning showers, then cloudy, breezy and cool with mid/upper 50s.

David Glenn




Temperatures Trending Above Normal Next 7-14 Days

10/16/12

Overall, October 2012 has been quite seasonal.  Temperatures through mid month have averaged 1.9 degrees below normal.  We should have temperatures near normal through the end of the week and the upcoming weekend.  But, the longer range trend the next 7-14 days indicates some slightly warmer than normal conditions.

The longer range computer models through the next two weeks tend to favor "ridging" in the upper atmosphere over the southern 1/3 of the US which includes the Tennessee Valley.  This usually means that a warmer pattern can be expected.  The maps below show the latest projections from the Climate Prediction Center which shows the above normal temperature trend.  The map on the "left" is the 6-10 day temperature trend.  The map on the "right" is the 8-14 day temperature trend.

David Glenn

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Temperatures Trending Above Normal Next 7-14 Days WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Temperatures Trending Above Normal Next 7-14 Days


Weekend Outlook (Oct 13-14)

10/12/12

Mid October is upon us and a warming trend can be expected for the weekend!

Since July's above normal temperatures in Chattanooga, temperatures have been below normal...August (3.6 degrees below normal)....September (0.6 degrees below normal)...October so far (3.6 degrees below normal).  But, a bit of a warming trend returns for the upcoming weekend followed by seasonal temperatures returning next week.

A warm front should swing through the Tennessee Valley from the south Saturday.  This should begin the warming trend.  Patchy fog can be expected before and after sunrise on Saturday followed by a mix of sun and clouds for the rest of the day.  Low 50s are expected Saturday morning, then warming quite a bit into the mid/upper 70s by afternoon (low 70s mountains).  Much warmer than the afternoons of the past work week.

The slightly above normal temperatures should continue for Sunday.  Clouds will continue to hang around and even increase in coverage through the afternoon.  But, it should remain dry with afternoon temperatures reaching the mid 70s.

The next system to affect us should arrive Sunday night as showers creep back in.  This will not be a long lasting chance of rain as the rain should end by midday Monday.  This will be followed by some cooler and drier air for Monday night through Wednesday.  In other words, perfect weather for a few days through midweek next week with daily highs near 70 (60s mountains) and morning lows in the 40s.  Another round of rain should move in by Thursday.

SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEATHER

Tennessee at Mississippi State 9pmET:  Partly cloudy with 60s.

UTC at Furman 1:30pmET:  Partly sunny & near 70.

Sewanee at Millsaps 3pmET:  Partly sunny with mid/upper 80s.

MTSU at Florida International 6pmET:  An isolated shower, otherwise partly cloudy & 80s.

Alabama at Missouri 3:30pmET:  Scattered thunderstorms possible with upper 70s/lower 80s.

Auburn at Ole Miss 12:20pmET:  Partly sunny & 80s.

Florida at Vanderbilt 6pmET:  Partly cloudy with 60s.

SUNDAY NFL TAILGATING WEATHER

Oakland at Atlanta 1pm (Inside the Georgia Dome)...Tailgating conditions outside should be partly cloudy with 60s to near 70.

The Tennessee Titans are off Sunday because they played this past Thursday night defeating the Steelers 26-23!

David Glenn




Weekend Outlook & College Football Forecast

10/05/12

Cooler temperatures are on the way for the weekend!

Well, we have talked about it for days now, but cooler air is still on its way.  A cold front will usher in some of the coolest air of the season so far.  The front should move through Saturday morning.  This should touch off a few passing light showers.  This does not appear to be a big rain maker at all, but some pesky showers from time to time are possible.  Temperatures will be in the low 70s briefly Saturday afternoon, then drop into the 60s.  Most mountain locations should stay in the 60s throughout the day.  A brisk northwest wind at 10-15mph can be expected and make it feel even cooler.

Much cooler Saturday night as temperatures drop to the upper 40s and lower 50s under a cloudy sky.  Sunday looks cloudy, breezy and quite cool with temperatures only reaching the lower 60s (50s mountains).  Like Saturday, a few passing showers are possible, though not the all day variety.  Sunday night should be the coldest night of the season so far as temperatures dip into the lower 40s.  Some higher elevated spots and northern locations could experience temperatures in the 30s.  Some patchy frost is possible at those locations, especially the Cumberland Plateau.

The outlook for next week has a gradual warming and a mostly dry pattern.  Afternoon temperatures should return to the 70s beginning Wednesday, with morning lows in the 40s and 50s.  A few showers are possible by Friday.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEATHER FOR SATURDAY

(UTC, Tennessee & Alabama are off this week)

Georgia at South Carolina  7pmET:  Partly cloudy with 70s, then 60s late game.

Centre at Sewanee 2pmET:  Cloudy, breezy and cool with 60s and a slight chance for a few passing showers.

Louisiana-Monroe at MTSU  3:30pmET:  Cloudy and cool with 50s.  A few showers possible.

Vanderbilt at Missouri 7pmET:  Cloudy and chilly with 40s.

Georgia Tech at Clemson 3:30pmET:  Partly cloudy with 70s.

Arkansas at Auburn 12pmET:  Partly sunny & 80s.

SUNDAY NFL WEATHER

Titans at Vikings (Inside the Metrodome) 4:25pmET

Falcons at Redskins 1pmET:    Cloudy with rain likely.  Quite cool with temperatures in the low 50s.

David Glenn




A Chill In The Air Soon!

10/03/12

A few more afternoons in the 80s through Friday, then a bit of chill will be in the air by the weekend!

First it was heavy rain Monday, then a persistent light rain/drizzle Tuesday.  Then, the pesky cloud cover only slowly moved out Wednesday.  So, it will be nice for a change to have some sunny days ahead Thursday and Friday.  Each morning should be in the low 50s with some patchy fog, but temperatures should quickly warm to the low/mid 80s through Friday afternoon (70s mountains).

By Saturday, a cold front pushes through the Tennessee Valley.  There could be some shower/t-shower activity, but there is not a whole lot of moisture with this system.  Nevertheless, some showers will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening as the front eases through.  It will still be warm Saturday with temperatures in the 70s during the afternoon.

Much cooler air moves in for Sunday behind the cold front. A brisk north-northwest wind should usher in the coolest air of the season so far.  Afternoon temperatures should hover in the lower 60s (upper 50s mountains).  By Sunday night, temperatures should dip into the middle 40s.  Sunshine and a lighter breeze Monday, but daily highs should again stay in the 60s.  The chilliest night looks to be Monday night as temperatures dip to the lower 40s.  Some upper 30s are possible in wind protected areas away from the city and at higher elevations.  A gradual warming trend follows with afternoons back in the 70s by midweek and lows warming to the 50s.

It's probably a good time to have your heating systems checked out.  And, as always, please heat your home safely if you use space heaters and wood fireplaces!.

Click Here for the latest NOAA 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook (Below normal locally and areas north)

David Glenn




Weekend Outlook & A Wet Start To Next Week

09/28/12

The overall shower chances for the weekend remain in the slight category, so no big wash outs.  But, by late Sunday and into Sunday night, some wash outs are possible and continues into Monday.

A warm and humid pattern should continue through this last weekend of September.  There could be some isolated passing showers Saturday with the best timing during the early part of the day.  But, a lot of areas might not even see a drop.  Otherwise clouds mixing with some sun the rest of Saturday with temperatures reaching around 80s.  Dry conditions for Saturday night with an overnight low near 60.

On Sunday, most of the day looks dry but with increasing clouds.  A gradual increasing coverage of showers should move back in from the south by late day Sunday and through Sunday night.  High temperatures on Sunday should be in the upper 70s Sunday afternoon as more clouds move in. 

Some periods of moderate to heavy rain is possible late Sunday night and into Monday as an area of low pressure moves along the Gulf Coast.  For coastal areas the effects could be similar to a tropical storm.  For the Tennessee Valley, this means some tropical like rainfall to start the work week.  Rainfall amounts could average between 1"-2" locally, but could be a bit higher in spots.  Rain should taper off during the day Tuesday as the low pressure moves away.

Click Here for the NOAA 5 Day Rainfall Outlook (Most of this locally from late Sunday night through Tuesday morning)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEATHER

Tennessee at UGA 3:30pmET:  A passing shower possible, otherwise cloudy to partly cloudy with temps around 80.

UTC at The Citadel  6pmET:  Partly cloudy with low 80s.

Willamette at Sewanee 3pmET:  Partly cloudy with an isolated shower & 70s.

Ole Miss at Alabama  9:15pmET:  Cloudy with a few passing showers possible & 70s.

Arkansas at Auburn 12pmET:  Partly cloudy, possibly an isolated shower & 80s.

MTSU at Georgia Tech 12pmET:  Cloudy with upper 70s.  A few showers possible.

Vanderbilt is off this week.

NFL SUNDAY WEATHER

Titans at Texans 1pmET:  Reliant Stadium has a retractable roof.  That is good because some heavy rain is possible in Houston Saturday and Saturday night.  Rain diminishes Sunday, so some soggy tailgating outside the stadium Sunday morning with 70s.

Panthers at Falcons 1pmET in the Georgia Dome.  Outside tailgating looks partly cloudy with 70s Sunday morning and early afternoon.

David Glenn




Longer Range Outlook

09/25/12

Cooler mornings have been quite enjoyable across the Tennessee Valley as we have seen a smooth transition into Autumn.  The next 2 weeks should exhibit near average to even slightly above average temperatures heading into October.

The upper level "trough" or dip over the US East and Southeast that has brought a couple of round of cool air should be replaced by a "ridge" of high pressure.  This should return temperatures to near seasonal levels locally and displace the cooler air just to our north and west.  Afternoons could even reach the mid 80s for late this week, but then ease back to the upper 70s by the weekend and early next week.

Click Here for the latest 6-10 Day Temperature Trend from NOAA

Click Here for the latest 8-14 Day Temperature Trend from NOAA

Rain chances are not that high for the next two weeks.  The best chance looks to be this coming Saturday, followed by a drier pattern for most of next week.  It may not be until the following weekend (Oct 6th) before another round of showers occurs.  This is not that unusual since mid September through October is typically the driest part of the year on average locally.  That all starts to change as wetter patterns usually emerge locally in November.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has released the updated outlook for October.  Overall, a warmer than average pattern is possible over a large part of the United States including the Tennessee Valley.  What I am seeing from computer model guidance for the next 2 to 2 1/2 weeks falls in line with this idea as well.  As for rainfall, statistically, the models keep the Tennessee Valley in the "equal chance" category for having above or below normal rainfall.  Again, October is typically a dry month locally.

Click Here for the NOAA October Temperature Outlook

Click Here for the NOAA October Precipitation Outlook

The latest 90 day outlook for October through December keeps a slightly warmer than average pattern in place over a large part of the US as well.  You have to take 90 day outlooks with a grain of salt though as a lot of seasonal transition occurs during this particular time period.  As I mentioned in an earlier post, the upcoming winter should be colder than last winter, but the colder pattern may take a while to settle in (Jan & Feb).  Again, more details on this in the weeks ahead.

Click Here for the NOAA 90 Day Temperature Outlook Oct-Dec

Click Here for the NOAA 90 Day Precipitation Outlook Oct-Dec

David Glenn




Welcome Autumn!

09/21/12

The long, hot summer has ended and Autumn officially begins Saturday morning at 10:49amET.

This first weekend of Autumn should feel quite seasonal.  Saturday should be a warm day with afternoon temperatures still reaching around 80 with a mix of sun and clouds.  A cold front should move through the Tennessee Valley keeping conditions breezy throughout the day.  Only a small chance for a shower occurring with this front.  The wind should shift from the west to the northwest at 10-20mph during the day.

