Weekend Showers & Storms
05/17/13
The weekend is approaching, so naturally showers and t-showers plan on visiting the Tennessee Valley!
CHECK OUT THE STORM TRACK 9 ZOOM RADAR
Before you head outdoors this weekend, be sure to check out the StormTrack 9 Zoom radar. You can track rain, storms & temperatures right to your neighborhood. Click Here for the Zoom Radar
T-SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING
A slow moving upper level low will approach the Tennessee Valley Friday providing higher humidity, more clouds and eventually more scattered t-showers. The coverage of showers and some thunderstorms increases especially into the heating of the day on Friday. So, most numerous during the afternoon and evening hours. While an isolated storm or two could be strong, the risk of widespread severe weather remains low.
Unlike a summer pattern when showers typically fade out at night, scattered t-showers will remain a possibility through Friday night. Again, mainly on a scattered basis. So, not everywhere at the same time.
The upper level low will continue to slowly move through the viewing area Saturday. This means periodic showers and t-storms. There is just no way of being able to specify exactly when and where each t-showers will occur. So, as you plan outdoor activities for Saturday, be aware that all areas locally have an equal chance of periodic showers/storms at any given time. Otherwise, when showers are not occurring, skies will be cloudy with afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80.
A few strong thunderstorms are possible Saturday, but again the chance of widespread severe storms remains low. Right now the main threat looks like, heavy downpours, wind gusts and occasional lightning. As always you can depend on us for updates. Rainfall amounts Friday through early Sunday could average up to 1". But, due to the scattered nature of storms, some areas could have more while others less. The moisture rich air could allow for some thunderstorm to produce heavier downpours of 1"-2".
By Sunday, the upper level low is projected to continue moving east which could start to reduce the periods of showers and storms. The chance could be higher if the "low" stalls. So, we will be closely watching this pattern and continue to provide updates. If the low does move east, then more sun is possible Sunday and fewer t-showers.
HEATING UP NEXT WEEK
This summer-like pattern should continue into next week. Afternoon highs could reach the upper 80s and even as high as "90" in spots on Monday and Tuesday. Each day runs a slight chance of pop up afternoon t-showers, but a better chance possible Wednesday.
As always, you can depend on us for updates!
David Glenn
A Summer Like Pattern
05/14/13
May has been cooler than average locally so far, but a taste of summer heat settles in over the next few days.
MAY 2013 BELOW AVERAGE SO FAR
No surprise to anyone that the first half of May has had temperatures below average levels. The average temperature so far is 62 degrees which is 4.2 degrees below average. The average temperature for the month should rise quite a bit in the days ahead as above average warmth settles in.
SUMMER LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING
The huge warm up started Tuesday as afternoon temperatures approached the 80 degree mark. But, by Wednesday, the heat continues to build with mid 80s possible at most valley locations and near 80 on the mountain tops. Afternoon temperatures should average in the mid 80s through the end of the week and into the weekend. But, some upper 80s will be possible as well.
The humidity levels will also start to rise starting Wednesday. And, like a summer pattern, this could lead to some pop up afternoon and evening t-showers, especially by Thursday. A similar pattern Friday as a small disturbance rolls through the Tennessee Valley. This could mean more cloud cover and some pop up t-showers from time to time. However, unlike the wet patterns lately, this will not be all that widespread.
SIMILAR WEEKEND PATTERN
A better chance of scattered t-showers could linger from Friday and into Saturday. Though it does not appear to be an all day variety of rain, be aware that some t-showers popping up could delay an outdoor activity, otherwise partly cloudy and near 80 Saturday. A little more sun and few afternoon t-showers Sunday with highs back in the mid 80s.
David Glenn
Mother's Day Weekend Outlook
05/10/13
The Mother's Day weekend should not be anything like last weekend. Some scattered showers are possible Saturday, but Sunday looks cooler and drier.
SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY
A slow moving cool front should keeps skies cloudy over the Tennessee Valley Saturday. Some scattered showers and even a t-shower will result. But, unlike last weekend, this does not appear to be an all day wash out. Instead, mainly scattered in nature. Otherwise, expect a cloudy sky and breezy at times with low 70s through the afternoon. While some t-showers are possible, the risk of severe weather remains very low. Widespread heavy rain is not expected.
Click Here for the StormTrack 9 Zoom Radar
By Saturday night, most showers that remain should taper off. Also, a little cooler with an overnight low in the low 50s as a northwest breeze ushers in some drier and cooler air.
BREEZY & COOLER MOTHER'S DAY
Sunday, Mother's Day, should begin cloudy and even some sprinkles leftover in spots. However, skies should become partly sunny through midday and the afternoon. A brisk northwest wind at 10-20mph will help hold afternoon temperatures in the 60s.
A BIT CHILLY MONDAY & TUESDAY MORNING
This latest round of cooler and drier air should provide the local viewing area with some chilly mornings. Expect lows in the low 40s Monday morning which could mean even some upper 30s in the usual colder local spots. Some isolated patchy frost in those spots as well. Same conditions again for Tuesday morning.
A DRY START TO THE WEEK
Even though the morning's will be chilly, the afternoons should be sunny and warm. Upper 60s to near 70 Monday, then back to the upper 70s Tuesday. The warming trend continues through the week with low 80s Wednesday and Thursday with morning temperatures in the 50s.
A few late day t-showers are possible both Thursday and Friday, but otherwise a mix of sun and clouds both days with highs in the low 80s.
As usual, you can depend on us for updates!
David Glenn
Better Shower Chances By Friday, But A Longer Dry Spell Could Be On The Way
05/08/13
Some isolated t-showers have dotted the radar screen the past few days, but a better coverage returns for Friday and Saturday. However, a longer period of dry weather could be on the horizon.
WARMER THURSDAY
Thursday looks warmer under a partly sunny sky. Afternoon highs should reach the low 80s at most valley locations (70s mountains). Like the past few afternoons, there is a slight chance for a few pop up showers through the early evening.
BETTER T-SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY & SATURDAY
A storm system approaches the Tennessee Valley from the west on Friday. This means more cloud cover for Friday along with an increasing coverage of showers and t-showers, especially through the afternoon. Some thunder, but the overall risk of severe weather remains low with this system. Afternoon temperatures should reach the mid/upper 70s on Friday.
The shower chances continue for Saturday on an "off and on" basis. This should not be like last Saturday. Rainfall amounts Friday into Saturday could average between 0.75"- 1.15" across the local viewing area. So, not as heavy as last weekend. Afternoon temperatures on Saturday in the low 70s. The coverage of showers and t-showers appears to slack off through Saturday night and early Sunday morning.
DRIER & COOLER MOTHER'S DAY
It looks like we could salvage at least one half of the weekend on Sunday. Forecast models project the storm system to move east of the Tennessee Valley by early Sunday. So, morning clouds could give way to a partly sunny sky by afternoon. Cooler air moves in as well with afternoon temperatures mostly in the 60s and temperatures Sunday night dipping into the low 40s.
COOLER START TO NEXT WEEK, BUT DRY FOR A WHILE.....FINALLY!
Mornings could again be a bit chilly early next week with low 40s Monday and Tuesday morning. A few of the usual cold spots around the Tennessee Valley could dip briefly into the upper 30s. But, it should be dry. 60s for highs Monday, then 70s Tuesday and near 80 by Wednesday. The dry pattern could stick around all the way through Friday of next week!
As always, you can depend on us for updates!
David Glenn
Flooding Concerns For The Weekend
05/03/13
Continuous periods of rain through the weekend could lead to flooding problems around the Tennessee Valley
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
The "upper low" moving across the Southeast is a slow mover almost cut off from the upper level wind flow. This system should set up an alley way of rainfall stretching from the Gulf and right through the Tennessee Valley. The continuous nature of the rain could lead to some impressive rainfall totals for Saturday through Monday. The threat of severe storms remains low,so the main concern is the risk of flooding.
Temperatures will also be quite cool with daytime temperatures only in the upper 50s to near 60 both Saturday and Sunday with morning lows in the upper 40s to near 50.
Be sure to use our StormTrack 9 Zoom Radar to track the rain and temperatures in your neighborhood.
COMPUTER MODEL FORECASTS
Here is a look at some of the local rainfall totals from the various computer forecast models from Saturday morning through Monday evening.
GFS (US) Model: 2.50"
NAM (US) Model: 3.68"
ECMWF (European) Model: 3.75"-4.00"
WTVC Microcast Model: 3.56"
This places the average amount between 3"-5", but as is always the case in heavy rainfall events, there could be some isolated spots with higher amounts.
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT
No surprise that a Flood Watch is in effect for our entire viewing area through Monday morning. This "Watch" could be elevated to a "Warning" at some point during the weekend. As always, you can depend on StormTrack 9 for updates.
Please remember this flooding safety rhyme..."Turn around, don't drown". When approaching a flooded area, please do not try to cross the rising waters. It takes only 6 inches of moving water to sweep a person off their feet. It takes only 12 inches of moving water to move an automobile. In other words, the tires don't even have to be fully submerged for a car to be pushed by raging flood waters.
DRIER & WARMER NEXT WEEK
The slow moving upper low should push away by early next week bringing an end to the rain by late Monday. Drier and warmer conditions should return for Tuesday through Thursday. Afternoon highs should return to the 70s with morning lows in the 50s.
As always, you can depend on us for updates!
David Glenn
Rain Chances On The Horizon
05/01/13
Clouds returned as we kicked off the month of May. Eventually, the clouds will yield some raindrops.
APRIL 2013 LOCAL WEATHER STATS
No surprise at all that April 2013 was wetter than average in Chattanooga. The total rainfall at Lovell Field was 9.09" which was 5.10" above average. The wettest day was the 28th with 1.87" of rain. Temperatures averaged out to be "normal" with the average temperature of 60.5 degrees. The warmest day was on the 17th with 85 degrees. The coldest morning was 3 days later on the 20th with 37 degrees. Since the hot July of 2012, 7 of the past 9 months have had at or below average temperatures.
WARM THROUGH FRIDAY
Cloud cover should not stop seasonal temperatures. Daily highs should still average in the mid 70s Thursday and Friday even with the lack of sun. Morning lows in the upper 50s. Cooler air moves in for the weekend with daytime temperatures falling back to the 60s.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
Rain chances will only slowly creep upward through Friday, then possibly increase quite a bit into Saturday. On Thursday, there is a slight chance for a passing shower because of a moist southeast wind flow. Otherwise, expect a cloudy sky with a high in the mid 70s. By Friday, an upper level "low" and associated cold front will move closer to the Tennessee Valley from the west. This could increase our local rain chances gradually by late Friday and into Friday night.
Due to the slow movement of the "upper low", rain chances could increase and linger for Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures should also cool quite a bit with mornings in the low 50s and afternoons possibly only low 60s Saturday and mid/upper 60s Sunday.
Forecast model data is starting to indicate that some heavy downpours could occur at times late Saturday and into Saturday night. The GFS model is most robust with over 2" indicated, but the European Model (ECMWF) is not quite as heavy with around 1.3". Either way, a solid area of rain possible. And, with the already saturated ground, some flooding issues could again be a concern over the weekend.
Forecast models could change a bit in the days ahead and that could change both the timing and amount of rain locally. It's all due to the slow movement of the system. As always, you can depend on us for updates!
David Glenn
Anniversary of the April 27th, 2011 Tornado Outbreak
04/25/13
2nd Anniversary of the April 27th, 2011 Tornado Outbreak
On the night of April 26th, 2011, I was having dinner with my family. My wife knew that I had been concerned for days about the upcoming weather pattern for the next day. She asked me, "what does your gut tell you?". I told her, "it's the same as I felt the day before Hurricane Katrina.....this system could be very bad". She knew I was serious. When I worked in Mobile, AL, she and my sons had to evacuate north 3 times in one year due to the strong hurricanes of 2004-2005. Hurricane Katrina being the worst. She knew that we could not really evacuate for something like this. So, we spent the length of our dinner discussing the safety plan for our house and made sure my sons were clear on what to do. Likewise, the bulk of my broadcast time that Tuesday night was spent urging viewers to do the same. Be Prepared and Stay Alert!
Meteorologists can get a gauge of the "potential" energy within a developing storm system by looking at various computer model indices. One such equation or index is called the SWEAT index which stands for "Severe Weather Threat" index. It takes into account the stability of the atmosphere and the wind profile. A SWEAT index of over 400 means that supercell storms are likely with some that could produce strong tornadoes. The projected SWEAT index for April 27th was 527! I had never seen this before. Two different computer model runs on April 26th yielded totals above 500. I then emailed my boss, Tom Henderson, to give him a brief on my thoughts for the next day. I told him exactly what I told my wife..."I have never seen anything like this before locally and it could be very bad". I closed the email with this quote..."I hope I am wrong". If there was ever a forecast when I wanted to be wrong, it was this one.
The next day saw our weather team stay on the air continuously for nearly 18 hours. Only having a short 15 minute break after 1pm. Bill Race had done a tremendous job during the morning hours. It was like watching an aerial assault unfold. A literal conveyor belt of supercells constantly moving in from the southwest. I cannot tell you how many times we said "hunker down" or "get to your safe place"....for you can never say it enough in this type of situation. Jason Disharoon and I spent those long hours analyzing those storms right down to street level to be as detailed as possible on what areas could be affected. Often times there would be several warnings in effect at the same time. Our newsroom staff likewise worked the same long hours gathering information from across the viewing area. Some out in the elements covering the damage as storms continued to move through.
At 6pm I sent a text to my wife urging her to get to the basement as yet another supercell was sprinting toward downtown Chattanooga and our house on Missionary Ridge. I received a reply from her stating..."OK, we are in the basement". 30 minutes later, Tom Henderson motioned for me to step off camera and for Jason to take over. Tom told me that he had just received a phone call from my neighbor that a tree had struck our house. I knew immediately which tree it was. It was the huge oak tree in my neighbor's yard that had a natural lean toward my house. I immediately called my wife and with each ring I kept saying "pick up...pick up...pick up". She finally answered in a chipper voice and said "hey". I said, "are you all ok?". She assured me that they were fine, but she knew nothing about the tree. They had heard nothing. I asked her to take a look upstairs and upon getting there she confirmed that the tree had indeed sideswiped the house puncturing the roof. She said that the house was still fine, but leaking. I wanted to go home and check on them, but she told me that they would be okay and to keep broadcasting. It was a brief sense of relief, because I knew that the storms continued to rage and lives were at risk.
It was truly painful watching these monster storms roll over our local communities. We kept pleading for folks to get to safety and take these warnings seriously. With each passing storm we were getting the dreadful news of damage and injuries. And, it only escalated through the night. The last Tornado Warning expired shortly after midnight. We then broadcasted our normal 11pm newscast at that time. I sat at the news desk with Kim and Calvin. We rolled on some raw video of the damage in Ringgold. They both asked me my thoughts. I simply could not speak. Emotionally drained and tears welling up, there were just no words. Taking a deep breath and gaining my composure I had to get right back to the task of discussing the current radar trends and detailing when all the storms would end.
Our marathon storm coverage ended after 1am. Time was still spent updating our web site and making sure every square mile of our viewing area was out of danger. I was finally able to go home around 2am. It was a silent drive home with periods of trembling lips and tears. I arrived home to a dark house because of no power. Everyone was asleep in the den so as to stay together. I just sat there in the dark watching them all sleep. For as thankful as I was for their safety, I felt guilty. I knew that many others were not as fortunate. I never slept.
People often ask me what it was like during those long hours of broadcasting that day. It's a question that is very hard to answer. Yes, the hours were long and it seemed the storms would never end. It was an emotionally stressful day as you can imagine as we all felt that way. It was challenging because so many people were losing power, so we had to explore every avenue possible for people to receive storm warnings (via radio & smart phone). But, in the end, it was sad. One of the saddest days of my life. You have probably heard the term "heavy heart". Mine felt like an anvil. People in my hometown area had suffered a devastating blow. Some lost their homes, while other lost their lives.
From time to time people will tell me that what we did April 27th saved lives. While I appreciate those comments I am still reminded of those that did not survive. How can our coverage be better? That is a question I challenge myself with constantly. For as much technology we have available, we can still be better. One of the most important ways is making sure people are receiving storm warnings. As I mentioned earlier, the massive loss of electrical power on April 27th was limiting how some people were receiving warnings. Without a TV, cell phone or radio, some were left without a source of information. Storm sirens are scarce locally and should only be used as last resort. Having a NOAA weather alert radio is something I have highly recommended for years. Just days after the tornado outbreak the StormTrack 9 Team began a campaign of traveling to communities across the Tennessee Valley promoting the use of these potential life saving radios. Thanks to a partnership with Midland & Walgreens, we have placed thousands of new weather alert radios in homes locally. A portion of the proceeds has also gone to local charities for tornado relief. And, one year later, our campaign continues. As I tell everyone, we cannot control the weather, but we can control how we react to severe weather and being better prepared. We will continue those efforts in the weeks and months ahead. It has helped me with the healing process.
Two years later, we will still never forget. I will never forget seeing the damage first hand as we toured the area. I will also never forget the resilient spirit of my fellow hometown friends and neighbors. Those who came armed with chainsaws and volunteered countless hours to clear trees. Those who cooked hundreds of meals. Those who helped rebuild. On April 27th, we witnessed the worst in weather. On April 28th, we saw the best in humanity. And we still do today.
David Glenn
Showers For Wednesday and Possibly Again By The Weekend
04/23/13
Clouds and showers return for Wednesday and it still looks like the upcoming weekend could be wet.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY
A fast moving system will move north of the Tennessee Valley, but drag a cold front through the viewing area. This should produce scattered showers gradually during the morning hours, then more numerous during the afternoon. A few thunderstorms are possible, but the risk of severe storms remains very low. Projected rainfall amounts do not appear to be that heavy show an average of 0.25"-0.35".
Showers should end Wednesday evening followed by drier and much cooler air Wednesday night as temperatures dip into the lower 40s by early Thursday morning.
DRY & SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY/FRIDAY
After that cool start to Thursday, expect a lot of sunshine and a steady breeze from the north. This should hold high temperatures in the upper 60s (low/mid 60s mountains). Cool again Thursday night with low 40s. Friday should be sunny to begin with followed by increasing clouds with afternoon temperatures eventually warming into the lower 70s. Cloudy Friday night and a few showers could creep in from the west before sunrise Saturday.
A WET WEEKEND POSSIBLE
It still looks as if the upcoming weekend could be soggy. A slow moving system should develop over the lower Mississippi Valley and drift west. This could increase the coverage of rain and a few thunderstorms across the viewing area Saturday and into Sunday. Early rainfall projections point to amounts that could exceed an inch. And, if the system slows down we could have some periods of heavy downpours. Some thunderstorms could occur as well. Right now, the severe risk remains low and we will continue to keep an eye on that in the days ahead.
David Glenn
A Dry, But Cool Weekend
04/19/13
A chilly start to the weekend, but we should have plenty of sunshine!
PATCHY FROST SATURDAY MORNING
The "average" date for the last frost in Chattanooga is April 14th. So, we are not too far away from that date. So, while the frost threat is late season, it's not all that unusual. Temperatures by Saturday morning could dip into the mid/upper 30s. That, along with a lighter breeze could allow for the formation of frost in some areas. So, please be sure to protect your plants from the early morning chill. It should not be as cold Sunday morning with lows near 40 and fewer areas at risk for frost.
SUNNY SATURDAY
After the "frosty" start, expect a lot of sunshine. Temperatures by afternoon should reach the mid 60s (upper 50s mountains). A steady breeze from the north at 5-10mph during the morning, then 10-15mph by afternoon. Skies should remain clear Saturday night with low temperatures dipping to near 40 (some upper 30s north).
A LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY
Clouds should begin to mix in with the sky cover Sunday. So, more of a partly sunny day. Temperatures will still be below average but eventually reach the upper 60s to near 70 valley (60s mountains). Partly cloudy with low 40s Sunday Night.
NEXT ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY
A mix of clouds and sun for both Monday and Tuesday with afternoon temperatures back in the low 70s. Only very small rain chances either day. The next best chance for showers and storms could be very late Tuesday night and into Wednesday. This could be followed by another cooling trend for Thursday and Friday.
David Glenn
Warm & Breezy Thursday With Storms Returning Early Friday
04/17/13
Temperatures should soar back in the 80s Thursday along with breezy conditions. A line of showers and possibly strong storms rolls in very late Thursday night and into Friday morning.
80s & WINDY AT TIMES THURSDAY
The Tennessee Valley will be in what is known as the "warm sector" Thursday in advance of a slow moving cold front. Most of the day should be partly sunny and quite warm with temperatures reaching the low/mid 80s. The southerly wind will be increasing quite a bit with speeds from 15-20mph and gusty at times during the afternoon. Thunderstorm chances during the afternoon remain quite low and should not be as active as Wednesday. That chance should hold off until later Thursday night and into Friday morning.
LINE OF STORMS EARLY FRIDAY
The slow moving cold front should eventually push a line of showers and strong storms into the Tennessee Valley during the predawn hours of Friday and through the hours after sunrise. Typically with a squall line type of event, the main severe factor is the risk for damaging wind gusts. While the tornado threat looks low locally, we will continue to keep an eye on that. Heavy rain and strong wind gusts will be possible during the first half of the day as these storms move through. As always, you can depend on us for updates through Friday morning.
TURNING MUCH COOLER
After several days of above normal temperatures in the 80s, much cooler air returns starting Friday afternoon. Once the front passes, temperatures should gradually fall from the 60s to the 50s Friday afternoon along with a WNW breeze. Skies should slowly clear Friday as temperatures tumble into the low 40s (Dogwood Winter Part II). Saturday looks sunny, but high temperatures should be held back in the mid 60s. 40s again for Sunday morning, but sunshine through the afternoon with highs nearing 70 (60s mountains).
David Glenn
Warm & Humid Pattern This Week
04/15/13
An almost "summer-like" pattern the next few afternoons as a warm, humid pattern settles in across the Tennessee Valley.
80S MOST AFTERNOONS
The normal daily high temperature in Chattanooga for this week is in the lower 70s. But, we should have an average daily high from 80-82 Tuesday through Thursday. Morning lows should also be above average in the low 60s and some light fog each morning.
T-STORMS POPPING UP
With this pattern, there will be the possibility of scattered showers and storms popping up each afternoon and evening. This chance remains in the scattered category through Thursday. But, the Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the Tennessee Valley in the "Slight Risk" category for the possibility of severe storms on Tuesday. A similar pattern for Wednesday and Thursday with mainly scattered afternoon & evening storms, but otherwise a mix of sun and clouds.
BETTER STORM CHANCE FRIDAY WITH COLD FRONT
A slow moving cold front could provide the Tennessee Valley with a better chance and coverage of showers and thunderstorms Friday. Depending upon the speed of the front, the shower/storm chances could increase as early as the predawn hours of Friday and then continue into the afternoon. With this type of setup, the chance exists for the possibility that a few storms could be severe. We will continue to keep an eye on this during the days ahead.
Behind the cold front will be another round of much cooler air - Dogwood Winter conditions for the weekend. The weekend looks dry with afternoon highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.
As always, you can depend on us for updates!
David Glenn
A Warm & Breezy Pattern....Severe Storms Possible Thursday
04/08/13
After a cold March and a cool start to April, temperatures are finally warming into the 80s. But, this could be followed by a chance of severe storms Thursday.
WARM & BREEZY
Tuesday and Wednesday should both be warm and breezy as the steady south wind continues to warm the Tennessee Valley. Cloud cover from time to time with some peeks of sunshine. High temperatures Tuesday should reach near 80 (70s mountains) and low 80s Wednesday (70s mountains). The breeze from the south should be between 10-20mph each afternoon.
While no organized chance for rain is expected through Wednesday, an isolated shower cannot be ruled out.
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
It is April and this is usually a busy period for the Tennessee Valley in regards to the chance of severe storms. A slow moving storm system could give our region the chance for some strong to severe storms Thursday. The timing is still a bit uncertain as there are still some timing differences between the GFS/NAM/ECMWF models. The GFS is quicker and the ECMWF is slower. So, right now, the chance of strong to severe storms exists during the Thursday and possibly into early Friday. The GFS model ends the threat by Thursday evening, while the ECMWF prolongs the threat into Friday morning.
Now, this system does not look like April 27th. But, you should never let down your guard. All it takes is ONE storm. Right now it appears the greater threat locally could be from damaging straight line wind within a line of thunderstorms. But, we always need to be aware of the storm system setup to be watchful for any tornado threat. It appears the greater threat for that could be over Arkansas and Mississippi, especially Wednesday.
As always, you can depend on us to keep you updated in the days ahead.
David
Super Outbreak of 1974 Anniversary
04/04/13
39 years ago, the worst tornado outbreak of the 20th century struck the Southeastern and Midwestern United States on April 3-4, 1974, bringing 148 tornadoes in 18 hours across the region. Believe it or not, that's not the most astonishing fact from that outbreak. That honor goes to the 30 F4 and F5 tornadoes (classified violent tornadoes) that occured. The national average is 7 per year.
A powerful low pressure system developed across the Great Plains on April 1, 1974. While moving into the Mississippi and Ohio Valley areas, a surge of very moist air intensified the storm further with a very sharp temperature contrast between both sides of the system. By the early afternoon of April 3, severe weather watches and warnings were already in place and while tornadic activity hadn't began, several severe storms with baseball-sized hail pounded Missouri and Illinois.
Just a few hours later, supercells developed quickly and spread over Illinois while another group fromed near the Southern Appalachians in Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee. As the day continued, the activity spread farther to the south with the Ohio River Valley becoming the hardest hit before the system spread into the Cumberland Plateau. Out of all states affected, Tennessee had the most tornadoes from this outbreak with 36.
Many comparissons have been made between that outbreak and the one that struck our area April 27, 2011. That outbreak was part of a larger-scale system that swept across the Eastern US April 25-28, 2011. With 358 confirmed tornadoes, it is the largest tornado outbreak in the nation's history. Of those 358, only 15 were classified as violent tornadoes (EF4 and EF5. The F-scale was replaced with the EF-scale in February 2007). This is only half the number of violent tornadoes from the Super Outbreak of '74. But while there was a smaller number of violent tornadoes in the 2011 outbreak, it doesn't necessarily mean that the even was less significant. By taking into account the path lengths of all violent tornadoes combined per event, the results are much closer. The 1974 Outbreak still remains ahead, but not by much. The total path length in 2011 was 1469 miles compared to 1755 miles in 1974.
While we are coming into what is traditionally the peak of severe weather season; keep in mind these events are almost once in a lifetime events for a region. It is still always a good idea to have your severe weather plan in place before the event.
Make sure you know the difference between a watch and a warning (a watch means conditions are favorable for an event; a warning means either a person or radar has indicated a severe thunderstorm or tornado is actually occuring. Watches tended to be for very large areas and can include several states. Warnings tend to be much smaller and cover only a few counties).
Have a place planned to go in the event of a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning. Have your disaster supply kit stocked and ready to go. Remember, you'll need 1 gallon of water per person per day and it's a good idea to have at least three days supply ready to go with plenty of non-perishable food items. Keep in mind if the power goes out, you'll want to have a hand-operated can opener as well.
Most importantly though, make sure you have a way to receive weather watches and warnings in a timely manner. We highly recommend a weather radio. Day or night, with or without power to your home, these radios are designed to give you the most advanced warning time so you can get to your safe place with more time to spare before the storm arrives.
Another Cool Week Ahead but 70s are In Sight!
04/02/13
With the exception of this past Monday, temperatures for the past 10 days or so have been well below average and it appears that trend will carry us through the end of the week. Average highs this time of the year are just shy of the 70 degree mark with the morning average in the middle 40s.
We started last week off with temperatures in the 30s for highs and scattered snow showers around the area. Not what we'd expect for the first few days of spring. Overnights saw 20s and wind chill values in the teens. While we slowly warmed things up, by the end of the week, temperatures were still struggling to get out of the 50s. Over all, we had 12 straight days with below average temperatures.
This week, we appeared to change things around with Mondays high and low being right on track for the average. We topped out at 69 and it was gorgeous, but it didn't last. Highs today barely touched the 60s and tomorrow is only slightly warmer before another rain system pushes in and drops our high temperatures back into the 50s. But there is relief in sight!!
After the cold front passes through Friday, a strong area of high pressure will build in and allow plenty of sunshine and high temperatures back in the 70s for the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday are looking absolutely gorgeous!! And unlike Monday, it looks like these temperatures will stick around for a while. Early next week, 70s will stick around but clouds will slowly start to move back in. It appears a cold front trying to push in will stall out to our north. While we will be close enough for a few showers to pass on through, partly cloudy skies and 70s will remain.
It looks like we've finally turned a corner with Spring-like weather and this next batch of temperatures in the 70s should stick around longer. (Jason Disharoon)
Weekend Outlook & Another Cool Snap Next Week
03/29/13
A warmer pattern heading into Easter Sunday and especially Monday, but another cool snap moves in by Tuesday.
DO YOU REMEMBER MARCH 29, 1997?
During the early morning hours that date (middle of the night), a strong F3 tornado struck parts of Hamilton and Bradley Co. This caused heavy damage around Hamilton Place and East Brainerd. Apison, Lookout Valley and other spots had damage as well. Overall 94 people were injured along with $48 million in damage. I remember that storm well. My wife and I had just been to Hamilton Place a few hours earlier to have our two sons picture made with the Easter Bunny. I Spent many hours covering the damage in the days that followed.