After sunset Saturday evening, temperatures should drop fairly quickly.  Expect an overnight low near 50 with a steady breeze from the north continuing.  Some upper 40s are possible away from the city by Sunday morning.  Sunday should be the first true day of Fall weather with sunshine, breezy conditions and afternoon temperatures only in the low 70s (60s mountains).  A steady breeze will continue from the north at 10-15mph.

Sunday night should be the coolest night of the season so far with a clear sky and temperatures dipping to the mid 40s (low 40s mountains and away from the city).  Dry and sunny again Monday with afternoon highs in the mid 70s.  Afternoon temperatures should warm back to near 80 by Wednesday and low 80s late week.  Mostly dry conditions for the upcoming week with the exception of a small chance of showers both Thursday and Friday.

SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEATHER!

Appalachian State at UTC  6pmET:  Partly cloudy and breezy with 70s, then 60s late game.  (Near 80 for afternoon tailgating, then gradually cooler during the game).  Go Mocs!

Akron at UT  7:30pmET:  Partly cloudy and breezy with tailgating temps near 80, but cooling through the 60s as the evening continues.

Vandy at UGA 7:45pmET:  Partly cloudy and breezy with tailgating temps in the 80s.  70s by kickoff, then 60s by the 4th qtr.

Sewanee at Austin College in Sherman, TX  1pmET.  Sunny and hot with 80s.

Florida Atlantic at Alabama 5pmET:  Partly cloudy and breezy with tailgating temps in the 80s, then cooling into the 70s by late game.

LSU at Auburn  7pmET:  Partly cloudy and becoming breezy with tailgating temps in the 80s and game temps in the 70s.

Miami at Georgia Tech  3pmET:  A mix of clouds and sun with 80s for the game and tailgating (at the Varisty!!!)

SUNDAY NFL WEATHER

Lions at Titans 1pmET:  A beautiful day at LP Field with sunshine, a north breeze and temperatures in the 60s.  Go Titans!  Titan Up!

Falcons at Chargers 4pmET:  Sunny in San Diego with temperatures in the 80s.  Go Falcons!  Rise Up!

David Glenn




A Nice Early Fall Pattern

09/19/12

The temperatures early Wednesday morning were the coolest for the Tennessee Valley since early June.  Most areas were in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

It was a a little chillier in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park with Newfound Gap (ele 5000 ft) as 36 degrees.  And, Mt LeConte, TN (ele 6400 ft) dipped to the freezing mark of 32 degrees.

This pattern should continue through Friday.  Morning should remain mostly in the 50s, but the afternoons should be a little warmer with highs in the low 80s Thursday through Saturday.  Another cold front approaches the Tennessee Valley Saturday.  But, unlike the last front, the amount of rain should be much less.  There could be a few showers/t-showers Saturday afternoon & evening as the front approaches, but again the coverage remains low.  Behind the front will be another round of much cooler air.  Highs on Sunday should drop back to the low/mid 70s along with a steady northwest wind.  Upper 40s for lows both Monday and Tuesday mornings of next week.  Daily highs mostly in the 70s with a dry first half of the upcoming week.

Fall officially begins Saturday!

Click Here for the 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook which shows below normal temperatures continuing for the Southeast and the Tennessee Valley.

David Glenn




2012 Rainfall Deficit Wiped Out By Record Rainfall

09/18/12

 The heavy rainfall set a daily record on Tuesday and helped erase a yearly rainfall deficit!

The 2 day rainfall total was 5.72" at Lovell Field in Chattanooga.  The total for just Tuesday since midnight was 3.65",  That is a new daily record for September 18th shattering the old record of 1.82" back in 1966.

The 2012 total so far now stands at 38.28" which is now 0.66" above normal.  We began the day Monday with a 4.79" rainfall deficit.  It's amazing how much rain just one weather system can produce!

David Glenn




Weekend Outlook & College Football Forecast

09/14/12

More clouds should move in for the weekend with an eventual increase in showers by late Sunday and especially into Monday.

The last weekend of Summer should remain warm with mid 80s possible Saturday afternoon.  A mix of clouds and sun through the day.  There is a slight chance for an isolated shower, especially over the Blue Ridge & Smoky Mtns along the Tennessee/North Carolina border.  Partly cloudy through Saturday night with a low in the lower 60s.

Expect an increase in cloud cover Sunday.  Some scattered showers are possible during the afternoon and evening hours.  Afternoon high temperatures should reach the lower 80s (upper 70s mountains).  A gradual increase in shower activity will be possible for Sunday night and especially into Monday.

Monday's rain chance could be accompanied by some thunderstorms as well which could result in some heavy downpours.  Afternoon temperatures should be held down in the 70s.  Off and on showers should continue Monday night and into early Tuesday.  A cold front moves through during the day Tuesday which should gradually end the showers locally and bring in some drier and much cooler air.  High temperatures by Wednesday should only be in the mid 70s with morning lows in the low/mid 50s.

College Football Weather Forecast for Saturday

Florida at Tennessee 6pm:  Some isolated showers/t-showers possible, but otherwise partly cloudy with temperatures in the 70s during the game.

FAU at Georgia 7:30pm:  Partly cloudy with 70s through the evening.

Alabama at Arkansas 3:30pmET:  Scattered showers possible, otherwise cloudy with 70s.

Sewanee at Maryville 1:30pmET:  Partly cloudy with an isolated afternoon t-shower & 70s.

Presbyterian at Vanderbilt 12:30pmET:  Partly cloudy & 70s.

Virginia at Georgia Tech 3:30pmET:  Partly cloudy & 80s.

MTSU at Memphis 7pmET:  Scattered showers possible, otherwise cloudy & 70s.

Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn 12:20pmET:  Partly cloudy & 80s.

Sunday NFL Forecast:

Titans at Chargers 4pmET:  Sunny with upper 80s & lower 90s.

(Monday Night):  Broncos & Falcons are in the climate controlled Georgia Dome!

David Glenn




Another Taste Of Autumn Air Could Arrive Next Week

09/13/12

After a muggy first week of September, the weather lately has been nearly perfect.  Just as temperatures begin to warm up from a brief cool spell, there are signs that another surge of cooler air could arrive by the middle of next week.

Daily highs should creep back to the mid 80s Thursday and Friday, then ease back a few degrees over the weekend because of increased cloud cover.  Showers could begin to move in late Sunday and especially into Monday.  A cold front should move across the Tennessee Valley into Tuesday which should bring an end to the rain and begin another cooling trend.

This next cooling trend could be set up by a deepening upper level trough over the eastern half of the US.  Both the US and European models are in general agreement with this during the mid/late stage of next week.  This means that if this pattern does occur, then we could have high temperatures held down to the mid 70s by next Wednesday and Thursday along with morning temperatures again dipping into the 50s.

Follow these links below for a look at some model forecasts:

Click Here for the latest 8-10 Day European Model (ECMWF)
showing that possible trough over the eastern half of the US including the Southeast.

Click Here for the latest 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook
which shows a possible below normal temperature trend locally.

Click Here for the latest 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook which also shows a possible below normal temperature trend locally.

By the way, Autumn officially begins on Saturday September 22nd.

David Glenn




A Computer Model Long Range Outlook

09/10/12

Around this time of year, people begin asking about the upcoming winter.  Whether it is the number of fogs in August, or the wooly worms as they start to appear in September, the main goal is trying to determine how severe the upcoming winter will be.

Last year, of course, was one of the warmest winter's we have ever had.  But, lost in that hoopla nationwide was the fact that we had just experienced two back to back very cold, snowy winters.  The ongoing La Nina pattern through last winter was largely responsible for the wild swings back and forth between the winters of 2011 and 2012.  The La Nina has now faded and El Nino conditions are slowly building in the Pacific.  Unlike those Super El Nino's in the 1980s & 1990s, the current version is a rather weak one so far, with only small signs of strengthening through the upcoming winter.

I will issue my annual winter forecast in mid November because I like to observe the patterns through Autumn which can really help narrow down the patterns for the four month period of December through March.  So far, I am still favoring a winter that should be colder than last year and more in line with what we typically experience during the winter months here in the Tennessee Valley.  But, we'll see how things transpire through Autumn.

So, for now, we can look at some long range computer model outlooks from the US model CFS - or Climate Forecast System.  The CFS favors a mild Autumn and start to winter for October through December (and wetter at times).  The model then indicates a possible colder than normal period of December through February, with possibly drier than normal conditions. 

Here are some links to the CFS Model Maps:

CFS Model Temperatures October Through December (Near to Above Average Locally)

CFS Model Precipitation October Through December (Near to Above Average Locally)

CFS Model Temperatures January Through March (Near To Below Average Locally)

CFS Model Precipitation January Through March (Below Average Locally)

Please keep in mind that this is just one computer model and that the model data can shift back and forth as the patterns start to change through Autumn.  I'll have updates through Autumn and of course the full seasonal forecast in November.

David Glenn




A Beautiful Week Ahead!

09/09/12

A nice taste of early Fall weather should continue for most of the upcoming work week!

A reinforcing shot of dry air should make its way into the Tennessee Valley through early Monday morning.  This will keep the humidity low and temperatures quite comfortable.  Expect a sunny sky each afternoon with only some high clouds mixing in from time to time.  Afternoon temperatures should average in the low/mid 80s with mainly upper 70s mountains through Tuesday.  Morning lows should average in the mid/upper 50s through Wednesday morning, then low 60s through Friday.

Humidity levels should rise just a bit by the start of the weekend.  This, along with an approaching front by Saturday could result in some scattered showers both Saturday and Sunday.  Computer models are not really handling that weekend system too well.  So, just be aware that some scattered showers are possible, but don't cancel any outdoor plans just yet as it is still early in the week.  You can depend on us for updates through the week!

David Glenn




A Stormy Start Saturday, But Fantastic For Sunday!

09/07/12

An approaching cold front should make for a wet and stormy start to Saturday.

Showers and storms should move into the viewing area during the time just before daybreak and continue sweeping through during the rest of the morning and early part of the afternoon.  A line of storms like this can often have damaging wind gusts on the leading edge.  So, it is possible that parts of the viewing area could have a period of time when a "Watch" or "Warning" could be in effect.  So, please keep your weather radios turned on.  Also, be sure to follow us on Facebook and Twitter to stay up to date.

The front should quickly move through so the storms should end over the entire viewing area through the mid stage of the afternoon.  Drier and cooler air should move in late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.  Breezy conditions can be expected through the afternoon and evening hours as well as the wind shift occurs.

Temperatures should drop to the upper 50s by Sunday morning and even low/mid 50s north and mountains.  Sunday should be fantastic with sunshine, low humidity and afternoon highs in the upper 70s to near 80.  This dry pattern should continue through most of next week.  Morning lows should average in the upper 50s to near 60 and afternoon highs returning to the mid 80s Tuesday through Friday.

David Glenn




August 2012 Weather Rewind

09/05/12

August 2012 is in the books and it will go down as a cooler and wetter.  A nice change of pace from the previous summer months.

Let's start with the temperature category.  The average temperature for August at Lovell Field was 78.3 degrees which was 1.1 degrees below the 30 year average.  The hottest temperature was 96 on the 1st.  The coolest temperature was 60 on the 12th (though a lot of areas away from the city had several mornings in the 50s).

August rainfall totaled 3.79" at Lovell Field which was just slightly above the 30 year average by 0.31".  The wettest day of the month was on the 9th when 1.25" was received.

For the record, the hottest August in Chattanooga was in 2007 with an average temperature of 85.7 degrees.  The coolest August was in 1992 with an average temperature of 73.5.  The wettest August was in 1920 with a whopping 12.36" of rain.  The driest, of course, was last year (2011) with only 0.01" received.  August 2011 was followed just days later by the wettest day ever recorded on Labor Day.