WEEKEND SHOWER CHANCES
Saturday still does not appear to be an all day wash out. With a lot of egg hunts planned, I know there are some anxious kids and parents keeping an eye on the forecast. Saturday could begin gloomy with some showers around very early. Shower chances the remainder of the day remain in the slight category as we will be in between systems. There could be some sun peeking through the clouds at times as well. Temperatures should warm into the upper 60s. By late afternoon and evening, a better chance of showers and t-showers should begin to move back in. Before heading outside Saturday, please be sure and check out the StormTrack 9 Zoom Radar
The better chance for showers and t-showers should occur Saturday night and through the first half of Easter Sunday. Sunrise on Sunday is at 7:29amET and temperatures should be in the mid 50s. If you will be attending any outdoor sunrise services you will need a jacket and keep an umbrella handy. It looks like the better chance for showers and t-showers should end after midday and into the afternoon. Temperatures should still be warm and reach the upper 60s.
70's AT LEAST FOR A DAY!
Monday should be very warm as once again we will be in between systems. A southwesterly wind flow and a mix of clouds and sun should allow temperatures to reach the low to possibly mid 70s by afternoon. However, a cold front approaches late day and should usher in some showers and storms by late day and into Monday night.
MUCH COOLER TUESDAY
Once the cold front passes by, temperatures should rapidly cool off yet again. But, this cool spell should not be as chilly as what we had earlier this week. Any showers should end early Tuesday morning. It should be windy at times with a brisk northwest wind and afternoon temperatures only in the mid 50s. Temperatures by Tuesday night and Wednesday morning could be frosty with lows in the mid 30s. 60s return for late week and mostly dry until Friday.
TAKING A VACATION
My wife and kids are on Spring Break for next week. So, likewise, I will be off with them. We are taking one of those Stay-cations, so I'm sure I will see some of you out and about around town. Stop by and say hello! See you on the air next Monday (April 8th).
David Glenn
March 2012 Vs March 2013
03/27/13
What a difference a year makes! March is always a month typified by ups and downs in weather patterns. And, comparing the past two March stats, it's quite different.
March 2012 was the warmest March on record in Chattanooga with an average temperature of 62.9 degrees. The average temperature is an average of the high and low from each day. March 2012 had 10 days that were 80 or above with the warmest day on the 15th with 86 degrees. There was only one morning when temperatures were below freezing and that occurred on the 6th with a low of 30. March 2012 was also a wet month with total rainfall of 5.40" which was 0.42" above average.
March 2013 has been a complete 180 in terms of temperature. The average temperature so far has only been 46.5 degrees. There have been no days above 80 with the warmest day on the 16th with 77 degrees. There have been 6 mornings below freezing with the coldest on the 21st with 26 degrees. It has been slightly drier than average with total rainfall of 3.80" which is 0.50" below average.
March 2013 will be the second month in a row of below average temperatures. The all time coldest March was in 1960 with an average temperature of 39 degrees.
David Glenn
Milder Afternoons Ahead, But Another Chill Possible Next Week
03/26/13
Milder temperatures can be expected the next few afternoons and into the weekend. However, another blast of cold air could move our way for next week.
IS THIS THE LATEST WE HAVE HAD SNOW?
Hardly...That question has been asked a lot lately. We have had several occurrences of snowflakes in April through the years. The most significant was on April 3, 1987 when 3"-5" of snow fell across the viewing area.
WINTER PATTERN EASING, BUT COULD RELOAD
I am reminded of the email I received in January from a lot of folks proclaiming that winter was over. But, as we mentioned when groundhog day rolled around, the overall pattern was about to change. In early February signs of the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation values were going negative. This is why we kept urging that even though the season had been mild to that point that more chills could be on the way. These patterns tend to average in 45-60 day cycles. It has reached its apex in March which again was correctly forecasted by us in late February that March would be a colder than average month. February and March combined have exhibited below normal temperatures and near normal precipitation. That fit our original winter forecast, but it took the pattern a while to show up. The overall theme of our winter forecast was that this winter would not be like last winter. Again, it took a while, but winter flexed its muscle and 2013 has indeed been different from 2012.
This pattern may be easing through the end of this week, but could reload yet again next week with another cold shot. 50s should return for the next few afternoons, then near 60 by Friday. Both afternoons this weekend should be in the low/mid 60s, but accompanied by a good chance of showers and t-showers. By early next week a cold front moves through which could drop our afternoon temperatures back to the 40s and 50s. So, don't put away the coats just yet.
WEEKEND SHOWER CHANCES
We should see a gradual increase in shower activity through the weekend. On Saturday, it appears more of an on again, off again chance. So, some of the egg hunts could still proceed, but be aware that some showers could interrupt at times. As mentioned above, temperatures should reach the 60s both Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Shower chances and even some t-storms should increase in coverage Saturday night and into Easter Sunday. Sunrise Easter Sunday is at 7:29amET.
The showers and t-showers should linger into Monday. Model data indicates that rainfall could be heavy at times during the weekend with possibly 1"-2". Of course that could change in the days ahead and we will continue to keep an eye on this. Another cold front could approach the Tennessee Valley Tuesday resulting in another chance for showers and storms. This could be followed by the shot of cold air mentioned above for Wednesday.
As always, you can depend on us for updates!
David
Weekend Outlook & A Cold Start To Next Week
03/22/13
Off & on scattered showers possible through the weekend. Much colder air moves in yet again for early next week.
SATURDAY SHOWERS
Most of Saturday should be cloudy. And, there should be periods of time when rain is not occurring which should allow for some outdoor activities. But, keep our StormTrack 9 Zoom Radar bookmarked and check it before you head out. The latest model data showed a better chance for showers during the morning followed by a break into the afternoon. Temperatures should be a little milder but still below normal in the mid 50s. So, the jackets will still be needed, and at times an umbrella!
It looks like the coverage of showers and storms should increase through Saturday night as an area of low pressure lifts north from the Gulf of Mexico. So, through the night, expect that coverage to increase.
SHOWERS & EVEN SOME T-STORMS SUNDAY
As the area of low pressure lift north through Sunday morning, the coverage of showers locally should remain high. Some thunderstorms are also possible. We'll have to keep an eye on the chance for any severe storms. Right now it looks like the better instability will be well to our south. But, that of course could change. Also, local wind speeds picking up from the southwest as that low pressure moves by.
Showers should slowly taper through the afternoon as a cold front moves through. Temperatures could reach the low 60s for a while with the aid of the southwest wind. However, with the late day wind shift, colder air begins to move back in Sunday night and into Monday.
ANOTHER COLD SHOT ON THE WAY
Temperatures should be colder than normal yet again as we head into next week. An persistent northwesterly flow aloft will keep temperatures below seasonal levels. Some "wrap around" moisture could still exist across the region behind that low pressure system. This could result in some flurries or even some light snow showers in those typically favored areas locally (higher elevations). Any amounts should remain light though through Monday morning. A better chance of meaningful accumulation in the higher terrain of the Smokies and Blue Ridge Mtns.
High temperatures Monday should stay in the 40s and the wind will make it feel colder. Morning lows should hover near the freezing mark Tuesday through Thursday morning. Still breezy Tuesday with low 50s by afternoon, then mid to upper 50s and dry through Thursday. 60s should be area wide by late week, but a chance for showers could follow for Friday.
David Glenn
Winter's Chill Hangs On
03/20/13
A colder than normal pattern should continue through the end of the work week and again into next week. So, Spring is still on hold!
WINDY AND COLDER THURSDAY
A windy and cold pattern takes over for Thursday which should make it feel more like January than Spring. Some morning sun, then clouds moving back in during the afternoon. Windy and cold throughout the day with high temperatures only reaching the mid 40s (near 40 mountains) and a northwest wind at 10-20mph. Wind Chill values could stay in the 30s during the afternoon.
A BRIEF WINTRY MIX
Thursday night and Friday should remain cloudy and still cold. The leading edge of some moisture attempts to stream in overnight and through Friday morning. It appears that the best chance of this would be over areas southwest and west of the city. The air should be dry, but any moisture falling through that dry layer both chills and moistens the column of air. This could result in some patchy areas of a light wintry mix in those areas listed above. Sometimes, forecast models don't handle evaporative cooling events well. Any mixing should not last past Friday morning as precipitation remains light and scattered. And, temperatures will be gradually "warming" to the mid/upper 40s through the afternoon. As always, we will keep an eye on this!
WET THROUGH SATURDAY
The coverage of rain Friday will be slow and gradual, so mainly scattered in nature. Otherwise just cloudy. But, the coverage of rain increases through Friday night, Saturday and Saturday night with off an on periods of rain. 40s for Friday night and upper 50s Saturday afternoon. Rainfall amounts could range from .70"-1.00" with lesser amounts south.
By early Sunday morning, it appears that the rain could lift out and provide at least one nice afternoon of the weekend with temperatures in the mid 60s by afternoon.
BREEZY & CHILLY AGAIN NEXT WEEK
The upper level trough that continues to usher in colder than normal air will again provide a chill for next week. Breezy and chilly Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low 50s and morning lows in the low 30s. Even though it will be chilly, the pattern looks dry through midweek.
David Glenn
Gradually Colder Through The Week
03/18/13
The expected severe weather has passed the viewing area, and soon much cooler air should move back in.
GRADUALLY GETTING COLDER
The chill over the next few days won't be sudden, but gradual. Cooler and drier air returns for Tuesday with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s and sunny. Temperatures by Tuesday night should drop to the mid/upper 30s. By Wednesday, the wind picks up from the north-northwest and starts to usher in even colder air. Wednesday's highs should stay in the 50s and the strong breeze should make it feel colder. Spring officially begins Wednesday! By Thursday morning, local temperatures could be in the upper 20s & lower 30s and by afternoon only reach near 50.
This below normal trend of temperatures should stick around for the weekend with highs only near 50 (even some 40s Sunday) and morning lows in the 30s.
NOT JUST COLDER, BUT ALSO WETTER
A late season winter like pattern should keep the Tennessee Valley much cooler and wetter than average. Only a slight chance of sprinkles, flurries for late Wednesday night and early Thursday. Then, an "overrunning" type of rainfall event should set up for Friday and continue into the weekend. The wet pattern of off and on rain should keep temperatures cooler than average through Saturday. Then, as an area of low pressure moves by, the typical "wrap around" effect could bring the chance of some light rain mixed with light snow on Sunday as colder air moves in aloft. Way to soon to speculate on any problems because there is not much model agreement on the path of the system and surface temperatures remaining just above freezing. But, it's worth watching for a late season period of a wintry mix.
As mentioned above, temperatures look to stay above freezing but quite chilly in the 30s and 40s Sunday at the time of that wrap around. So, the first full weekend of Spring could feel more like winter as this colder than average March "marches" on.
As always, more details in the days ahead! Enjoy the sunshine Tuesday!
David Glenn
A Warm Weekend, But Severe Weather Possible Monday
03/15/13
A warm and windy pattern for the last weekend of Winter. Some severe storms could follow for Monday afternoon and evening.
WARM & WINDY AT TIMES SATURDAY
The low 70s that moved in Friday afternoon should continue again for Saturday. A strong breeze from the southwest can be expected at 15-25mph and at times gusty. So, some good kite flying weather! A mix of clouds and sun is possible along with just a small chance for an isolated shower. Through Saturday night a similar pattern, but not as windy with a low in the upper 40s.
MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
The chance for showers Sunday remains in the scattered category. So, nothing of an "all day" sorts. Most of the day should exhibit more clouds than sun and still breezy at times. Afternoon temperatures should reach the low 70s (60s mountains). And, a continued steady breeze from the southwest at 10-15mph. Some isolated to scattered showers possible from time to time, but not everywhere. A slightly better coverage of some showers into Sunday night, but still in the isolated category.
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY
That headline says it all. The first real threat of the season for scattered to numerous strong to severe storms is possible Monday afternoon and evening. A strong low pressure system should move from southwest to northeast across Alabama and middle Tennessee setting up the threat for severe weather. Some of the storms during the afternoon and evening could produce damaging wind gusts and large hail. There also remains the chance for the development of some supercells that can bring about a chance for the possibility of tornadoes. As always, we certainly hope that does not happen, but conditions indicate the possibility and urge you to stay alert about the conditions for Monday.
We will continue to keep an eye on the development of this system. It's a good time to check your weather alert radios to make sure that it has fresh batteries and is programmed correctly. Here is the link to the S.A.M.E. code for your county.
COOLER LONG RANGE
Even though Spring officially begins Wednesday, cooler than average temperatures are still a possibility. Both long range outlooks from the GFS and ECMWF show cooler than average conditions back first off all on Tuesday, but then possibly again late next week and into the following week. So, some mornings in the 30s are still possible. Again, you can always depend on us for updates.
David Glenn
Looking Back At Superstorm '93
03/12/13
March 12th & 13th mark the 20th anniversary of Superstorm '93. The historic snowstorm that dumped nearly 2 ft of snow across the Tennessee Valley.
IT STILL SEEMS LIKE YESTERDAY
My how time flies! It still doesn't seem like 20 years since the Superstorm. But, one look at the grey hair on my head begs to differ! Yes, back then I had brown hair and was about 2 years into my career as a broadcast meteorologist here in Chattanooga. I remember vividly the Monday before the storm seeing some of the longer range computer model outlooks from the LFM & NGM model...(For you forecast model watchers, both models are long gone!). These models were printed out instead of being viewed on a computer screen. The storm being projected 4-5 days out was definitely an eyebrow raiser.
And, as each day progressed, the models did not waiver. In fact, the LFM model was very accurate with this storm. The problem us forecasters had was convincing local residents that a potentially huge storm could impact the Tennessee Valley by the weekend. Why was it hard to convince? Well, through Wednesday of that week, temperatures were in the 70s and everything was budding. But, we could all see this storm coming and knew it was going to be huge.
By Friday, the first "Blizzard Watch" was posted for our viewing area in northwest Georgia. While I had no problem at all broadcasting this "Watch", it was the first time most local folks had heard that locally. The first flakes began to fall Friday afternoon (12th) and schools began to close early. At first, the flakes melted on impact. We continued to stress that the worst was still to come later. By later that Friday evening, the periods of snow increased and it no longer melted. Temperatures dropped through the night and the wind howled. No seriously...it howled! Wind gusts in the 40mph to 50mph range gripped the region along with heavy snow. Near "white out" conditions at times on that Saturday.
During the predawn hours of Saturday (13th), "thundersnow" occurred. Simply a thunderstorm with snow instead of rain. It just added to the dramatics already occurring. The bright green and blue flashes illuminated the snowy landscape and the jarring claps of thunder woke a lot of people from sleep. The snow was no longer just accumulating, it was drifting. After sunrise, a lot of areas had drifts up to 3ft and even higher in other spots.
That Saturday was not a day to play in the snow. It was dangerous! Trees were falling due to the wind gusts and weight of the snow. Wind chill levels were nearing 0. The periods of snow would continue through the early morning hours of the 14th (Sunday). I remember being on the air during the overnight hours of that Saturday night (13th) through the (14th). By that time, the storm was calming down, but reading the snow totals and reporting the current temperatures was incredible. By that time, amounts ranged from 18-23 inches and temperatures at about the same range.
By Sunday, the sunshine was back. It was a little safer to be out taking pictures. Some folks were getting back on the roads. But, many had problems with their cars clearance level and the height of the snowfall accumulation. The local road crews were doing their best to plow some of the major roads. With snow cover, temperatures remained cold and dropped to near 10 degrees that Sunday night.
By Monday (15th), I spent more time on the air taking viewer phone calls trying to get help to those in need. It was a reminder of how paralyzed the local region was due to massive power outages. I remember passing these notes along to the EPB and Red Cross and other organizations. For some, power was restored in just a couple of days. But for others, it took 2-3 weeks.
So many people ask me, "could we see this again?". Well, I have always said that if something has happened before, it could happen again at some point. I still believe that!
Superstorm '93 goes down as a Top 5 weather event that I have covered as a broadcast meteorologist. The other 4 are (in no particular order)....The tornado outbreak of April 27, 2011.....Hurricane Katrina & Ivan during my years on the Gulf Coast.....The Good Friday tornado in East Brainerd in 1997.
David Glenn
A Wet Start To The Week
03/10/13
Showers can be expected as we start the new work week, but after the wet start drier conditions should prevail for the remainder of the week. A bit cooler as well.
SHOWERS & WINDY MONDAY
A slow moving cold front should usher in periods of rain during the day Monday. Rainfall amounts projected by forecast guidance models suggest a range from 0.75" to just over 1". So, not an excessively heavy event, but a decent soaking across the Tennessee Valley. It should also be windy at times as well with a southwest to west wind on average at 15-25mph with higher gusts.
Some thundershowers cannot be ruled out, but the overall risk of severe storms remains very low. Showers should taper off Monday evening, followed by drier and cooler air into Tuesday.
DRIER BUT QUITE COOL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
Dry conditions should return for Tuesday, but an upper level flow from the northwest should keep temperatures quite cool through Thursday. Sunshine returning for Tuesday, with a morning low in the upper 30s and an afternoon high only in the mid 50s. The northwesterly flow strengthens a bit for Wednesday pushing the temperatures just a little bit lower. Highs on Wednesday in the low 50s and a morning low near the freezing mark. Upper 50s and still dry Thursday.
LATE WEEK WARMING TREND
Temperatures should finally return to seasonal averages by Friday as afternoon temperatures get back into the low 60s. This warming trend should continue into the upcoming weekend with mid/upper 60s possible Saturday and upper 60s to near 70 possible Sunday. Still a mostly dry pattern, just more cloud cover each day Saturday and Sunday. As always, we will have updates for the weekend forecast in the days ahead!
MODELS DISAGREE ON LONG RANGE
Really, what else is new in that category, especially beyond 8-9 days out. The GFS model keeps the Southeastern US in a more Spring like pattern of showers into the week of the 18th and temperatures at or just above average. The European model (ECMWF) which historically has a better track record in the long range, projects a late season low pressure system for the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic & Northeast. The ECMWF paints a colder pattern for us the week of the 18th along with some Smokies/Blue Ridge Mtns snow. Transitional months like March will often times have differences like this. So, we just take it one day at a time and see how the pattern evolves in the days ahead.
David Glenn
Weekend Outlook & A Peek At Next Week
03/08/13
Warmer afternoons can be expected through the upcoming weekend. More cloud cover each day, leading to a chance of showers and storms for Monday.
WARMER WEEKEND
The first 7 days of March have exhibited below normal temperatures here in the Tennessee Valley. The average temperature was 39.9 degrees which was 9 degrees below normal. Finally, we begin to reverse that trend through the weekend.
It will still be chilly Saturday morning as temperatures dip into the mid 30s. The rest of Saturday should have a mix of sun and clouds along with a steady breeze from the south-southeast. Temperatures by the afternoon should reach the mid 60s at most valley locations, but around 60 local mountains. It should not be as cold Saturday night with a low in the low 40s. Sunday should be a little warmer through the afternoon, but with more clouds. Expect a gradual increase in cloud cover through the day and breezy with a south wind at 10-20mph. Temperatures by late afternoon should reach the upper 60s (low 60s local mountains).
SHOWERS & STORMS MONDAY
An approaching cold front should produce a wet start to the work week. The good news at this point is that the risk of severe storms remains very low across the region. Scattered showers should move in Monday afternoon and continue through the afternoon and early evening. Forecast guidance models are fairly consistent with projected rainfall amounts ranging around 1", though the NAM model is slightly lower at 0.65". So, a soaking possible but not a heavy rain event. There could be some embedded t-storms, but the risk of severe storms remains low.
DRY & SEASONAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
Drier conditions should move back in by Tuesday. Temperatures should be just a little cooler as afternoon highs ease back to the mid/upper 50s. More sun looks possible for Wednesday through Friday and this should allow afternoon temperatures to return to the 60s with morning lows in the upper 30s. Overall, quite seasonal for this time of year!
David Glenn
Finally....A Warming Trend!
03/06/13
The snow showers came and went. Overall the system did as expected. Now we shift our attention away from the chill and finally discuss a warming trend!
WARMER AFTERNOONS AHEAD
Even though we are expecting a warming trend, please remember that the mornings will still be chilly. In fact, lows both Thursday and Friday morning should be near 30. But, by Thursday afternoon you should begin to feel the warming trend as temperatures should reach the low/mid 50s with sunshine (upper 40s mountains). By Friday, the upswing continues as temperatures should reach near 60 by the afternoon (50s mountains). By Saturday, a sunny to partly sunny sky should yield afternoon temperatures in the mid 60s. More cloud cover Sunday, but still warmer during the afternoon with mid/upper 60s possible.
WET & STORMY START POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEK
A mostly dry pattern should continue through Sunday. As mentioned above, clouds should continue to increase in coverage through Sunday. Monday should begin cloudy as a low pressure system moves closer to the Tennessee Valley from the lower/middle Mississippi Valley. This Spring-like pattern could bring showers back to our viewing area Monday afternoon and even the chance for some thunderstorms. It is still too early to speculate on the severity of any storms, but I will keep you posted in the days ahead.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEK
A warm start to the week with 60s prior to the arrival of showers and storms. There should be a brief cool down Tuesday with highs holding in the 50s. The rest of the week should exhibit temperatures near normal for early to mid March with high temperatures reach back to near 60. The long range European model (ECMWF) shows highs possibly near 70 late next week, but the GFS model show another cooling trend by late next week and the weekend. So, we'll just take it one day at a time!
FEBRUARY 2013 STATS
A few days delayed in posting this! February 2013 was cooler and drier than average as recorded at Lovell Field in Chattanooga. The average temperature was 44.1 degrees which was 0.3 degrees below average. It was much cooler than last February when the average temperature was 48.8 degrees. And, it represented a change in the upper level pattern that was so mild locally for December and January. But, since the start of February through this first week of March, temperatures have been cooler than average. The first week of March has averaged about 9 degrees below average.
While December and January were wetter than average, February was just slightly drier than average with 3.94" (-0.90"). The yearly surplus of rainfall is still just over 3.50". The winter months of Dec-Jan-Feb ended with a seasonal rain surplus of 4.59". This fared well for our winter forecast with the weak El Nino keeping us on pace for rainfall. A good start to the year and hopeful at least a normal trend of rainfall continues for Spring.
David Glenn
Another "Low" Brings Rain & A Brief Shot At Wintry Conditions
03/04/13
A quiet start to the work week will be replaced by a wild swing in temperatures both directions through Wednesday. This will be accompanied by some rain/t-showers and even some snow showers mountains.
RAIN RETURNS TUESDAY
Tuesday should begin cloudy with a rapid increase in rain activity beginning before sunrise then off and on throughout the day. There is a chance for some t-storms Tuesday afternoon as the main energy and instability with this low pressure system moves through. The threat of severe storms remains low and the Storm Prediction Center has no local areas under any outlook. Rainfall amounts could range between 0.30"-0.50" which is the general range indicated by forecast guidance models.
WINDY & COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT....EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS
Behind this low pressure system will be the passage of an upper "low" that will quickly chill our air mass as temperatures go from the 50s early evening down to near 32 by Wednesday morning. The bulk of the moisture moves out during the evening. But, as the cold air moves in, it could serve to squeeze out any available moisture. This, along with a northwesterly "upslope" flow over area mountains could be some periods of snow showers. The best timing looks to be between midnight & 6am Wednesday.
Any accumulation locally should remain light and mainly mountains. Winter Storm Watches are out for the mountains above 2500 ft in Polk & Monroe Co, TN along with Cherokee & Clay Co, NC through Wednesday. Accumulation rates at those higher peaks could be higher because of that upslope flow. Most of the higher peaks along the TN/NC border up through the Smokies could have significant snowfall. Some of the eastern valley locations on the east side of the mountains could have some light accumulation (Murphy, Andrews, Blairsville, etc).
As with any chance of wintry weather anywhere in our viewing area, you can depend on us for updates.
COLD & BREEZY WEDNESDAY
Be aware of some icy spots due to the sharp drop in temperature and of course the higher elevation snow showers.
Some residual flurries or light snow showers could continue for higher elevations then quickly ending. A breezy, chilly day feeling more like winter. High temperatures in the 30s mountains to the low 40s valley (similar to what we had last Saturday).
WARMING TREND BEGINS THURSDAY
Sunshine returns Thursday and it should be milder, but not until the afternoon. Expect a morning near 30 and afternoon temperatures in the low 50s. By Friday, more sunshine and temperatures near 60. Low to mid 60s possible Saturday and again Sunday. More cloud cover is possible Sunday leading to a possible chance of rain by Monday.
As always, you can depend on us for updates!
David Glenn
Wintry Pattern Continues Into Next Week
02/28/13
This wintry pattern with below normal temperatures should continue into next week. Some periodic snow showers through Saturday could yield some light accumulation, especially mountains. Another clipper system will need to be watch for Tuesday which could means some rain first, but then possibly end as snow showers Tuesday night and early Wednesday.
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY
The low pressure system spinning across the Great Lakes will continue to keep the Tennessee Valley chilly through the weekend. Occasionally, there will be some periods of light rain mixed with light snow showers. Moisture amounts remain light through Saturday. The better chance for more widespread light snow showers could occur Friday night and into Saturday morning. Again, overall moisture amounts remain light, but there could be just enough snow shower activity to allow for some light accumulation, especially at higher elevations.
Local mountain tops and toward the Cumberland Plateau could have an inch or so (up to 2" toward Crossville). Likewise, to the east, the higher peaks of the Smokies and Blue Ridge Mtns could have several inches. Valley locations could have a dusting in spots due to the scattered nature of the snow showers. So, overall, while there are no major problems expected, as always watch for some slick spots on the mountain tops.
Temperatures both Friday and Saturday should only top out in the low 40s (30s mountains) and morning lows from 30-32.
DRIER SUNDAY AND MONDAY
Finally, some sunshine returns to the Tennessee Valley Sunday. A very cold start to the day though with temperatures in the upper 20s early, then reaching the mid/upper 40s by afternoon. A little colder Monday morning with mid 20s possible, but quickly rising back to the low 50s by afternoon (still 40s mountains).
KEEP AN EYE ON A "CLIPPER" TUESDAY
The strong upper level flow from the northwest could bring another clipper system our way by Tuesday. This could bring some precipitation starting by the afternoon. The precip could begin as some rain, but as temperatures aloft and at the surface quickly chill, it could change to snow showers. It is still VERY early and several days out, but this system bears watching as there could be enough moisture left with this system to allow from of the snow showers to accumulate in some areas (especially mountains)....Again, welcome to March in the Tennessee Valley!
As always, you can depend on us for updates in the days ahead!
David Glenn
Chill Moving In!
02/26/13
The long expected cold snap is moving in and as mentioned before the chill should stick around for a while as we enter March.
WINDY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
As an area of low pressure continues to sit and spin to our north, windy conditions will result locally. Wind gusts could exceed 30 mph at times through Wednesday and even up to 40 mph on the local mountain tops.
Occasionally, patchy areas of light rain and drizzle will continue to pinwheel around that low pressure and move our way. This pattern too will stick around for the next couple of days. Temperatures should stay in the upper 40s Wednesday and the wind will make it feel colder. Mid 30s by Wednesday Night.
COLDER LATE WEEK & WEEKEND...SOME FLAKES AS WELL
As the upper level flow shifts from the west to the northwest, temperatures will continue to be gradually colder. And, as the cold air moves in aloft, the periodic patchy areas of light rain/drizzle could fall as flurries/light snow at higher elevations starting Wednesday night and periodically through Saturday.
This type of "wrap around" pattern is not typically where we get our big snowfalls. But, there could be some light accumulation at higher elevations (Plateau & Blue Ridge Mtns around an inch or two through Saturday. Most of that could occur later Friday and into Saturday as another disturbance moves through and creates some more widespread areas of flurries & snow showers. Valley locations should have temperatures still just above freezing through Saturday limiting any problems, but some very light accumulation on grassy areas is possible though the flurries/snow showers will be scattered in nature. In other words, not everywhere at the same time. Moisture amounts remain very light, so this should again limit any major problems. As always, we will keep an eye on it!
STILL LOOKS COLDER THAN AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK
A drier day Sunday but still chilly with highs in the 40s. By Tuesday, another clipper system could move in from the northwest. This could allow for a quick round of rain showers that could end as a period of flurries/snow showers by Tuesday night. Temperatures should still be below average for this time of year next week, but slowly warming a bit by late next week.
As always, you can depend on us for updates!
David Glenn
A Colder Pattern Developing
02/25/13
The earlier blog posts have mentioned it, and now that colder pattern will start evolving locally and regionally. And, this colder than average period could stick around well into next week. In other words, welcome to early March in the Tennessee Valley!
RAINY & WINDY THROUGH TUESDAY
A strong low pressure system will create a windy scenario locally through late Monday night and into Tuesday morning. This means an increasing southeast breeze through the night at 15-25mph, but some gusts could reach 30-35 mph. At higher elevations, the gusts could be stronger and even exceed 40mph at times.
Periods of rain can be expected as well from late evening and through the overnight hours. While a few t-showers cannot be ruled out, the overall severe storm risk remains low locally. Tuesday morning should begin wet with a good coverage of rain, but then taper to some periods of drizzle/light rain into the afternoon. Rainfall amounts could average from 0.50" to 1.00" through Tuesday.
A COLDER "WRAP AROUND" PATTERN DEVELOPS
As the strong low pressure moves by and sets up shop over the Mid-Atlantic & Northeast, it will create a persistent northwest upper flow across the Tennessee Valley on the back side of the low pressure system. This type of "wrap around" pattern means some chilly days locally along with some pockets of flurries/light snow showers at times from Wednesday night through Saturday. Occasionally, some light rain/drizzle mixes in. Overall, precipitation amounts should remain light, so no major snow problems are expected. But, some very light accumulation could occur along the usually favored areas of the Cumberland Plateau and Blue Ridge Mountains. The higher peaks of the Smokies and Blue Ridge could have several inches with that upslope flow.
High temperatures should be below average locally as high temperatures drop to the 40s and morning lows near 32. Also breezy at times creating a brisk wind chill. By late Saturday and into Sunday, the air dries out, but still chilly Sunday.
COLDER PATTERN EXTENDS INTO NEXT WEEK
This colder than average pattern should continue well into next week as a deep trough remains in place over the central and eastern US. Locally, this means possibly another chilly week ahead even though it will be March by then. What is also interesting is that both long range forecast models (GFS & ECMWF) favor a clipper like system digging southward around March 5th which "if" that actually happened could mean some wintry precipitation possible locally. So, something to keep an eye on for now.
But, let's just take it one day at a time! As always, you can depend on us for updates!
David Glenn
Weekend & Longer Range Outlook
02/22/13
An early wet start should not dampen the weekend as drier & milder conditions should return.
EARLY MORNING RAIN SATURDAY
Another disturbance will move through the Southeast and Tennessee Valley producing some periods of rain through the predawn hours of Saturday. Any rain should quickly taper off to the south and east after sunrise. Clouds should linger, then gradually break away through the afternoon. Milder temperatures as well with low/mid 40s during the morning, then upper 50s by afternoon with a light southwest wind. Drier through Saturday night with a clear sky and mid 30s.
SUNNY FOR SUNDAY
Sunday should be a nice day to round out the final weekend of February. A chilly morning, but a mild afternoon with a sunny to partly sunny sky. Afternoon temperatures should reach the upper 50s (low 50s mountains) and near 60 in a few spots. Clouds should begin to move back in Sunday night with a low in the upper 30s.
ANOTHER WET START TO THE WEEK
Just as we dry out, rain is poised to move back in Monday. The better coverage should occur during the afternoon. Temperatures should again be mild with mid/upper 50s, but wet through the afternoon. The periods of rain should continue through Monday night and at least Tuesday morning. Long range forecast model projections show the possibility of around at least 0.50" of rain with this system. As for any severe weather, we will be keeping an eye on this. Right now it appears the better chance for strong to severe storms could be south of the I-20 corridor. We will keep you posted!
COLDER AIR RETURNS MID TO LATE WEEK
My past few posts have discussed the cold end to February and beginning of March. Still no changes as a deep trough could develop over the Eastern & Southeastern US by mid-late week and the first several days of March. Some "wrap around" moisture could allow for some periods of flurries or light snow showers Thursday and Friday. Moisture amounts remain light. But, with such a cold pattern settling in we will just have to keep an eye on any southern stream moisture attempting to move back in. Latest longer range models do not consistently show anything right now. Daily high temperatures could stay in the 40s starting Thursday with morning lows in the upper 20s & lower 30s. That trend looks to stick around through the weekend of March 2nd.
As always, you can depend on us for updates!
David Glenn
Some Weather Odds & Ends
02/21/13
The wet weather currently should last through Friday morning. The remainder of Friday looks cloudy with mainly some drizzle. Afternoon temperatures should reach the mid 50s. For the weekend, afternoon temperatures still look milder with upper 50s Saturday and low 60s Sunday. I am still including a slight chance for rain early Saturday morning, but then partly cloudy by afternoon. Sunday looks partly sunny.
FEBRUARY 2013 COOLER & DRIER SO FAR
After back to back months of warmer than average temperatures in December and January, February so far has been cooler than average. Through the 21st, the average temperature at Lovell Field was 43.3 degrees which is 0.3 degrees below average. This also marks the coldest of the statistical 3 winter months of December, January & February. The coldest morning so far was on the 17th with a low of 21 degrees. Rainfall has been below average so far by about 1.40". We still have a surplus of rain for 2013 and the winter season.
LONGER RANGE PATTERN STILL LOOKING CHILLY
As I have discussed in earlier posts, the longer range pattern beyond 7 days starting late next week is still looking colder than normal. With the NAO going deeply negative, this could allow for a deep eastern US trough which means a colder pattern locally and across the Southeastern states. The various long range models continue to suggest some "wrap around" type snow flurries/snow showers late next week and early next weekend. No way of telling if this will cause problems as moisture remains light, But, something to keep an eye on as we turn the calendar to March. The first week of March could be colder than average.
David Glenn
Weather Thoughts On Thursday Morning
02/21/13
We will have clouds increase today as a storm system moves in from the West. I feel we will see some light rain before sunset today. Highs in the upper 50s. Rain is likely tonight and early Friday. Rain may actually end late Friday morning. The weekend includes some rain early on Saturday, mainly East of Chattanooga. Then mainly dry with highs near 60. Bill Race
Milder, But Wetter Through Late Week
02/20/13
Temperatures should gradually inch upward through late week and into the weekend, but so will the chance for rain.
CLOUDY & MILDER THURSDAY
Clouds should linger Thursday. There could be some periods with the sun peeking through at times. Rain chances remain low through late afternoon. It will still be cool, though not as cold as Wednesday with temperatures reaching the mid 50s (near 50 mountains & upper 50s south). Rain chances should increase Thursday night as off and on periods of rain will be possible. It will not be as cold Thursday night with temperatures in the low 40s, but some mid 30s possible to the east in the Blue Ridge Mtn portion of the viewing area.
A WET START FRIDAY
Friday should begin soggy as the off and on periods of rain continue. It looks as if the better coverage should be during the first half of the day, then diminishing chances through the afternoon. Overall rainfall chances do not look that heavy, but a wide range of projections from computer model forecasts....ECMWF (European Model) 0.80"....GFS Model 0.25".....NAM Model 0.61".....Expect lesser amounts north of the city and higher amounts south. The risk of any severe storms remains very low locally.
A LITTLE WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND
The system that will bring us some rain through Friday could stall to our south. This means that some chance for rain could linger over southern portions of the viewing area Saturday morning. So, I am still keeping a slight chance of rain in the local forecast through Saturday morning. Lesser chances later Saturday and Sunday. Afternoon temperatures should average a little above normal with afternoon highs nearing 60 both days.
STILL LOOKS COOLER THAN AVERAGE NEXT WEEK
The overall local and regional pattern still looks like it could become chilly as we end February next week and enter March. As I mentioned in Tuesday's post, the NAO is finally going into a lengthy negative phase for the first time in quite a while. This could mean a deep trough sets up over the eastern US. In other words....a chilly pattern. Longer range outlooks (both European and US models) agree on this colder than average trend through the first week of March.
As for precipitation chances, another round of rain could move in locally late Monday and into Tuesday. Beyond next Tuesday, there is just no consistency with the model data except for temperatures. A colder pattern, but any precipitation looks light in nature but inconsistent on developing systems. So, for you forecast model watchers, you will no doubt see some various winter weather scenarios on the model data by late next week and beyond. But, still, nothing consistent. So, again, we'll be in a "wait and see" mode. The cold pattern looks consistent though.
As always, you can depend on us for updates!
David Glenn
Quite Cool Wednesday.....Rain Returning Late Week
02/19/13
Another brief shot of cold air through Wednesday, but milder temperatures will follow through the end of the work week along with an increasing rain chance.
CHILLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
Yet another brief shot of cold air will visit the Tennessee Valley through Wednesday. Morning temperatures should be in the mid/upper 20s. A sunny to partly sunny sky for the remainder of the day, but afternoon temperatures should stay in the mid/upper 40s. A steady breeze from the north should continue, but not the strong gusts like we had Tuesday.
CLOUDS & MILDER THURSDAY
Clouds should begin to stream back in late Wednesday afternoon and continue into Thursday. Still cold Thursday morning with upper 20s to lower 30s. But, milder temperatures can be expected by Thursday afternoon even with the increasing cloud cover as highs could reach the mid 50s. A slight chance for rain late Thursday afternoon, but a better chance Thursday night and into the first half of Friday.
WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND
Friday should begin wet as the showers push through. Most model data begins to show a drying trend through late Friday and into Friday night. However, the system should stall to our south, so southern portions of the viewing area could still have some lingering showers through early Saturday. Temperatures Friday should reach near 60 and this warming trend should stick around through the weekend. Rainfall amounts from Thursday night and into Friday are not projected to be heavy with the following forecast model projections.....ECMWF (European) 0.50"-.0.60"....GFS 0.28"....NAM 0.24".
Clouds should linger through the weekend along with the warmer than average temperatures. Rain could move back in by late Sunday and into the first couple of days of next week.
COLDER LONG RANGE?
With the NAO finally dipping into the negative territory for a more lengthy period of time, this could mean a period of below average temperatures as we end February next week and into the first 5-10 days of March. Most longer range model data (Euro & US) point toward a colder period locally. The latest 8-14 day temperature outlook by the Climate Prediction Center also agrees.
Some models like the GFS keep popping up some wintry weather threats in the 8-14 day period, but not consistently with the systems that it portrays. So, this means that the model "sees" the colder look to the pattern, but remains indecisive on the development of any storm systems. In other words, "wait and see". Nothing to hang your hat on right now, but maybe your coat as temperatures could be a bit on the chilly side as we enter March. As always, you can depend on us for updates.
David Glenn
Colder Air On The Way
02/14/13
We've talked about this for a while now, and the shot of much colder air is on the way for late Friday and into Saturday.
CLOUDS RETURN FRIDAY
The first of two cold fronts will push through the Tennessee Valley Friday. This will bring clouds back to the area and even some pockets of light rain showers into the afternoon. The rain will be patchy in nature and even last into the evening hours. As for temperatures, the southwest breeze ahead of the front should briefly boost temperatures to the 50s, then quickly fall by late day and into the evening as the wind shifts to the northwest. As the cold air moves in, some of the patchy areas of light rain could switch to some patchy areas of flurries or light snow showers. Moisture remains very limited with this system. Most model projections only range from .02"-.05" of moitsure.
The second front moves through overnight Friday night and again could bring some periods of flurries or patchy light snow showers to the mountains. Again, with limited moisture, no problems are expected with this. Temperatures overnight should drop to the upper 20s to near 30 and feeling colder due to the northwest wind. As always, we will keep an eye on that radar and keep you updated!
WINDY AND CHILLY SATURDAY
The steady breeze from the northwest should continue Saturday producing a wind chill in the 20s and 30s throughout the day. There could be some periodic pockets of flurries here and there, but primarily higher elevations. The higher peaks of the Blue Ridge and Smoky Mtns could have some light accumulation. Otherwise a mix of clouds and sun with temperatures only reaching the low 40s at valley locations and 30s mountains. Saturday night looks drier and colder with an overnight low in the lower 20s.
SUNNY & NICE SUNDAY
Sunday should begin quite cold with temperatures in the low 20s and even some upper 10s north and mountains. But, with sunshine and a light wind, temperatures should steadily climb back to the upper 40s and even near 50 south by the afternoon. The warming trend should continue into Monday with a sun/cloud mix and mid 50s by the afternoon.
RAIN RETURNS TUESDAY
As the warming trend continues, a developing storm system over the Plains states should move our way starting late Monday night. This should bring rain back to the Tennessee Valley into Tuesday. There still remains a chance for some thunderstorms, but still too early to speculate on severe chances. Right now that chance looks low, but as always we will keep an eye on that. Rainfall projections for Tuesday are ranging from 0.50"-0.75".
Wednesday should be dry, but yet another Plains states system rapidly moves in by Thursday and Friday which could mean another round of rain. Again we will have to be watchful for any thunderstorm chance for the late week system as well. The European Model (ECMWF) projects the possibility of over an inch of rain late next Thursday night and into Friday.
I will be taking a few days off from Friday through Monday. Bill Race and Jason Disharoon will continue to keep you updated!
David Glenn
Beautiful Weather For Valentine's Day
02/13/13
Sunshine returns just in time for Valentine's Day! A brief shot of much colder air is still on the way for the weekend. Rain and even some thunderstorms by early next week.
A HEART WARMING FORECAST FOR VALENTINE'S DAY
Sunshine should return for Thursday. A chilly start to the day with temperatures in the low 30s. But, milder temperatures should return for the afternoon with mid/upper 50s (low 50s mountains). If you have evening date plans for your Valentine, expect dry conditions and temperatures in the 40s.
COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY
The first of two cold fronts should pass through the Tennessee Valley Friday morning, followed by the second front by Friday evening. Moisture continues to look limited with both fronts. But, cloud cover should increase during the day Friday and an increasing breeze from the west-northwest by late day. A few light showers could move through during the afternoon and evening hours. Afternoon temperatures should still reach the 50s. The second cold front Friday evening opens the door to a brief shot of arctic air. Breezy and colder conditions through late Friday night and into Saturday. Some occasional periods of flurries could move through during this time, but again moisture is very limited. With enough upslope flow over the Blue Ridge & Smoky Mtns, there could be more in the way of snow showers on the tip tops!
High temperatures Saturday should struggle to reach 40 and the wind will make it feel like the 20s and 30s throughout the day. Low temperatures Saturday night should drop to the low 20s. As I mentioned earlier, this cold snap will be brief as temperatures by Sunday afternoon should reach near 50. Mid to upper 50s by Monday.
RAIN & POSSIBLE T-STORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
The next round of rain could arrive late Monday night and continue through Tuesday. There is the possibility of some thunderstorms during the day Tuesday as an area of low pressure moves through. Still a bit early to speculate on any severe risk. But, as always, we will keep an eye on this.
Model rainfall projections range from 0.60" by the European Model and 1.20" by the GFS Model.
As always, you can depend on us for updates!
David Glenn
A Blustery Wednesday
02/12/13
A wet start to Wednesday followed by windy conditions at times through the afternoon. The upcoming weekend still looks chilly.
WINDY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY
A low pressure system will pass through the Southeast states and keep the start of our day wet at times. Drier air should filter in during the afternoon ending the rain from west to east. The departing low pressure system will increase the breeze from the west-northwest at 15-25mph. So, a wet start, then a blustery end to the day. Afternoon temperatures should stay in the upper 40s and lower 50s with the breeze making it feel even colder through the afternoon hours.
Much colder air moves in for Wednesday night dropping temperatures to the lower 30s. Skies should gradually clear through the night.
DRY, SEASONAL FOR THURSDAY
Sunshine should return for Thursday. After a cold start with temperatures in the 30s, afternoon temperatures should reach the mid/upper 50s. So, nice weather for Valentines Day!
CLOUDS RETURN FRIDAY
Friday should begin dry with a fair sky and temperatures in the 30s during the morning. A gradual increase in cloud cover through the day. There is only a slight chance for rain late in the day. The NAM model a little earlier than the other models with a chance of light rain late day. Expect an afternoon high in the lower 50s. Much colder air begins moving in Friday night.
STILL LOOKS COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND
A brief shot of much colder air should invade the Tennessee Valley Friday night and into the weekend. Moisture still looks light and limited. So, there could be some periods of flurries here and there. However, with that limited moisture this does not appear to be a problem. The big story will be the colder temperatures. Highs on Saturday could stay in the 30s for most areas along with a brisk northwest wind. Low temperatures Saturday night could dip to the lower 20s. Sunny for Sunday with temperatures gradually inching back into the low/mid 40s.
The cold air should move out pretty quickly with afternoon temps back in the low 50s by Monday.
WET & POSSIBLY STORMY EARLY NEXT WEEK
Yet another strong low pressure system approaches starting late Monday. This could spread rain back into the region late day Monday and into Monday night. More widespread areas of rain and even some thunderstorms possible by Tuesday.
As always, you can depend on us for updates!
David
Rain Returns Fat Tuesday.....Much Colder By The Weekend
02/11/13
"Let the good times roll....or rain" for Fat Tuesday. Temperatures remain seasonal through the end of the week, then some much colder air for the weekend.
RAIN RETURNS TUESDAY
Another system should roll through the Tennessee Valley Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. This should provide another round of rain especially by Tuesday afternoon. Rain should begin moving back in locally from the south. So, southern parts of the viewing area should have a longer duration of rain from late morning through the rest of the day. Northern parts of the viewing area should have rain moving in much later in the day. So, a gradual increase from south to north through the course of the afternoon.
Off & on rainy periods should continue Tuesday night before tapering off by Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall amounts will also vary from the south to north. Rainfall projections range from 0.25"-0.50" around the city, to possible amounts of 0.75" to near 1" over southern sections. As the rain tapers off late Wednesday (Ash Wednesday), there could be some flurries over the Cumberland Plateau near Crossville, but right now not a big deal.
DRY & SEASONAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
Sunshine returns for Thursday with a sunny to partly sunny sky. Temperatures should be seasonal with morning lows in the low 30s both mornings and highs in the low/mid 50s each afternoon.
MUCH COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND
A brief visit of some arctic air is still expected for the upcoming weekend. Along the leading edge of the cold air there could be a disturbance that produce some light precipitation. Right now this could mean some periods of flurries or light snow showers Saturday afternoon. This type of "clipper" pattern doesn't typically provide us with big snows around here and moisture amounts look quite low under 0.10". The usual favored areas of the higher elevations could get a dusting or light covering. As always, we'll keep an eye on that! Saturday night looks drier and colder, then sunny Sunday.
Temperatures over the weekend will be noticeably colder with highs in the upper 30s to near 40 Saturday. Lows in the upper 20s and even some 10s north Saturday night. Sunday's highs should stay in the low 40s.
As always, you can depend on us to keep you updated!
David Glenn
Weekend Outlook....Sunny Start, But A Wetter End.
02/08/13
A nice start to the second weekend of February, but as we have been discussing rain will move back in later Sunday.
SUNNY, SUNNY SATURDAY
Saturday really looks nice. Now, it will be quite cold during the morning hours with upper 20s at sunrise. But, with plenty of sunshine and a light breeze, temperatures should eventually reach the mid/upper 50s through the afternoon hours (low 50s mountains). Soak up that sunshine and Vitamin D as clouds will race back in Saturday night.
SHOWERS RETURNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
Sunday should be cloudy and not nearly as cold during the morning hours with mainly upper 30s. Temperatures should reach the mid/upper 50s by afternoon along with a gradual increase in the chance of showers during the afternoon. A more widespread chance for rain Sunday night and through at least Monday morning. Some thundershowers cannot be ruled out, but the chance of severe weather locally remains very low with the better chances well to our south. A quick look at model projections through midday Monday...(European 1.20"...GFS 1.15"....NAM 1.04").
PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK
Off & on rainy periods are still possible through at least midweek. Model projections differ a bit on the timing of each disturbance. A good swath of rain could swing back through Monday night to Tuesday. A gradual drying trend by Thursday and early Friday. One item I found interesting was the GFS model insistence of a quick moving low pressure system within the southerly flow spreading a period of "wrap around" snow showers early Wednesday. None of the other global models indicate this, but as always just something to keep an eye on. Temperatures should remain above seasonal averages through Tuesday, then chill to near or below average Wednesday through Friday.
COLDER LOOKING LONG RANGE
The Arctic Oscillation indicates a dip or negative phase over the next 10 days and the overall pattern is showing a colder look locally and regionally late next week and beyond into the President's Day weekend. Daily highs dropping back to the 40s and even some 30s over that weekend. As far as any snow chances, I am sure that you forecast model watchers have been noticing the off and on chances for at least a few disturbances moving through locally. The GFS keeps jumping around in both location and timing, while the European (ECMWF) has been locked in to the chance of a wintry precipitation chance locally next weekend. So, some things to watch in the days ahead. No way at all to pinpoint at this time.
Have a terrific, but safe weekend! You can depend on us to keep you updated!
David
Winter 2013 Mid-Season Update
02/07/13
Winter 2012-2013 is half over, so it's time to check the local stats so far!
THE GOOD & THE BAD
Let's start with the temperatures through December and January. As most of you know, temperatures so far have been above average. December's average temperature was 48.1 which was 5.5 degrees above average. January's average temperature was 45.4 which was 4.9 degrees above average. As you will remember, my winter forecast projected the possibility of below normal temperatures. Even if arctic air poured in for 2-3 weeks straight to round out February, the winter temperature projection will simply be a bust.
I have to base seasonal outlooks on past patterns (climatology). As I mentioned in the winter outlook, computer model guidance simply is not a good tool for seasonal outlooks. So, those cannot be factored in. The NAO/AO projections are only good 1-2 weeks in advance. So, I have to look for similar seasonal patterns (El Nino/La Nina/Neutral). Sometimes it's good....sometimes it's bad! This one was the latter so far. I've had a good track record the past few years, but as far as this winter's temperatures....nope!
Now, all is not a bust. The rainfall category has fit the weak El Nino past patterns quite well. I projected that we should get our seasonal precipitation and avoid coming out of winter with a drought. So far, so good! Here are the rainfall stats. December had 5.56" of precipitation which was 0.66" above average. January was very wet with a total of 9.74" which was 2.64" above average. February's precipitation total has been light so far, but is projected to pick up next week. Again, the weak El Nino to Neutral winters have been consistently near average and some below average. But based on the Fall 2012 patterns I went with the wetter side of the past stats.
Now, for the wild card category of snow. If you will recall from the winter outlook, I call this the wild card category because we average such a low amount anyway (around 4"). So, just one snow event can top that. So far, based on Lovell Field observations, we had a trace on Dec 26th & 29th. Some light snow showers (no accumulation except mtns) on January 18th. Some light ice accumulation on January 25th. Then, 0.3" of light snow accumulation on February 2nd. So far, these totals are below seasonal averages. Snow can still happen locally as late as early April, but the odds drop each week through late February and into March. So, we'll see how things turn out!
Why so warm locally? Well since this is the bust category let's take a look. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has been fluctuating around average. When the NAO is in the negative phase, it can often lead to a blocking pattern that can lead to prolonged cold air events in the East and Southeast. This is what we had during the winter's of 2010 & 2011. The lack of blocking has kept the cold outbreaks shorter in nature and has allowed for quicker temperature recovery. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been in negative territory from time to time, but not a blocking phase yet. These patterns have allowed at times for high pressure off the Southeast coast to become dominant at times and keep our region milder.
What about the rest of winter? With just about 6 weeks until March 20th, there is still time for winter to occasionally show up. Looking at the CFS (Climate Forecast System) sub-monthly outlooks, the second half of February could have some wintry periods. Colder, more seasonal temperatures could return late next week around or just after the 14th. Model data hints at some southern stream systems interacting with the cold air. Nothing to really hang your hat on for now being this far out, but just something to keep an eye on. The CFS projections point to this colder pattern possibly spilling over into early March, then warming quite a bit toward mid month. Again, this is a model projection but has some validity with some colder periods around mid February.
So, let's see how the next 6 weeks go. Yeah, I know, the seasonal temperature outlook didn't work out so well. Many other published winter outlooks went in the same direction. Discouraged?...Never! I look at it as a challenge. I enjoy preparing the daily forecasts, but I really enjoy pouring over past local weather stats and patterns. What has happened once before will no doubt repeat itself at some point in the future. I say this many times, the weather is gonna do what it wants to do! And, you can depend on us to tell you what's going on!
David
Some Showers Thursday, But A Better Soaking Possible Early Next Week
02/06/13
Clouds and showers return for Thursday through early Friday. Rainfall amounts do not appear to be that heavy, but could be for early next week.
CLOUDS & SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY
An approaching system will bring clouds back to the area Wednesday night and into Thursday. The first slug of moisture in advance of a cold front should pass by Thursday afternoon and evening. The "heaviest" rain will this system should be along the Gulf Coast, with mainly off and on showers locally and rainfall amounts staying under 1/3 of an inch through early Friday. The main cold front should slide through early Friday and still produce some showers Friday morning, then drier into the afternoon and some clearing by Friday evening and night.
WEEKEND STARTS NICE
Saturday still looks nice to begin the second weekend of February. It should be a bit chilly during the morning hours with temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s. But, skies should be sunny to partly sunny through the afternoon with temperatures topping out in the upper 50s (near 60 south).
Clouds return Saturday night and into Sunday. Some showers begin to move in Sunday afternoon and through Sunday night. A more widespread coverage of rain later Monday and even into Tuesday as a series of systems moves through with a very active southwesterly flow. Model rainfall projections still look robust with a range of 1"-2" possible. The longer range GFS model even introduces a possible low pressure system developing on Wednesday which could push across the Southeast and Tennessee Valley. "If" such a scenario took place, then some thunderstorms would be possible during that time frame. And, of course, more rain. We'll keep an eye on that as that is still a week away!
COLDER TEMPS STILL POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK
Winter continues to take a break across not just the Tennessee Valley, but for most of the southern 1/3 of the US. That pattern could finally break late next week as a northwesterly flow returns and possibly a deep "trough" in the jet over the central and eastern US. This could mean a colder than average pattern by late next week and into the start of the week of the 18th. Some of you have already asked me about any snow with the possible cold air. Such long range projections are just in the mind of a computer being greater than 10 days out. So, let's see how deep the trough develops late next week. And, if sufficiently cold we'll watch any activity from the southern jet. That's about all you can do as long range computer model forecasts are pure speculation.
MID-SEASON UPDATE
As you know, each year I put out a Winter Outlook. And, during the first week of February, I usually have a mid season status report. This year is no different. I will have an update on Winter 2013 so far coming up on Thursday. It's always fun to discuss stats!
David Glenn
Above Average Temps & Rainfall Chances
02/05/13
Spring-like temperatures should continue for the next few days, but some rain chances are on the horizon.
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS NICE!
Some patchy fog during the morning Wednesday, but otherwise a nice day ahead. A partly to mostly sunny sky with afternoon temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s. A nice afternoon to be outside!
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE FOR THURSDAY
A fast moving system should bring clouds back to the Tennessee Valley Thursday. And, some showers will follow especially during the afternoon. This round of rain and system overall is not being handled well by forecast models. The NAM model projects a low rain total of 0.15", while the GFS is quite wet with a possible 0.84" amount late Thursday through early Friday. The European model a little drier with 0.10" or so. And, the coverage of showers looks spotty in nature. So, this should not be a big rain making system. The chance for scattered showers should exist from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Clouds may be stubborn to exit Friday, but conditions looks dry Friday night and into Saturday.
NICE START TO THE WEEKEND
Saturday is still looking good overall. Some morning clouds giving way to a mix of sun and clouds. Afternoon temperatures should reach the upper 50s to even some low 60s south. More clouds should move in Saturday night and into Sunday. With the additional cloud cover, Sunday's afternoon temperatures should hold in the mid/upper 50s.
SOME SOAKING RAINFALL MONDAY
The next rain making system should be a good soaking locally. This system should tap in to deeper Gulf moisture and start to move some showers back to the Tennessee Valley late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Rainfall amounts light to begin with, but the coverage and rainfall amounts should increase through Monday. Computer forecast model rainfall projections remain quite impressive with the GFS model projecting close to 2" while the European model is averaging near 1.5". The chance of rain should continue through early Tuesday, then possibly drier into Tuesday afternoon. The European model prolongs the rain event into Wednesday with a second system moving in right on the heels of the first one. So, we will keep an eye on this for next week. Either way, a wet start to the upcoming week is possible.
SEASONAL TEMPS RETURNING LATE NEXT WEEK.
Following the rain, temperatures could finally return to seasonal levels and actually start to feel more like February. By next Wednesday, high temps could ease back to the 40s and lows back in the 30s. Below freezing mornings possibly returning by late next week. Until that time temperatures should remain above average.
As always, you can depend on us for updates!
David Glenn
A Milder Week Ahead....Heavy Rain Chance Early Next Week
02/04/13
After a wild weather week last week, we should have a more tranquil week weather wise this week. Milder afternoons are also possible as well.
SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
A weak system moves through the Tennessee Valley during the early morning hours of Tuesday. This could produce some periods of light rain/drizzle before sunrise Tuesday and through about lunch time. Any rainfall amounts should remain very light. Drier through the afternoon with mid to possibly upper 50s as a southwest wind continues.
LOOKING GOOD WEDNESDAY!
Wednesday is shaping up to be a very nice day! Some patchy fog early should give way to a partly to mostly sunny sky. Chilly early on with temperatures in the mid 30s. But, by afternoon, temperatures should reach the mid/upper 50s in most locations, but possibly as high as 60 in areas to the south.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
Our next rain producing system should approach us by late Thursday. Expect increasing cloud cover Thursday, but again quite mild for this time of year with an afternoon high near 60. Computer model guidance differs a bit on the timing of the rain moving in with the GFS model holding off any rain locally until Thursday night while the European model favors Thursday afternoon. For this reason, I am including a slight chance for rain moving in Thursday afternoon with increasing chances Thursday night.
Off and on showers should continue Friday before ending Friday evening. Overall rainfall amounts could average between .50" to .80". So, the rain does not appear to be heavy at this time.
NICE START TO THE WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY A WET END
Drier conditions should move back in just in time to start the weekend Saturday. Right now, it looks as if we could have a partly sunny sky with temperatures through the afternoon once again above average as we near the 60 degree mark. Soak up Saturday, because some soaking rain could move back in later Sunday through Monday.
The next system for Sunday through Monday could provide some heavier rainfall totals locally. Scattered showers possibly beginning Sunday afternoon with more widespread rain Sunday night and into Monday. Computer model guidance suggests that rainfall totals could really start to add up with the GFS model projection of possibly 1.40" through Monday evening and the European model projecting a 1" to 2" range through Monday night with even heavier localized totals.