Oh, and just in case you were wondering, here is the count of foggy morning's we had in August.  Why does this category matter?  It's just a fun piece of folklore that states that the number of fogs in August can give you an idea of the number of snow events for the upcoming winter.  Honestly, this has never really worked out, but as a snow lover myself, it's always fun to count the days.  So, here ya go....The number of days in August with fog reported at Lovell Field was 14.  But, only once (on the 10th) was the fog considered dense reducing visibility under 1/4 mile.  So, we'll just have to see if that actually correlates to anything this coming winter.  My annual winter forecast will be issued in mid November.

David Glenn




The Labor Day Weekend & College Football Forecast

08/31/12

Here is the latest StormTrack 9 Labor Day Weekend Forecast

Saturday:  Very humid with a mix of clouds and sun.  Scattered showers/storms are possible at any point during the day.  An afternoon high in the upper 80s (Heat Index in the mid 90s).  A south wind at 10mph.

Saturday Night:  An early evening t-shower possible, otherwise partly cloudy with with lower 70s.

Sunday:  Very humid with a mix of sun and clouds.  From time to time, some showers/t-showers could pop up.  An afternoon high in the upper 80s (Heat Index in 90s)

Labor Day:  Remaining very humid with a mix of clouds and sun.  Periodically some showers/t-showers popping up with an afternoon high in the upper 80s (Heat Index in 90s)

A daily round of afternoon and evening t-showers will again be possible through Wednesday, then drier with fewer shower chances by late week.  Temperatures should continue to average just above normal..

College Football Weather


UTC at South Florida - 7pm:
  Very humid with a passing early evening t-shower possible with 80s.

Puget Sound at Sewanee - 3pmET: Humid with a few pop up t-showers possible with 80s.

Buffalo at Georgia - 12:20pm
  Very hot and humid with a few passing t-showers, otherwise partly sunny & 90s.

Clemson at Auburn - 7pmET:  In the Georgia Dome. For tailgating, quite humid with a few afternoon & early evening t-showers possible with 80s and lower 90s.

Alabama vs Michigan in Dallas - 8pm: In a dome (retractable roof), so no weather issues.  But tailgaters outside will find it quite hot with afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s.

Good luck to all the teams....Go Mocs!...Yea Sewanee's Right!...Go Dawgs!...War Eagle!...Roll Tide!

David Glenn




"Isaac": It's Not Always About The Category

08/29/12

Over the past few days during my evening weathercasts, I have emphasized the fact that one should not focus just on the hurricane category to determine the true strength of a hurricane.  The maximum wind strength category for Hurricane Isaac was Category 1.  Major hurricanes are those that are Category 3 or higher (Ivan & Katrina).  But, Isaac was not "just" a Category 1 hurricane.  It was a large storm and a slow mover which meant that the coastal and inland flooding would last quite a while.

So, even though the level of storm surge was half of what Katrina caused, the length of time the surge lasted was longer.  This inundated the coastal communities of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama for over 24 hours.  Plus, the slow movement meant that the period of heavy rain would last for nearly 48 hours resulting in totals that could exceed 20 inches in spots.  This put quite a strain on the coastal levee systems.  Through late Wednesday night, the levees around New Orleans were holding up, but the rain continues to fall.

The images of flooding with Isaac have equaled that of Katrina in some parts of Louisiana.  This is why the "wind" category for a hurricane (1 through 5) does not always indicate the true potential strength of a storm.  Isaac may have only been a "1", but the flooding associated with the storm rivals that of a major hurricane.  I predict that the name "Isaac" will be retired from the name list.

David Glenn




Links That David Had Posted Before

08/29/12

Here are the links that David had in an earlier post.  Helpful for Isaac and for any future tropical weather.  Bill Race

Latest National Hurricane Center Forecast For "Isaac"

Computer Model Forecasts For "Isaac"

Ensemble Model Forecasts For "Isaac"

European Model Forecast (ECMWF Updated early afternoon)

Canadian Model Forecast (CMC Updated early afternoon)


US Navy NOGAPS Model Forecast

Historical Tracks of other storms at same position as "Isaac"

Latest Satellite Image of "Isaac"

Eastern Gulf of Mexico Radar

Central & Western Gulf Radar

Hurricane Hunter Reconn  Data

Hurricane Hunter Wind Data Map




Weather Thoughts For Tuesday 8/28/12 By Bill Race

08/28/12

6:27 AM ET
Tracking Isaac, it is still a tropical storm at this writing.  We will see some moisture from the storm, but not the sustained rainfall that will occur closer to the storm itself.  Highs today will be in the low 90s, and highs in the upper 80s to around 90 are expected the rest of the week.  We will keep updating Isaac as we go along, with landfall expected late tonight or very early Wednesday morning.  Bill Race

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Weather Thoughts For Tuesday 8/28/12 By Bill Race


Weather Thoughts For Monday 8/27/2012 From Bill Race

08/27/12

After a weekend of watching Isaac's path swing more to the West, it appears now that we are looking at a landfall around New Orleans, LA late Tuesday or Early Wednesday.  Of course this is still subject to change a bit.   The impact in our area will not be as high with the more Westerly track.  But we may still have some showers on the fringe of the storm system as it moves into the Midwest.  Highs early this week will be in the low 90s.  with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.  Links are available on David Glenn's  earlier post on this blog.  Bill Race

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Weather Thoughts For Monday 8/27/2012 From Bill Race


Friday Weather Thoughts From Bill Race

08/24/12

When I get up and look at the new weather data these days, I don't see much change.  Now we will see low temperatures getting warmer over the weekend period, more in the mid 60s. But highs will remain around 90.  Isaac could very well bring us some rain next week as it's track is a little more West into the Gulf.  David has placed link in the previous blog post to help you keep updated on Isaac.   That would be toward the middle of next week.  Friday night football looks warm to start tonight, but cooling rapidly.  Dry weather for the games.  Bill Race




Tracking "Isaac"

08/23/12

"Isaac" will remain the big ticket weather item through the weekend and early next week.  So, to make it easy to track the storm, here is a full list of web links to keep up with the latest developments on "Isaac".  Bookmark this page, and check back daily! (David Glenn)

Latest National Hurricane Center Forecast For "Isaac"

Computer Model Forecasts For "Isaac"

Ensemble Model Forecasts For "Isaac"

European Model Forecast (ECMWF Updated early afternoon)

Canadian Model Forecast (CMC Updated early afternoon)


US Navy NOGAPS Model Forecast

Historical Tracks of other storms at same position as "Isaac"

Latest Satellite Image of "Isaac"

Eastern Gulf of Mexico Radar

Central & Western Gulf Radar

Hurricane Hunter Reconn  Data

Hurricane Hunter Wind Data Map




Thursday Weather Thoughts

08/23/12

The 11 am ET advisory for Tropical Storm Isaac continues to push it a little more to the West into the Gulf Of Mexico.  So early next week we will be looking to see how it positions itself, not only for landfall but if it will impact weather for us.  In the meantime, beautiful weather with highs near 90 and lows in the 60s through the weekend. Click Here for more on Isaac.

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Thursday Weather Thoughts WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Thursday Weather Thoughts


A Cooler Than Normal August So Far....Plus, Tracking "Isaac"

08/22/12

After some very hot days in the heart of summer 2012, this August weather pattern has been a welcomed change of pace.

Through Wednesday (22nd), the average temperature for August 2012 in Chattanooga is 78.1 which is 1.8 degrees below average.  We have spent the past 14 days in a row with below average daily temperatures.  What a difference from just last August which was also the driest month ever recorded.  The average temperature for August 2011 in Chattanooga was 83.2 degrees which was 3.8 degrees above average (a whopping 5.1 degrees warmer than this August).  The all time warmest August on record was just a few years ago in 2007 with an average temperature of 85.7.  The coolest August on record was in 1992 with an average temperature of 73.5.

We have also benefited from some wetter conditions compared to last August.  Rainfall for August 2012 so far at Lovell Field is 3.79", which is 1.34" above normal.  For the Summer season, the total is 13.09", which is 1.68" above normal.  For the year 2012 so far, the total is 34.23", which is 3.70 BELOW average.  The very dry Spring being the reason that the yearly total remains below average.

Tracking "Isaac"...........

Isaac remains a very interesting storm to track and forecast.  Its path through the northern Caribbean will have to be closely watched to see if any interaction with the mountains of the Dominican Republic & Haiti have any affect on the storm.  Then, the forecast upper level flow could determine if the storm goes straight up into the peninsula of Florida, or enters the Gulf of Mexico.

The upper flow current has "Isaac" riding the southern periphery of an Atlantic ridge of high pressure.  This ridge is projected to break down or weaken by late weekend and early next week as a trough of low pressure develops over the US east coast and Southeast.  This trough, "could" hook the storm north.  But, the big question is when will that occur.  Will it occur off the east coast of Florida...over the peninsula...or after it possibly reaches the Gulf?  Those are questions that only time can answer.

As for the weather over the Tennessee Valley, we will have to watch and see if "Isaac" moves deeper into the Gulf.  Should that happen, then some rainfall could occur in the long range.  Should the storm remain over the Atlantic, then the Tennessee Valley would remain dry.  So, a lot to watch in the days ahead.  Follow the links below for track Isaac!

Official National Hurricane Forecast Track

Latest Satellite Images of "Isaac"


Latest Computer Model Forecasts for "Isaac"

Historical Tracks of Storms Near "Issac's" Position

You can depend on us for daily updates on "Isaac"!

Oh...and then there is Tropical Depression #10 in the far eastern Atlantic....Click Here for the latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center

David Glenn




Weather Thoughts For Wednesday 8/22/12

08/22/12

Still some very calm weather expected for the next several days.  The tropics have become active with Isaac having developed and eventually getting closer to the US by early next week.  Until then we can still expect highs in the upper 80s and lows in the 60s.  Perhaps a shower or two by Sunday. Bill Race

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Weather Thoughts For Wednesday 8/22/12 WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Weather Thoughts For Wednesday 8/22/12


Storms To Be Strong This Afternoon

08/17/12

7:04 AM ET Friday 8/17/12:

An even earlier wake up call this morning as showers and storms were moving into the area.  A few warnings during the early morning hours, but they weakened quite fast.  Now we wait for this afternoon for a cold front to bring some strong storms back into our area from NW to SE.  My feeling is that we will have our best chances between 2 and 7 pm ET.  The weekend is looking good with just a slight chance of a thundershower and highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s.  We will track the storms this afternoon into this evening.  Still could be some showers and storms for high school football this evening.  Bill Race

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Storms To Be Strong This Afternoon


Thunderstorms Return For Friday & Drought Update

08/16/12

Scattered t-storms should return Friday as another cold front moves through the Tennessee Valley.  A few of the storms could be severe.

Stormy Friday
Another cold front should move through the Tennessee Valley Friday.  This should bring an increase in cloud cover during the day Friday, then the chance of scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.  Some of the storms could become severe during the afternoon and evening hours.  The threat of tornadoes remains low.  These types of thunderstorms though could have the risk of developing large hail and some damaging wind gusts (along with heavy downpours and some hail).  See the map below from the Storm Prediction Center that places our part of the Tennessee Valley in the "Slight Risk" category for severe storms Friday.

So, if you are planning on attending area football games Friday night, be aware that showers and storms are possible.  Most of the showers and storms should end prior to midnight as the cold front moves through.

Weekend PM T-Showers
The coverage of t-showers should be less over the weekend, but mainly the afternoon and evening variety.  Both days should have a mix of sun and clouds with daily afternoon highs in the mid 80s and morning lows in the mid 60s.  Some scattered showers/storms will be possible each afternoon and evening..

Drought Update
Even though a very large portion of the US has moderate to severe drought conditions, most of our viewing area is no longer under any drought category.  The exceptions are parts of our northwest Georgia viewing area in Chattooga and Gordon Co.  Moderate to severe drought conditions are not far away with the Atlanta area and south experiencing the drought.  Most of the Tennessee Valley has benefited from increased rainfall amounts since June.  This has eased us out of the drought conditions.  The maps below show the current Drought Monitor for Tennessee and Georgia,  Click here for the complete map of the US Drought Monitor

David Glenn

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Thunderstorms Return For Friday & Drought Update WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Thunderstorms Return For Friday & Drought Update WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Thunderstorms Return For Friday & Drought Update


Weather Thoughts For Thursday

08/16/12

The heat is going to return some for Thursday with a high back into the low 90s.  At this point, I don't see any storms popping up this afternoon.  Certainly not many.  Friday is the day when we will have a better chance of thunderstorms again.  Still will see some sun during the day.  Temps held down a little but still in the upper 80s on Friday.  High School Football may have to dodge a few storms on Friday night as well.  The weekend looks mainly dry to me.  A few showers early on Saturday seems to be the best chance.  Highs in the 80s over the weekend.  Bill Race

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Weather Thoughts For Thursday


A Beautiful Weekend Ahead, So Don't Miss The Meteor Shower!

08/10/12

A nice break from the oppressive heat and humidity for the weekend!

This past week has felt typical for August with the heat and high humidity.  A strong cold front for this time of year was responsible for the thunderstorms Friday.  But, it will also be responsible for the beautiful weekend ahead!

Much drier air should begin to filter in through the morning hours Saturday.  Clouds could linger through Saturday morning then give way to a partly sunny sky.  You will notice the refreshing feel to the air with lower humidity levels and a steady breeze from the north-northwest.  Temperatures should only top out in the mid/upper 80s and only near 80 on the mountain tops!

A cooler than average night for Saturday night through Sunday morning as temperatures should dip to near 60.  Some 50s are possible in the outlying areas and on the mountains.  Another nice day Sunday with sunshine and low humidity with high temperatures in the upper 80s.  Temperatures should return to around 90 for next week along with higher humidity levels.  Some pop up t-showers each afternoon Tuesday through Friday.

With a clear & comfortable conditions Saturday night, it will be the perfect night to catch the annual Perseid Meteor Shower.

Here are the specifics and viewing details from www.almanac.com....

Watching a meteor shower couldn't be simpler. All you need is a dark location away from city lights and your own two eyes. A reclining chair is helpful to prevent a stiff neck, though you may find it even more comfortable to stretch out on the ground atop (or inside) a sleeping bag. The best time to observe the Perseids is between midnight and sunrise; that's when the Earth will be colliding head-on with the meteor stream. You may see as many as 60 meteors an hour from a dark site, and the meteors can appear in any part of the sky. Watching a meteor shower takes some patience. Many minutes may pass with no activity, then suddenly you will see several meteors in quick succession (Source:  www.almanac.com)




July 2012 Was Both Hotter & Wetter Than Average

07/31/12

As we turn the calendar to August, a look back at the weather statistics for July 2012 will show that it was both hotter and wetter than average for Chattanooga.

The fact that temperatures ended up above average should come as no surprise to most.  The first day of the month had the highest ever recorded temperature in Chattanooga with 107 degrees (this came after another 107 degree day on June 30). 25 of the 31 days of July had temperatures above average with 4 of those days 100 or above.  The average temperature for July 2012 was 83 degrees which is about 3 degrees above average.

As hot as it was, the average temperature fell far short of the hottest July on record.  That happened in July of 1993 with the average temperature of 85.2 degrees.  In fact, July 2012 ties the same average temperature of July 2011.  July 2012 was a little hotter with an average temperature of 83.5 degrees.  In case you are wondering, the coolest July on record was in 1967 with an average temperature of 72.8 degrees.

Rainfall was a welcomed sight for July 2012 because it allowed us to break away from the record heat spell that started the month.  Granted, we had to go through periods of strong to severe storms, but the downpours really added up.  Rainfall for July 2012 was 6.87" which was over 1.75" above average.  And, this stopped the dry trend that happened in June (2012) with a below average 2.43".  This was the wettest of the past 5 July's in Chattanooga.  The all time record wettest July was in 1916 with 13.49".  The driest July on record was in 1995 with 0.20".

The outlook for August from the Climate Prediction Center continues the ongoing trend of above average temperatures (See Maps Below).  The core of that heat should be centered over the Central Plains and Midwest.  The trend over the next 4 1/2 weeks could continue to remain above average for the Tennessee Valley as well.  The rainfall outlook locally remains in the "equal chance" category, which means that rainfall trends could go either way from above to below average.  Rainfall in August locally can also be affected by Gulf tropical systems which tend to be a possibility in August and September.

David Glenn

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - July 2012 Was Both Hotter & Wetter Than Average WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - July 2012 Was Both Hotter & Wetter Than Average


Some Strong To Severe Storms Possible Early Tuesday

07/30/12

A round of strong to severe storms is possible late Monday night and into the early morning hours of Tuesday.

The combination of an upper level wind flow from the northwest and a developing "trough" moving in from the west, could increase our local chances of thunderstorms late in the night.  Unlike typical summer patterns that exhibit storm development during the day and waning at night, this system could actually develop the storms during the late night hours.

The map below shows the Storm Prediction Center's latest outlook that places the Tennessee Valley in the "Slight Risk" category for the possibility of severe storms starting during the early morning hours of Tuesday.  This means that a few storms could produce damaging wind gusts and large hail.  Aside from those severe storm elements, heavy downpours and frequent lightning (and loud thunder claps) can be expected as well.

The chance of strong storms could linger for Tuesday morning, followed by a break in the action.  A redevelopment of some thunderstorms is possible again for Tuesday afternoon and evening.  After a possibly active Tuesday, the chance of thunderstorms drops off a bit for most of the rest of the work week.  Mainly just the pop up variety of scattered afternoon & evening t-storms.  The chance goes up slightly by the weekend.

As always, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team to keep you updated!

David Glenn

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Some Strong To Severe Storms Possible Early Tuesday


"Slight Risk" of Strong Storms Friday

07/26/12

After some hot & dry afternoons lately, the chance of storms returns for Friday.  And, a few storms could become severe.

An approaching front should help spark a better chance of scattered thunderstorms locally, especially Friday afternoon and evening.  The fact that this will be with a cool front increases the instability a bit and means that a few storms could reach severe levels.  Some of the storms could produce damaging wind gusts and large hail.  Other non-severe storms will have the possibility for heavy downpours and frequent lightning strikes.

The map below shows the latest Storm Prediction Center outlook that keeps most of our viewing area in the "Slight Risk" category for the chance of severe storms through Friday evening.

After the front moves through, drier air should filter in.  This should lower the humidity levels for the weekend, but not lower the temperature.  So, it should not feel as muggy over the weekend, but the afternoon temperatures should still be in the low 90s.  Morning lows should be just a little more comfortable with upper 60s because of the drier air.

You can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team to keep you updated!

David Glenn

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - "Slight Risk" of Strong Storms Friday


A Typical Summer Pattern

07/13/12

Nearly 3 inches of rain was received in Chattanooga during the week of July 9th.  This was one of the multi-day periods since June 10-11.  The yearly rainfall deficit still stands at 5.04 inches below normal.

The upcoming pattern for the next 7 to 10 days will be one that is typical for July.  The Bermuda High pressure system should build back in.  This puts us in a pattern that will keep conditions hot and humid each afternoon, though nowhere near as hot as the last heat wave.  Daily highs should average in the low 90s and morning lows in the low 70s which is around the normal range for July.

The southerly upper level wind flow around the Bermuda High should keep ample Gulf moisture moving in.  But, with no fronts moving in, daytime heating will be the main spark for scattered showers and storms to flare up each afternoon and into the early evening hours.  The overall risk of widespread severe storms remains very low in this time of pattern.  But, keep in mind that heavy downpours and frequent lightning strikes are possible with most of the storms that build up.  Remember what we always advise..."When the thunder roars, go indoors".

The maps below show the latest 6-10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center.  The CPC agrees with our outlook that temperatures should average near or just slightly above normal.  Rainfall amounts are also expected to be just a little above average because of the daily chance of PM t-showers.

Be sure to check out our Newschannel 9 Zoom Radar to track storms in your neighborhood.  You can also check out the Newschannel 9 Facebook Page and the StormTrack 9 Facebook Page for local weather updates.  Be sure to also follow the StormTrack 9 Team on Twitter:
@StormTrack9Dave......@StormTrack9Bill.....@StormTrack9Dish

David Glenn

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - A Typical Summer Pattern WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - A Typical Summer Pattern


Gust Front Causes Local Damage Thursday

07/05/12

A gust front caused widespread wind damage across the Tennessee Valley Thursday evening.

As discussed in our earlier post, the risk existed for the possibility of severe storms and damaging gusts for Thursday afternoon and evening.  Many folks were wondering if it was a tornado.  Not this time.  The damage was caused by a phenomenon known as a gust front.

A gust front is simply the outflow wind of an approaching line of thunderstorms (in some cases just from a single thunderstorm).  Gust fronts can happen often locally with approaching storms, but on some rare occasions like tonight, they can be quite strong.  The combination of the extreme heat over the southeast fueling the storms and a strong disturbance dropping down from the north created the strong line of storms that moved through the Ohio Valley, then through the Tennessee Valley.  As the line of storms began collapsing just to our north, the wind outflow (or gust front) continued full speed ahead to the south.  So, in some areas, the damaging wind rolled in even without a drop of rain.

The result was downed trees, limbs and powerlines.  Homes were damaged as well.  It simply rubs salt in the wound for those of us still weary from the tornado damage the past two Springs.

Temperatures near 100 should continue for Friday and Saturday.  Some afternoon and evening storms will again be possible.  We always have to be aware of the risk for damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning.  Better rain chances and lower temperatures by early next week.

David Glenn

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Gust Front Causes Local Damage Thursday


Heat & Possible Strong Storms Thursday

07/04/12

Thursday should be another very hot day, but the potential is there again for some strong storms during the afternoon and evening hours.

We had somewhat of a break from the extreme heat on Independence Day as the showers and storms developed during the early afternoon.  Chattanooga's high was 95, but just to our north and west, temperatures surpassed 100 at Huntsville and Nashville.  So, the heat is still lingering close by and should again be felt locally on Thursday.  High temperatures should again close in on the 100 degree mark with a Heat Index feeling more like it is above 100.

Storm chances could increase area wide Thursday as an upper level disturbance drops in from the north-northwest.  The combination of this disturbance moving in, along with the peak heating of the day could lead to some strong to severe storms.  This means that a few storms could produce damaging wind gusts and large hail.  Aside from those elements, heavy rain and frequent lightning strikes will also be possible.

A few storms on Wednesday did produce some wind damage in Whitfield Co, along with lightning sparking a structure fire.  Wind damage occurred Tuesday over parts of Monroe Co near Sweetwater.  So, each day different parts of the viewing area have experienced some severe elements.  Extreme heat can often lead to stronger wind gusts and even some downburst/microburst activity that can cause damage.  Because of the dry conditions, trees and tree limbs can more easily snap even during non severe storm wind gusts.

The map below shows the latest forecast for Thursday from the Storm Prediction Center.  The Tennessee Valley has been placed in the "Slight Risk" category for the possibility of severe storms.

You can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team to keep you updated!

David Glenn

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Heat & Possible Strong Storms Thursday


Temperatures as we go through Saturday June 30th, 2012

06/30/12

The high temperature in Chattanooga was 107 today.  This breaks the all time record high since record keeping began. 
At 4 pm ET: Temperature is 105... Heat Index is 107.  Bill Race
At 3 pm ET: Temperature is 103... Heat Index is 105.  Bill Race
At 2 pm ET: Temperature is 102... Heat Index is 105.  Bill Race
At 1 pm ET:  Temperature is 99... Heat index is 102.  Bill Race
At Noon ET:   Temperature is 96...  Heat index is 99.  Bill Race




New Records Set & More Could Follow

06/29/12

The high temperature of Friday was 106.  This surpasses a couple of records and ties one.