Temperatures through this period should remain just above seasonal averages with afternoon highs in the upper 50s through Monday and lows during this period in the low 40s.
COLDER TEMPERATURES HOLDING OFF UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE NEXT WEEK
This milder than average temperature pattern should continue until possibly late next week. Longer range projections bring a possible shot of colder than average air back to our region by Thursday and Friday of next week. We'll continue to keep an eye on that and all of the weather changes listed above. You can always depend on us for updates!
David Glenn
Weekend Outlook
02/01/13
A wintry start, but sunny end to the weekend.
Another "clipper" system should move through the Tennessee Valley Saturday. This should keep skies cloudy along with a chance for a wintry mix of rain/snow showers. Moisture amounts should be light limiting any widespread problems. This should mainly occur from late morning and into the afternoon before quickly moving out. The usual spots along the Cumberland Plateau and Blue Ridge Mtns could have some spotty light accumulation. Temperatures will be chilly, but should reach the low 40s as a southwest wind kicks in ahead of the clipper. Higher elevations could stay in the upper 30s. So, temperatures should be above freezing as the clipper slides through the area.
By Saturday evening, any remaining flurries quickly end, then drier overnight with a low near 30. Sunday looks dry, though it may begin cloudy. Eventually by afternoon a mix of sun and clouds with a high in the upper 40s. If we can get a little more sunshine earlier, some areas could reach above 50.
A milder trend takes over for much of next week with highs mainly in the low 50s and morning lows in the 30s. A temperature trend which is close to average for this time of year.
As always, you can depend on us for updates!
David Glenn
Windy Again, But This Time It's Colder
01/30/13
My thoughts are with all of those affected by Wednesday's storms.
The severe storms rolled through as expected during the day Wednesday. Strong wind gusts and heavy periods of rain were common, but unfortunately some experienced damage. The strong storm that produced the tornado from Floyd Co, Bartow Co & Gordon Co was where most of the damage occurred locally.
The threat of severe weather is over, but the wind will continue to howl through the night and into Thursday. The wind will not be bringing a return chance of storms, but instead usher in some much colder air through Thursday and Friday. As the cold air sweeps in some pockets of flurries or even some light sleet/snow will be possible from time to time. No major problems expected, but a dusting in spots at higher elevations. Temperatures by early Thursday morning should drop into the lower 30s along with a brisk WNW wind at 15-25mph with gusts above 30mph.
Thursday should again be windy at times. Morning clouds giving way to a mix of clouds and sun and high temperatures only in the mid 40s. A continued brisk west wind at 15-20mph.
Another clipper system dives southward from the northwest and could usher in some even colder air with temperatures falling into the 20s late Friday night. This clipper system could even produce a period of light snow showers and flurries Friday night. Again, any accumulation light and mainly at higher elevations. The rest of Friday looks breezy and cold with highs only in the mid 30s. Some mountain locations may not even get above the freezing mark of 32.
Winter is back for a couple of days!
David Glenn
Severe Weather Update
01/29/13
The chance for severe weather continues locally for Wednesday.
WINDY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
Local wind speeds should gradually pick up late in the night and through Wednesday morning in advance of the cold front. The strong southerly breezes will average between 15-25mph with some higher gusts (especially at higher elevations). A Wind Advisory is in effect because of this. Please secure any loose items in your yard (lawn furniture, garbage cans, trampolines, etc).
Much stronger wind gusts will be possible as the line of storms approaches Wednesday morning. Some gusts could exceed 60-70mph in spots with some storms.
TIMING OF WEDNESDAY'S STORMS
Based on data Tuesday evening, the time frame from 7am - 2pm is the possible window for when severe storms could occur locally. Keep in mind that with systems likes this, lines of t-storms can both slow down and speed up, so we will be watching the radar trends through the early morning hours.
The coverage of showers should increase during the night, especially late. The greater threat for storms developing toward morning. We will be watching not only for the potential line of severe storms, but also any stronger cells that develop in advance of that line.
The threat of strong to severe storms should ease by late afternoon from west to east. Again, depending upon the continued speed of the system.
TAKE ANY WARNINGS SERIOUSLY
I know most of you do this anyway, but I wanted to stress this point for this particular storm system. In my job, I NEVER want to scare anyone. Instead, my goal is to make sure our viewers stay alert and are prepared. Due to the possibility of damaging wind gusts with some of the storms, it will be important to seek proper shelter from the wind even if your county is under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. I have said many times that you should treat a Severe Thunderstorm Warning like you would a Tornado Warning because of the threat of damaging wind gusts.
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
Heavy downpours could accompany the line of storms Wednesday. Rainfall amounts could average between 1" to 1.5" and even a few spots near 2". Situations like this are hard to pinpoint for exact locations due to individual storm cells. So, while some areas could see the amounts listed above, there will also be the possibility for some locations to see less than that. Just be aware of the heavy rain potential especially in you live in a area prone to flash flooding. And, be careful traveling!
BE AWARE AND STAY ALERT
As we have done in the past, the StormTrack 9 Team will keep you updated every step of the way. A lot of folks have asked me about the threat of tornadoes. I realize that nobody likes to even hear that word. And, trust me, I don't like saying it. But, you have to be aware that tornadoes cannot be ruled out with this system. Primary threats are damaging wind gusts and heavy rain. But, we will have to watch for any supercell storms that might develop in advance of a squall line. Then, in advance of the front, the possible squall line that develops could have isolated tornadoes develop. I certainly hope this does not happen, but you have to be aware of the possibility.
Be sure your family has a safety plan and knows what to do and where to go should your neighborhood be placed under any warnings.
STAY INFORMED
The StormTrack 9 Team offers several ways for you to stay informed of severe weather.
- Watch/Warning Map updates on the screen scrolling information on Newschannel 9. Continuous weather coverage.
- Click Here for the Newschannel 9 Web Page
- Click Here for the StormTrack 9 Zoom Radar
- Click Here for information on NOAA Weather Alert Radios & S.A.M.E county codes
Follow us on Facebook....."WTVC-TV NewsChannel 9 News"....."Meteorologist David Glenn WTVC"........"StormTrack 9 Weather WTVC-TV"
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You can depend on us for updates!
David Glenn
Storm Prediction Center Outlook For Wednesday
01/29/13
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to include the Tennessee Valley in the "Slight Risk" category for the possibility of severe storm development on Wednesday. More specifically, the SPC has outlined most of our viewing area for a 30% chance of storms reaching severe levels. This means that some storms could produce damaging wind, hail and the chance for tornadoes cannot be ruled out.You can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team for updates.....(David Glenn)
Severe Storms Possible Wednesday
01/28/13
Strong to severe storms are still a possibility for Wednesday.
An approaching low pressure system and trailing cold front could create an outbreak of strong to severe storms across the Southeast beginning Tuesday night through Wednesday. Locally, the timing could be around sunrise Wednesday through the afternoon. Late Monday night model data shows the system slowing down a bit as it approaches which could keep most of the day locally on Wednesday wet with the chance of storms.
This type of set up could allow for a squall line to approach locally. These types of squall lines can produce damaging wind gusts that could reach 60-70mph at times along with periods of heavy rain. The tornado threat cannot be ruled out. Squall lines can have what are known as "bowing segments" where the upper level winds can punch even stronger and even allow for a quick spin up of tornadic activity. So, you have to be aware and remain alert that an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain could also cause ponding on roadways.
As of late Monday, the Storm Prediction Center placed our viewing area in the "Slight Risk" category for the chance of severe storms Wednesday. Parts of central Mississippi, Arkansas and Louisiana have been placed in a higher category of a "Moderate Risk" for Tuesday. Could our risk category change? Maybe, but it depends on the development and evolution of the system through Tuesday. And, that's the key. There is simply no way of knowing this far in advance if a tornado will strike a specific location. As always, we will continue to track the system and continue to provide timely updates.
If you own a NOAA weather alert radio, now would be a good time just to make sure that the batteries are fresh and that it is programmed correctly.
You can always depend on the StormTrack 9 Team for updates!
David Glenn
Storm Prediction Center Outlook For Wednesday
01/28/13
The Storm Prediction Center has our area in the slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Wednesdsay. We will be tracking that weather until it passes. Bill Race
Big Warm Up Followed By Some Midweek Storms
01/27/13
Another huge swing in temperatures is expected over the next few days. And, as is usually the case, big winter warm ups usually lead to some thunderstorms as the air masses collide. A southerly breeze takes over through Tuesday which should first warm temperatures to the upper 50s Monday, then well into the 60s and even near 70 by Tuesday. The record high by Tuesday is 73 which occurred in 1932. As the warm sector takes over the Southeast and Tennessee Valley, it sets the stage for a potential round of heavy rain and severe storms as a cold front approaches Tuesday night through Wednesday. The latest computer model guidance suggests the possibility of a squall line (line of storm storms) pushing across the region during the time frame from the early morning hours of Wednesday to the afternoon. These types of squall lines can bring the chance of damaging wind gusts and heavy rain. The chance for tornadoes cannot be ruled out either. Squall lines can at times have quick spin ups within the line for possible tornado development. Of course, we certainly hope that does not happen, but we want to make you aware of the possibilities that can exist with systems like this. You can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team for updates!
Freezing Rain In Spots Possible Friday Morning
01/24/13
A Freezing Rain Advisory has been placed in effect for a large part of our viewing area from 4am ET to 7pm ET Friday.
Late night computer model projections continue to push the start time of any precipitation closer to sunrise. This really narrows the window or time frame of how long we would have to deal with a wintry mix (mid morning to early afternoon)
Temperatures should continue to steadily drop to the upper 20s & lower 30s by sunrise. Generally a light precipitation event, but it doesn't take much to make things icy in spots. The overall set up is a cold air mass in place at the surface, while warm, moist air flows in aloft. Rain should fall into the colder air mass near the surface and result in some periods of sleet and freezing rain through Friday morning and early afternoon.
Temperatures might even drop a couple of degrees once the precipitation begins. This is called evaporative cooling as the precipitation evaporates before reaching the ground and thus cools the surrounding air. This could cause temperatures to drop to the upper 20s. Sometimes with events like this in the past, the precipitation could begin as some flurries, then to sleet and eventually freezing rain as the air mass warms just above the surface. Remember, freezing rain is precipitation that falls as rain, then freezes on contact with the ground or other exposed objects.
Overall, this should be a short event. Temperatures should eventually sneak above the freezing mark by early afternoon which should limit the time frame of icing issues. The problem around our viewing area is that the rate of warming will vary due to elevation and colder valley pockets. A southerly wind should get those temperatures above freezing for most of the viewing area during the afternoon.
As I mentioned earlier, precipitation amounts remain patchy and light. If there was no cold air in place, we would just be talking about a cloudy day with some drizzle and periods of light rain. But, with the cold air in place, even just 0.10" of rain can cause some icing problems. That is the reason for concern especially during the morning and especially at higher elevations.
As I always say, the weather is going to do what it wants to do. And, we will track it every step of the way. We'll have updates throughout the day Friday.
David Glenn
Wintry Weather Update For Friday Morning
01/23/13
No big changes to my earlier post about the chance of a wintry mix Friday morning. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for a large part of our viewing area beginning Thursday night and through Friday.
The system moving in still primarily looks to be a freezing rain, sleet issue than that of snow. Moisture amounts remain light, but when you are dealing with the chance of freezing drizzle or rain, just a little bit can make things slippery.
I continue to keep an eye on the latest computer model data in an attempt to narrow down the timing. The leading edge of some moisture could move in during the predawn hours Friday with the main swath of moisture around sunrise and through the morning hours. This tapers off during the late afternoon. Overall precipitation amounts still look light with most models projecting under .30".
Temperatures should be in the upper 20s Friday morning as the precip moves in. So, as this happens this could start as a freezing drizzle/freezing rain, sleet situation. Temperatures will be slow to warm above freezing only reaching the mid 30s by afternoon. And, as we all know, that warming will happen at different times all across the area due to elevation and colder valley pockets.
Even though moisture amounts look light, even freezing drizzle can cause some slippery conditions on bridges, overpasses and roadways. Also, this could accumulate lightly on exposed objects. This does not appear to be a long lasting event, mainly around 12 hours or so (3am-3pm), but as always we will continue to monitor. Some light snow could mix in at some spots, but the main chance for accumulating snow should be well to our northeast over the Smoky Mtns/Blue Ridge Mtns and areas of northeast Tennessee.
As always, you can depend on us for updates!
David Glenn
Cold Temps Remain...Keep An Eye On Friday Morning
01/22/13
A persistent northwest flow aloft will keep temperatures below seasonal averages through Saturday. We will have to keep an eye on two disturbances moving through that could squeeze out some moisture with the cold air still in place, especially Friday morning.
SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
One of these disturbances will slide through the Tennessee Valley Wednesday night through early Thursday morning. This should be overall a moisture starved system, but there could be just enough to squeeze out some drizzle or flurries. None of the major forecast models show anything more than 0.05" of liquid precip falling into a dry air mass. Temperatures will be in the low/mid 30s through Thursday morning, so during the night Wednesday night we will keep an eye on this very weak system. At this time is does not look problematic.
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
The next system approaches the Tennessee Valley Thursday evening and continues through Friday. This system could be a little more problematic with the cold air being stubborn about moving out. A warming "aloft" should occur through Thursday night which should produce rain up above, but it could fall into a freezing air mass just above and at the surface. This could result in a wintry mix Thursday night through Friday morning. This means a mix of rain/sleet & freezing rain primarily and even some snowflakes in spots.
The problem with scenarios like this is that all parts of the viewing area will not warm at the same rate or time. Higher elevations and colder valley pockets will only slowly warm. Eventually through the day Friday, temps at all locations should reach the upper 30s to lower 40s leaving us with a chilly, wet afternoon.
Precipitation amounts are very light with model ranges from 0.15"-0.30". Light, but could cause problems if some areas get freezing rain for a period of time during the morning.
Once the system passes by Friday afternoon, the main area of precipitation should move out and colder air returns. There could be some "wrap around" snow flurries or light snow showers, but at this time, that round of precipitation does not appear to be a problem. Breezy and colder Saturday with low 40s under a partly sunny sky.
So, a lot to watch in the days ahead. As always, you can depend on us for updates.
David Glenn
Coldest Air Of The Season So Far
01/21/13
So far, we have been spared of any deep arctic outbreaks here in the Tennessee Valley. Just take a peek at the record low for both today and this past Sunday...(-9)...that's 9 BELOW zero back in 1985. I remember that arctic outbreak very well. I was a senior in high school and that frigid air arrived on a Sunday morning accompanied by a couple of inches of dry, powdery snow which we don't get that often around here. Nor do we have below zero readings that often.
Now, with that being said, the cold air coming in Monday night and Tuesday doesn't sound that bad. But, considering that the coldest temperature so far this winter was 25 degrees on December 22nd, the low 20s on the way are going to be quite cold. Breezy at times with a rapid drop in temperature to the lower 20s late Monday night through Tuesday morning. A few areas away from the city could drop to the upper 10s. Tuesday's high temperatures should stay in the 30s along with a wind chill in the 10s and 20s. Mountain locations might not even get above 32. Another very cold night Tuesday night as temperatures drop to the low 20s with some 10s possible again.
Temperatures should moderate a bit for Wednesday as the mercury climbs to the mid 40s by afternoon. Low 50s return for Thursday & Friday.
MOSTLY DRY WITH THE CHILL IN PLACE
The first question asked to me when I talk about very cold air is will there be any snow. Not this time as it will be quite dry with the cold air in place. A fast moving system could move in late Wednesday and early Thursday that could squeeze out some sprinkles or flurries, but not much expected. More in the way of snow showers over the Smoky Mountains.
WET BY FRIDAY, COLDER AGAIN SATURDAY
The system moving in for late Thursday and Friday looks wet as temperatures will have warmed as the arctic air moves out. Off and on showers Friday with temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The rain should taper off Friday evening as some colder air moves in. There could be some periods of flurries or some light snow showers Friday night through early Saturday. This would be the "wrap around" variety of flakes which typically does not cause any major problems locally, but could provide some accumulation in the higher peaks of the Smokies.
Saturday's highs should be in the mid 40s accompanied by a strong northwest wind. Lows both Saturday and Sunday morning dipping back to the mid 20s. Low 50s return by Monday along with a possible return chance of rain.
HD SET DEBUTS THIS SUNDAY (27th)
Our brand new HD set finally makes its debut this Sunday, January 27th. So much time and work has been put into this project and the final pieces are being put in place. I know many of you are tired of seeing the "grey carpet" temporary set, but once you see the new set, you will see why it was worth the wait.
As I type this post, I am in our brand new weather center. It is more spacious and allows more access to the weather computers for on-air use. I am so excited for Sunday to get here and you can see the results!
David Glenn
A Mild Holiday Weekend, But Some Colder Air For Next Week
01/18/13
As expected, sunshine finally returned Friday and it should stick around for the weekend and early next week.
A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
Expect a lot of sunshine Saturday. After the cold start in the upper 20s, temperatures should reach the low/mid 50s by afternoon (near 50 local mountains). A light breeze from the south will help to warm temperatures as well. Dry conditions should continue through Sunday and Monday (Dr Martin Luther King Day). Temperatures will be even milder Sunday with mid/upper 50s, then ease back to the upper 40s on Monday. Low temperatures both mornings in the low 30s.
A SHORT LIVED ARCTIC BLAST BY TUESDAY
Some of the coldest air of the season so far could pay us a visit by Tuesday. A brisk northerly wind should drop high temperatures to the 30s Tuesday and the wind chill should make it feel even colder. Low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday morning could average between the upper 10s to lower 20s. Temperatures on Wednesday will again struggle to get out of the 30s. Even though it will be cold, it will also be dry, so no snow will accompany this chill.
LATE WEEK RAIN
Longer range computer models are fairly consistent with bringing the next possible chance of rain by next Friday. By then, the arctic air will have eroded and high temperatures will have returned to the 40s and 50s. An approaching front could usher in some rain during the day Friday and into Saturday.
David Glenn
Let There Be Sun!!!!!!!!
01/17/13
After 9 straight days of measurable precipitation, the sun finally returns to the Tennessee valley Friday!
UPPER LOW PRODUCES ABOUT WHAT EXPECTED
The "upper low" that moved through on Thursday did about what we thought it would do. First, the ground would stay warm and wet and temps above freezing except mountains. Second, the precip would be a mix here and there of periods of rain and periods of snow. Any accumulation was expected to be scattered and light due to the conditions listed above and so far that has been the case. Some mountain tops locations had a decent ground covering, but not all the mountain tops. Again, this was due to the scattered nature of this type of system.
WHY WERE THERE DIFFERENT WARNINGS & ADVISORIES?
I had that question asked often. Our viewing area is quite unique in the fact that it is covered by 4 different NWS offices (Huntsville, Nashville, Morristown & Peachtree City). Each office has a different set of criteria for winter weather events. For example, the NWS Peachtree City considers a 1"-3" snowfall to fit a Winter Storm criteria for a Watch or Warning. However, the NWS Morristown considers that same amount to only fit the criteria for a Winter Weather Advisory and not a Winter Storm. So, the definitions are different for each office, which only adds to confusion in situations like Thursday.
These various offices also projected higher expected accumulation amounts than what I projected. So, naturally, I get email about a wrong forecast for a 3" snowfall forecast, when that was not mine. But, that's just folks blowing off steam if they are disappointed by a lack of snow. I like snow too, so I understand how folks get upset. But, I was pleased with the forecast I put out there Wednesday night for a mainly scattered and light wintry event.
Please be aware that come icy spots are possible Friday morning as temperatures dip to the mid & upper 20s. So, be extra careful driving late Thursday night and early Friday morning.
LET'S TALK ABOUT SOME SUN FOR A CHANGE!
The giant, bright orb in the sky Friday will be something called the sun! Yes, we haven't seen our bright smiling friend for a while. The sunshine and blue sky will be a welcome sight all across the Tennessee Valley. It may be a bit cool during the day, but I don't think it will matter to most. High temperatures should only reach the mid 40s and a lighter north wind at 10mph.
Quite cold again Friday night with a low in the mid/upper 20s, but another day full of sun Saturday with temperatures near 52. Overall, the forecast looks dry for most of the next 5-7 days. However, a shot of much colder air could roll in by Tuesday pushing our high temperatures down into the upper 30s with low dropping to the lower 20s and even some teens possible. Just a reminder from mother nature that it is January after all!
David Glenn
Wintry Thursday, But Sunny Friday
01/16/13
After days of rain, it could finally come to an end Thursday. But, some snow could mix in before ending. Sunshine finally returns Friday!
RAIN/SNOW CHANCE FOR THURSDAY
This is our first wintry threat for the season so far. An "upper low" will make its way from the lower Mississippi Valley northeast toward north Alabama and north Georgia. This type of system has very cold air aloft and can quickly bring that cold air to the surface. This is why what could start out as rain Thursday could become a period of snow before ending Thursday evening. These types of "upper" lows can be very tricky. Why? Because computer models have a hard time projecting precipitation amounts and type. Also, the rapid rate of cooling aloft can happen quickly, which can cause a faster change from rain to frozen precipitation.
So, as we look ahead to Thursday, this "tricky" upper low can cause rain and snow in different places at different times. It should start out wet, then windy and colder with temperatures falling into the 30s. This should first start to occur at higher elevations around the city and west as temperatures should cool much faster there around late morning and through the afternoon. The warm, wet ground will initially prevent accumulation, but exposed objects and grassy areas could have some accumulation. How much? The scattered nature of this type of event is the most difficult part of forecasting upper lows. The warm, wet ground comes into play as well, but systems like this have been known to produce a couple of inches quickly with some of the bursts of snow.
Likewise, valley locations will be dealing with a warm, wet ground. A rainy morning becomes a mix of raindrops and snowflakes through the afternoon, then some periods of snow as the afternoon goes on through the early evening. Accumulations are again possible, but scattered in nature. Unfortunately, not everybody will get snow evenly across the area. Mainly light amounts at valley locations because of the wet ground with scattered areas of an inch or less. There could be some spots that do get some better bursts of snow showers than others, so a few valley areas could see a little more. That's just the nature of these upper lows.
Heavier snow amounts are expected over the Blue Ridge Mtns of GA, TN & NC as well as the Smoky Mtns with several inches and heavy at times through Thursday night and Friday morning.
Because of the varying rate of rain/snow change across the area and amounts, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team for updates throughout the day.
WHAT ABOUT DRIVING CONDITIONS?
Higher elevations could drop to the freezing mark faster through the afternoon and roadways could become very slick. So, please use caution at higher elevations Thursday afternoon and night. Valley locations should be primarily wet even with the snowflakes through late afternoon as temperatures should stay just above freezing. However, after sunset, temperatures could quickly drop below freezing at allow for icy spots to develop. Overnight temperatures Thursday night should drop into the mid 20s. Caution is advised for traveling Thursday night.
FINALLY!...SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY
Any problems with wintry conditions should end after Friday morning. Sunshine is expected throughout the day with highs in the mid/upper 40s. 20s again Friday night, then sunny to partly sunny and low/mid 50s Saturday! Mostly dry through the extended period. But, much colder air could move in by Monday with highs possibly dropping to the 30s again.
Again, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team for updates throughout the day.
David Glenn
Winter Remains On Hold For Now
01/09/13
Many of you are double checking the calendar just to make sure that really is January considering how warm it is and will continue to be. Winter remains on hold for now with more seasonal temperatures not expected until some time late next week.
SOGGY & WARM THROUGH FRIDAY
Rainfall amounts should remain light, but the off and on nature of showers will continue through Friday. Otherwise, expect a cloudy sky with high temperatures in the mid/upper 60s both Thursday and again Friday. Shower chances should taper off late Friday and into Friday Night.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
An unseasonably warm pattern will continue through the weekend. We will be in between weather systems, so the rain chances will remain small. The big story will be the fact that temperatures could be near record high levels. Highs on Saturday could reach around 70 and even low 70s. The record high for Saturday is 71 from way back in 1890. 70-72 possible again Sunday, but the record high that day is 74 from 1960. Temperatures should gradually cool away from these record levels into next week as rain chances increase.
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
A continuous stream of Gulf moisture could move across the Southeast and Tennessee Valley Monday through Wednesday of next week. This could result in some heavy rainfall locally. A quick scan of global forecast model data shows the possibility of rain in the 2"-4" range across the Southeast region. The bulk of that possible Monday through early Wednesday. Temperatures should also start to cool a bit, though still above seasonal levels through midweek. Highs cooling to the 50s through Wednesday with lows likewise cooling back to the 40s.
MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK
Winter feeling temperatures could return for late next week as morning temperatures could drop back to near 32 by next Friday and Saturday morning. Neither of the global models show a strong Arctic invasion as of yet for the Southeast/Tennessee Valley. But, next weekend should feel more like it should be for this time of year.
Longer range signals still show the possibility of a more seasonal pattern continuing through late month. So, don't put away those winter coats just yet, we still have a long way to go until Spring. Snow lovers out there I'm sure are not liking this pattern. But, again, we are still early in the season and snow chances locally can happen well into March. I like snow and as always, I'll keep you posted on even the remotest chance locally as the season goes on!
David Glenn
2012 Local Weather Stats & A Look Ahead To January
01/01/13
2012 ended up being a warmer and just a slightly drier year for the Tennessee Valley. Rainfall for the year totalled 50.78" which was just 1.70" below average. Temperatures were quite warm, especially during the 1st half of the year followed by a cooler than average second half of the year. But, if you totalled the average temperature for each month, we ended up with an average temperature of 63.5 degrees for the 12 month period. Compared to average, this was about 2.7 degrees above average. The coldest temperature for 2012 locally was 19 degrees which occurred on both January 4th and February 12th. The hottest temperatures was an all time record breaking 107 degrees which occured on consecutive days of June 30th and July 1st.
Aside from the temperature and rainfall data, 2012 will also be remembered for a couple of other weather events. The March 2nd tornadoes that brought destruction to Harrison & surrouding communities was a devastating start to the Spring season for an already weary region because of the 2011 tornadoes. On July 5th, widespread wind damage again occurred across the viewing area, but not from a tornado. Instead, this was from a gust front that was caused by a collapsing line of storms to our north, Wind damage resembled that of what tornadoes could do.
DRYING OUT AFTER A WET START TO 2013
Most areas locally had a good soaking of rain on New Years Day. Rainfall amounts range from 0.70" to 1.10" locally. Drier and seasonably cold air will move in before sunrise Wednesday allowing for temperatures to dip into the mid 30s, but near 32 on the mountaintops. With some leftover moisture, there could be a few areas across the higher elevations that could have a brief period of flurries or even some freezing rain. So, be aware that some icy spots are possible along the higher terrain through early Wednesday morning. The rest of Wednesday should be dry, but seasonably chilly with highs in the mid/upper 40s. Morning clouds should give way to some afternoon sun. Clouds should try and move back in from the south and east Wednesday night and into Thursday. Most areas locally should stay dry, but some sprinkles are possible over the eastern mountains.
A TAD COLDER FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND.
The passage of another cold front should provide a chilly day Friday with breezy conditions and afternoon highs only in the low/mid 40s. This should be a dry front with precip chances very low. Temperatures should dip into the mid 20s Friday night. By Saturday, temperatures should recover just a little bit with upper 40s by afternoon but along with more cloud cover. A slight chacne of rain could occur early Sunday, but otherwise cloudy with upper 40s again. Much milder air moves in for early next week with low/mid 50s possible next Tuesday and Wednesday.
SNOW CHANCES ON HOLD FOR NOW
With the arrival of January comes the increased interest of our local snow chances. Other than a brief wintry mix early Wednesday morning, local snow chances look pretty slim through the rest of this week and even most of next week. A strong ridge of high pressure along the Southeast coast is being projected by many of the global models pointing to a period of milder conditions across the region. The NOAA 30 day outlooks projected an above normal January for temperatures over the Southeast and Tennessee Valley along with above normal rain chances, Typically, this does not mean it will be warm and wet everyday, but what the "average" could be by months end. So, even though January could have a milder start, there is always the chance that the patterns could reverse. Time will be the determing factor of that. So, while snow chances remain low in the short term, there is still a lot of winter yet to to go. Only time will tell....and we will be here to tell you about it!
David Glenn
2013 Starts Wet Locally
12/31/12
A wet start to 2013 can be expected across the Tennessee Valley. Just as we ring in the new year, rain chances will increase locally and continue throughout the day New Years Day. Model forecast data indicates that possibly over an inch of rain could fall before ending Tuesday night. Seasonal temperatures should follow for the rest of the shortened work week. High temperatures should stay in the 40s through Wednesday with lows in the mid/upper 30s. By Thursday, just a brief rise to near 50 by the afternoon before some colder air moves in for the end of the week and the weekend. A breezy Friday with low/mid 40s by afternoon and 20s both Friday and Saturday morning. A nice warming trend should follow by late weekend and early the following week with highs in the 50s.
The Weekend & Christmas Outlook
12/21/12
Happy Winter! As expected, the new season felt like it should on the first day....COLD!