The 106 high temperature breaks the daily record of 102 set in 1936.  This also tops the all time June record of 104 from June 28, 1952.  This also ties the all time record high for Chattanooga which has held since July 28, 1952.

Daily high temperature records are again in jeopardy for Saturday through Monday.  Here is a look at the current records and the forecast highs.

Saturday:  Current Record: 103 (1952).....Projected High: 104

Sunday: Current Record: 101 (1954)....Projected High: 103

Monday:  Current Record: 99 (1954)....Projected High: 101

David Glenn




Heat Records In Jeopardy

06/27/12

A major heat wave will continue to build across the Tennessee Valley, especially in a stretch of days from Friday through Monday.

High temperatures each afternoon could reach above 100.  Humidity values staying low for Friday and possibly Saturday, but higher levels Sunday and Monday which could result in Heat Index values nearing 110.  Record high temperatures are a possibility each day.  Here is a look at the current records and projected highs:

Friday:  Projected High: 103     Record High: (102-1936)

Saturday:  Projected High: 103  Record High: (103-1952)

Sunday: Projected High: 103   Record High (101-1954)

Monday: Projected High: 101  Record High (99-1954)

The all time record high for Chattanooga is 106 set back on July 28, 1952.

The all time record high for June in Chattanooga is 104 set back on June 28, 1952 (same year, but one month earlier than the all time record high of 106).

David Glenn




Hot Days Continue & Watching The Gulf

06/22/12

High temperatures in the 90s should stick around through next week.

The heat is on and right on time as go through the first weekend of summer.  Daily high temperatures should reach the 90s and heat index values possible in the mid/upper 90s both Saturday and Sunday.  Only microscopic changes in the temperature by early next week.  Daily highs could briefly ease back to near 90 Monday and Tuesday, but then return to the mid 90s for the remainder of the week.  Normal high temperatures this time of year usually average in the upper 80s.

Rain chances remain slim and mainly just in the "pop up" category.  The best chance for any "pop ups" could be over the Blue Ridge Mtns.  A slight increase in some pop up t-showers on Monday area wide, but then mostly dry and hot through Thursday.  There might be a slight increase in the chance of scattered t-showers by the end of next week on Friday.

The potential big weather story for the weekend is the possibility of a tropical system developing in the Gulf.  The next name on this year's list is "Debby".  This system is already soaking central and southern Florida and will continue to do so through at least Monday (possibly longer depending upon the storm path).  A big danger is the risk of rip currents along the northern Gulf coast.  So, if you have travel plans between Gulf Shores-Pensacola-Destin & the beaches along 30-A, please be aware of the rip current risk.  If the red flags are flying, then you need to stay out of the water!

Click Here for the latest update on the developments in the Gulf

David Glenn




The Heat Is On....Again!

06/20/12

As Summer officially begins, the heat continues to build across the Tennessee Valley!

90s For A While
This is certainly not our first heat wave of 2012 as May was quite hot at times.  But, June has been a different story with the average temperature running just about 1.5 degrees below normal.  Wednesday was the first time all month that the official high temperature reached 90 or above this month.  The next 5-7 days should have temperatures averaging above normal levels locally.

High temperatures should average in the low 90s at most valley locations (80s mountains).  Heat index values could reach the mid/upper 90s over the weekend.  Low temperatures at night and through the morning hours should also be quite muggy in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Some Pop Ups Possible!
Widespread rain chances remain small the next few days, but at least some scattered t-showers will be possible providing some relief in spots.  That chance increases a bit on Thursday, but still just the "hit & miss" variety during the afternoon and early evening.  A weak front should fall apart upon reaching the Tennessee Valley on Friday, but it could help spark just a slightly better chance of some pop up t-showers Friday afternoon and evening.

Over the weekend, drier air moves in which should reduce any shower chances.  Therefore, with more sunshine, it should be hotter with high temperatures approaching the mid 90s.

David Glenn




A Typical June Weekend

06/15/12

A typical June pattern can be expected for the Tennessee Valley through the weekend and early next week!

Last Weekend of Spring!
Summer officially begins next Wednesday (20th), so this weekend is technically the last one of Spring!  As has been the case much of this Spring, it will be a very warm weekend.  High pressure off the east coast will continue to have a big influence on our weather.  Expect a sunny to partly sunny sky each afternoon and high temperatures in the upper 80s.  Any shower chances remain in the isolated category with just a few "pop ups" possible each afternoon and evening.  However, most areas should remain dry.

No Changes Into Next Week
The pattern should not change much into next week. This means that we can expect a similar pattern of partly sunny, hot days and only small chances of any late day t-showers.  Daily highs should average between the upper 80s to lower 90s.

David Glenn




More Nice Nights For Riverbend Through Wednesday

06/12/12

Some light rain fell at Ross's Landing Sunday Night, but the raindrops mostly stayed away from The Strut.  So far, so good for weather conditions and Riverbend 2012

Looking Good Through Wednesday
Dry conditions have returned to the Tennessee Valley, thanks to a cool front.  High pressure building in should keep it dry through early Thursday.  This means that Riverbend should have another great couple of nights both Tuesday and Wednesday.  Temperatures should be quite warm both evenings in the 80s, but cooling to the 70s by the time the main acts take the stage at 9:30pm.

Just Some Pop Up Showers Through Saturday
A typical June pattern should resume for Thursday through Saturday.  This means that each day should be partly sunny with daily highs in the upper 80s to near 90.  As far as t-shower chances, it remains low, but in the "slight chance" category each day.  Mainly the pop up afternoon & evening t-shower variety.  For Riverbend, just keep in mind that some pop ups are possible for the final evenings of the event, but nothing of an "all night" type of rain.  Temperatures should remain in the 80s through the evening hours, then 70s late evening.

Live Updates From Ross's Landing
The StormTrack 9 Team is once again the official weather provider for the 2012 Riverbend Festival.  We will have live updates each night on the big screen!




A Look At The First Weekend Of Riverbend

06/07/12

Riverbend 2012 begins Friday evening!  As always, weather is always closely watched as Chattanooga's biggest annual party begins.

Dry To Begin The Festival
Conditions look good for the first two nights of Riverbend.  A fair sky Friday night with temperatures in the 80s, then 70s as the evening moves on.  Saturday looks a little more humid.  So, as the gates open late Saturday afternoon, expect temperatures in the upper 80s and a heat index in the low 90s because of the rising humidity.  Skies should be partly sunny through sunset, with more clouds Saturday evening.  We will have to keep an eye on the radar Saturday evening for any scattered t-showers moving in from the south.  A better chance late Saturday night after midnight and toward Sunday morning.

Sunday Looks Humid With Scattered T-Showers
A more typical June patterns starts to settle in starting Sunday.  Expect more cloud cover and higher humidity. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning through evening.  Temperatures will be held down to the low/mid 80s, but also quite muggy.  During the evening hours, there will still be the chance for scattered t-showers.  As always, the StormTrack 9 Team will be providing weather updates at the festival site with a live look at Doppler radar.

Unsettled Pattern Through Next Week
This unsettled pattern could stick around through midweek of next week.  A slow moving front could keep showers and storms in the forecast.  Mostly on a scattered basis, but rainfall could be heavy at times..  Expect a cloudy to partly cloudy sky when showers are not occurring.  Shower chances should taper off during the late stage of the week and into the weekend.

Follow The StormTrack 9 Team
Be sure to follow us on social media!  Here are our team member Twitter accounts:

@StormTrack9Dave
@StormTrack9Bill
@StormTrack9Dish

Follow us on Facebook on the WTVC Newschannel 9 Page or the StormTrack 9 Page.  You can also follow my personal Facebook page: Meteorologist David Glenn WTVC.

Should threatening weather be an issue, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team to keep you updated!

David Glenn




A Safe Way To View The Transit Of Venus

06/05/12

The transit of Venus across the path of the sun will occur late afternoon Tuesday and into the evening.  Safe viewing will require filtered lenses as you should never stare directly at the sun.

Another "safe" alternative is to view this via the web and live coverage from NASA.  Here is the link!

Live NASA coverage Link




A Cool Start To June!

05/31/12

After a much warmer than average May, June should get off to a much cooler than average start!

May 2012, Another Warmer Than Normal Month
The average temperature for May in Chattanooga was 73.4 degrees which was 4.9 degrees above normal.  The hottest temperature was 94 degrees in May 27th.  The coldest temperatures was 49 degrees on both the 10th and 11th.  Each month of 2012 has had temperatures above normal so far.

June To Start Off Cool!
As June kicks off, the warmer than normal air gets the boot!  A cold front sweeps through Friday which should usher in temperatures below average.  Afternoon temperatures should hold in the 70s along with a brisk wind out of the northwest at 10-20mph.  Temperatures Friday night through Saturday morning could dip to near 50 in the city and even some upper 40s away from the city and at higher elevations.  This will be some 10-15 degrees below average, but not quite a record low.  The record low for Saturday morning is 43 degrees set in 1932.

Saturday afternoon should remain cooler than normal with afternoon highs mostly in the 70s with a few spots near 80.  Mid/upper 50s for Sunday morning, then mid 80s by Sunday afternoon.  Upper 80s return for early next week.

So, it will be nice to get a break from using the A/C over the next several days after the hotter than normal May.

David Glenn




A Cold Front Brings Severe Storm Chance, Then Much Cooler Air Moves In

05/30/12

A strong low pressure system and associated cold front for this time of year could bring a chance of strong to severe storms locally by late Thursday and through Thursday night.  This will be followed by some much cooler air for the first weekend of June.

"Slight Risk" of Severe Storms
Scattered showers and thunderstorms should begin to pop up again Thursday afternoon.  But, the better chance for stronger storms looks to be later Thursday night and into Friday morning.  The Storm Prediction Center has already placed a large part of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast under a "Slight Risk" category for the chance that a few storms could become severe.  This means that some storms could produce large hail and damaging wind.  The risk of tornadoes appears low, but as always, we will keep an eye on this. (See map below which shows that 15% of storms locally could become severe.)

Showers and storms should end through Friday afternoon as much drier air moves in.  This sets the stage for a nice start to the weekend on Saturday.

Much Cooler Start To The Weekend
Much cooler than normal air should invade the area for the first weekend of June.  Low temperatures by Saturday morning could dip into the low 50s locally.  This means that some areas north and mountains could dip to the upper 40s.  Afternoon highs on Saturday should range from the mid/upper 70s mountains and low 80s valley locations.  Morning lows on Sunday should again be in the upper 50s with afternoon highs a bit warmer in the mid/upper 80s.  The rapid warm up continues as temperatures approach 90 Monday.

David Glenn

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - A Cold Front Brings Severe Storm Chance, Then Much Cooler Air Moves In


Hot Holiday Weekend & Some Changes Next Week

05/25/12

Near record temperatures are still expected for the holiday weekend.  By next week, better chances for rain should slowly creep in and even some much cooler air by late next week.

Memorial Day
Please take time to reflect upon and honor those who gave so much to our nation.

A Hot Weekend

As mentioned in our earlier post, temperature records could be in jeopardy, especially Saturday and Sunday.  High temperatures each afternoon should reach the mid 90s ( upper 80s mountains), with Heat Index values from 95-100.  The record high for Saturday is 94 (1962), while the record high for Sunday is 95 (1911).  Memorial Day should again be hot, but with a few more clouds and some pop up storms, afternoon highs may hover around 90 which would be below the record high of 95 (1962).

Slim Holiday Weekend Rain Chances

Rain chances for the holiday weekend remain slim.  Only slight chances for any afternoon and evening pop up t-storms.  The slightly better chance into the Blue Ridge & Smoky Mtns.  Otherwise, most areas should be dry and partly sunny.  By Memorial Day, there could be a slightly better chance of mainly pop up afternoon storms.

Watching The Tropics

The National Hurricane Center continues to watch the possible developing system just north of the Bahamas that should initially drift northeast, but then slide back to the west-southwest.  This means that some tropical rains could fall along the GA/FL Atlantic coast, then possibly slide along the Fl Panhandle by Memorial Day.  Click Here for the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center

Some Severe Storms Possible Late Next Week.....Then Cooler

The chance for scattered afternoon and evening t-showers should increase Tuesday and Wednesday, otherwise a mix of clouds and sun each day.  But, by Thursday, a stronger clipper system diving in from the northwest could bring the potential for some strong to possibly severe storms Thursday and Thursday night.  Still too early for specifics, but the pattern shows the possibility of some strong storms.  Behind this front should be some much cooler air with high temperatures dropping to the 70s by next Friday and morning lows dipping back to the upper 50s to near 60 by then.  So, a lot to watch in the days ahead.

David Glenn




Early Season Heat Wave For The Holiday Weekend

05/23/12

It may only be May, but temperatures are about to soar to July and August levels.  Some record high temperatures could be tied or even broken over the weekend.

A ridge of high pressure aloft will build in by the weekend and remain strong through Memorial Day.  This means a hot and dry pattern for most of the holiday weekend.  The only exception being that some afternoon & evening pop up thunderstorms could return by Memorial Day.  Here is a look at the projected high temperatures and current record high temperatures for each day.

Friday:  Projected High: 92     Record High: 95 (1953)

Saturday: Projected High: 95   Record High: 94 (1962)

Sunday: Projected High: 94     Record High: 95 (1911)

Monday: Projected High: 91    Record High: 95 (1962)

After some pop up storms Monday, a slightly better chance for showers and storms could arrive for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week along with cooler afternoon temperatures in the 80s.

David Glenn: 




We Need More Rain, But Only Isolated Chances Expected

05/17/12

After some much needed rain fell Sunday and Monday, conditions have dried out again and the chances for more rain remain low for the next few days.

Only Isolated Chances

That headline pretty much sums it up!  For the period of Friday through Sunday, only small chances for isolated showers/t-showers can be expected locally.  The areas that do receive the showers will be fortunate with some decent downpours, but most areas should be partly sunny.

A low pressure system moving up the eastern seaboard could bring "tropical-like" rains along the coast and offshore.  For the Tennessee Valley, this means that dry air on the back side of the system will be reinforced and keeping our rain chances low through the weekend.  This should also allow temperatures to remain above normal with daily highs in the mid 80s.

Slightly Better Rain Chances Next Week

A slow moving cool front could approach the Tennessee Valley early next week and could help spark a slightly better chance of showers/t-showers for Monday through Wednesday.  Again, this rain chance remains just widely scattered for now.  Should the front stall out locally, we might see a better chance of rain.  We will continue to keep you posted on that!  See the first map below which shows the 5 day rainfall outlook which shows wet conditions both west and east of the Tennessee Valley, but only small amounts locally through Monday night.

Rainfall Stats For The Month/Season/Year

May Rainfall So Far:  1.62" (-0.76")

Spring 2012 Rainfall So Far:  7.71" (-3.64")

2012 Rainfall So Far: 17.06" (-4.04")

.......So, yes, we REALLY need some rain!!!!!!

Temperatures Remain Warm

Temperatures through the upcoming weekend will be a bit above normal in the mid 80s each day.  With slightly better rain chances early next week, the high temperatures should remain near normal.  By late next week and possibly into the Memorial Day weekend, temperatures look to remain at or above normal.  See the second map below which shows the 8-14 day temperature outlook which shows above normal temperatures expected locally.

David Glenn

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - We Need More Rain, But Only Isolated Chances Expected WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - We Need More Rain, But Only Isolated Chances Expected


Sad To See The Rain Exit, But Some Beautiful Days Are Ahead!

05/14/12

It was so nice to see some rain in the rain gauges helping quench the thirst of our lawns and gardens.

The 2 day rainfall total at Lovell Field as of 6pm Tuesday was 1.52".  Some areas received even more than that nearing the 2"+ mark as heavy downpours moved through during the afternoon and evening Tuesday.  The Lovell Field total was nearly double the amount of rain of what we received for the entire month of April (0.69").  Our yearly rainfall deficit stands at 3.64" below normal, but was knocked down quite a bit because of the rain on Sunday and Monday.

Drier conditions can now be expected for the next few days.  Some patchy fog Tuesday morning will give way to a mix of clouds and some sun.  Afternoon highs should near 80 at most valley locations (70s mountains).  Dry and sunny for Wednesday with low/mid 80s.  A few late afternoon t-showers could occur Thursday & low/mid 80s again.  Fairly quiet for Friday and the weekend with partly sunny skies each day and afternoon highs in the low/mid 80s.  Only small chances at this time for any pop up afternoon t-showers.

David Glenn




Weekend Outlook

05/11/12

The Weekend Outlook

As I outlined in the previous post, we really, really need some rain locally.  So, keep that in mind as the better chance of rain creeps in through the weekend.

Increasing cloud cover for Saturday and a steady breeze from the southeast.  The temperatures through the afternoon should be a little lower than Friday because of the clouds.  Expect mainly low to mid 70s, except upper 60s mountains.  Some scattered showers are going to be possible during the day.  A slight chance during the morning, then a better chance of mainly scattered showers during the afternoon and evening.  In other words, not raining everywhere and not the all day variety.  Cloudy with occasional showers Saturday night & near 60.

Sunday, Mother's Day, looks cloudy with a better chance of off and on periods of rain and even some thunderstorms.  The threat of severe weather with this system remains low locally.  High temperatures again should be held to the low 70s (60s mountains).  Off and on periods of rain and a few t-storms should continue through Sunday night and Monday.  Drier air moves in for Tuesday and the rest of next week looks very nice with daily highs returning to near 80.

The map below shows the latest NOAA rainfall outlook for the period of Saturday night through Monday night.  You will notice a large part of the Southeast should get some much needed rain. including the Tennessee Valley (See map below).  Here is a look at the various computer forecast model rainfall projections for Chattanooga.

GFS Model: 1.23"
NAM Model: 1.44"

With an over 4 inch rainfall deficit locally, this would be some welcome raindrops.  Hoping the pattern continues to look promising!

David Glenn

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Weekend Outlook


Some Much Needed Rain Could Be On The Horizon

05/10/12

The Tennessee Valley continues to suffer through a dry Spring.  Take a look at some of these stats:

May 2012 Rain So Far: 0.09"  (1.32" below average)

Spring 2012 Rainfall So Far:  6.18" (4.20" below average)

2012 Rainfall So Far: 15.53" (4.60" below average)

As you can see, the very dry Spring pattern is the sole reason that we have a yearly rainfall deficit.

A better chance of rain could be on the horizon for late weekend and early next week.  A slow moving low pressure system should pass south of us along the Gulf coast.  This could lead to a wet pattern locally.  There are still some differences in timing among the various computer models.  But, the period from late Sunday through early Tuesday could be wet with numerous showers locally. Right now the threat of severe weather looks low. We will continue to monitor this chance for some much needed rain through the weekend. 

The map below is a look at the latest NOAA rainfall outlook from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning.  It projects a large part of the Southeast with a 1"-2" average of rain and could include the Tennessee Valley.

David Glenn

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - Some Much Needed Rain Could Be On The Horizon


Cooler Mornings Ahead

05/08/12

After a summer like weekend and start to the work week, some cooler air should filter into the Tennessee Valley beginning Wednesday.

Wednesday should be cooler than the past several days with afternoon highs only in the mid 70s (near 70 mountains).  This is about 10 degrees cooler than the afternoon highs on Tuesday.  Cloud cover should linger Wednesday with some late day clearing.  And, there is still the chance for a few isolated showers through Wednesday morning and afternoon.

A clearing sky and much cooler Wednesday night through Thursday morning with temperatures dipping to near 50 (40s mountains and outlying areas).  Sunshine and low humidity Thursday with highs in the mid 70s.  Upper 40s are again possible by Friday morning.  Though these morning temperatures will be below average for early May, they are not quite at record levels.  Here are the record low temperatures for Thursday & Friday:

Thursday's Record Low: 38 (1966)
Friday's Record Low: 40 (1954)

Afternoon temperatures should near 80 by Friday and the weekend.  A few pop up showers are possible Saturday, but a slightly better chance of rain Sunday and Monday.  We really need the rain as the yearly rainfall deficit currently stands at 4.40" below average.

David Glenn




A Hot Weekend, But Cooler Temps Are Coming Soon

05/04/12

Temperatures should remain summer-like through the weekend, but should return to seasonal levels by next week.

About That Brighter Full Moon!
The moon will reach its perigee or closest point to earth during its cycle for the month.  This perigee will be the closest for this year resulting in a full moon that will be about 16% brighter Saturday night.  That is basically the only effects locally.  As always, the moon will "appear" larger when it is lower on the horizon because of what is called the "moon illusion".  The visual effect is most noticeable when you see the moon low on the horizon compared to objects on the ground.  Always a good time for a photo!  The moon will rise at 8:21pmET Saturday evening, with the moon becoming "full" at 11:35pmET.  The moon will be at its farthest point from earth (apogee) on November 28th.

www.space.com has a wealth of information about the "Supermoon"

Cinco De Mayo Weekend
Temperatures will continue to feel like July for this first weekend of May.  Partly sunny both Saturday and Sunday with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to near 90.  The local mountain tops will be just a tad cooler with highs in the low 80s.  There will be chances for pop up showers & storms both days.  Just widely scattered, but if you do happen to experience a storm in your neighborhood be prepared for heavy downpours and frequent lightning.  If you have outdoor plans, please remember lightning safety rules....."When the thunder roars, go indoors".  Be sure to wait 30 minutes after the last visible lightning strike or audible clap of thunder before resuming outdoor activities.  Most thundershowers should fade out into the evening hours.

A Wetter Start Next Week, Then Cooler
A better chance for showers and storms is possible on Monday and continuing into Monday night and Tuesday.  This could finally mean some much needed rain over most of the viewing area instead of the pop up variety of showers we have had lately.  Rain should end late Tuesday night and into Wednesday followed by some drier and much cooler air.  This means a drier pattern for Wednesday through Friday, but daily highs will only be in the mid 70s and morning lows cooling to the 50s.  Next Thursday morning could be the coolest with near 50 in the city and possibly some upper 40s away from the city.

David Glenn




Temperature Records In Jeopardy As May Begins

05/01/12

The start of May will feel more like July as temperatures creep close to the 90 degree mark!.  The official high temperature at Lovell Field Tuesday was 90 degrees.  This tied the record high from 1951 for May 1st.  Here are the record highs for Wednesday through Friday.

Wednesday: 92 (1942)
Thursday: 89 (1959)
Friday: 90 (1955)

Each of these records could be a close call each afternoon!

David Glenn




April Showers Were Absent in 2012

04/30/12

The usual April showers were a rare sight in the Tennessee Valley for 2012.  The rainfall total for the month was 0.69".  This was 3.18" below the average rainfall for the month.  And, it was not far from the all time record for driest April which occurred in 1976 when only 0.44" of rain fell.  The yearly total stands at only 15.44" which is 3.16" below normal.  A large part of the yearly deficit due to the dry April.

April temperatures followed on the heels of a very warm March.  It was nowhere near a record though.  The average temperature was 63.9 which was 3.5 degrees above normal.  For comparison sake, the average temperature for March 2012 was 62.9 degrees which was 10.7 degrees above normal.

The NOAA May Outlook

The maps below will show the latest temperature and rainfall forecasts for May.  In summary, an above normal trend for temperatures is again possible locally.  As for rainfall, the long range outlook is a little inconclusive.  NOAA projects the category of "Equal Chances of Above or Below" for rainfall over the Southeast and including the Tennessee Valley.