SEASONAL WEEKEND
Temperatures Saturday morning should be quite cold in the low/mid 20s. Full sunshine and not as windy through the afternoon with high temperatures in the mid/upper 40s. A clear sky follows for Saturday evening, then a few clouds for late in the overnight hours. It will still be cold Saturday night with low temperatures in the upper 20s. Increasing cloud cover for Sunday and slightly milder with afternoon temperatures reaching the low 50s. A chance for rain is possible by late day. A better chance for some showers through Monday morning (Christmas Eve)
CHRISTMAS EVE & DAY OUTLOOK
Overall, it still looks like a soggy pattern. However, there does appear to be some breaks from time to time. Cloudy skies expected both days. Mainly off and on showers Christmas Eve with afternoon temperatures in the mid 50s. Some breaks in the showers through late Christmas Eve night and into Christmas morning with a cloudy sky and a low in the 40s. Christmas Day still looks cloudy and from time to time a passing shower. Better chances late day and into the night. Afternoon temperatures could reach the lower 50s Christmas afternoon. Again, a better coverage for rain locally through Christmas night and into Wednesday.
TURNING COLDER JUST AFTER CHRISTMAS
The day after Christmas, Wednesday, looks wet and eventually colder. Periods of rain through the morning hours and spilling over into the afternoon. Colder air could also begin to move in and drop temperatures through the 40s and 30s by late afternoon. There remains the possibility that the rain could end as a period of flurries or snow showers late Wednesday afternoon and night. Typically, these "wrap around" type of wintry events do not produce a lot of accumulation, expect lightly at higher elevations. Nevertheless, the StormTrack 9 Team will be keeping an eye on this in the days ahead.
COLDER LONG RANGE
Finally, it looks like the cold air may stick around for a while as colder air moves in during the middle of next week. Daily highs could average just a tad below average in the 40s for highs and lows in the 20s through next weekend. The following week being the first week of 2013 could also exhibit below average temperatures. Which of course means that we will have to start watching for any moisture to move back again. As always, use caution when watching long range computer model forecasts beyond 7-10 days. There tends to always be a wintry event set up in those long range projections. As I always urge, take it one day at a time and watch for model consistency. Winter has just begun and as always, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team to keep you updated!
SEE YOU NEW YEAR'S EVE!!!!
My vacation starts on Saturday, so it's time for the holidays and family! I will be back on the air Monday, New Year's Eve. Bill Race and Jason Disharoon will keep you updated! I wish you and your family all the best during this holiday season!
David Glenn
Winter Arrives Right On Time!
12/20/12
Winter officially begins Friday morning at 6:12amET. And, right on cue, temperatures will be winter-like!
WINDY & COLD FRIDAY
A strong west-northwest wind will continue through the day Friday. Wind gusts could exceed 30mph at times (especially higher elevations). Some flurries could fly early along the higher terrain, but no problems are expected. Some light accumulation is possible at the higher peaks of the Blue Ridge & Smoky Mtns. The rest of the viewing area should have sunshine returning, but high temperatures Friday should only reach the low/mid 40s (30s mountains). The Wind Chill throughout the day will vary from the 20s & 30s.
Much colder Friday night with low temperatures dipping to the low/mid 20s.
A DRY & SEASONAL WEEKEND
The weather conditions look good for you last minute shoppers! The weekend will start off quite cold with temperatures Saturday morning in the low/mid 20s. Full sunshine through the afternoon with a high in the upper 40s. Cold again Saturday night with a low in the upper 20s. Slightly milder Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds and temperatures by the afternoon in the low 50s. Not quite as cold Sunday night with upper 30s.
COOL, SOGGY CHRISTMAS EVE & DAY
The pattern continues to look cloudy with milder temperatures from Christmas Eve through Christmas Day. From time to time, we can expect some passing showers through that time. Morning lows should be in the 30s Monday morning, then rise to the 50s by Christmas Eve afternoon. Christmas Day continues to look cloudy with again some periods of passing rain showers. Expect a morning low in the low 40s and an afternoon high in the low 50s.
SOME FLAKES NEXT WEEK?
The slow moving system that could bring some rain Christmas Day could produce even more rain Christmas night and into Wednesday. As the rain ends Wednesday, colder air could mix in soon enough to possibly allow a period of snow showers before ending later Wednesday night. It's way too soon to speculate on any accumulation if at all. But, for those of you wishing for some snow, there is at least the possibility by midweek next week. So, while there may not be any songs about a white "day after" Christmas, the possibility is there. Of course, we will have more updates in the days ahead.
David
Rain & Storms Thursday.....Windy & Colder Friday
12/18/12
Another beautiful day is on tape for Wednesday across the Tennessee Valley. Expect a chilly morning in the 30s, but by afternoon sunshine will help boost temperatures to the low/mid 60s. A few high clouds by late afternoon, but clouds will rapidly move in Wednesday night with low temperatures only dropping to the 40s.
RAIN & STORMS FOR THURSDAY
A fast moving storm system will bring an abrupt end to our nice weather Thursday. Most of the day will be cloudy with rain developing. A few thunderstorms are possible. There is a "Slight Risk" of severe storms across the region Thursday with the highest risk for gusty winds along a possible line of thunderstorms during the late morning to afternoon time frame. The threat of rain and storms rapidly diminishes Thursday evening.
As the cold front approaches and passes, strong wind gusts will be possible. The wind should shift from the southwest to the northwest at 15-25mph and gusty.
WINDY & MUCH COLDER FRIDAY
Winter officially begins at 6:12am Friday morning. And, it will feel like it! For those of you wanting some seasonal chill, Friday is your day! Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 40s with the wind chill feeling like the 30s throughout the day. Some flurries or patches of light snow could fly across the higher terrain (especially Smoky & Blue Ridge Mtns) Friday morning. No problems are expected locally, but the higher peaks of the Smokies could be a sugar coating! By Friday night, expect a lighter wind and temperatures dipping to the mid 20s.
DRY SEASONAL WEEKEND
The upcoming weekend looks dry and seasonal. Sunny Saturday, then partly sunny Sunday. Each morning will be down right cold with temperatures in the mid/upper 20s. Daily highs will be near 50 Saturday (40s mountains) and low/mid 50s Sunday.
CHRISTMAS EVE & DAY OUTLOOK
The pattern through Christmas Day looks increasingly wet. It all depends on the speed of a strong storm system moving out of the Plains states. "If" the timing works out like computer models project, then it's possible that we could see increasing clouds Christmas Eve with a few showers possible late. High temperatures on Christmas Eve could reach the low/mid 50s by afternoon.
"If" the current projections hold, then Christmas Day could be wet across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Temperatures could hold in the upper 40s/lower 50s through the day. This wet pattern could continue through Wednesday and possibly early Thursday of next week.
Of course, more details in the days ahead! Longer range model projections still show a possible much colder pattern for late next week and beyond.
David
Nice Weather Returns....Colder Air Still On Tap For Late Week
12/17/12
The Tennessee Valley had a good soaking rainfall from Saturday night through Monday Evening. Rainfall totals at Lovell Field during that period was around 1.35". Drier air should move in through Tuesday morning.
LOOKING GOOD TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY
High pressure takes over for Tuesday and Wednesday. The result will be some nearly perfect weather for you last minute Christmas shoppers! Sunny for Tuesday and quite mild with afternoon temperatures in the mid/upper 50s. Even better for Wednesday with sunshine again and afternoon temperatures soaring into the mid 60s!
WET AGAIN THURSDAY
Another storm system approaches the Tennessee Valley Thursday creating another good chance for rain throughout the day. Some t-storms are again possible as the cold front rolls through late day. Early computer model projections forecast rainfall amounts between 0.45"-0.75". Of course a few spots could have more because of some isolated t-storms. The bulk of the rain falling during the day Thursday and ending late day.
MUCH COLDER FRIDAY....(A FEW FLAKES?)
Colder air moves in behind the cold front late Thursday night through Friday. This should drop temperatures into the 30s by Friday morning and only allow high temperatures to reach the 40s Friday afternoon. It is possible for a few periods of flurries or patchy light snow as the cold air moves in. This is not a scenario for accumulating snow though. Any chance of this remains brief and confined to higher elevations and not cause any problems. Just more of a seasonal feel to the air.
The upcoming weekend of Saturday and Sunday looks dry and seasonal with daily highs in the low/mid 50s and morning lows in the 20s & 30s.
CHRISTMAS OUTLOOK
Still a week away, but I still get so many questions :) Christmas Eve looks dry with increasing clouds and a high in the low 50s after a morning low in the 30s. Christmas Day could swing from just cloudy to cloudy with a cold rain developing. This all depends on the speed of a developing storm system that 7 days out could still speed up or slow down. High temperatures could stay in the 40s. Again, things can still change over the next few days and I will continue to keep you updated in the days ahead.
The longer range pattern toward the end of the month and start of January still looks gradually colder. Only time will tell!
David
A Mild Weekend, But The Longer Range Looks Colder
12/14/12
The third weekend of December will again be a little warmer than normal as a southerly flow sets up across the Southeast and Tennessee Valley. Rain chances should be increasing again especially by Saturday night and into Sunday. Model rainfall amounts are starting to pick up a bit with the possibility of heavy rain with 1"-2" locally in the time frame from Saturday night through midday Monday. Temperatures should stay mild with highs near 60 on Saturday under a cloudy sky and low 60s possible Sunday.
NEXT WEEK OUTLOOK:
The upcoming work week should start off wet with rain Monday morning, but ending through the afternoon. Low 60s will again be possible Monday as the rain ends. A break in the rain on Tuesday and Wednesday with lingering clouds and more seasonal temperatures with afternoon highs in the 60s and morning lows in the 30s. Another chance of rain could return Thursday through early Friday. High temperatures should be in the upper 50s Thursday, then much colder air moves in Friday with temperatures falling through the 40s throughout the day.
NEXT WEEKEND
Right now, next weekend looks colder as the upper level pattern changes across the US. A dry, cold pattern could evolve for the weekend with daily highs possibly only reaching the 40s with lows in the 20s & 30s.
CHRISTMAS OUTLOOK
Christmas Eve & Day are still 10 days away as of this post, so there could still be some changes along the way. But, the overall pattern projected by a majority of computer models continues to look colder than normal. Long range models continue to throw out there some potential wintry weather systems following Christmas. As with any long range model projection, there will be changes, so for now, we'll just continue to watch the pattern which looks cold locally. More details in the days ahead.
David
Looking Ahead....And A Few Words About Long Range Computer Models
12/11/12
As we approach mid December, I start getting a lot of questions about the Christmas Day forecast. Thanks to this age of technology that we live in, various national forecasting companies tout their 15 & even 30 day forecasts. While admirable in theory, the problem is that a lot of times these long range forecasts tend to rotate around one forecast model...typically the GFS model. So, as a lot of folks look ahead to Christmas Day, these long range forecasts will show a cold Christmas forecast one day, only to project a mild Christmas the very next day. Likewise with precipitation, a wet Christmas forecast is followed up by a dry one.
This of course starts the flow of email to my inbox. People want to know what to expect. So, that is the subject of today's blog post. As I always caution when looking at longer range forecasts, you have to take it with a grain of salt. What I tend to do is look at the overall pattern instead of the day to day model forecasts in the long range. As for the next two weeks, with the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation remaining in the negative, it tends to signal a colder pattern. The longer range projections of both the European (ECMWF) and US (GFS) are starting to show signs of a colder overall pattern settling in for the East and Southeast US...which includes the Tennessee Valley.
So, then the next question is.....If it's colder, what about snow? Well, in the short range (next 7 days), there is a slight chance of some flakes on the back side of a wet system early next Wednesday. That is a "Wrap around" scenario if it occurred which does not bring a lot of local accumulation. Now, beyond that time and toward Christmas, the models show a few system approaching which "could" get interesting "if" they even developed at all. You see, it's pure speculation and model fantasy world beyond 7 days. But, what the models are hinting at, is that a colder overall pattern could be on the horizon. Therefore, this time of year, you have to be watchful for precipitation with cold air in place. And, you also have to take weather forecasting one system at a time and leave it at that.
I'll keep you posted on the upcoming Christmas Eve & Day forecast in the days ahead!
David Glenn
The 2012-2013 Tennessee Valley Winter Outlook
11/20/12
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WINTER OUTLOOK 2012-2013.....(Posted November 20, 2012)
This is one of my favorite times of the year. I enjoy studying past patterns and weather events, especially the memorable winter ones. Before I am embark on the study and research for the winter outlook I give credit to my college professors in climatology who stressed, "look to the past to look to the future". I have never forgotten that and in looking at past similar patterns will hopefully provide the key that unlocks the outlook for the next 3 1/2 months!
So, as we approach the winter of 2012-2013 we are currently in a global pattern that is different from the past 2 winters. Those winters were dominated by a La Nina (Super La Nina in fact). The winter of 2010-2011 was a colder version of a La Nina while the 2011-2012 version was warmer. This year, the equatorial Pacific pattern is that of a weak El Nino. Now, unlike the 1980s & 1990s with strong El Nino's, this one is different and much weaker. The other two factors are the still colder Pacific pattern (PDO) and warmer Atlantic pattern (AMO). The PDO/AMO are unchanged from the past two winters.
You have to keep in mind that there are no set parameters for creating a seasonal forecast. Many forecasting agencies use different methods. But, they are heavily weighted on studying past patterns with the PDO/AMO/El Nino/La Nina being dominant. And, that is also what I do! Studying past patterns of a Weak El Nino along with a cold PDO and warm AMO enabled me to see some similarities in past patterns here in the Tennessee Valley.
Compiling this past data had some similar winters from the 1960s & 1970s along with a few more recent winters in 2003 & 2006. With the exception of the winter of 2006, all of these winters exhibited temperatures that were below normal. Here is another interesting stat, 4 of the 6 patterns that closely matched this year had winter temperatures locally that dipped below 10 degrees. Overall precipitation patterns were also largely consistent with normal to below normal precipitation (rain & snow combined). But, before you toss out the sled, here is another interesting stat. Each of the past winter patterns that closely matched this year had measurable snowfall. Our average seasonal total is only 4.8 inches but the past patterns were close to that average. The risk of ice was also present, especially when looking at the pattern of 1972-1973. That was the winter of one of the worst ice storms in the Tennessee Valley. I remember that one very well as a 5 year old in Chickamauga!
One other feature that I study during the Autumn months is the overall upper level pattern and storm tracks. This can often times predict the storm paths/tracks through the upcoming winter. "If" this Autumns upper level pattern continues, then it could mean a few snow/ice threats could be on the horizon.
Now, even after researching past similar seasons you have to keep in mind that NO two winters are exactly alike. There may be similarities, but never exactly the same. Also, one of the other factors that we study year round and especially during the winter months is the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). These indexes or oscillations can help predict future arctic outbreaks or mild patterns. Unfortunately, these oscillations cannot be projected months in advance. Instead, we can peek into the future about 1-2 weeks in advance. These two oscillations were a huge influence during the very cold, snowy winter of 2010-2011. So, this will be an index that I will monitor and blog about through the season.
And, yes, I did track the local fogs in August (we had a few), spotted the wooly worms, and saw some fat squirrels running around during the Fall. I always take into consideration folklore as to never leave a stone unturned!
So, the outlook for this winter is leaning heavily on past statistics. This winter should not be anything like last year. It looks like a colder than normal winter can be expected locally. December could start that trend as colder air may not wait long to roll in. I also like our snowfall chances this year. We could have above normal chances for ice/snow through the season. This could mean several "borderline"scenarios of snow/ice/rain. Meaning that some frustrating, anxious days of forecasting could be ahead. Since we could be in that borderline scenario, our chances for ice could increase as well. I don't know about you, but I would take snow any day over ice! Our yearly average for snow is only 4.8", and I think we could at least reach that (possibly more if these patterns persist).
Overall precipitation (rainfall) should lean close to normal. So, hopefully we won't head into Spring with a huge rainfall deficit like the past few years. This could be an interesting season, because past stats have trended at or just below normal.
So, there ya go! I absolutely enjoy doing this every year. And, we'll do a mid season update in late January or so to see how the season is progressing. Please keep in mind that no matter what past seasonal stats indicate or computer models we track show......the weather is going to do what it wants to do!
The most popular question I get starting in October is, "will we have a White Christmas?". Well, statistically we have annual chance of between 15%-20%. So, that's about all you can project this far out. Personally, I hope we do have another one. We all sure had fun in 2010 didn't we? :)
No matter what comes our way this season, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team to provide you with forecast updates and the best storm coverage. Our motto is "You Can Depend On Us" and you can bank on it!
David Glenn
Weekend & Thanksgiving Outlook
11/16/12
***StormTrack 9 Annual Winter Forecast Tuesday (20th) at 6pm & 11pm***
The weekend continues to look dry with seasonal temperatures. And, the nice weather could stick around through Thanksgiving!
A strong dome of high pressure will dominate the weather pattern of the Southeast through early next week. Sunny Saturday with a cold start in the low 30s, but by afternoon temperatures should reach the low 60s (50s mountains). Clear Saturday Night with low.mid 30s. Then, sunny to partly sunny Sunday as some clouds move in with afternoon temperatures again in the low/mid 60s.
The pattern for early next week continues to look dry. A mix of sun and clouds Monday with low 60s. Skies should become cloudy Tuesday with just a slight chance of rain and temperatures again in the low 60s. The big travel day Wednesday locally looks dry with highs again in the 60s. The outlook for Thanksgiving Day continues to look dry with 60s as well. No big chill for you early shoppers Friday morning. Lows will be in the 40s with highs Friday back again in the 60s.
Look further ahead, long range computer models continue to hint at some much colder air spilling in by the end of the month and start of December. Time will tell.....
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEATHER
Elon at UTC 2pmET Sunny with low 60s.
UT at Vanderbilt 7pmET Clear with 40s & 50s
Ga Southern at UGA 1:30pmET Sunny with low 60s.
W.Carolina at Alabama 12:20pmET Sunny with low 60s.
Alabama A&M at Auburn 2pmET Sunny with mid 60s.
Duke at Georgia Tech 3:30pmET Sunny with low 60s.
MTSU at South Alabama 3:30pmET Sunny with mid/upper 60s.
NFL SUNDAY TAILGATING WEATHER
Titans have a bye this week
Arizona at Atlanta 1pm (Georgia Dome)....Sunny with 50s for tailgating outside Sunday morning and early afternoon.
David Glenn
A Wet Start To The Week
11/11/12
***The StormTrack 9 Annual Winter Forecast Will Be On November 20th at 5:30pm*** After a gorgeous, warm weekend for November, a cold front will approach the Tennessee Valley Monday and usher in some rain followed by cooler temperatures. A cold front will move through the Southeast and Tennessee Valley during the day Monday. Showers and even a few thunderstorms will develop and in advance of the front. The chance for severe storms remains low, but as always we will keep an eye on that! Some good soaking rainfall could result especially from late morning and into the afternoon. Computer model rainfall estimates range on average form 0.70"-1.00" locally. Most shower activity should quickly end Monday night. A dry pattern should settle in through Thursday, but it will be a bit chilly Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday should be both breezy and chilly as afternoon temperatures are held in the 50s and a brisk NW wind making it feel colder. Temperatures could dip to near the freezing mark by Wednesday morning followed by another afternoon in the 50s (but not as breezy). Thursday looks really nice with a chilly morning in the 30s, but then a sunny afternoon around 60. Some showers could return late Friday and into Saturday, Highs both days back in the low 60s. The longer range projections are looking a bit chilly beyond next week. A colder pattern could be evolving for the eastern half of the US, while the western half warms. The latest 8-14 day temperature outlook provides some clues. Click Here for the 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook David Glenn
Election Day Chill
11/05/12
As Election Day 2012 approaches, it looks a bit chilly locally!
A fast moving system coming in from the northwest will keep temperatures a little below normal locally for Tuesday, Election Day. Patchy areas of rain starting during the overnight hours and into Tuesday morning. The periods of rain should continue during the morning, but then taper off. This should leave us with a cloudy and chilly afternoon as temperatures only reach the mid 50s. Yet, another system rolls through Tuesday night which could again provide some patchy areas of rain late Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Again, this should keep temperatures below normal with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s.
Sunshine returns for Thursday along with a gradual warming trend. Upper 50s and sunny Thursday afternoon, then mid/upper 60s Friday afternoon. At this point, the upcoming weekend looks warmer with daily highs in the upper 60s to as high as 70 with morning lows in the 30s & 40s.
This slightly warmer than normal trend could continue into the long range. Overall, the next 7-14 days could have temperatures below normal in the Western US and slightly above normal in the Southeast & Eastern US.
Click Here for the latest 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook
Click Here for the latest 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
David
Weekend & Long Range Outlook
11/02/12
A warm afternoon for the start of the first weekend of November, but temperatures should cool back to seasonal levels next week.
Temperatures early Saturday morning should be nippy in the upper 30s. But, expect a rapid warm up with temperatures reaching the low/mid 70s by afternoon (60s mountains). After a sunny start to the day, clouds should begin to stream in during the afternoon. By Saturday night, a weak system approaches the Tennessee Valley. This could provide a few showers late Saturday night through Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts look light with this system. Temperatures through early Sunday morning should only drop to near 50.
Sunday morning starts a little soggy with a few showers moving through, but the shower activity should not last all day. Mainly cloudy and drier through the afternoon with high temperatures easing back a bit to the mid 60s. Drier conditions should settle in for Sunday night and into Monday. Cooler temperatures can be expected with a low near 40 Monday morning and only near 60 by Monday afternoon.
There could be a few showers moving back in for Election Day Tuesday. But, it does not appear to be anything heavy nor severe. Temperatures by Tuesday afternoon should be near 60.
The longer range outlook has the Tennessee Valley having temperatures at or above normal starting late next week and through the 10th.
Click Here for the Latest 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook from NOAA
Click Here for the Latest 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook from NOAA
The NOAA forecast for November has warm conditions expected over the western & central US. But, here in the Tennessee Valley it's the "EC or Equal Chances" category. Meaning that our temps could swing both above and below normal. So, what could begin as a warm conditions into the 10-15th, could then cool below normal for late week. But, only time will tell.
Click Here for the NOAA November Temperature Outlook
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEATHER
Troy at Tennessee 12pmET: Sunny to partly sunny with low/mid 60s.
Ole Miss at Georgia 3:30pmET: Partly sunny with 60s and low 70s.
UTC at Western Carolina 3:30pmET: Partly sunny with 60s.
Sewanee at Trinity (TX) 1pmET: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of t-showers & low 80s.
Alabama at LSU 8pmET: Cloudy with a few late evening showers with 60s & 70s.
Georgia Tech at Maryland 12:30pmET: Sunny with low 50s.
Vanderbilt at Kentucky 12pmET: Cloudy with 50s.
New Mexico State at Auburn 12:30pmET: Partly sunny with 70s.
SUNDAY NFL WEATHER
Bears at Titans 1pmET: Clouds for tailgating & near 50. Partly cloudy during the game & upper 50s.
Cowboys at Falcons 8pmET (Inside the Georgia Dome). Late afternoon tailgating could have some showers with 60s.
David Glenn
Freezing Temperatures Possible
10/30/12
The possibility of temperatures near the freezing mark exists for Wednesday and Thursday morning.
The average date for a first freeze in Chattanooga is November 1st. So, if the freezing temps do occur, it's right on schedule! The earliest freeze in Chattanooga occurred on October 14, 1987.
The wind speeds should gradually die down later Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. This, along with a slow clearing of the sky should allow local temperatures to dip into the 30s. Temperatures in Chattanooga should reach the mid 30s, but areas outside the city (especially north and east) could have temperatures at or below 32 by Wednesday morning. By Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, the combination of a clear sky and light wind will allow temperatures in the city to reach near 32 and near 30 away from the city.
Now is the time to make preparations to protect any plants that are susceptible to freezing temperatures.
A warming trend begins after Thursday morning. Temperatures by Thursday afternoon should reach the upper 50s to near 60, then mid 60s Friday. By the weekend, afternoon temperatures should return to the upper 60s and even near 70 in a few local spots.
David Glenn
A Colder Weekend Ahead & Tracking "Sandy"
10/26/12
The coldest air of the season so far will move into the Tennessee Valley this weekend and continue next week. While this is big weather news locally, the big story nationally is the track of Hurricane Sandy.
Here are some links to stay up to date on the latest with "Sandy"
Click Here for the latest update from the National Hurricane Center
Click Here for the latest forecast track of Sandy
Click Here for Local Weather Statements from areas affected by Sandy
Click Here for the wind probability map
The only byproduct locally from "Sandy" for the Tennessee Valley will be the arrival of cold air being pulled to the south. The chilly should become noticeable by Saturday morning with temperatures in the low 50s. There could be a little light rain or passing light shower early, but then a cloudy and breezy day can be expected. Afternoon temperatures should struggle to get out of the 50s along with a brisk north wind at 10-20mph. Saturday night should be colder with a low near 40 under a cloudy sky.
Clouds should eventually clear out Sunday. But, even with a partly sunny sky afternoon temperatures should only reach the mid/upper 50s along with a north wind at 10-15mph. Frost will be possible late Sunday night and Monday morning as temperatures dip into the mid/upper 30s. Monday will also be cool with a partly sunny sky and temperatures during the afternoon only in the upper 50s.
The coldest morning could be Tuesday as low temperatures dip to the low/mid 30s. This means that some areas could experience their first freeze of the season. Most of next week should have afternoon temperatures in the upper 50s and lows in the 30s. Would could have some low 60s back by Thursday and Friday.
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEATHER
Georgia Southern at UTC 6pmET: Cloudy and breezy with 50s. GO MOCS!!!!!
Tennessee at South Carolina 12pmET: Cloudy with 60s.
Georgia vs Florida in Jacksonville 3:30pmET: Cloudy and windy with 60s & 70s (north wind at 25-35mph)
Rhodes at Sewanee 2:30pmET: Cloudy, breezy and quite cool with 50s.
Mississippi St at Alabama 8:30pmET: Cloudy and breezy with 50s.
BYU at Georgia Tech 3pmET: Cloudy and breezy with 60s.
UMass at Vanderbilt 7pmET: Cloudy, breezy and cold with 40s.
North Texas at MTSU 3:30pmET: Cloudy and breezy with 50s.
Texas A&M at Auburn 7pmET: Cloudy with 50s & 60s.
SUNDAY NFL WEATHER
Colts at Titans 1pmET: Partly sunny and breezy with 40s & 50s for tailgating, then 50s throughout the game.
Falcons at Eagles 1pmET: Rainy and windy with 50s to near 60.
David Glenn
Weekend Outlook (Oct 20-21)
10/19/12
The "dust" should settle through the start of the weekend, but some clouds should move back in as well.
A strong low pressure system over the Great Lakes is responsible for the "Dust Storm" that developed in the Plains states that moved over the Tennessee Valley Friday. The severe drought conditions in the Plains has resulted in loose soil that was easily picked up by the strong surface wind Thursday and then transported our way on Friday. The dust should eventually clear out through Saturday as the low pressure system shifts east and stops the "plume" of dust flowing in.
Clouds will also spread back in during the predawn hours Saturday. Variable cloud cover with some intervals of sun will be possible Saturday. Breezy at times Saturday, but not as strong as Friday. Afternoon temperatures will be just a tad cooler than normal with highs in the 60s. Skies should eventually clear Saturday night as temperatures dip to the lower 40s.
Sunday will start out chilly, but then quickly warm with sunshine and a southerly breeze. Afternoon temperatures should reach the lower 70s (still 60s on the mountains). This warming trend should continue well into next week with daily highs averaging in the mid/upper 70s Monday through Friday. Rain chances remain slim, so the dry pattern will still hold.
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEATHER
Alabama at Tennessee 7pmET: Cloudy and cool for tailgating. Even some sprinkles possible during the afternoon. Dry for the game, but cool with 50s.
Samford at UTC 6pmET. Cloudy with 60s for tailgating, then partly cloudy through the evening with 50s & 60s during the game.
Georgia at Kentucky 7pmET. Variable clouds and chilly with 50s at kickoff, then 40s for the second half.
Sewanee at Birmingham Southern 3pmET. A mix of clouds and sun with 60s to near 70.
Auburn at Vanderbilt 12:21pmET. Cloudy and cool with 50s & 60s. Some sprinkles or spotty light rain possible.
Boston College at Georgia Tech 3pmET. A mix of clouds and sun with 60s.
MTSU at Mississippi State 7pmET. A clear sky with 50s & 60s.
NFL SUNDAY WEATHER
Falcons are off this week.
Titans at Bills 1pmET. Morning showers, then cloudy, breezy and cool with mid/upper 50s.
David Glenn
Temperatures Trending Above Normal Next 7-14 Days
10/16/12
Overall, October 2012 has been quite seasonal. Temperatures through mid month have averaged 1.9 degrees below normal. We should have temperatures near normal through the end of the week and the upcoming weekend. But, the longer range trend the next 7-14 days indicates some slightly warmer than normal conditions.
The longer range computer models through the next two weeks tend to favor "ridging" in the upper atmosphere over the southern 1/3 of the US which includes the Tennessee Valley. This usually means that a warmer pattern can be expected. The maps below show the latest projections from the Climate Prediction Center which shows the above normal temperature trend. The map on the "left" is the 6-10 day temperature trend. The map on the "right" is the 8-14 day temperature trend.
David Glenn
Weekend Outlook (Oct 13-14)
10/12/12
Mid October is upon us and a warming trend can be expected for the weekend!
Since July's above normal temperatures in Chattanooga, temperatures have been below normal...August (3.6 degrees below normal)....September (0.6 degrees below normal)...October so far (3.6 degrees below normal). But, a bit of a warming trend returns for the upcoming weekend followed by seasonal temperatures returning next week.