David Glenn

WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - April Showers Were Absent in 2012 WTVC NewsChannel 9 :: Blogs - Storm Track 9 - April Showers Were Absent in 2012


Remembering April 27, 2011

04/26/12

On the night of April 26th, I was having dinner with my family.  My wife knew that I had been concerned for days about the upcoming weather pattern for the next day.  She asked me, "what does your gut tell you?".  I told her, "it's the same as I felt the day before Hurricane Katrina.....this system could be very bad".  She knew I was serious.  When I worked in Mobile, AL, she and my sons had to evacuate north 3 times in one year due to the strong hurricanes of 2004-2005.  Hurricane Katrina being the worst.  She knew that we could not really evacuate for something like this. So, we spent the length of our dinner discussing the safety plan for our house and made sure my sons were clear on what to do.  Likewise, the bulk of my broadcast time that Tuesday night was spent urging viewers to do the same.  Be Prepared and Stay Alert!

Meteorologists can get a gauge of the "potential" energy within a developing storm system by looking at various computer model indices.  One such equation or index is called the SWEAT index which stands for "Severe Weather Threat" index.  It takes into account the stability of the atmosphere and the wind profile.  A SWEAT index of over 400 means that supercell storms are likely with some that could produce strong tornadoes.  The projected SWEAT index for April 27th was 527!  I had never seen this before.  Two different computer model runs on April 26th yielded totals above 500.  I then emailed my boss, Tom Henderson, to give him a brief on my thoughts for the next day.  I told him exactly what I told my wife..."I have never seen anything like this before locally and it could be very bad".  I closed the email with this quote..."I hope I am wrong".  If there was ever a forecast when I wanted to be wrong, it was this one.

The next day saw our weather team stay on the air continuously for nearly 18 hours.  Only having a short 15 minute break after 1pm.  Bill Race had done a tremendous job during the morning hours.  It was like watching an aerial assault unfold.  A literal conveyor belt of supercells constantly moving in from the southwest.  I cannot tell you how many times we said "hunker down" or "get to your safe place"....for you can never say it enough in this type of situation.  Jason Disharoon and I spent those long hours analyzing those storms right down to street level to be as detailed as possible on what areas could be affected.  Often times there would be several warnings in effect at the same time.  Our newsroom staff likewise worked the same long hours gathering information from across the viewing area.  Some out in the elements covering the damage as storms continued to move through.

At 6pm I sent a text to my wife urging her to get to the basement as yet another supercell was sprinting toward downtown Chattanooga and our house on Missionary Ridge.  I received a reply from her stating..."OK, we are in the basement".  30 minutes later, Tom Henderson motioned for me to step off camera and for Jason to take over.  Tom told me that he had just received a phone call from my neighbor that a tree had struck our house.  I knew immediately which tree it was.  It was the huge oak tree in my neighbor's yard that had a natural lean toward my house.  I immediately called my wife and with each ring I kept saying "pick up...pick up...pick up".  She finally answered in a chipper voice and said "hey".  I said, "are you all ok?".  She assured me that they were fine, but she knew nothing about the tree.  They had heard nothing.  I asked her to take a look upstairs and upon getting there she confirmed that the tree had indeed sideswiped the house puncturing the roof.  She said that the house was still fine, but leaking.  I wanted to go home and check on them, but she told me that they would be okay and to keep broadcasting.  It was a brief sense of relief, because I knew that the storms continued to rage and lives were at risk.

It was truly painful watching these monster storms roll over our local communities.  We kept pleading for folks to get to safety and take these warnings seriously.  With each passing storm we were getting the dreadful news of damage and injuries.  And, it only escalated through the night.  The last Tornado Warning expired shortly after midnight.  We then broadcasted our normal 11pm newscast at that time.  I sat at the news desk with Kim and Calvin.  We rolled on some raw video of the damage in Ringgold.  They both asked me my thoughts.  I simply could not speak.  Emotionally drained and tears welling up, there were just no words.  Taking a deep breath and gaining my composure I had to get right back to the task of discussing the current radar trends and detailing when all the storms would end.

Our marathon storm coverage ended after 1am.  Time was still spent updating our web site and making sure every square mile of our viewing area was out of danger.  I was finally able to go home around 2am.  It was a silent drive home with periods of trembling lips and tears.  I arrived home to a dark house because of no power.  Everyone was asleep in the den so as to stay together.  I just sat there in the dark watching them all sleep.  For as thankful as I was for their safety, I felt guilty.  I knew that many others were not as fortunate.  I never slept.  

People often ask me what it was like during those long hours of broadcasting that day.  It's a question that is very hard to answer.  Yes, the hours were long and it seemed the storms would never end.  It was an emotionally stressful day as you can imagine as we all felt that way.  It was challenging because so many people were losing power, so we had to explore every avenue possible for people to receive storm warnings (via radio & smart phone).  But, in the end, it was sad.  One of the saddest days of my life.  You have probably heard the term "heavy heart".  Mine felt like an anvil.  People in my hometown area had suffered a devastating blow.  Some lost their homes, while other lost their lives.   

From time to time people will tell me that what we did April 27th saved lives.  While I appreciate those comments I am still reminded of those that did not survive.  How can our coverage be better?  That is a question I challenge myself with constantly.  For as much technology we have available, we can still be better.  One of the most important ways is making sure people are receiving storm warnings.  As I mentioned earlier, the massive loss of electrical power on April 27th was limiting how some people were receiving warnings.  Without a TV, cell phone or radio, some were left without a source of information.  Storm sirens are scarce locally and should only be used as last resort.  Having a NOAA weather alert radio is something I have highly recommended for years.  Just days after the tornado outbreak the StormTrack 9 Team began a campaign of traveling to communities across the Tennessee Valley promoting the use of these potential life saving radios.  Thanks to a partnership with Midland & Walgreens, we have placed over 15,000 new weather alert radios in homes locally.  A portion of the proceeds has also gone to local charities for tornado relief.  And, one year later, our campaign continues.  As I tell everyone, we cannot control the weather, but we can control how we react to severe weather and being better prepared.  We will continue those efforts in the weeks and months ahead.  It has helped me with the healing process.

One year later, we will still never forget.  I will never forget seeing the damage first hand as we toured the area.  I will also never forget the resilient spirit of my fellow hometown friends and neighbors.  Those who came armed with chainsaws and volunteered countless hours to clear trees.  Those who cooked hundreds of meals.  Those who helped rebuild.  On April 27th, we witnessed the worst in weather.  On April 28th, we saw the best in humanity.  And we still do today.

David Glenn




Another Cold Night, But Warmer Days Are Ahead

04/23/12

A "March-like" chill continues across the Tennessee Valley through Tuesday morning, but warmer afternoons are ahead!

30s Possible and Even Frost In Spots
Monday night through Tuesday morning should be the coldest period of the next 7 days.  Overnight temperatures should drop to the upper 30s around the city, with low/mid 30s possible in outlying areas and mountains.  Patchy frost could be a problem in spots.  The steady breeze should keep it from being to widespread.  Tuesday night will not be as cold as nighttime temperatures will remain in the mid/upper 40s.

Brief Shower Chance Tuesday Night
A few fast moving disturbances in the northerly flow aloft could bring a few showers back Tuesday night.  Clouds should increase Tuesday with a few sprinkles possible late.  Scattered showers are possible Tuesday Night through early Wednesday morning.  No severe weather is expected and rainfall amounts should be light.

Warmer Afternoons Ahead
Temperatures more typical of late April should return by Wednesday afternoon and continue through the start of the weekend.  Temperatures should reach the mid 70s Wednesday afternoon and nearing 80 by Thursday and Friday.  Some scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers/t-showers are possible both days.  Afternoon temps should remain near 80 again Saturday, but cool a bit to the low 70s by Sunday.

Get A New Weather Alert Radio!
The StormTrack 9 Team has programmed nearly 15,000 new Midland Weather Alert Radios since last May.  Our tour of the Tennessee Valley continues this Wednesday at the Walgreens in Dunlap from 10am-7pmET.  You can also join us next Sunday at the Chattanooga Market from 11am-4pmET.  We will have new Midland Weather Alert Radios for sale and our staff will program it for you.  You can also bring in any other weather radio that you have and we will be glad to make sure it is properly programmed.

David Glenn




Wet Through Early Wednesday....Rain Returns For The Weekend

04/17/12

Some rainy periods over the next few days and even another shot of cool air.

Wet Through First Half Of Wednesday
A stalled front has kept our weather pattern unsettled and will continue to create periods of rain through Wednesday.  The chance of severe weather remains very low, so this is mainly a wet system.  Off and on periods of rain will continue through the morning commute Wednesday, then gradually taper off through the afternoon.  Rainfall amounts could exceed an inch in many areas across the Tennessee Valley.

Drier & Warmer Through Friday
Drier conditions can be expected Wednesday night through Friday.  Cool mornings with temperatures near 50, but each afternoon should be warmer with a mix of sun and clouds.  Afternoon highs should reach the upper 70s Thursday and near 80 Friday.  More cloud cover should move in through Friday night, but rain chances should remain low until Saturday.

Weekend Rain
A low pressure system is expected to move to our south along the Gulf coast through Saturday and Sunday.  This could bring another round of rain and possibly some thunderstorms.  The rain/storm chances should increase Saturday morning and into the afternoon.  The best chance for severe storms should be along the Gulf coast to our south, but as always we will keep an eye on that. The rain could linger into Sunday before ending late.  So, the weekend could be a wet one.  Rainfall totals could be in the 0.50"-1.00" range. (See first map below for regional rainfall forecast)

Another Cool Spell
Another brief shot of cooler than normal air could arrive by late weekend which could drop our high temperatures to the 60s and morning lows in the 40s through early next week.  The risk of any frost looks small for now. 

The long range temperature outlook has us below normal through early next week, followed by above normal temperatures the middle and end of next week.  (See second map below)

David Glenn

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Warmest March on Record for the United States

04/09/12

We knew it was a warmer than average March, but as it turns out, it was a record breaker for the United States. Here in Chattanooga, our average temperature for the month was 62.9, shattering the old record of 60.8 set back in 1921. Over the course of the month, 3 daily highs were broken with several more tied.

For the country as a whole, the average temperature was 42. Sounds chilly, but considering the average temperature for the country in March is 36, it was well above the average and broke the all time record. The warm weather also caused an increase in severe weather over the course of the month as well. Typically, there are 80 confirmed tornadoes during the third month of the year. This year, there were 223 preliminary tornado reports during that period, almost 3 times the average.

And while we broke 3 record highs here in Chattanooga, the country as a whole toppled a staggering 7,755 records during the month. If you take out Alaska and Hawaii from the statistics, January through March 2012 provided the warmest climatological winter ever for the Contiguous United States.

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A Drier & Cooler Pattern

04/06/12

After days and weeks of temperatures feeling more like May & June, a cooler pattern will finally move back in to the Tennessee Valley.

A Dry Weekend
Saturday should be sunny, but temperatures early could be a bit chilly.  Morning lows should be in the low 40s and even some upper 30s in the outlying areas.  A light touch of frost along the Plateau.  Temperatures should rapidly warm into the low 70s by Saturday (60s mountains).  Some clouds should move back in through Saturday night with low temperatures in the upper 40s.

Easter Sunday looks dry, but with more cloud cover.  Sunrise should be partly cloudy with temperatures in the upper 40s to near 50.  Sunday afternoon should have variable clouds with some peeks of sun and afternoon highs returning to the middle 70s.