A warm front should swing through the Tennessee Valley from the south Saturday. This should begin the warming trend. Patchy fog can be expected before and after sunrise on Saturday followed by a mix of sun and clouds for the rest of the day. Low 50s are expected Saturday morning, then warming quite a bit into the mid/upper 70s by afternoon (low 70s mountains). Much warmer than the afternoons of the past work week.
The slightly above normal temperatures should continue for Sunday. Clouds will continue to hang around and even increase in coverage through the afternoon. But, it should remain dry with afternoon temperatures reaching the mid 70s.
The next system to affect us should arrive Sunday night as showers creep back in. This will not be a long lasting chance of rain as the rain should end by midday Monday. This will be followed by some cooler and drier air for Monday night through Wednesday. In other words, perfect weather for a few days through midweek next week with daily highs near 70 (60s mountains) and morning lows in the 40s. Another round of rain should move in by Thursday.
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEATHER
Tennessee at Mississippi State 9pmET: Partly cloudy with 60s.
UTC at Furman 1:30pmET: Partly sunny & near 70.
Sewanee at Millsaps 3pmET: Partly sunny with mid/upper 80s.
MTSU at Florida International 6pmET: An isolated shower, otherwise partly cloudy & 80s.
Alabama at Missouri 3:30pmET: Scattered thunderstorms possible with upper 70s/lower 80s.
Auburn at Ole Miss 12:20pmET: Partly sunny & 80s.
Florida at Vanderbilt 6pmET: Partly cloudy with 60s.
SUNDAY NFL TAILGATING WEATHER
Oakland at Atlanta 1pm (Inside the Georgia Dome)...Tailgating conditions outside should be partly cloudy with 60s to near 70.
The Tennessee Titans are off Sunday because they played this past Thursday night defeating the Steelers 26-23!
David Glenn
Weekend Outlook & College Football Forecast
10/05/12
Cooler temperatures are on the way for the weekend!
Well, we have talked about it for days now, but cooler air is still on its way. A cold front will usher in some of the coolest air of the season so far. The front should move through Saturday morning. This should touch off a few passing light showers. This does not appear to be a big rain maker at all, but some pesky showers from time to time are possible. Temperatures will be in the low 70s briefly Saturday afternoon, then drop into the 60s. Most mountain locations should stay in the 60s throughout the day. A brisk northwest wind at 10-15mph can be expected and make it feel even cooler.
Much cooler Saturday night as temperatures drop to the upper 40s and lower 50s under a cloudy sky. Sunday looks cloudy, breezy and quite cool with temperatures only reaching the lower 60s (50s mountains). Like Saturday, a few passing showers are possible, though not the all day variety. Sunday night should be the coldest night of the season so far as temperatures dip into the lower 40s. Some higher elevated spots and northern locations could experience temperatures in the 30s. Some patchy frost is possible at those locations, especially the Cumberland Plateau.
The outlook for next week has a gradual warming and a mostly dry pattern. Afternoon temperatures should return to the 70s beginning Wednesday, with morning lows in the 40s and 50s. A few showers are possible by Friday.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEATHER FOR SATURDAY
(UTC, Tennessee & Alabama are off this week)
Georgia at South Carolina 7pmET: Partly cloudy with 70s, then 60s late game.
Centre at Sewanee 2pmET: Cloudy, breezy and cool with 60s and a slight chance for a few passing showers.
Louisiana-Monroe at MTSU 3:30pmET: Cloudy and cool with 50s. A few showers possible.
Vanderbilt at Missouri 7pmET: Cloudy and chilly with 40s.
Georgia Tech at Clemson 3:30pmET: Partly cloudy with 70s.
Arkansas at Auburn 12pmET: Partly sunny & 80s.
SUNDAY NFL WEATHER
Titans at Vikings (Inside the Metrodome) 4:25pmET
Falcons at Redskins 1pmET: Cloudy with rain likely. Quite cool with temperatures in the low 50s.
David Glenn
A Chill In The Air Soon!
10/03/12
A few more afternoons in the 80s through Friday, then a bit of chill will be in the air by the weekend!
First it was heavy rain Monday, then a persistent light rain/drizzle Tuesday. Then, the pesky cloud cover only slowly moved out Wednesday. So, it will be nice for a change to have some sunny days ahead Thursday and Friday. Each morning should be in the low 50s with some patchy fog, but temperatures should quickly warm to the low/mid 80s through Friday afternoon (70s mountains).
By Saturday, a cold front pushes through the Tennessee Valley. There could be some shower/t-shower activity, but there is not a whole lot of moisture with this system. Nevertheless, some showers will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening as the front eases through. It will still be warm Saturday with temperatures in the 70s during the afternoon.
Much cooler air moves in for Sunday behind the cold front. A brisk north-northwest wind should usher in the coolest air of the season so far. Afternoon temperatures should hover in the lower 60s (upper 50s mountains). By Sunday night, temperatures should dip into the middle 40s. Sunshine and a lighter breeze Monday, but daily highs should again stay in the 60s. The chilliest night looks to be Monday night as temperatures dip to the lower 40s. Some upper 30s are possible in wind protected areas away from the city and at higher elevations. A gradual warming trend follows with afternoons back in the 70s by midweek and lows warming to the 50s.
It's probably a good time to have your heating systems checked out. And, as always, please heat your home safely if you use space heaters and wood fireplaces!.
Click Here for the latest NOAA 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook (Below normal locally and areas north)
David Glenn
Weekend Outlook & A Wet Start To Next Week
09/28/12
The overall shower chances for the weekend remain in the slight category, so no big wash outs. But, by late Sunday and into Sunday night, some wash outs are possible and continues into Monday.
A warm and humid pattern should continue through this last weekend of September. There could be some isolated passing showers Saturday with the best timing during the early part of the day. But, a lot of areas might not even see a drop. Otherwise clouds mixing with some sun the rest of Saturday with temperatures reaching around 80s. Dry conditions for Saturday night with an overnight low near 60.
On Sunday, most of the day looks dry but with increasing clouds. A gradual increasing coverage of showers should move back in from the south by late day Sunday and through Sunday night. High temperatures on Sunday should be in the upper 70s Sunday afternoon as more clouds move in.
Some periods of moderate to heavy rain is possible late Sunday night and into Monday as an area of low pressure moves along the Gulf Coast. For coastal areas the effects could be similar to a tropical storm. For the Tennessee Valley, this means some tropical like rainfall to start the work week. Rainfall amounts could average between 1"-2" locally, but could be a bit higher in spots. Rain should taper off during the day Tuesday as the low pressure moves away.
Click Here for the NOAA 5 Day Rainfall Outlook (Most of this locally from late Sunday night through Tuesday morning)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEATHER
Tennessee at UGA 3:30pmET: A passing shower possible, otherwise cloudy to partly cloudy with temps around 80.
UTC at The Citadel 6pmET: Partly cloudy with low 80s.
Willamette at Sewanee 3pmET: Partly cloudy with an isolated shower & 70s.
Ole Miss at Alabama 9:15pmET: Cloudy with a few passing showers possible & 70s.
Arkansas at Auburn 12pmET: Partly cloudy, possibly an isolated shower & 80s.
MTSU at Georgia Tech 12pmET: Cloudy with upper 70s. A few showers possible.
Vanderbilt is off this week.
NFL SUNDAY WEATHER
Titans at Texans 1pmET: Reliant Stadium has a retractable roof. That is good because some heavy rain is possible in Houston Saturday and Saturday night. Rain diminishes Sunday, so some soggy tailgating outside the stadium Sunday morning with 70s.
Panthers at Falcons 1pmET in the Georgia Dome. Outside tailgating looks partly cloudy with 70s Sunday morning and early afternoon.
David Glenn
Longer Range Outlook
09/25/12
Cooler mornings have been quite enjoyable across the Tennessee Valley as we have seen a smooth transition into Autumn. The next 2 weeks should exhibit near average to even slightly above average temperatures heading into October.
The upper level "trough" or dip over the US East and Southeast that has brought a couple of round of cool air should be replaced by a "ridge" of high pressure. This should return temperatures to near seasonal levels locally and displace the cooler air just to our north and west. Afternoons could even reach the mid 80s for late this week, but then ease back to the upper 70s by the weekend and early next week.
Click Here for the latest 6-10 Day Temperature Trend from NOAA
Click Here for the latest 8-14 Day Temperature Trend from NOAA
Rain chances are not that high for the next two weeks. The best chance looks to be this coming Saturday, followed by a drier pattern for most of next week. It may not be until the following weekend (Oct 6th) before another round of showers occurs. This is not that unusual since mid September through October is typically the driest part of the year on average locally. That all starts to change as wetter patterns usually emerge locally in November.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has released the updated outlook for October. Overall, a warmer than average pattern is possible over a large part of the United States including the Tennessee Valley. What I am seeing from computer model guidance for the next 2 to 2 1/2 weeks falls in line with this idea as well. As for rainfall, statistically, the models keep the Tennessee Valley in the "equal chance" category for having above or below normal rainfall. Again, October is typically a dry month locally.
Click Here for the NOAA October Temperature Outlook
Click Here for the NOAA October Precipitation Outlook
The latest 90 day outlook for October through December keeps a slightly warmer than average pattern in place over a large part of the US as well. You have to take 90 day outlooks with a grain of salt though as a lot of seasonal transition occurs during this particular time period. As I mentioned in an earlier post, the upcoming winter should be colder than last winter, but the colder pattern may take a while to settle in (Jan & Feb). Again, more details on this in the weeks ahead.
Click Here for the NOAA 90 Day Temperature Outlook Oct-Dec
Click Here for the NOAA 90 Day Precipitation Outlook Oct-Dec
David Glenn
Welcome Autumn!
09/21/12
The long, hot summer has ended and Autumn officially begins Saturday morning at 10:49amET.
This first weekend of Autumn should feel quite seasonal. Saturday should be a warm day with afternoon temperatures still reaching around 80 with a mix of sun and clouds. A cold front should move through the Tennessee Valley keeping conditions breezy throughout the day. Only a small chance for a shower occurring with this front. The wind should shift from the west to the northwest at 10-20mph during the day.
After sunset Saturday evening, temperatures should drop fairly quickly. Expect an overnight low near 50 with a steady breeze from the north continuing. Some upper 40s are possible away from the city by Sunday morning. Sunday should be the first true day of Fall weather with sunshine, breezy conditions and afternoon temperatures only in the low 70s (60s mountains). A steady breeze will continue from the north at 10-15mph.
Sunday night should be the coolest night of the season so far with a clear sky and temperatures dipping to the mid 40s (low 40s mountains and away from the city). Dry and sunny again Monday with afternoon highs in the mid 70s. Afternoon temperatures should warm back to near 80 by Wednesday and low 80s late week. Mostly dry conditions for the upcoming week with the exception of a small chance of showers both Thursday and Friday.
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEATHER!
Appalachian State at UTC 6pmET: Partly cloudy and breezy with 70s, then 60s late game. (Near 80 for afternoon tailgating, then gradually cooler during the game). Go Mocs!
Akron at UT 7:30pmET: Partly cloudy and breezy with tailgating temps near 80, but cooling through the 60s as the evening continues.
Vandy at UGA 7:45pmET: Partly cloudy and breezy with tailgating temps in the 80s. 70s by kickoff, then 60s by the 4th qtr.
Sewanee at Austin College in Sherman, TX 1pmET. Sunny and hot with 80s.
Florida Atlantic at Alabama 5pmET: Partly cloudy and breezy with tailgating temps in the 80s, then cooling into the 70s by late game.
LSU at Auburn 7pmET: Partly cloudy and becoming breezy with tailgating temps in the 80s and game temps in the 70s.
Miami at Georgia Tech 3pmET: A mix of clouds and sun with 80s for the game and tailgating (at the Varisty!!!)
SUNDAY NFL WEATHER
Lions at Titans 1pmET: A beautiful day at LP Field with sunshine, a north breeze and temperatures in the 60s. Go Titans! Titan Up!
Falcons at Chargers 4pmET: Sunny in San Diego with temperatures in the 80s. Go Falcons! Rise Up!
David Glenn
A Nice Early Fall Pattern
09/19/12
The temperatures early Wednesday morning were the coolest for the Tennessee Valley since early June. Most areas were in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
It was a a little chillier in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park with Newfound Gap (ele 5000 ft) as 36 degrees. And, Mt LeConte, TN (ele 6400 ft) dipped to the freezing mark of 32 degrees.
This pattern should continue through Friday. Morning should remain mostly in the 50s, but the afternoons should be a little warmer with highs in the low 80s Thursday through Saturday. Another cold front approaches the Tennessee Valley Saturday. But, unlike the last front, the amount of rain should be much less. There could be a few showers/t-showers Saturday afternoon & evening as the front approaches, but again the coverage remains low. Behind the front will be another round of much cooler air. Highs on Sunday should drop back to the low/mid 70s along with a steady northwest wind. Upper 40s for lows both Monday and Tuesday mornings of next week. Daily highs mostly in the 70s with a dry first half of the upcoming week.
Fall officially begins Saturday!
Click Here for the 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook which shows below normal temperatures continuing for the Southeast and the Tennessee Valley.
David Glenn
2012 Rainfall Deficit Wiped Out By Record Rainfall
09/18/12
The heavy rainfall set a daily record on Tuesday and helped erase a yearly rainfall deficit!
The 2 day rainfall total was 5.72" at Lovell Field in Chattanooga. The total for just Tuesday since midnight was 3.65", That is a new daily record for September 18th shattering the old record of 1.82" back in 1966.
The 2012 total so far now stands at 38.28" which is now 0.66" above normal. We began the day Monday with a 4.79" rainfall deficit. It's amazing how much rain just one weather system can produce!
David Glenn
Weekend Outlook & College Football Forecast
09/14/12
More clouds should move in for the weekend with an eventual increase in showers by late Sunday and especially into Monday.
The last weekend of Summer should remain warm with mid 80s possible Saturday afternoon. A mix of clouds and sun through the day. There is a slight chance for an isolated shower, especially over the Blue Ridge & Smoky Mtns along the Tennessee/North Carolina border. Partly cloudy through Saturday night with a low in the lower 60s.
Expect an increase in cloud cover Sunday. Some scattered showers are possible during the afternoon and evening hours. Afternoon high temperatures should reach the lower 80s (upper 70s mountains). A gradual increase in shower activity will be possible for Sunday night and especially into Monday.
Monday's rain chance could be accompanied by some thunderstorms as well which could result in some heavy downpours. Afternoon temperatures should be held down in the 70s. Off and on showers should continue Monday night and into early Tuesday. A cold front moves through during the day Tuesday which should gradually end the showers locally and bring in some drier and much cooler air. High temperatures by Wednesday should only be in the mid 70s with morning lows in the low/mid 50s.
College Football Weather Forecast for Saturday
Florida at Tennessee 6pm: Some isolated showers/t-showers possible, but otherwise partly cloudy with temperatures in the 70s during the game.
FAU at Georgia 7:30pm: Partly cloudy with 70s through the evening.
Alabama at Arkansas 3:30pmET: Scattered showers possible, otherwise cloudy with 70s.
Sewanee at Maryville 1:30pmET: Partly cloudy with an isolated afternoon t-shower & 70s.
Presbyterian at Vanderbilt 12:30pmET: Partly cloudy & 70s.
Virginia at Georgia Tech 3:30pmET: Partly cloudy & 80s.
MTSU at Memphis 7pmET: Scattered showers possible, otherwise cloudy & 70s.
Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn 12:20pmET: Partly cloudy & 80s.
Sunday NFL Forecast:
Titans at Chargers 4pmET: Sunny with upper 80s & lower 90s.
(Monday Night): Broncos & Falcons are in the climate controlled Georgia Dome!
David Glenn
Another Taste Of Autumn Air Could Arrive Next Week
09/13/12
After a muggy first week of September, the weather lately has been nearly perfect. Just as temperatures begin to warm up from a brief cool spell, there are signs that another surge of cooler air could arrive by the middle of next week.
Daily highs should creep back to the mid 80s Thursday and Friday, then ease back a few degrees over the weekend because of increased cloud cover. Showers could begin to move in late Sunday and especially into Monday. A cold front should move across the Tennessee Valley into Tuesday which should bring an end to the rain and begin another cooling trend.
This next cooling trend could be set up by a deepening upper level trough over the eastern half of the US. Both the US and European models are in general agreement with this during the mid/late stage of next week. This means that if this pattern does occur, then we could have high temperatures held down to the mid 70s by next Wednesday and Thursday along with morning temperatures again dipping into the 50s.
Follow these links below for a look at some model forecasts:
Click Here for the latest 8-10 Day European Model (ECMWF) showing that possible trough over the eastern half of the US including the Southeast.
Click Here for the latest 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook which shows a possible below normal temperature trend locally.
Click Here for the latest 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook which also shows a possible below normal temperature trend locally.
By the way, Autumn officially begins on Saturday September 22nd.
David Glenn
A Computer Model Long Range Outlook
09/10/12
Around this time of year, people begin asking about the upcoming winter. Whether it is the number of fogs in August, or the wooly worms as they start to appear in September, the main goal is trying to determine how severe the upcoming winter will be.
Last year, of course, was one of the warmest winter's we have ever had. But, lost in that hoopla nationwide was the fact that we had just experienced two back to back very cold, snowy winters. The ongoing La Nina pattern through last winter was largely responsible for the wild swings back and forth between the winters of 2011 and 2012. The La Nina has now faded and El Nino conditions are slowly building in the Pacific. Unlike those Super El Nino's in the 1980s & 1990s, the current version is a rather weak one so far, with only small signs of strengthening through the upcoming winter.
I will issue my annual winter forecast in mid November because I like to observe the patterns through Autumn which can really help narrow down the patterns for the four month period of December through March. So far, I am still favoring a winter that should be colder than last year and more in line with what we typically experience during the winter months here in the Tennessee Valley. But, we'll see how things transpire through Autumn.
So, for now, we can look at some long range computer model outlooks from the US model CFS - or Climate Forecast System. The CFS favors a mild Autumn and start to winter for October through December (and wetter at times). The model then indicates a possible colder than normal period of December through February, with possibly drier than normal conditions.
Here are some links to the CFS Model Maps:
CFS Model Temperatures October Through December (Near to Above Average Locally)
CFS Model Precipitation October Through December (Near to Above Average Locally)
CFS Model Temperatures January Through March (Near To Below Average Locally)
CFS Model Precipitation January Through March (Below Average Locally)
Please keep in mind that this is just one computer model and that the model data can shift back and forth as the patterns start to change through Autumn. I'll have updates through Autumn and of course the full seasonal forecast in November.
David Glenn
A Beautiful Week Ahead!
09/09/12
A nice taste of early Fall weather should continue for most of the upcoming work week!
A reinforcing shot of dry air should make its way into the Tennessee Valley through early Monday morning. This will keep the humidity low and temperatures quite comfortable. Expect a sunny sky each afternoon with only some high clouds mixing in from time to time. Afternoon temperatures should average in the low/mid 80s with mainly upper 70s mountains through Tuesday. Morning lows should average in the mid/upper 50s through Wednesday morning, then low 60s through Friday.
Humidity levels should rise just a bit by the start of the weekend. This, along with an approaching front by Saturday could result in some scattered showers both Saturday and Sunday. Computer models are not really handling that weekend system too well. So, just be aware that some scattered showers are possible, but don't cancel any outdoor plans just yet as it is still early in the week. You can depend on us for updates through the week!
David Glenn
A Stormy Start Saturday, But Fantastic For Sunday!
09/07/12
An approaching cold front should make for a wet and stormy start to Saturday.
Showers and storms should move into the viewing area during the time just before daybreak and continue sweeping through during the rest of the morning and early part of the afternoon. A line of storms like this can often have damaging wind gusts on the leading edge. So, it is possible that parts of the viewing area could have a period of time when a "Watch" or "Warning" could be in effect. So, please keep your weather radios turned on. Also, be sure to follow us on Facebook and Twitter to stay up to date.
The front should quickly move through so the storms should end over the entire viewing area through the mid stage of the afternoon. Drier and cooler air should move in late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Breezy conditions can be expected through the afternoon and evening hours as well as the wind shift occurs.
Temperatures should drop to the upper 50s by Sunday morning and even low/mid 50s north and mountains. Sunday should be fantastic with sunshine, low humidity and afternoon highs in the upper 70s to near 80. This dry pattern should continue through most of next week. Morning lows should average in the upper 50s to near 60 and afternoon highs returning to the mid 80s Tuesday through Friday.
David Glenn
August 2012 Weather Rewind
09/05/12
August 2012 is in the books and it will go down as a cooler and wetter. A nice change of pace from the previous summer months.
Let's start with the temperature category. The average temperature for August at Lovell Field was 78.3 degrees which was 1.1 degrees below the 30 year average. The hottest temperature was 96 on the 1st. The coolest temperature was 60 on the 12th (though a lot of areas away from the city had several mornings in the 50s).
August rainfall totaled 3.79" at Lovell Field which was just slightly above the 30 year average by 0.31". The wettest day of the month was on the 9th when 1.25" was received.
For the record, the hottest August in Chattanooga was in 2007 with an average temperature of 85.7 degrees. The coolest August was in 1992 with an average temperature of 73.5. The wettest August was in 1920 with a whopping 12.36" of rain. The driest, of course, was last year (2011) with only 0.01" received. August 2011 was followed just days later by the wettest day ever recorded on Labor Day.
Oh, and just in case you were wondering, here is the count of foggy morning's we had in August. Why does this category matter? It's just a fun piece of folklore that states that the number of fogs in August can give you an idea of the number of snow events for the upcoming winter. Honestly, this has never really worked out, but as a snow lover myself, it's always fun to count the days. So, here ya go....The number of days in August with fog reported at Lovell Field was 14. But, only once (on the 10th) was the fog considered dense reducing visibility under 1/4 mile. So, we'll just have to see if that actually correlates to anything this coming winter. My annual winter forecast will be issued in mid November.
David Glenn
The Labor Day Weekend & College Football Forecast
08/31/12
Here is the latest StormTrack 9 Labor Day Weekend Forecast
Saturday: Very humid with a mix of clouds and sun. Scattered showers/storms are possible at any point during the day. An afternoon high in the upper 80s (Heat Index in the mid 90s). A south wind at 10mph.
Saturday Night: An early evening t-shower possible, otherwise partly cloudy with with lower 70s.
Sunday: Very humid with a mix of sun and clouds. From time to time, some showers/t-showers could pop up. An afternoon high in the upper 80s (Heat Index in 90s)
Labor Day: Remaining very humid with a mix of clouds and sun. Periodically some showers/t-showers popping up with an afternoon high in the upper 80s (Heat Index in 90s)
A daily round of afternoon and evening t-showers will again be possible through Wednesday, then drier with fewer shower chances by late week. Temperatures should continue to average just above normal..
College Football Weather
UTC at South Florida - 7pm: Very humid with a passing early evening t-shower possible with 80s.
Puget Sound at Sewanee - 3pmET: Humid with a few pop up t-showers possible with 80s.
Buffalo at Georgia - 12:20pm Very hot and humid with a few passing t-showers, otherwise partly sunny & 90s.
Clemson at Auburn - 7pmET: In the Georgia Dome. For tailgating, quite humid with a few afternoon & early evening t-showers possible with 80s and lower 90s.
Alabama vs Michigan in Dallas - 8pm: In a dome (retractable roof), so no weather issues. But tailgaters outside will find it quite hot with afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s.
Good luck to all the teams....Go Mocs!...Yea Sewanee's Right!...Go Dawgs!...War Eagle!...Roll Tide!
David Glenn
"Isaac": It's Not Always About The Category
08/29/12
Over the past few days during my evening weathercasts, I have emphasized the fact that one should not focus just on the hurricane category to determine the true strength of a hurricane. The maximum wind strength category for Hurricane Isaac was Category 1. Major hurricanes are those that are Category 3 or higher (Ivan & Katrina). But, Isaac was not "just" a Category 1 hurricane. It was a large storm and a slow mover which meant that the coastal and inland flooding would last quite a while.
So, even though the level of storm surge was half of what Katrina caused, the length of time the surge lasted was longer. This inundated the coastal communities of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama for over 24 hours. Plus, the slow movement meant that the period of heavy rain would last for nearly 48 hours resulting in totals that could exceed 20 inches in spots. This put quite a strain on the coastal levee systems. Through late Wednesday night, the levees around New Orleans were holding up, but the rain continues to fall.
The images of flooding with Isaac have equaled that of Katrina in some parts of Louisiana. This is why the "wind" category for a hurricane (1 through 5) does not always indicate the true potential strength of a storm. Isaac may have only been a "1", but the flooding associated with the storm rivals that of a major hurricane. I predict that the name "Isaac" will be retired from the name list.
David Glenn
Links That David Had Posted Before
08/29/12
Here are the links that David had in an earlier post. Helpful for Isaac and for any future tropical weather. Bill Race
Latest National Hurricane Center Forecast For "Isaac"
Computer Model Forecasts For "Isaac"
Ensemble Model Forecasts For "Isaac"
European Model Forecast (ECMWF Updated early afternoon)
Canadian Model Forecast (CMC Updated early afternoon)
US Navy NOGAPS Model Forecast
Historical Tracks of other storms at same position as "Isaac"
Latest Satellite Image of "Isaac"
Eastern Gulf of Mexico Radar
Central & Western Gulf Radar
Hurricane Hunter Reconn Data
Hurricane Hunter Wind Data Map
Weather Thoughts For Tuesday 8/28/12 By Bill Race
08/28/12
6:27 AM ET
Tracking Isaac, it is still a tropical storm at this writing. We will see some moisture from the storm, but not the sustained rainfall that will occur closer to the storm itself. Highs today will be in the low 90s, and highs in the upper 80s to around 90 are expected the rest of the week. We will keep updating Isaac as we go along, with landfall expected late tonight or very early Wednesday morning. Bill Race
Weather Thoughts For Monday 8/27/2012 From Bill Race
08/27/12
After a weekend of watching Isaac's path swing more to the West, it appears now that we are looking at a landfall around New Orleans, LA late Tuesday or Early Wednesday. Of course this is still subject to change a bit. The impact in our area will not be as high with the more Westerly track. But we may still have some showers on the fringe of the storm system as it moves into the Midwest. Highs early this week will be in the low 90s. with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Links are available on David Glenn's earlier post on this blog. Bill Race
Friday Weather Thoughts From Bill Race
08/24/12
When I get up and look at the new weather data these days, I don't see much change. Now we will see low temperatures getting warmer over the weekend period, more in the mid 60s. But highs will remain around 90. Isaac could very well bring us some rain next week as it's track is a little more West into the Gulf. David has placed link in the previous blog post to help you keep updated on Isaac. That would be toward the middle of next week. Friday night football looks warm to start tonight, but cooling rapidly. Dry weather for the games. Bill Race
Tracking "Isaac"
08/23/12
"Isaac" will remain the big ticket weather item through the weekend and early next week. So, to make it easy to track the storm, here is a full list of web links to keep up with the latest developments on "Isaac". Bookmark this page, and check back daily! (David Glenn)
Latest National Hurricane Center Forecast For "Isaac"
Computer Model Forecasts For "Isaac"
Ensemble Model Forecasts For "Isaac"
European Model Forecast (ECMWF Updated early afternoon)
Canadian Model Forecast (CMC Updated early afternoon)
US Navy NOGAPS Model Forecast
Historical Tracks of other storms at same position as "Isaac"
Latest Satellite Image of "Isaac"
Eastern Gulf of Mexico Radar
Central & Western Gulf Radar
Hurricane Hunter Reconn Data
Hurricane Hunter Wind Data Map
Thursday Weather Thoughts
08/23/12
The 11 am ET advisory for Tropical Storm Isaac continues to push it a little more to the West into the Gulf Of Mexico. So early next week we will be looking to see how it positions itself, not only for landfall but if it will impact weather for us. In the meantime, beautiful weather with highs near 90 and lows in the 60s through the weekend. Click Here for more on Isaac.
A Cooler Than Normal August So Far....Plus, Tracking "Isaac"
08/22/12
After some very hot days in the heart of summer 2012, this August weather pattern has been a welcomed change of pace.
Through Wednesday (22nd), the average temperature for August 2012 in Chattanooga is 78.1 which is 1.8 degrees below average. We have spent the past 14 days in a row with below average daily temperatures. What a difference from just last August which was also the driest month ever recorded. The average temperature for August 2011 in Chattanooga was 83.2 degrees which was 3.8 degrees above average (a whopping 5.1 degrees warmer than this August). The all time warmest August on record was just a few years ago in 2007 with an average temperature of 85.7. The coolest August on record was in 1992 with an average temperature of 73.5.
We have also benefited from some wetter conditions compared to last August. Rainfall for August 2012 so far at Lovell Field is 3.79", which is 1.34" above normal. For the Summer season, the total is 13.09", which is 1.68" above normal. For the year 2012 so far, the total is 34.23", which is 3.70 BELOW average. The very dry Spring being the reason that the yearly total remains below average.
Tracking "Isaac"...........
Isaac remains a very interesting storm to track and forecast. Its path through the northern Caribbean will have to be closely watched to see if any interaction with the mountains of the Dominican Republic & Haiti have any affect on the storm. Then, the forecast upper level flow could determine if the storm goes straight up into the peninsula of Florida, or enters the Gulf of Mexico.
The upper flow current has "Isaac" riding the southern periphery of an Atlantic ridge of high pressure. This ridge is projected to break down or weaken by late weekend and early next week as a trough of low pressure develops over the US east coast and Southeast. This trough, "could" hook the storm north. But, the big question is when will that occur. Will it occur off the east coast of Florida...over the peninsula...or after it possibly reaches the Gulf? Those are questions that only time can answer.
As for the weather over the Tennessee Valley, we will have to watch and see if "Isaac" moves deeper into the Gulf. Should that happen, then some rainfall could occur in the long range. Should the storm remain over the Atlantic, then the Tennessee Valley would remain dry. So, a lot to watch in the days ahead. Follow the links below for track Isaac!
Official National Hurricane Forecast Track
Latest Satellite Images of "Isaac"
Latest Computer Model Forecasts for "Isaac"
Historical Tracks of Storms Near "Issac's" Position
You can depend on us for daily updates on "Isaac"!
Oh...and then there is Tropical Depression #10 in the far eastern Atlantic....Click Here for the latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center
David Glenn
Weather Thoughts For Wednesday 8/22/12
08/22/12
Still some very calm weather expected for the next several days. The tropics have become active with Isaac having developed and eventually getting closer to the US by early next week. Until then we can still expect highs in the upper 80s and lows in the 60s. Perhaps a shower or two by Sunday. Bill Race
Storms To Be Strong This Afternoon
08/17/12
7:04 AM ET Friday 8/17/12:
An even earlier wake up call this morning as showers and storms were moving into the area. A few warnings during the early morning hours, but they weakened quite fast. Now we wait for this afternoon for a cold front to bring some strong storms back into our area from NW to SE. My feeling is that we will have our best chances between 2 and 7 pm ET. The weekend is looking good with just a slight chance of a thundershower and highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s. We will track the storms this afternoon into this evening. Still could be some showers and storms for high school football this evening. Bill Race
Thunderstorms Return For Friday & Drought Update
08/16/12
Scattered t-storms should return Friday as another cold front moves through the Tennessee Valley. A few of the storms could be severe.
Stormy Friday
Another cold front should move through the Tennessee Valley Friday. This should bring an increase in cloud cover during the day Friday, then the chance of scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Some of the storms could become severe during the afternoon and evening hours. The threat of tornadoes remains low. These types of thunderstorms though could have the risk of developing large hail and some damaging wind gusts (along with heavy downpours and some hail). See the map below from the Storm Prediction Center that places our part of the Tennessee Valley in the "Slight Risk" category for severe storms Friday.
So, if you are planning on attending area football games Friday night, be aware that showers and storms are possible. Most of the showers and storms should end prior to midnight as the cold front moves through.
Weekend PM T-Showers
The coverage of t-showers should be less over the weekend, but mainly the afternoon and evening variety. Both days should have a mix of sun and clouds with daily afternoon highs in the mid 80s and morning lows in the mid 60s. Some scattered showers/storms will be possible each afternoon and evening..
Drought Update
Even though a very large portion of the US has moderate to severe drought conditions, most of our viewing area is no longer under any drought category. The exceptions are parts of our northwest Georgia viewing area in Chattooga and Gordon Co. Moderate to severe drought conditions are not far away with the Atlanta area and south experiencing the drought. Most of the Tennessee Valley has benefited from increased rainfall amounts since June. This has eased us out of the drought conditions. The maps below show the current Drought Monitor for Tennessee and Georgia, Click here for the complete map of the US Drought Monitor
David Glenn
Weather Thoughts For Thursday
08/16/12
The heat is going to return some for Thursday with a high back into the low 90s. At this point, I don't see any storms popping up this afternoon. Certainly not many. Friday is the day when we will have a better chance of thunderstorms again. Still will see some sun during the day. Temps held down a little but still in the upper 80s on Friday. High School Football may have to dodge a few storms on Friday night as well. The weekend looks mainly dry to me. A few showers early on Saturday seems to be the best chance. Highs in the 80s over the weekend. Bill Race
A Beautiful Weekend Ahead, So Don't Miss The Meteor Shower!
08/10/12
A nice break from the oppressive heat and humidity for the weekend!
This past week has felt typical for August with the heat and high humidity. A strong cold front for this time of year was responsible for the thunderstorms Friday. But, it will also be responsible for the beautiful weekend ahead!
Much drier air should begin to filter in through the morning hours Saturday. Clouds could linger through Saturday morning then give way to a partly sunny sky. You will notice the refreshing feel to the air with lower humidity levels and a steady breeze from the north-northwest. Temperatures should only top out in the mid/upper 80s and only near 80 on the mountain tops!
A cooler than average night for Saturday night through Sunday morning as temperatures should dip to near 60. Some 50s are possible in the outlying areas and on the mountains. Another nice day Sunday with sunshine and low humidity with high temperatures in the upper 80s. Temperatures should return to around 90 for next week along with higher humidity levels. Some pop up t-showers each afternoon Tuesday through Friday.
With a clear & comfortable conditions Saturday night, it will be the perfect night to catch the annual Perseid Meteor Shower.
Here are the specifics and viewing details from www.almanac.com....
Watching a meteor shower couldn't be simpler. All you need is a dark location away from city lights and your own two eyes. A reclining chair is helpful to prevent a stiff neck, though you may find it even more comfortable to stretch out on the ground atop (or inside) a sleeping bag. The best time to observe the Perseids is between midnight and sunrise; that's when the Earth will be colliding head-on with the meteor stream. You may see as many as 60 meteors an hour from a dark site, and the meteors can appear in any part of the sky. Watching a meteor shower takes some patience. Many minutes may pass with no activity, then suddenly you will see several meteors in quick succession (Source: www.almanac.com)
July 2012 Was Both Hotter & Wetter Than Average
07/31/12
As we turn the calendar to August, a look back at the weather statistics for July 2012 will show that it was both hotter and wetter than average for Chattanooga.
The fact that temperatures ended up above average should come as no surprise to most. The first day of the month had the highest ever recorded temperature in Chattanooga with 107 degrees (this came after another 107 degree day on June 30). 25 of the 31 days of July had temperatures above average with 4 of those days 100 or above. The average temperature for July 2012 was 83 degrees which is about 3 degrees above average.
As hot as it was, the average temperature fell far short of the hottest July on record. That happened in July of 1993 with the average temperature of 85.2 degrees. In fact, July 2012 ties the same average temperature of July 2011. July 2012 was a little hotter with an average temperature of 83.5 degrees. In case you are wondering, the coolest July on record was in 1967 with an average temperature of 72.8 degrees.
Rainfall was a welcomed sight for July 2012 because it allowed us to break away from the record heat spell that started the month. Granted, we had to go through periods of strong to severe storms, but the downpours really added up. Rainfall for July 2012 was 6.87" which was over 1.75" above average. And, this stopped the dry trend that happened in June (2012) with a below average 2.43". This was the wettest of the past 5 July's in Chattanooga. The all time record wettest July was in 1916 with 13.49". The driest July on record was in 1995 with 0.20".
The outlook for August from the Climate Prediction Center continues the ongoing trend of above average temperatures (See Maps Below). The core of that heat should be centered over the Central Plains and Midwest. The trend over the next 4 1/2 weeks could continue to remain above average for the Tennessee Valley as well. The rainfall outlook locally remains in the "equal chance" category, which means that rainfall trends could go either way from above to below average. Rainfall in August locally can also be affected by Gulf tropical systems which tend to be a possibility in August and September.
David Glenn
Some Strong To Severe Storms Possible Early Tuesday
07/30/12
A round of strong to severe storms is possible late Monday night and into the early morning hours of Tuesday.
The combination of an upper level wind flow from the northwest and a developing "trough" moving in from the west, could increase our local chances of thunderstorms late in the night. Unlike typical summer patterns that exhibit storm development during the day and waning at night, this system could actually develop the storms during the late night hours.
The map below shows the Storm Prediction Center's latest outlook that places the Tennessee Valley in the "Slight Risk" category for the possibility of severe storms starting during the early morning hours of Tuesday. This means that a few storms could produce damaging wind gusts and large hail. Aside from those severe storm elements, heavy downpours and frequent lightning (and loud thunder claps) can be expected as well.
The chance of strong storms could linger for Tuesday morning, followed by a break in the action. A redevelopment of some thunderstorms is possible again for Tuesday afternoon and evening. After a possibly active Tuesday, the chance of thunderstorms drops off a bit for most of the rest of the work week. Mainly just the pop up variety of scattered afternoon & evening t-storms. The chance goes up slightly by the weekend.
As always, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team to keep you updated!
David Glenn
"Slight Risk" of Strong Storms Friday
07/26/12
After some hot & dry afternoons lately, the chance of storms returns for Friday. And, a few storms could become severe.
An approaching front should help spark a better chance of scattered thunderstorms locally, especially Friday afternoon and evening. The fact that this will be with a cool front increases the instability a bit and means that a few storms could reach severe levels. Some of the storms could produce damaging wind gusts and large hail. Other non-severe storms will have the possibility for heavy downpours and frequent lightning strikes.
The map below shows the latest Storm Prediction Center outlook that keeps most of our viewing area in the "Slight Risk" category for the chance of severe storms through Friday evening.
After the front moves through, drier air should filter in. This should lower the humidity levels for the weekend, but not lower the temperature. So, it should not feel as muggy over the weekend, but the afternoon temperatures should still be in the low 90s. Morning lows should be just a little more comfortable with upper 60s because of the drier air.
You can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team to keep you updated!
David Glenn
A Typical Summer Pattern
07/13/12
Nearly 3 inches of rain was received in Chattanooga during the week of July 9th. This was one of the multi-day periods since June 10-11. The yearly rainfall deficit still stands at 5.04 inches below normal.
The upcoming pattern for the next 7 to 10 days will be one that is typical for July. The Bermuda High pressure system should build back in. This puts us in a pattern that will keep conditions hot and humid each afternoon, though nowhere near as hot as the last heat wave. Daily highs should average in the low 90s and morning lows in the low 70s which is around the normal range for July.
The southerly upper level wind flow around the Bermuda High should keep ample Gulf moisture moving in. But, with no fronts moving in, daytime heating will be the main spark for scattered showers and storms to flare up each afternoon and into the early evening hours. The overall risk of widespread severe storms remains very low in this time of pattern. But, keep in mind that heavy downpours and frequent lightning strikes are possible with most of the storms that build up. Remember what we always advise..."When the thunder roars, go indoors".
The maps below show the latest 6-10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center. The CPC agrees with our outlook that temperatures should average near or just slightly above normal. Rainfall amounts are also expected to be just a little above average because of the daily chance of PM t-showers.
Be sure to check out our Newschannel 9 Zoom Radar to track storms in your neighborhood. You can also check out the Newschannel 9 Facebook Page and the StormTrack 9 Facebook Page for local weather updates. Be sure to also follow the StormTrack 9 Team on Twitter:
@StormTrack9Dave......@StormTrack9Bill.....@StormTrack9Dish
David Glenn
Gust Front Causes Local Damage Thursday
07/05/12
A gust front caused widespread wind damage across the Tennessee Valley Thursday evening.
As discussed in our earlier post, the risk existed for the possibility of severe storms and damaging gusts for Thursday afternoon and evening. Many folks were wondering if it was a tornado. Not this time. The damage was caused by a phenomenon known as a gust front.
A gust front is simply the outflow wind of an approaching line of thunderstorms (in some cases just from a single thunderstorm). Gust fronts can happen often locally with approaching storms, but on some rare occasions like tonight, they can be quite strong. The combination of the extreme heat over the southeast fueling the storms and a strong disturbance dropping down from the north created the strong line of storms that moved through the Ohio Valley, then through the Tennessee Valley. As the line of storms began collapsing just to our north, the wind outflow (or gust front) continued full speed ahead to the south. So, in some areas, the damaging wind rolled in even without a drop of rain.
The result was downed trees, limbs and powerlines. Homes were damaged as well. It simply rubs salt in the wound for those of us still weary from the tornado damage the past two Springs.
Temperatures near 100 should continue for Friday and Saturday. Some afternoon and evening storms will again be possible. We always have to be aware of the risk for damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning. Better rain chances and lower temperatures by early next week.
David Glenn
Heat & Possible Strong Storms Thursday
07/04/12
Thursday should be another very hot day, but the potential is there again for some strong storms during the afternoon and evening hours.
We had somewhat of a break from the extreme heat on Independence Day as the showers and storms developed during the early afternoon. Chattanooga's high was 95, but just to our north and west, temperatures surpassed 100 at Huntsville and Nashville. So, the heat is still lingering close by and should again be felt locally on Thursday. High temperatures should again close in on the 100 degree mark with a Heat Index feeling more like it is above 100.
Storm chances could increase area wide Thursday as an upper level disturbance drops in from the north-northwest. The combination of this disturbance moving in, along with the peak heating of the day could lead to some strong to severe storms. This means that a few storms could produce damaging wind gusts and large hail. Aside from those elements, heavy rain and frequent lightning strikes will also be possible.
A few storms on Wednesday did produce some wind damage in Whitfield Co, along with lightning sparking a structure fire. Wind damage occurred Tuesday over parts of Monroe Co near Sweetwater. So, each day different parts of the viewing area have experienced some severe elements. Extreme heat can often lead to stronger wind gusts and even some downburst/microburst activity that can cause damage. Because of the dry conditions, trees and tree limbs can more easily snap even during non severe storm wind gusts.
The map below shows the latest forecast for Thursday from the Storm Prediction Center. The Tennessee Valley has been placed in the "Slight Risk" category for the possibility of severe storms.
You can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team to keep you updated!
David Glenn
Temperatures as we go through Saturday June 30th, 2012
06/30/12
The high temperature in Chattanooga was 107 today. This breaks the all time record high since record keeping began.
At 4 pm ET: Temperature is 105... Heat Index is 107. Bill Race
At 3 pm ET: Temperature is 103... Heat Index is 105. Bill Race
At 2 pm ET: Temperature is 102... Heat Index is 105. Bill Race
At 1 pm ET: Temperature is 99... Heat index is 102. Bill Race
At Noon ET: Temperature is 96... Heat index is 99. Bill Race
New Records Set & More Could Follow
06/29/12
The high temperature of Friday was 106. This surpasses a couple of records and ties one.
The 106 high temperature breaks the daily record of 102 set in 1936. This also tops the all time June record of 104 from June 28, 1952. This also ties the all time record high for Chattanooga which has held since July 28, 1952.
Daily high temperature records are again in jeopardy for Saturday through Monday. Here is a look at the current records and the forecast highs.
Saturday: Current Record: 103 (1952).....Projected High: 104
Sunday: Current Record: 101 (1954)....Projected High: 103
Monday: Current Record: 99 (1954)....Projected High: 101
David Glenn
Heat Records In Jeopardy
06/27/12
A major heat wave will continue to build across the Tennessee Valley, especially in a stretch of days from Friday through Monday.
High temperatures each afternoon could reach above 100. Humidity values staying low for Friday and possibly Saturday, but higher levels Sunday and Monday which could result in Heat Index values nearing 110. Record high temperatures are a possibility each day. Here is a look at the current records and projected highs:
Friday: Projected High: 103 Record High: (102-1936)
Saturday: Projected High: 103 Record High: (103-1952)
Sunday: Projected High: 103 Record High (101-1954)
Monday: Projected High: 101 Record High (99-1954)
The all time record high for Chattanooga is 106 set back on July 28, 1952.
The all time record high for June in Chattanooga is 104 set back on June 28, 1952 (same year, but one month earlier than the all time record high of 106).
David Glenn
Hot Days Continue & Watching The Gulf
06/22/12
High temperatures in the 90s should stick around through next week.
The heat is on and right on time as go through the first weekend of summer. Daily high temperatures should reach the 90s and heat index values possible in the mid/upper 90s both Saturday and Sunday. Only microscopic changes in the temperature by early next week. Daily highs could briefly ease back to near 90 Monday and Tuesday, but then return to the mid 90s for the remainder of the week. Normal high temperatures this time of year usually average in the upper 80s.
Rain chances remain slim and mainly just in the "pop up" category. The best chance for any "pop ups" could be over the Blue Ridge Mtns. A slight increase in some pop up t-showers on Monday area wide, but then mostly dry and hot through Thursday. There might be a slight increase in the chance of scattered t-showers by the end of next week on Friday.
The potential big weather story for the weekend is the possibility of a tropical system developing in the Gulf. The next name on this year's list is "Debby". This system is already soaking central and southern Florida and will continue to do so through at least Monday (possibly longer depending upon the storm path). A big danger is the risk of rip currents along the northern Gulf coast. So, if you have travel plans between Gulf Shores-Pensacola-Destin & the beaches along 30-A, please be aware of the rip current risk. If the red flags are flying, then you need to stay out of the water!
Click Here for the latest update on the developments in the Gulf
David Glenn
The Heat Is On....Again!
06/20/12
As Summer officially begins, the heat continues to build across the Tennessee Valley!
90s For A While
This is certainly not our first heat wave of 2012 as May was quite hot at times. But, June has been a different story with the average temperature running just about 1.5 degrees below normal. Wednesday was the first time all month that the official high temperature reached 90 or above this month. The next 5-7 days should have temperatures averaging above normal levels locally.
High temperatures should average in the low 90s at most valley locations (80s mountains). Heat index values could reach the mid/upper 90s over the weekend. Low temperatures at night and through the morning hours should also be quite muggy in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Some Pop Ups Possible!
Widespread rain chances remain small the next few days, but at least some scattered t-showers will be possible providing some relief in spots. That chance increases a bit on Thursday, but still just the "hit & miss" variety during the afternoon and early evening. A weak front should fall apart upon reaching the Tennessee Valley on Friday, but it could help spark just a slightly better chance of some pop up t-showers Friday afternoon and evening.
Over the weekend, drier air moves in which should reduce any shower chances. Therefore, with more sunshine, it should be hotter with high temperatures approaching the mid 90s.
David Glenn
A Typical June Weekend
06/15/12
A typical June pattern can be expected for the Tennessee Valley through the weekend and early next week!
Last Weekend of Spring!
Summer officially begins next Wednesday (20th), so this weekend is technically the last one of Spring! As has been the case much of this Spring, it will be a very warm weekend. High pressure off the east coast will continue to have a big influence on our weather. Expect a sunny to partly sunny sky each afternoon and high temperatures in the upper 80s. Any shower chances remain in the isolated category with just a few "pop ups" possible each afternoon and evening. However, most areas should remain dry.
No Changes Into Next Week
The pattern should not change much into next week. This means that we can expect a similar pattern of partly sunny, hot days and only small chances of any late day t-showers. Daily highs should average between the upper 80s to lower 90s.
David Glenn
More Nice Nights For Riverbend Through Wednesday
06/12/12
Some light rain fell at Ross's Landing Sunday Night, but the raindrops mostly stayed away from The Strut. So far, so good for weather conditions and Riverbend 2012
Looking Good Through Wednesday
Dry conditions have returned to the Tennessee Valley, thanks to a cool front. High pressure building in should keep it dry through early Thursday. This means that Riverbend should have another great couple of nights both Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures should be quite warm both evenings in the 80s, but cooling to the 70s by the time the main acts take the stage at 9:30pm.
Just Some Pop Up Showers Through Saturday
A typical June pattern should resume for Thursday through Saturday. This means that each day should be partly sunny with daily highs in the upper 80s to near 90. As far as t-shower chances, it remains low, but in the "slight chance" category each day. Mainly the pop up afternoon & evening t-shower variety. For Riverbend, just keep in mind that some pop ups are possible for the final evenings of the event, but nothing of an "all night" type of rain. Temperatures should remain in the 80s through the evening hours, then 70s late evening.
Live Updates From Ross's Landing
The StormTrack 9 Team is once again the official weather provider for the 2012 Riverbend Festival. We will have live updates each night on the big screen!
A Look At The First Weekend Of Riverbend
06/07/12
Riverbend 2012 begins Friday evening! As always, weather is always closely watched as Chattanooga's biggest annual party begins.
Dry To Begin The Festival
Conditions look good for the first two nights of Riverbend. A fair sky Friday night with temperatures in the 80s, then 70s as the evening moves on. Saturday looks a little more humid. So, as the gates open late Saturday afternoon, expect temperatures in the upper 80s and a heat index in the low 90s because of the rising humidity. Skies should be partly sunny through sunset, with more clouds Saturday evening. We will have to keep an eye on the radar Saturday evening for any scattered t-showers moving in from the south. A better chance late Saturday night after midnight and toward Sunday morning.
Sunday Looks Humid With Scattered T-Showers
A more typical June patterns starts to settle in starting Sunday. Expect more cloud cover and higher humidity. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning through evening. Temperatures will be held down to the low/mid 80s, but also quite muggy. During the evening hours, there will still be the chance for scattered t-showers. As always, the StormTrack 9 Team will be providing weather updates at the festival site with a live look at Doppler radar.
Unsettled Pattern Through Next Week
This unsettled pattern could stick around through midweek of next week. A slow moving front could keep showers and storms in the forecast. Mostly on a scattered basis, but rainfall could be heavy at times.. Expect a cloudy to partly cloudy sky when showers are not occurring. Shower chances should taper off during the late stage of the week and into the weekend.
Follow The StormTrack 9 Team
Be sure to follow us on social media! Here are our team member Twitter accounts:
@StormTrack9Dave
@StormTrack9Bill
@StormTrack9Dish
Follow us on Facebook on the WTVC Newschannel 9 Page or the StormTrack 9 Page. You can also follow my personal Facebook page: Meteorologist David Glenn WTVC.
Should threatening weather be an issue, you can depend on the StormTrack 9 Team to keep you updated!
David Glenn
A Safe Way To View The Transit Of Venus
06/05/12
The transit of Venus across the path of the sun will occur late afternoon Tuesday and into the evening. Safe viewing will require filtered lenses as you should never stare directly at the sun.
Another "safe" alternative is to view this via the web and live coverage from NASA. Here is the link!
Live NASA coverage Link
A Cool Start To June!
05/31/12
After a much warmer than average May, June should get off to a much cooler than average start!
May 2012, Another Warmer Than Normal Month
The average temperature for May in Chattanooga was 73.4 degrees which was 4.9 degrees above normal. The hottest temperature was 94 degrees in May 27th. The coldest temperatures was 49 degrees on both the 10th and 11th. Each month of 2012 has had temperatures above normal so far.
June To Start Off Cool!
As June kicks off, the warmer than normal air gets the boot! A cold front sweeps through Friday which should usher in temperatures below average. Afternoon temperatures should hold in the 70s along with a brisk wind out of the northwest at 10-20mph. Temperatures Friday night through Saturday morning could dip to near 50 in the city and even some upper 40s away from the city and at higher elevations. This will be some 10-15 degrees below average, but not quite a record low. The record low for Saturday morning is 43 degrees set in 1932.
Saturday afternoon should remain cooler than normal with afternoon highs mostly in the 70s with a few spots near 80. Mid/upper 50s for Sunday morning, then mid 80s by Sunday afternoon. Upper 80s return for early next week.
So, it will be nice to get a break from using the A/C over the next several days after the hotter than normal May.
David Glenn
A Cold Front Brings Severe Storm Chance, Then Much Cooler Air Moves In
05/30/12
A strong low pressure system and associated cold front for this time of year could bring a chance of strong to severe storms locally by late Thursday and through Thursday night. This will be followed by some much cooler air for the first weekend of June.
"Slight Risk" of Severe Storms
Scattered showers and thunderstorms should begin to pop up again Thursday afternoon. But, the better chance for stronger storms looks to be later Thursday night and into Friday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has already placed a large part of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast under a "Slight Risk" category for the chance that a few storms could become severe. This means that some storms could produce large hail and damaging wind. The risk of tornadoes appears low, but as always, we will keep an eye on this. (See map below which shows that 15% of storms locally could become severe.)
Showers and storms should end through Friday afternoon as much drier air moves in. This sets the stage for a nice start to the weekend on Saturday.
Much Cooler Start To The Weekend
Much cooler than normal air should invade the area for the first weekend of June. Low temperatures by Saturday morning could dip into the low 50s locally. This means that some areas north and mountains could dip to the upper 40s. Afternoon highs on Saturday should range from the mid/upper 70s mountains and low 80s valley locations. Morning lows on Sunday should again be in the upper 50s with afternoon highs a bit warmer in the mid/upper 80s. The rapid warm up continues as temperatures approach 90 Monday.
David Glenn
Hot Holiday Weekend & Some Changes Next Week
05/25/12
Near record temperatures are still expected for the holiday weekend. By next week, better chances for rain should slowly creep in and even some much cooler air by late next week.
Memorial Day
Please take time to reflect upon and honor those who gave so much to our nation.
A Hot Weekend
As mentioned in our earlier post, temperature records could be in jeopardy, especially Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures each afternoon should reach the mid 90s ( upper 80s mountains), with Heat Index values from 95-100. The record high for Saturday is 94 (1962), while the record high for Sunday is 95 (1911). Memorial Day should again be hot, but with a few more clouds and some pop up storms, afternoon highs may hover around 90 which would be below the record high of 95 (1962).
Slim Holiday Weekend Rain Chances
Rain chances for the holiday weekend remain slim. Only slight chances for any afternoon and evening pop up t-storms. The slightly better chance into the Blue Ridge & Smoky Mtns. Otherwise, most areas should be dry and partly sunny. By Memorial Day, there could be a slightly better chance of mainly pop up afternoon storms.
Watching The Tropics
The National Hurricane Center continues to watch the possible developing system just north of the Bahamas that should initially drift northeast, but then slide back to the west-southwest. This means that some tropical rains could fall along the GA/FL Atlantic coast, then possibly slide along the Fl Panhandle by Memorial Day. Click Here for the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center
Some Severe Storms Possible Late Next Week.....Then Cooler
The chance for scattered afternoon and evening t-showers should increase Tuesday and Wednesday, otherwise a mix of clouds and sun each day. But, by Thursday, a stronger clipper system diving in from the northwest could bring the potential for some strong to possibly severe storms Thursday and Thursday night. Still too early for specifics, but the pattern shows the possibility of some strong storms. Behind this front should be some much cooler air with high temperatures dropping to the 70s by next Friday and morning lows dipping back to the upper 50s to near 60 by then. So, a lot to watch in the days ahead.
David Glenn
Early Season Heat Wave For The Holiday Weekend
05/23/12
It may only be May, but temperatures are about to soar to July and August levels. Some record high temperatures could be tied or even broken over the weekend.
A ridge of high pressure aloft will build in by the weekend and remain strong through Memorial Day. This means a hot and dry pattern for most of the holiday weekend. The only exception being that some afternoon & evening pop up thunderstorms could return by Memorial Day. Here is a look at the projected high temperatures and current record high temperatures for each day.
Friday: Projected High: 92 Record High: 95 (1953)
Saturday: Projected High: 95 Record High: 94 (1962)
Sunday: Projected High: 94 Record High: 95 (1911)
Monday: Projected High: 91 Record High: 95 (1962)
After some pop up storms Monday, a slightly better chance for showers and storms could arrive for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week along with cooler afternoon temperatures in the 80s.
David Glenn:
We Need More Rain, But Only Isolated Chances Expected
05/17/12
After some much needed rain fell Sunday and Monday, conditions have dried out again and the chances for more rain remain low for the next few days.
Only Isolated Chances
That headline pretty much sums it up! For the period of Friday through Sunday, only small chances for isolated showers/t-showers can be expected locally. The areas that do receive the showers will be fortunate with some decent downpours, but most areas should be partly sunny.
A low pressure system moving up the eastern seaboard could bring "tropical-like" rains along the coast and offshore. For the Tennessee Valley, this means that dry air on the back side of the system will be reinforced and keeping our rain chances low through the weekend. This should also allow temperatures to remain above normal with daily highs in the mid 80s.
Slightly Better Rain Chances Next Week
A slow moving cool front could approach the Tennessee Valley early next week and could help spark a slightly better chance of showers/t-showers for Monday through Wednesday. Again, this rain chance remains just widely scattered for now. Should the front stall out locally, we might see a better chance of rain. We will continue to keep you posted on that! See the first map below which shows the 5 day rainfall outlook which shows wet conditions both west and east of the Tennessee Valley, but only small amounts locally through Monday night.
Rainfall Stats For The Month/Season/Year
May Rainfall So Far: 1.62" (-0.76")
Spring 2012 Rainfall So Far: 7.71" (-3.64")
2012 Rainfall So Far: 17.06" (-4.04")
.......So, yes, we REALLY need some rain!!!!!!
Temperatures Remain Warm
Temperatures through the upcoming weekend will be a bit above normal in the mid 80s each day. With slightly better rain chances early next week, the high temperatures should remain near normal. By late next week and possibly into the Memorial Day weekend, temperatures look to remain at or above normal. See the second map below which shows the 8-14 day temperature outlook which shows above normal temperatures expected locally.
David Glenn
Sad To See The Rain Exit, But Some Beautiful Days Are Ahead!
05/14/12
It was so nice to see some rain in the rain gauges helping quench the thirst of our lawns and gardens.
The 2 day rainfall total at Lovell Field as of 6pm Tuesday was 1.52". Some areas received even more than that nearing the 2"+ mark as heavy downpours moved through during the afternoon and evening Tuesday. The Lovell Field total was nearly double the amount of rain of what we received for the entire month of April (0.69"). Our yearly rainfall deficit stands at 3.64" below normal, but was knocked down quite a bit because of the rain on Sunday and Monday.
Drier conditions can now be expected for the next few days. Some patchy fog Tuesday morning will give way to a mix of clouds and some sun. Afternoon highs should near 80 at most valley locations (70s mountains). Dry and sunny for Wednesday with low/mid 80s. A few late afternoon t-showers could occur Thursday & low/mid 80s again. Fairly quiet for Friday and the weekend with partly sunny skies each day and afternoon highs in the low/mid 80s. Only small chances at this time for any pop up afternoon t-showers.