Even Cooler Next Week
Monday should be partly to mostly cloudy with afternoon temperatures again in the low/mid 70s.  But, by Tuesday an even cooler blast of air moves in.  As a front dives through the wind should pick up from the north-northwest and usher in some cooler air.  High temperatures of Tuesday should stay in the mid/upper 60s along with a breeze.  Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning should be quite chilly with temperatures near 40 and even some mid/upper 30s away from the city leading to some possible scattered frost.  Temperatures should rapidly recover back to near 70 by next Thursday and Friday along with morning temperatures not as cold.

Frosts Are Still "Seasonal"
It has been several weeks since our temperatures have been frosty.  But, the chance of frost by midweek is actually still "seasonal".  The average date for a last frost is April 19th.  So, while the temperature might be a little below average for next week, it's still not uncommon.

David Glenn




Storm Chances Increase For Wednesday & Thursday

04/03/12

The coverage of showers and storms should increase locally for Wednesday and especially Thursday.  Some of the storms could be severe with damaging wind and hail.

"Slight Risk" For Wednesday
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined its "Slight Risk" zone to include the western edge of the viewing area for Wednesday.  The overall risk chance is set at 15% for a large part of northern Alabama and middle Tennessee. (See maps below).  This means that some storms could produce damaging wind gust and hail.  The tornado threat remains low, but not zero.  So, we will continue to keep an eye on things both Wednesday and Thursday.

Better Chance Thursday
An upper level low that brought devastating storms to the Dallas area Tuesday, will eventually move our way.  This will create a better coverage of showers and possible strong thunderstorms locally through Thursday.  The system should weaken a bit by the time it reaches the Tennessee Valley, so probably not duplicating what was seen Tuesday in Dallas.  However, the storms locally could still be strong with the risk of hail and damaging wind gusts.  Isolated tornadoes can never be ruled out.  The risk looks low for now, and we will continue to monitor things!

Storm chances should continue through Thursday night.  As the upper "low" moves over the region Friday, periods of rain will still be possible. 

Still Looks Dry For The Easter Weekend
Drier and cooler air should filter in by Friday afternoon and continue into the Easter weekend.  Expect a return of sunshine both Saturday and Sunday with daily highs in the mid 70s and morning lows in the upper 40s.  Sunrise Easter is around 7:20amET and temperatures should be in the upper 40s.

Even cooler air is possible into next week which could push morning lows a little cooler into the low 40s during the week.  And, daily highs might be held to the upper 60s/low 70s early next week.  So, a possible taste of Dogwood Winter.

David Glenn

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The Week Ahead...

04/01/12

The first week of April should remain quite warm, but a gradual increase in thunderstorm activity can be expected as well.

It's Official....March 2012 Was Warmest Ever
March 2012 is now in the record books as the warmest March on record.  The average temperature for the month was 62.9 degrees which shatters the old record of March 1921 with an average temperature of 60.8 degrees.  There were 3 daily high temperature records set during the month.  March 15th was the warmest day with a high of 86.

Mid 80s Continue Through Tuesday
The work week should get off to another very warm start.  Afternoon highs both Monday and Tuesday should reach the mid 80s under partly sunny skies.  Rain chances remain small and mainly the pop up afternoon and evening variety of t-showers.  Morning lows mostly in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

Better Rain & Storm Chances Wednesday & Thursday
Earlier posts have noted the increased chance for showers and storms for midweek.  An upper level low pressure system is expected to slowly drift east out of the southern Plains states and through the remainder of the Southeast from mid to late week.  This should create a better chance of more widespread showers and storms locally.

As far as our chances of severe storms, the chance is there.  Model data is not all that impressive with the overall energy, but that is something that will be analyzed daily.  So, for now, our forecast has the chance of some heavy rain Wednesday and Thursday along with a few strong to severe storms.  Hail and damaging wind gusts being the main element for now.  Isolated tornadoes can never be ruled out, and the risk for now remains low.  That is something I will keep an eye on over the next few days.  We are in the heart of Spring, so you can depend on us to keep you updated in the days ahead!

David Glenn





Weekend & Long Range Outlook

03/29/12

With the exception of some isolated t-storms Saturday, March will probably go out like a lion!

Warmer Saturday Afternoon
Saturday morning could be cloudy and foggy to begin with.  But, as the day goes on we should begin to see a mix of sun and clouds.  There will still be a slight chance for a passing pop up t-shower as a front moves through the Tennessee Valley.  The coverage of any t-showers should be much less than what we had Friday.  Temperatures will also be a little warmer with afternoon highs nearing 80, but 70s on the mountains.

No Fooling, Sunday Looks Nice!
April Fool's Day should not have any tricks from the world of weather.  Instead, we should have a dry day under a sunny to partly sunny sky.  It will be a little cooler during the morning with temperatures near 50.  But, by afternoon, temperatures should rapidly warm back to the mid 80s.  The mid 80s should stick around for Monday under a partly sunny Sky.

Keeping An Eye on Tuesday/Wednesday Storm Chances
For several days we have been keeping an eye on a possible system for the early to mid stage of next week.  As I stated in an earlier post, there have been a lot of differences in long range forecast models.  And, that continued on Friday.  The timing of this system has been pushed back a bit more toward the Tuesday night and Wednesday time frame.

The set up is not etched in stone and is still in question.  So, it remains to early to determine how strong the system will be and where the best chances of strong storms will develop.  But, in our forecast for now, I am including the chance for the possibility of strong to severe storms from late Tuesday through early Thursday.  As always, you can depend on us to keep you posted in the days ahead!

Have a great weekend!

David Glenn




Better Chance of T-Showers For Friday

03/29/12

Expect a better chance of scattered t-showers for Friday, with lower chances over the weekend.

T-Showers For Friday

A better chance of scattered showers and storms can be expected for Friday through Friday evening. The chance for widespread severe storms remains low, but a few isolated strong storms are always a slight possibility with Spring storm systems.  The latest computer model forecasts do not show a lot of shear and instability which should help keep the severe risk low.  The Storm Prediction Center keeps the better chance of organized severe storms to our north.  Scattered showers and storms should taper off Friday evening and only slight chances overnight.(See First Map Posted Below)

80s Continue For The Weekend

A very warm pattern will continue through the weekend along with lower chances for t-showers.  Saturday should have a mix of sun and clouds with afternoon highs in the low 80s.  Some scattered t-showers are possible during the afternoon, but fewer in number than Friday.  Sunday looks even warmer with mid 80s and only an isolated chance for a thunderstorm, otherwise partly sunny.

Severe Storms Possible Next Week?

A lot of viewers have emailed me about the chance of severe storms next week.  There is the chance for scattered strong thunderstorms on Tuesday,  The big question right now is..how strong?  There are still some differences in the long range computer forecast models.  For example, the GFS model shows two areas of low pressure.  One over the Great Lakes, and the other moving through the Tennessee Valley.  (See second map posted below).  "If" that scenario occurred, then the chance for severe storms and heavy rain goes up.  However, the European Model (ECMWF), only has one low pressure system over the Great Lakes and not a second one farther south. (See third map posted below)  "If" that scenario occurred, there could still be some storms Tuesday with the passage of a cold front, but not as strong as the forecast from the GFS.

So, we will keep an eye on this system and it's still too early to get specific.  Temperatures will be a little cooler after the front passes with highs dropping to the upper 60s/lower 70s by next Wednesday and Thursday, along with morning lows in the 40s....A little taste of Dogwood Winter!

David Glenn

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March 2012 Still On Record Pace

03/27/12

March 2012 is still on pace to be the warmest March on record in Chattanooga.

Closing In On The Record
The average temperature so far in Chattanooga for March 2012 is 61.9 degrees.  So far, this tops the current record warmest of March 1921 with an average of 60.8 degrees.  With just 4 days left in the month and temperatures remaining above normal, it's appearing likely that March 2012 will be the new record holder.

Any Signs Of An April Chill?
Well, with the dogwoods in bloom, naturally we keep looking over our shoulders for "dogwood winter".
Temperatures should remain above normal through the upcoming weekend.  See the first map which illustrates the GFS model outlook of temperatures remaining above normal through Saturday (Click the 1st map for a larger view)

Most long range model projections begin to show the possibility of a trough developing in the eastern US.  This could occur during the first 10 days of April and could mean some chilly nights (or dogwood winter possibly).  The second map illustrates the GFS model outlook for the end of next week to possibly have temperatures averaging a little below normal locally and regionally. (Click on 2nd map for a larger view)

Likewise, the official NOAA 6-10 day temperature outlook agrees with this and has our average temperatures easing back a bit from above normal to normal.  Even a little below normal to our east. (Click on the 3rd map for a larger view)

As always, you can depend on us to keep you updated!

David Glenn

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Warmer Weather Stays In Place

03/26/12

We've been talking about above average temperatures for so long now that you may be wondering just how much longer they'll last. While there are many driving forces behind our weather pattern, La Nina is the dominant feature at this time. Typically, when La Nina is strong, our temperatures are warmer than average during this time of year. For the record, average highs in late March are around 67-68 and average lows are 43-44.

While La Nina is slowly weakening, NOAA is forecasting the warmer than average temperatures to last throughout April and beyond. The two graphics show that our chances for warmer temperatures will continue through April. Keep in mind that the graphic shows the chance is there for above average temperatures to continue; it doesn't necessarily mean that temperatures will stay well above average. Our precipitation outlook shows equal chances for above or below average amounts through the month of April.

La Nina isn't forecast to dissipate until the fall so it appears the chances for warmer weather will remain throughout the summer. But another thing to realize is that doesn't necessarily mean 100 degree days this summer. The forecast calls for above average temperatures, but doesn't forecast just how warm those temperatures could be.

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Weekend & Long Range Outlook

03/23/12

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday, but Sunday should be drier.

Some Storms Possible Saturday

An upper level "low" will slide across Tennessee Saturday.  This should help to destabilize the atmosphere and could spark the development of some showers and storms during the afternoon and evening.  The upper "low" will also lower the freezing level in altitude aloft.  This means that some storms will be capable of producing hail,

Expect high temperatures on Saturday in the lower 70s.  Most shower and storm activity should end Saturday evening, followed by a partly cloudy sky.  Temperatures will also be a little cooler by Sunday morning ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Drier Sunday
Sunday should be a nicer day as dry air filters in behind the departing upper "low".  Expect a mix of clouds and some sun with afternoon temperatures in the low/mid 70s and possibly only upper 60s mountains.  A steady breeze from the northwest at 10-15mph will also make it feel even cooler.  Temperatures Sunday night should dip to the mid/upper 40s overnight.

Dry, Warmer Start To The Upcoming Week
The upcoming work week should be very nice to begin with.  Sunny to partly sunny both Monday and Tuesday with daily highs in the mid/upper 70s and morning lows near 50.  There is a slight chance of showers on Wednesday with highs again in the mid 70s.  More clouds, but only slim rain chances Thursday and Friday with daily highs in the upper 70s and morning lows in the low 50s.

Record Warm March?
We continue to be on record pace for the warmest March ever recorded in Chattanooga.  As of this posting, the average temperature for March 2012 so far is 61.6 degrees.  This continues to be above the current record holder of March, 1921 with an average temperature of 60.8 degrees.  Temperatures the next 7 days should continue to average above normal, so the record could be officially topped on the 31st.

Longer Range Continues To Be Warmer Than Normal
We continue to be on "Dogwood Winter" Watch as everything is in full bloom.  Usually a cool spell follows, but so far there are no signs of threatening frosts or freezes the next 7-10 days.  NOAA outlooks are in general agreement with model data showing a continuation of above normal temperatures the next 7-14 days.  Temperatures may not be near the record levels of this past week, but still above the seasonal average.



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Storm Prediction Center Takes Us Out Of Slight Risk Today

03/23/12

No longer in the slight risk for today, but some thunderstorms still expected today. 

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Showers and Some Thunderstorms Possible Through Tonight

03/12/12

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the Tennessee Valley through this afternoon and into the evening hours. The risk for severe storms remains low, but as awlways we will keep an eye on this through tonight.

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