David Glenn
Weekend Outlook
05/11/12
The Weekend Outlook
As I outlined in the previous post, we really, really need some rain locally. So, keep that in mind as the better chance of rain creeps in through the weekend.
Increasing cloud cover for Saturday and a steady breeze from the southeast. The temperatures through the afternoon should be a little lower than Friday because of the clouds. Expect mainly low to mid 70s, except upper 60s mountains. Some scattered showers are going to be possible during the day. A slight chance during the morning, then a better chance of mainly scattered showers during the afternoon and evening. In other words, not raining everywhere and not the all day variety. Cloudy with occasional showers Saturday night & near 60.
Sunday, Mother's Day, looks cloudy with a better chance of off and on periods of rain and even some thunderstorms. The threat of severe weather with this system remains low locally. High temperatures again should be held to the low 70s (60s mountains). Off and on periods of rain and a few t-storms should continue through Sunday night and Monday. Drier air moves in for Tuesday and the rest of next week looks very nice with daily highs returning to near 80.
The map below shows the latest NOAA rainfall outlook for the period of Saturday night through Monday night. You will notice a large part of the Southeast should get some much needed rain. including the Tennessee Valley (See map below). Here is a look at the various computer forecast model rainfall projections for Chattanooga.
GFS Model: 1.23"
NAM Model: 1.44"
With an over 4 inch rainfall deficit locally, this would be some welcome raindrops. Hoping the pattern continues to look promising!
David Glenn
Some Much Needed Rain Could Be On The Horizon
05/10/12
The Tennessee Valley continues to suffer through a dry Spring. Take a look at some of these stats:
May 2012 Rain So Far: 0.09" (1.32" below average)
Spring 2012 Rainfall So Far: 6.18" (4.20" below average)
2012 Rainfall So Far: 15.53" (4.60" below average)
As you can see, the very dry Spring pattern is the sole reason that we have a yearly rainfall deficit.
A better chance of rain could be on the horizon for late weekend and early next week. A slow moving low pressure system should pass south of us along the Gulf coast. This could lead to a wet pattern locally. There are still some differences in timing among the various computer models. But, the period from late Sunday through early Tuesday could be wet with numerous showers locally. Right now the threat of severe weather looks low. We will continue to monitor this chance for some much needed rain through the weekend.
The map below is a look at the latest NOAA rainfall outlook from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. It projects a large part of the Southeast with a 1"-2" average of rain and could include the Tennessee Valley.
David Glenn
Cooler Mornings Ahead
05/08/12
After a summer like weekend and start to the work week, some cooler air should filter into the Tennessee Valley beginning Wednesday.
Wednesday should be cooler than the past several days with afternoon highs only in the mid 70s (near 70 mountains). This is about 10 degrees cooler than the afternoon highs on Tuesday. Cloud cover should linger Wednesday with some late day clearing. And, there is still the chance for a few isolated showers through Wednesday morning and afternoon.
A clearing sky and much cooler Wednesday night through Thursday morning with temperatures dipping to near 50 (40s mountains and outlying areas). Sunshine and low humidity Thursday with highs in the mid 70s. Upper 40s are again possible by Friday morning. Though these morning temperatures will be below average for early May, they are not quite at record levels. Here are the record low temperatures for Thursday & Friday:
Thursday's Record Low: 38 (1966)
Friday's Record Low: 40 (1954)
Afternoon temperatures should near 80 by Friday and the weekend. A few pop up showers are possible Saturday, but a slightly better chance of rain Sunday and Monday. We really need the rain as the yearly rainfall deficit currently stands at 4.40" below average.
David Glenn
A Hot Weekend, But Cooler Temps Are Coming Soon
05/04/12
Temperatures should remain summer-like through the weekend, but should return to seasonal levels by next week.
About That Brighter Full Moon!
The moon will reach its perigee or closest point to earth during its cycle for the month. This perigee will be the closest for this year resulting in a full moon that will be about 16% brighter Saturday night. That is basically the only effects locally. As always, the moon will "appear" larger when it is lower on the horizon because of what is called the "moon illusion". The visual effect is most noticeable when you see the moon low on the horizon compared to objects on the ground. Always a good time for a photo! The moon will rise at 8:21pmET Saturday evening, with the moon becoming "full" at 11:35pmET. The moon will be at its farthest point from earth (apogee) on November 28th.
www.space.com has a wealth of information about the "Supermoon"
Cinco De Mayo Weekend
Temperatures will continue to feel like July for this first weekend of May. Partly sunny both Saturday and Sunday with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to near 90. The local mountain tops will be just a tad cooler with highs in the low 80s. There will be chances for pop up showers & storms both days. Just widely scattered, but if you do happen to experience a storm in your neighborhood be prepared for heavy downpours and frequent lightning. If you have outdoor plans, please remember lightning safety rules....."When the thunder roars, go indoors". Be sure to wait 30 minutes after the last visible lightning strike or audible clap of thunder before resuming outdoor activities. Most thundershowers should fade out into the evening hours.
A Wetter Start Next Week, Then Cooler
A better chance for showers and storms is possible on Monday and continuing into Monday night and Tuesday. This could finally mean some much needed rain over most of the viewing area instead of the pop up variety of showers we have had lately. Rain should end late Tuesday night and into Wednesday followed by some drier and much cooler air. This means a drier pattern for Wednesday through Friday, but daily highs will only be in the mid 70s and morning lows cooling to the 50s. Next Thursday morning could be the coolest with near 50 in the city and possibly some upper 40s away from the city.
David Glenn
Temperature Records In Jeopardy As May Begins
05/01/12
The start of May will feel more like July as temperatures creep close to the 90 degree mark!. The official high temperature at Lovell Field Tuesday was 90 degrees. This tied the record high from 1951 for May 1st. Here are the record highs for Wednesday through Friday.
Wednesday: 92 (1942)
Thursday: 89 (1959)
Friday: 90 (1955)
Each of these records could be a close call each afternoon!
David Glenn
April Showers Were Absent in 2012
04/30/12
The usual April showers were a rare sight in the Tennessee Valley for 2012. The rainfall total for the month was 0.69". This was 3.18" below the average rainfall for the month. And, it was not far from the all time record for driest April which occurred in 1976 when only 0.44" of rain fell. The yearly total stands at only 15.44" which is 3.16" below normal. A large part of the yearly deficit due to the dry April.
April temperatures followed on the heels of a very warm March. It was nowhere near a record though. The average temperature was 63.9 which was 3.5 degrees above normal. For comparison sake, the average temperature for March 2012 was 62.9 degrees which was 10.7 degrees above normal.
The NOAA May Outlook
The maps below will show the latest temperature and rainfall forecasts for May. In summary, an above normal trend for temperatures is again possible locally. As for rainfall, the long range outlook is a little inconclusive. NOAA projects the category of "Equal Chances of Above or Below" for rainfall over the Southeast and including the Tennessee Valley.
David Glenn
Remembering April 27, 2011
04/26/12
On the night of April 26th, I was having dinner with my family. My wife knew that I had been concerned for days about the upcoming weather pattern for the next day. She asked me, "what does your gut tell you?". I told her, "it's the same as I felt the day before Hurricane Katrina.....this system could be very bad". She knew I was serious. When I worked in Mobile, AL, she and my sons had to evacuate north 3 times in one year due to the strong hurricanes of 2004-2005. Hurricane Katrina being the worst. She knew that we could not really evacuate for something like this. So, we spent the length of our dinner discussing the safety plan for our house and made sure my sons were clear on what to do. Likewise, the bulk of my broadcast time that Tuesday night was spent urging viewers to do the same. Be Prepared and Stay Alert!
Meteorologists can get a gauge of the "potential" energy within a developing storm system by looking at various computer model indices. One such equation or index is called the SWEAT index which stands for "Severe Weather Threat" index. It takes into account the stability of the atmosphere and the wind profile. A SWEAT index of over 400 means that supercell storms are likely with some that could produce strong tornadoes. The projected SWEAT index for April 27th was 527! I had never seen this before. Two different computer model runs on April 26th yielded totals above 500. I then emailed my boss, Tom Henderson, to give him a brief on my thoughts for the next day. I told him exactly what I told my wife..."I have never seen anything like this before locally and it could be very bad". I closed the email with this quote..."I hope I am wrong". If there was ever a forecast when I wanted to be wrong, it was this one.
The next day saw our weather team stay on the air continuously for nearly 18 hours. Only having a short 15 minute break after 1pm. Bill Race had done a tremendous job during the morning hours. It was like watching an aerial assault unfold. A literal conveyor belt of supercells constantly moving in from the southwest. I cannot tell you how many times we said "hunker down" or "get to your safe place"....for you can never say it enough in this type of situation. Jason Disharoon and I spent those long hours analyzing those storms right down to street level to be as detailed as possible on what areas could be affected. Often times there would be several warnings in effect at the same time. Our newsroom staff likewise worked the same long hours gathering information from across the viewing area. Some out in the elements covering the damage as storms continued to move through.
At 6pm I sent a text to my wife urging her to get to the basement as yet another supercell was sprinting toward downtown Chattanooga and our house on Missionary Ridge. I received a reply from her stating..."OK, we are in the basement". 30 minutes later, Tom Henderson motioned for me to step off camera and for Jason to take over. Tom told me that he had just received a phone call from my neighbor that a tree had struck our house. I knew immediately which tree it was. It was the huge oak tree in my neighbor's yard that had a natural lean toward my house. I immediately called my wife and with each ring I kept saying "pick up...pick up...pick up". She finally answered in a chipper voice and said "hey". I said, "are you all ok?". She assured me that they were fine, but she knew nothing about the tree. They had heard nothing. I asked her to take a look upstairs and upon getting there she confirmed that the tree had indeed sideswiped the house puncturing the roof. She said that the house was still fine, but leaking. I wanted to go home and check on them, but she told me that they would be okay and to keep broadcasting. It was a brief sense of relief, because I knew that the storms continued to rage and lives were at risk.
It was truly painful watching these monster storms roll over our local communities. We kept pleading for folks to get to safety and take these warnings seriously. With each passing storm we were getting the dreadful news of damage and injuries. And, it only escalated through the night. The last Tornado Warning expired shortly after midnight. We then broadcasted our normal 11pm newscast at that time. I sat at the news desk with Kim and Calvin. We rolled on some raw video of the damage in Ringgold. They both asked me my thoughts. I simply could not speak. Emotionally drained and tears welling up, there were just no words. Taking a deep breath and gaining my composure I had to get right back to the task of discussing the current radar trends and detailing when all the storms would end.
Our marathon storm coverage ended after 1am. Time was still spent updating our web site and making sure every square mile of our viewing area was out of danger. I was finally able to go home around 2am. It was a silent drive home with periods of trembling lips and tears. I arrived home to a dark house because of no power. Everyone was asleep in the den so as to stay together. I just sat there in the dark watching them all sleep. For as thankful as I was for their safety, I felt guilty. I knew that many others were not as fortunate. I never slept.
People often ask me what it was like during those long hours of broadcasting that day. It's a question that is very hard to answer. Yes, the hours were long and it seemed the storms would never end. It was an emotionally stressful day as you can imagine as we all felt that way. It was challenging because so many people were losing power, so we had to explore every avenue possible for people to receive storm warnings (via radio & smart phone). But, in the end, it was sad. One of the saddest days of my life. You have probably heard the term "heavy heart". Mine felt like an anvil. People in my hometown area had suffered a devastating blow. Some lost their homes, while other lost their lives.
From time to time people will tell me that what we did April 27th saved lives. While I appreciate those comments I am still reminded of those that did not survive. How can our coverage be better? That is a question I challenge myself with constantly. For as much technology we have available, we can still be better. One of the most important ways is making sure people are receiving storm warnings. As I mentioned earlier, the massive loss of electrical power on April 27th was limiting how some people were receiving warnings. Without a TV, cell phone or radio, some were left without a source of information. Storm sirens are scarce locally and should only be used as last resort. Having a NOAA weather alert radio is something I have highly recommended for years. Just days after the tornado outbreak the StormTrack 9 Team began a campaign of traveling to communities across the Tennessee Valley promoting the use of these potential life saving radios. Thanks to a partnership with Midland & Walgreens, we have placed over 15,000 new weather alert radios in homes locally. A portion of the proceeds has also gone to local charities for tornado relief. And, one year later, our campaign continues. As I tell everyone, we cannot control the weather, but we can control how we react to severe weather and being better prepared. We will continue those efforts in the weeks and months ahead. It has helped me with the healing process.
One year later, we will still never forget. I will never forget seeing the damage first hand as we toured the area. I will also never forget the resilient spirit of my fellow hometown friends and neighbors. Those who came armed with chainsaws and volunteered countless hours to clear trees. Those who cooked hundreds of meals. Those who helped rebuild. On April 27th, we witnessed the worst in weather. On April 28th, we saw the best in humanity. And we still do today.
David Glenn
Another Cold Night, But Warmer Days Are Ahead
04/23/12
A "March-like" chill continues across the Tennessee Valley through Tuesday morning, but warmer afternoons are ahead!
30s Possible and Even Frost In Spots
Monday night through Tuesday morning should be the coldest period of the next 7 days. Overnight temperatures should drop to the upper 30s around the city, with low/mid 30s possible in outlying areas and mountains. Patchy frost could be a problem in spots. The steady breeze should keep it from being to widespread. Tuesday night will not be as cold as nighttime temperatures will remain in the mid/upper 40s.
Brief Shower Chance Tuesday Night
A few fast moving disturbances in the northerly flow aloft could bring a few showers back Tuesday night. Clouds should increase Tuesday with a few sprinkles possible late. Scattered showers are possible Tuesday Night through early Wednesday morning. No severe weather is expected and rainfall amounts should be light.
Warmer Afternoons Ahead
Temperatures more typical of late April should return by Wednesday afternoon and continue through the start of the weekend. Temperatures should reach the mid 70s Wednesday afternoon and nearing 80 by Thursday and Friday. Some scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers/t-showers are possible both days. Afternoon temps should remain near 80 again Saturday, but cool a bit to the low 70s by Sunday.
Get A New Weather Alert Radio!
The StormTrack 9 Team has programmed nearly 15,000 new Midland Weather Alert Radios since last May. Our tour of the Tennessee Valley continues this Wednesday at the Walgreens in Dunlap from 10am-7pmET. You can also join us next Sunday at the Chattanooga Market from 11am-4pmET. We will have new Midland Weather Alert Radios for sale and our staff will program it for you. You can also bring in any other weather radio that you have and we will be glad to make sure it is properly programmed.
David Glenn
Wet Through Early Wednesday....Rain Returns For The Weekend
04/17/12
Some rainy periods over the next few days and even another shot of cool air.
Wet Through First Half Of Wednesday
A stalled front has kept our weather pattern unsettled and will continue to create periods of rain through Wednesday. The chance of severe weather remains very low, so this is mainly a wet system. Off and on periods of rain will continue through the morning commute Wednesday, then gradually taper off through the afternoon. Rainfall amounts could exceed an inch in many areas across the Tennessee Valley.
Drier & Warmer Through Friday
Drier conditions can be expected Wednesday night through Friday. Cool mornings with temperatures near 50, but each afternoon should be warmer with a mix of sun and clouds. Afternoon highs should reach the upper 70s Thursday and near 80 Friday. More cloud cover should move in through Friday night, but rain chances should remain low until Saturday.
Weekend Rain
A low pressure system is expected to move to our south along the Gulf coast through Saturday and Sunday. This could bring another round of rain and possibly some thunderstorms. The rain/storm chances should increase Saturday morning and into the afternoon. The best chance for severe storms should be along the Gulf coast to our south, but as always we will keep an eye on that. The rain could linger into Sunday before ending late. So, the weekend could be a wet one. Rainfall totals could be in the 0.50"-1.00" range. (See first map below for regional rainfall forecast)
Another Cool Spell
Another brief shot of cooler than normal air could arrive by late weekend which could drop our high temperatures to the 60s and morning lows in the 40s through early next week. The risk of any frost looks small for now.
The long range temperature outlook has us below normal through early next week, followed by above normal temperatures the middle and end of next week. (See second map below)
David Glenn
Warmest March on Record for the United States
04/09/12
We knew it was a warmer than average March, but as it turns out, it was a record breaker for the United States. Here in Chattanooga, our average temperature for the month was 62.9, shattering the old record of 60.8 set back in 1921. Over the course of the month, 3 daily highs were broken with several more tied.
For the country as a whole, the average temperature was 42. Sounds chilly, but considering the average temperature for the country in March is 36, it was well above the average and broke the all time record. The warm weather also caused an increase in severe weather over the course of the month as well. Typically, there are 80 confirmed tornadoes during the third month of the year. This year, there were 223 preliminary tornado reports during that period, almost 3 times the average.
And while we broke 3 record highs here in Chattanooga, the country as a whole toppled a staggering 7,755 records during the month. If you take out Alaska and Hawaii from the statistics, January through March 2012 provided the warmest climatological winter ever for the Contiguous United States.
A Drier & Cooler Pattern
04/06/12
After days and weeks of temperatures feeling more like May & June, a cooler pattern will finally move back in to the Tennessee Valley.
A Dry Weekend
Saturday should be sunny, but temperatures early could be a bit chilly. Morning lows should be in the low 40s and even some upper 30s in the outlying areas. A light touch of frost along the Plateau. Temperatures should rapidly warm into the low 70s by Saturday (60s mountains). Some clouds should move back in through Saturday night with low temperatures in the upper 40s.
Easter Sunday looks dry, but with more cloud cover. Sunrise should be partly cloudy with temperatures in the upper 40s to near 50. Sunday afternoon should have variable clouds with some peeks of sun and afternoon highs returning to the middle 70s.
Even Cooler Next Week
Monday should be partly to mostly cloudy with afternoon temperatures again in the low/mid 70s. But, by Tuesday an even cooler blast of air moves in. As a front dives through the wind should pick up from the north-northwest and usher in some cooler air. High temperatures of Tuesday should stay in the mid/upper 60s along with a breeze. Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning should be quite chilly with temperatures near 40 and even some mid/upper 30s away from the city leading to some possible scattered frost. Temperatures should rapidly recover back to near 70 by next Thursday and Friday along with morning temperatures not as cold.
Frosts Are Still "Seasonal"
It has been several weeks since our temperatures have been frosty. But, the chance of frost by midweek is actually still "seasonal". The average date for a last frost is April 19th. So, while the temperature might be a little below average for next week, it's still not uncommon.
David Glenn
Storm Chances Increase For Wednesday & Thursday
04/03/12
The coverage of showers and storms should increase locally for Wednesday and especially Thursday. Some of the storms could be severe with damaging wind and hail.
"Slight Risk" For Wednesday
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined its "Slight Risk" zone to include the western edge of the viewing area for Wednesday. The overall risk chance is set at 15% for a large part of northern Alabama and middle Tennessee. (See maps below). This means that some storms could produce damaging wind gust and hail. The tornado threat remains low, but not zero. So, we will continue to keep an eye on things both Wednesday and Thursday.
Better Chance Thursday
An upper level low that brought devastating storms to the Dallas area Tuesday, will eventually move our way. This will create a better coverage of showers and possible strong thunderstorms locally through Thursday. The system should weaken a bit by the time it reaches the Tennessee Valley, so probably not duplicating what was seen Tuesday in Dallas. However, the storms locally could still be strong with the risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. Isolated tornadoes can never be ruled out. The risk looks low for now, and we will continue to monitor things!
Storm chances should continue through Thursday night. As the upper "low" moves over the region Friday, periods of rain will still be possible.
Still Looks Dry For The Easter Weekend
Drier and cooler air should filter in by Friday afternoon and continue into the Easter weekend. Expect a return of sunshine both Saturday and Sunday with daily highs in the mid 70s and morning lows in the upper 40s. Sunrise Easter is around 7:20amET and temperatures should be in the upper 40s.
Even cooler air is possible into next week which could push morning lows a little cooler into the low 40s during the week. And, daily highs might be held to the upper 60s/low 70s early next week. So, a possible taste of Dogwood Winter.
David Glenn
The Week Ahead...
04/01/12
The first week of April should remain quite warm, but a gradual increase in thunderstorm activity can be expected as well.
It's Official....March 2012 Was Warmest Ever
March 2012 is now in the record books as the warmest March on record. The average temperature for the month was 62.9 degrees which shatters the old record of March 1921 with an average temperature of 60.8 degrees. There were 3 daily high temperature records set during the month. March 15th was the warmest day with a high of 86.
Mid 80s Continue Through Tuesday
The work week should get off to another very warm start. Afternoon highs both Monday and Tuesday should reach the mid 80s under partly sunny skies. Rain chances remain small and mainly the pop up afternoon and evening variety of t-showers. Morning lows mostly in the upper 50s/lower 60s.
Better Rain & Storm Chances Wednesday & Thursday
Earlier posts have noted the increased chance for showers and storms for midweek. An upper level low pressure system is expected to slowly drift east out of the southern Plains states and through the remainder of the Southeast from mid to late week. This should create a better chance of more widespread showers and storms locally.
As far as our chances of severe storms, the chance is there. Model data is not all that impressive with the overall energy, but that is something that will be analyzed daily. So, for now, our forecast has the chance of some heavy rain Wednesday and Thursday along with a few strong to severe storms. Hail and damaging wind gusts being the main element for now. Isolated tornadoes can never be ruled out, and the risk for now remains low. That is something I will keep an eye on over the next few days. We are in the heart of Spring, so you can depend on us to keep you updated in the days ahead!
David Glenn
Weekend & Long Range Outlook
03/29/12
With the exception of some isolated t-storms Saturday, March will probably go out like a lion!
Warmer Saturday Afternoon
Saturday morning could be cloudy and foggy to begin with. But, as the day goes on we should begin to see a mix of sun and clouds. There will still be a slight chance for a passing pop up t-shower as a front moves through the Tennessee Valley. The coverage of any t-showers should be much less than what we had Friday. Temperatures will also be a little warmer with afternoon highs nearing 80, but 70s on the mountains.
No Fooling, Sunday Looks Nice!
April Fool's Day should not have any tricks from the world of weather. Instead, we should have a dry day under a sunny to partly sunny sky. It will be a little cooler during the morning with temperatures near 50. But, by afternoon, temperatures should rapidly warm back to the mid 80s. The mid 80s should stick around for Monday under a partly sunny Sky.
Keeping An Eye on Tuesday/Wednesday Storm Chances
For several days we have been keeping an eye on a possible system for the early to mid stage of next week. As I stated in an earlier post, there have been a lot of differences in long range forecast models. And, that continued on Friday. The timing of this system has been pushed back a bit more toward the Tuesday night and Wednesday time frame.
The set up is not etched in stone and is still in question. So, it remains to early to determine how strong the system will be and where the best chances of strong storms will develop. But, in our forecast for now, I am including the chance for the possibility of strong to severe storms from late Tuesday through early Thursday. As always, you can depend on us to keep you posted in the days ahead!
Have a great weekend!
David Glenn
Better Chance of T-Showers For Friday
03/29/12
Expect a better chance of scattered t-showers for Friday, with lower chances over the weekend.
T-Showers For Friday
A better chance of scattered showers and storms can be expected for Friday through Friday evening. The chance for widespread severe storms remains low, but a few isolated strong storms are always a slight possibility with Spring storm systems. The latest computer model forecasts do not show a lot of shear and instability which should help keep the severe risk low. The Storm Prediction Center keeps the better chance of organized severe storms to our north. Scattered showers and storms should taper off Friday evening and only slight chances overnight.(See First Map Posted Below)
80s Continue For The Weekend
A very warm pattern will continue through the weekend along with lower chances for t-showers. Saturday should have a mix of sun and clouds with afternoon highs in the low 80s. Some scattered t-showers are possible during the afternoon, but fewer in number than Friday. Sunday looks even warmer with mid 80s and only an isolated chance for a thunderstorm, otherwise partly sunny.
Severe Storms Possible Next Week?
A lot of viewers have emailed me about the chance of severe storms next week. There is the chance for scattered strong thunderstorms on Tuesday, The big question right now is..how strong? There are still some differences in the long range computer forecast models. For example, the GFS model shows two areas of low pressure. One over the Great Lakes, and the other moving through the Tennessee Valley. (See second map posted below). "If" that scenario occurred, then the chance for severe storms and heavy rain goes up. However, the European Model (ECMWF), only has one low pressure system over the Great Lakes and not a second one farther south. (See third map posted below) "If" that scenario occurred, there could still be some storms Tuesday with the passage of a cold front, but not as strong as the forecast from the GFS.
So, we will keep an eye on this system and it's still too early to get specific. Temperatures will be a little cooler after the front passes with highs dropping to the upper 60s/lower 70s by next Wednesday and Thursday, along with morning lows in the 40s....A little taste of Dogwood Winter!
David Glenn
March 2012 Still On Record Pace
03/27/12
March 2012 is still on pace to be the warmest March on record in Chattanooga.
Closing In On The Record
The average temperature so far in Chattanooga for March 2012 is 61.9 degrees. So far, this tops the current record warmest of March 1921 with an average of 60.8 degrees. With just 4 days left in the month and temperatures remaining above normal, it's appearing likely that March 2012 will be the new record holder.
Any Signs Of An April Chill?
Well, with the dogwoods in bloom, naturally we keep looking over our shoulders for "dogwood winter".
Temperatures should remain above normal through the upcoming weekend. See the first map which illustrates the GFS model outlook of temperatures remaining above normal through Saturday (Click the 1st map for a larger view)
Most long range model projections begin to show the possibility of a trough developing in the eastern US. This could occur during the first 10 days of April and could mean some chilly nights (or dogwood winter possibly). The second map illustrates the GFS model outlook for the end of next week to possibly have temperatures averaging a little below normal locally and regionally. (Click on 2nd map for a larger view)
Likewise, the official NOAA 6-10 day temperature outlook agrees with this and has our average temperatures easing back a bit from above normal to normal. Even a little below normal to our east. (Click on the 3rd map for a larger view)
As always, you can depend on us to keep you updated!
David Glenn
Warmer Weather Stays In Place
03/26/12
We've been talking about above average temperatures for so long now that you may be wondering just how much longer they'll last. While there are many driving forces behind our weather pattern, La Nina is the dominant feature at this time. Typically, when La Nina is strong, our temperatures are warmer than average during this time of year. For the record, average highs in late March are around 67-68 and average lows are 43-44.
While La Nina is slowly weakening, NOAA is forecasting the warmer than average temperatures to last throughout April and beyond. The two graphics show that our chances for warmer temperatures will continue through April. Keep in mind that the graphic shows the chance is there for above average temperatures to continue; it doesn't necessarily mean that temperatures will stay well above average. Our precipitation outlook shows equal chances for above or below average amounts through the month of April.
La Nina isn't forecast to dissipate until the fall so it appears the chances for warmer weather will remain throughout the summer. But another thing to realize is that doesn't necessarily mean 100 degree days this summer. The forecast calls for above average temperatures, but doesn't forecast just how warm those temperatures could be.
Weekend & Long Range Outlook
03/23/12
Scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday, but Sunday should be drier.
Some Storms Possible Saturday
An upper level "low" will slide across Tennessee Saturday. This should help to destabilize the atmosphere and could spark the development of some showers and storms during the afternoon and evening. The upper "low" will also lower the freezing level in altitude aloft. This means that some storms will be capable of producing hail,
Expect high temperatures on Saturday in the lower 70s. Most shower and storm activity should end Saturday evening, followed by a partly cloudy sky. Temperatures will also be a little cooler by Sunday morning ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Drier Sunday
Sunday should be a nicer day as dry air filters in behind the departing upper "low". Expect a mix of clouds and some sun with afternoon temperatures in the low/mid 70s and possibly only upper 60s mountains. A steady breeze from the northwest at 10-15mph will also make it feel even cooler. Temperatures Sunday night should dip to the mid/upper 40s overnight.
Dry, Warmer Start To The Upcoming Week
The upcoming work week should be very nice to begin with. Sunny to partly sunny both Monday and Tuesday with daily highs in the mid/upper 70s and morning lows near 50. There is a slight chance of showers on Wednesday with highs again in the mid 70s. More clouds, but only slim rain chances Thursday and Friday with daily highs in the upper 70s and morning lows in the low 50s.
Record Warm March?
We continue to be on record pace for the warmest March ever recorded in Chattanooga. As of this posting, the average temperature for March 2012 so far is 61.6 degrees. This continues to be above the current record holder of March, 1921 with an average temperature of 60.8 degrees. Temperatures the next 7 days should continue to average above normal, so the record could be officially topped on the 31st.
Longer Range Continues To Be Warmer Than Normal
We continue to be on "Dogwood Winter" Watch as everything is in full bloom. Usually a cool spell follows, but so far there are no signs of threatening frosts or freezes the next 7-10 days. NOAA outlooks are in general agreement with model data showing a continuation of above normal temperatures the next 7-14 days. Temperatures may not be near the record levels of this past week, but still above the seasonal average.
Storm Prediction Center Takes Us Out Of Slight Risk Today
03/23/12
No longer in the slight risk for today, but some thunderstorms still expected today.
Showers and Some Thunderstorms Possible Through Tonight
03/12/12
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the Tennessee Valley through this afternoon and into the evening hours. The risk for severe storms remains low, but as awlways we will keep an eye on this through tonight.
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